3 Weeks, 3 Huge Flops — Summer Box Office Already In Trouble

For the movie business, the summer season is everything. Like Christmas for retailers, May, June, July and August are Filmdom’s make or break months. A bad summer generally means a bad year, and although we are just three weeks in, thanks to three high-profile flops, 2017 is already looking like a no good, very bad year. Moreover, a look at the rest of the summer slate does not bode well, including an unusually desolate August.

Let’s start with the flops…

Director Guy Ritchie’s King Arthur could not have scored a better release date. Early to mid-May is as good as it gets with movie-goers primes to get their summer-movie on. Nevertheless, King Arthur didn’t just bomb, it BOMBED with a disastrous $15.3 million opening weekend. Over two weekends now, this wannabe franchise not only sits at a measly $27.2 million, it is even pacing well-behind another bomb named King Arthur, the 2004 travesty directed by Antoine Fuqua. Even the overseas receipts can’t save a movie that cost $175 million to produce and probably another $75 million to promote.

Because theaters take a cut of ticket sales, the accepted formula for profitability is that the box office gross must double the production/promotion budget. However, because China takes 75% of all receipts and is now such a big part of the international box office, that formula is actually tougher these days. But for the sake of simplicity we will stick to the old formula and say that this latest retelling of the Arthur legend will need to clear $500 million for Warner Bros. to break even. So far King Arthur has grossed just $93.4 million worldwide, which means the studio could lose upwards of $100 million.

Released that same weekend was flop numero dos, the Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn disaster Snatched, which over two weekends has grossed just $32.7 million. Comedies don’t sell as well to overseas audiences who desire big-budget spectacle and don’t really get American humor, so this dud probably won’t come close to clearing the $140 million or so needed to break even. After a just-okay opening, Snatched jumped over a cliff in its second weekend with a -61% drop.

This weekend, what looked like a sure-fire smash in concept disappointed bigtime. Alien: Covenant just barely made it to first base with an anemic $36 million opening, well below the expected $40 – $45 million. Two things bode poorly for its future, both of them having to do with the word-of-mouth necessary to save the franchise over the long-term. Director Ridley Scott’s sequel/prequel (it’s complicated) scored only a “B” with audiences and the drop-off between Saturday and Sunday was huge. Simply put, people do not appear to like the movie and are saying so.

For context, Prometheus opened to $51 million before flaming out at $126 million domestic. Even Alien v. Predator opened higher in 2004, with $38.3 million, before flaming out at $80.2 million domestic. Not only is the $150 million Alien: Covenant in trouble, so is a franchise 20th Century-Fox was counting on for at least 2 more sequels.

And so, according to ComScore, this summer is already pacing -10% behind last summer.

But-but-but it’s early, right?

We still have a long way to go, right?

Hope springs eternal, right?

Yeah, maybe not.

Let’s start with the fact that while both are already certified successes, neither Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 nor The Fate of the Furious are over-performing. Guardians is doing a tad better than hoped. If anything, though, Fate is doing a tad worse. As of yet there are no shockers, no sleepers, no big box office surprises that came out of nowhere (like the first Guardians) to indicate movie-going enthusiasm.

So… Is this the year American audiences tire of hollow spectacle, sequels and all-things CGI?

Well, in about 4 short days, with the release of Pirates of the Caribbean 5, we are about to find out.

With Guardians finally slowing down and Alien: Covenant already on life support, Johnny Depp’s iconic Captain Jack Sparrow will only have Dwayne Johnson’s R-rated Baywatch for competition. Six years ago, Baywatch probably would have gotten out of the way. But in the half-decade since Pirates 4, a lot has happened. To begin with Pirates 4 made just $241 million domestic, compared to $310 million for its immediate predecessor. Then there is the issue of Depp’s personal marital and financial scandals, combined with his 6 astounding years of big-budget flops. There is no question that some of the shine is off Deep or that the Pirates franchise feels awfully creaky.

On June 2, Wonder Woman finally arrives. Part of the Warner Bros. DC franchise, this is expected to do well. Gal Godot’s heroine was by far the best part of Superman vs. Batman. The following weekend another franchise is on the line when Tom Cruise’s The Mummy finally arrives. Universal is hoping to recreate the magic of its 85-year-old monster universe. Unfortunately, the trailers are not very good and I’m not sensing a whole lot of enthusiasm.

As a big Tom Cruise fan, a lifelong super-fan of the original Universal horror series, and someone who has seen Brendan Fraser’s The Mummy (1999) about 20 times, I am feeling nothing towards this reboot.

Finally, we now come to the good news…

With Transformers 5, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk, July is looking pretty sweet. Michael Bay’s Transformers franchise is critic-proof. My only caveat would be its tie-in to…believe it or not…the King Arthur legend.

Christopher Nolan’s historical epic Dunkirk looks like the kind of counter-intuitive summer release that could over-achieve, as does the following weekend’s wide-release, Charlize Theron’s Atomic Blonde. The trailer plays like gangbusters, like John Wick with hot girl-on-girl action; where do I get in line?

Then comes August, which is looking like a wasteland.

Why?

Other than The Dark Tower, which smells like a bloated dud, and Kathryn Bigelow’s historical-epic Detroit, which is about that city’s 50 year-old race riots, the rest of the month looks like a February or a September — a dumping ground. Last year in August there was Suicide Squad and Sausage Party. In 2015 there was Straight Outta Compton and two serious swings (and misses) with The Man From U.N.C.L.E and Fantastic Four.

This year, Hollywood appears to have already given August up for dead.

If you are looking for something to blame for the state of movies today — all sequels, prequels, reboots, re-imaginings, franchises and universes — blame the international box office, most especially China. Fifteen years ago the studios believed a burgeoning overseas audience was the key to sure-fire profitability. Better still, these elite leftists were thrilled at the idea that they would no longer need to cater to the rubes in Middle America. After all, international audiences are so much more sophisticated.

Hollywood is now in a box of its own making. Oh, it got what it wished for. The overseas box office is a money machine. But to appeal to as broad a world population as possible, everything must be King Arthur, a massive and risky $250 million gamble on CGI spectacle that can make-or-break a studio’s year. Also, as it turns out, those oh-so sophisticated overseas audiences hate anti-American movies as much as we do.

Yep, the tail is wagging the dog.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.