Democratic presidential campaigns and Nevada election volunteers have been anonymously expressing fears about the upcoming Nevada caucuses, leaving many Democrats wondering whether the state party can overcome the shadow cast by the Iowa fiasco earlier this month. 
According to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns-warn-of-chaos-ahead-of-the-nevada-caucuses/2020/02/16/ef78ef52-50c8-11ea-929a-64efa7482a77_story.html">Washington Post</a>, as the Nevada Democratic party has decided to buck two apps developed by the tech company responsible for the Iowa app, campaigns have been in the dark about how certain aspects of the caucuses will function — only days before the caucuses are set to begin. 
“It feels like the [state party is] making it up as they go along,” said one Democratic campaign aide, reports the news agency. “That’s not how we need to be running an election.”
“If the party had this process well defined and had confidence in it, I think that we’d know a lot more about it,” said another aide, echoing the sentiments that other campaign staffers expressed to the news agency. Another aide said that their respective campaign has “been learning more about this process from the media than the state party or the DNC.”
In a statement to the Post, DNC spokesperson Xochitl Hinojosa said that the “Nevada State Democratic Party and the DNC are in regular communication with campaigns and will continue to answer questions about the process in the state and the nominating process.” 
Hinojosa also declared that the party remains “confident that they are doing everything they can to implement lessons learned in Iowa, and we have deployed staff to help across the board, including tech support and volunteer recruitment,” reports the news agency.
According to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/16/nevada-avoid-iowa-caucus-mess-115437">Politico</a>, volunteers for the Nevada caucuses have also been expressing concern about the upcoming election, saying that it could result in a disaster. 
Some volunteers have told the news agency that the state Democratic party hasn’t trained them how to use the iPads the party bought specifically for tallying caucus results. Another volunteer has since predicted that the caucuses will be a “complete disaster,” and another senior volunteer told the news agency that early voting, which began Saturday, was “disastrous” due to the lack of iPad training. 
Politico has also discovered “conflicting information” in the manuals the party has given to precinct chairs: 
<blockquote>According to screenshots of manuals provided to precinct chairs, the guidelines do not make clear that a candidate who falls short of the 15 percent viability threshold can get there on the second alignment. They can do so by courting supporters of other candidates who fail to make it in the first round.
The manual provides conflicting information: In one instance, it states that supporters of “non-viable” candidates can “join or form” a viable candidate. But in another instance, the manual implies that supporters of non-viable candidates can only switch to a viable candidate.
“Allow up to 15 minutes for non-viable preference group members to align with their second choice,” the manual reads. “People in non-viable groups can choose not to realign, however they will not be awarded any delegates.”</blockquote>
In response to the Washington Post allegation that one campaign aide “feels like [the state party is] making it up as they go along,” Congresswoman Dina Titus (D-NV) told <a href="https://video.foxnews.com/v/6133197298001#sp=show-clips">Fox News</a> that although the state party had “to make some changes,” they had “learned from Iowa” and didn’t foresee any serious problems.

Voters Go To The Polls In Florida Primary

DNC ‘Confident’ Ahead Of Nevada Caucuses. Campaigns, Volunteers Remain Worried: Impending ‘Disaster’

Democratic Party

Nevada

On Friday, a <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/">new poll</a> from Las Vegas Review-Journal and AARP Nevada was released showing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the lead.
The poll, which was conducted between February 11 &#8211; 13 by WPA Intelligence and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%, asked “413 likely caucus attendees” the following question: “If the Democratic caucuses for nomination for U.S. president were held today, for whom would you vote?”
25% of respondents said that they would vote for Sanders. In second place with 18% support was former Vice President Joe Biden. Third place went to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 13%. Rounding out the top six were billionaire Tom Steyer with 11%, and Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) tied with 10% each.
It should be noted that 13% of those surveyed were “undecided” or for “other” candidates.
According to the <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/">Las Vegas Review-Journal</a>, WPA research director Trevor Smith said that the debate on Wednesday might have some impact, but possibly nothing significant, given the timing and early voting.
The progressive block is pretty locked up, according to Smith.
“He noted that Sanders had a firm grip on voters who identified as very liberal (33 percent for Sanders) and somewhat liberal (31 percent),” reports the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Warren is competing for the very liberal with 32 percent of their support, but not anywhere else.”
As for Buttigieg, though he is polling at just 10%, his “support in the poll was evenly split among very liberal (14 percent), somewhat liberal (9 percent) and moderate (11 percent) voters,” showing a cross-ideology appeal.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the poll was that for 56% of respondents, stopping President Trump was priority number one, while Medicare for All was in second with just 9%.
Sanders has been able to ride a wave of Democratic voter enthusiasm despite the Iowa Caucus debacle, which initially looked like it could have sucked the oxygen from his campaign.
In Iowa, Buttigieg narrowly beat out Sanders by 0.1% (26.2% to 26.1%), and was awarded 13 delegates to Sanders’ 12 delegates, according to the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=iowa+caucus+results&amp;rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS876US876&amp;oq=iowa+cau&amp;aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0j69i59j69i60l2j69i61.3492j0j7&amp;hl=en-US&amp;sourceid=chrome-mobile&amp;ie=UTF-8">Associated Press</a>, despite Sanders appearing to win the <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/">popular vote</a>.
Sanders went on to win the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS876US876&amp;hl=en-US&amp;sxsrf=ACYBGNT9uhdYdLp3hvMoMhbs7J-GI91QlA%3A1581889998465&amp;ei=zrlJXt2FHJOrytMPmvKJqAk&amp;q=new+hampshire+primary+results&amp;oq=new+hampshire+primary+&amp;gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.1.1.35i39j0i131l2j0j0i131j0i20i263j0i67j0i131.1582.1582..2646...0.1..0.256.256.2-1......0....1.........0i71.MZypSaGX0aQ">New Hampshire primary</a> with 25.7% of the vote to second place Pete Buttigieg’s 24.4% and third place Amy Klubuchar’s 19.8%.
Prior to this latest Nevada poll (as well as one taken in January), surveys showed Joe Biden with a commanding lead dating back to August 2019. Now, according to the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html">RealClearPolitics</a> average, Sanders sits atop the field by a margin of 3%.
In South Carolina, where Biden needs to do well in order to continue in the Democratic race, new polls show the former vice president falling, with Sanders and Steyer rising. South Carolinians go to the polls on February 29.
Following South Carolina is Super Tuesday, where 14 states and one territory will hold their primaries and caucuses. As of publication (and the polling in many of these states isn’t fresh), Sanders <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html">leads</a> in California, Utah, and Colorado. Biden <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/SuperTuesday.html">leads</a> in Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, and Oklahoma.
The results in Nevada and South Carolina will certainly have an impact on those numbers moving forward.

Sen. Bernie Sanders

POLL: Sanders Leads In Nevada By 7%

2020 Election

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Pete Buttigieg

Former Vice President Joe Biden is not happy that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) supporters have been attacking members of one of Nevada&#8217;s biggest unions, the Nevada Culinary Union, over that union&#8217;s decision to forgo endorsing a Democratic candidate &#8212; and Biden wants the Sanders supporters named and shamed.
<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-calls-out-sanders-after-supporters-reportedly-targeted-union-find-out-who-the-hell-they-are">Fox News reports</a> that Biden said Sanders has &#8220;accountability&#8221; for the way his supporters treat voters on NBC&#8217;s &#8220;Meet the Press&#8221; Sunday morning, adding that he would &#8220;disown&#8221; any of his supporters who threatened fellow Democrats.
“He may not be responsible for it, but he has some accountability,” Biden told the Sunday morning news program. “You know me well enough to know if any of my supporters did that, I’d disown them. Flat disown them. The stuff that was said online. The way they threatened these two women who are leaders in that Culinary union. It is outrageous.&#8221;
Biden went even further, though, encouraging Sanders to hunt out his errant supporters and ensure none of them are involved in his campaign &#8212; a difficult task for a grassroots presidential operation with arms in many states and perhaps thousands of volunteers. Sanders has not taken his response that far, saying in statements only that he abhors “harassment in all forms” and encouraging “supporters of all campaigns not to engage in bullying or ugly personal attacks.”
“And to say I disassociate is one thing. Find out who the hell they are, if any of them work for me, fire them. Find out, see what’s going on,” Biden added.
The dustup started last week when Nevada&#8217;s Culinary Union, which might typically endorse a pro-worker&#8217;s rights candidate like Sanders for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, instead <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/13/nevadas-powerful-culinary-union-declines-to-endorse-a-2020-candidate-115019">declined to issue an endorsement</a> in the all-important Nevada caucuses, which take place next weekend.
The group then released a flier to its membership &#8212; some 60,000 hotel and casino workers, many of them minorities &#8212; deriding Sanders, in both English and Spanish, for looking to “end culinary health care” with his Medicare for All Plan, which would supercede benefits the union had worked hard to get for its members. The document added that &#8220;presidential candidates suggesting forcing millions of hardworking people to give up their health care creates unnecessary division between workers, and will give us four more years of Trump&#8221; &#8212; clearly a jab at Sanders.
In response, the so-called &#8220;Bernie Bros&#8221; &#8212; Sanders&#8217; volunteer army of supporters on social media &#8212; targeted officers of the Culinary Union directly, burying them under an avalanche of profane, often racist and sexist hate mail, <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/culinary-union-officials-face-profanity-laced-attacks-after-scorecard-says-sanders-would-end-their-health-care">per the Nevada Independent</a>. They received &#8220;dozens of phone calls, more than 300 emails and thousands of tweets&#8221; in the two days following their decision.
&#8220;In tweets, the union and its leadership have been referred to as &#8216;bitches,&#8217; &#8216;whore,&#8217; &#8216;fucking scab&#8217; and &#8216;evil, entitled assholes,'&#8221; among other things, according to the state-based outlet.
“This is your chance to fix your mistake before the millions and millions of Bernie Sanders supporters will find you and end your ability to earn a living,” one email, sent to a Culinary Union official read. “We will find you corrupt mother fuckers of that you can be sure and we will make sure you wallow in poverty and suffering. Apologize and fix your mistake or else you will pay … I know tens of thousands of Bernie supporters and we will come after you fascist imbeciles. #Bernie2020 #NotMeUs.”
Sanders supporters saw the Union&#8217;s decision as an underhanded effort to kneecap the Vermont socialist in the Nevada caucuses, and they are likely right. The Culinary Union has close ties to powerful former Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, who remains a power player in the state, wielding the votes of casino workers to help more establishment Democrats like Joe Biden, <a href="https://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/jul/04/harry-reid-culinary-union-general-election/">according to the Las Vegas Sun</a>.
The Culinary Union works hard to get its 60,000 members to the caucuses &#8212; and they can do a lot of damage. In 2016, for example, the &#8220;Harry Reid-Culinary Union machine&#8221; mobilized tens of thousands of caucus-goers in Nevada to vote for Hillary Clinton, who was in trouble after losing first the Iowa popular vote and then the New Hampshire primary to Sanders. Reid&#8217;s efforts created a &#8220;firewall&#8221; for Clinton, stopping Sanders&#8217; rise dead in its tracks.
&#8220;The week before the caucuses, Reid called D. Taylor, head of Culinary’s parent union, to make sure members (generally thought to be pro-Clinton) would be encouraged to turn out. Reid also spoke with the heads of several Strip resorts to push for workers to be allowed time off to caucus,&#8221; the Sun reported back in 2016. &#8220;The Culinary Union had planned to message its workers about the caucuses, but Reid’s call to Taylor served as a &#8216;reconfirmation,&#8217; said Yvanna Cancela, the union’s political director.&#8221;
Cancela went on to use the Culinary Union&#8217;s power for herself. She&#8217;s now a state senator and has endorsed &#8212; to perhaps no one&#8217;s surprise &#8212; former Vice President Joe Biden.

Joe Biden Freaks Out Over Bernie Sanders Supporters Threatening Nevada Workers: ‘Find Out Who The Hell They Are!’

Harry Reid

A politically powerful union in Nevada said on Wednesday that its members were &#8220;viciously attacked&#8221; by far-left supporters of socialist Bernie Sanders after the union warned members against backing candidates that support the socialist program known as &#8220;Medicare-for-All.&#8221;
The Culinary Union released a flyer this week that said that &#8220;Sanders, if elected president, would &#8216;end Culinary Healthcare,&#8217; &#8216;require ‘Medicare For All,’&#8217; and &#8216;lower drug prices,'&#8221; The Nevada Independent <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/in-new-flyer-culinary-union-warns-members-sanders-would-end-their-health-care-if-elected-president">reported</a>. &#8220;The Culinary Union, which provides health insurance to 130,000 workers and their family members through a special trust fund, strongly opposes Medicare for all on the basis that it would eliminate the health insurance they have negotiated for over several decades. Health insurance provided by the Culinary Health Fund is considered to be some of the best in the state, and the union even opened a 60,000-square-foot state-of-the-art health clinic a couple of years ago for its members.&#8221;
In a statement, the Culinary Union condemned the attacks that it says that it received from Sanders&#8217; supporters.
&#8220;We have welcomed Senator Bernie Sanders into our union for a town hall with Culinary Union members, and we hosted tours of the Culinary Health Center and the Culinary Academy of Las Vegas with Senator Sanders, to show what we have fought for and won,&#8221; the statement said. &#8220;Our union believes that everyone has the right to good healthcare and that healthcare should be a right, not a privilege. We have already enacted a vision for what working people need &#8211; and it exists now. Workers should have the right to choose to keep the healthcare Culinary Union members have built, sacrificed for, and went on strike for 6 years, 4 months, and 10 days to protect.&#8221;
&#8220;It’s disappointing that Senator Sanders’ supporters have viciously attacked the Culinary Union and working families in Nevada simply because our union has provided facts on what certain healthcare proposals might do to take away the system of care we have built over 8 decades,&#8221; the statement continued. &#8220;We have always stood up for what we believe in and will continue to do so. &#8230; Together, we will figure out the best way to fix healthcare in America, and the Culinary Union is committed to fighting until we win for everyone.&#8221;
Sanders&#8217; supporters have been widely criticized by numerous media publications and other politicians for their vicious attacks on other Democrats.
In a series of brutal remarks about Sanders, two-time failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton repeatedly attacked his supporters.
“It’s not only him, it’s the culture around him. It’s his leadership team,&#8221; Clinton said. &#8220;It’s his prominent supporters. It’s his online Bernie Bros and their relentless attacks on lots of his competitors, particularly the women.”
“And I really hope people are paying attention to that because it should be worrisome that he has permitted this culture — not only permitted, [he] seems to really be very much supporting it,” Clinton continued. “And I don’t think we want to go down that road again where you campaign by insult and attack and maybe you try to get some distance from it, but you either don’t know what your campaign and supporters are doing or you’re just giving them a wink and you want them to go after Kamala [Harris] or after Elizabeth [Warren]. I think that that’s a pattern that people should take into account when they make their decisions.”
CNN further <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/bernie-sanders-social-media-attacks-invs/index.html">highlighted</a> just some of Sanders&#8217; supporters vicious attacks on others:
<blockquote>On Twitter, Sanders supporters lobbed hundreds of critical messages at the Working Families Party or its leadership, which included personal attacks that called them &#8220;corrupt,&#8221; &#8220;shameless&#8221; and &#8220;bloodless scumbag hacks.&#8221; One pro-Sanders account tweeted that &#8220;slave masters&#8221; had coerced the support of the party&#8217;s national director, who is African American.
Three days after the endorsement, a WFP spokeswoman tweeted a screenshot of one message that wished she and her colleagues would &#8220;all get cancer you are f**king trash.&#8221; She also said they received private messages saying &#8220;eat sh*t and die&#8221; and &#8220;drop dead dumb c*nts.&#8221;</blockquote>
Weighing in on the impact that Sanders’ supporters are having on the election, MSNBC contributor Sam Stein <a href="https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1227737071223263233">wrote</a>: “I&#8217;m not sure Sanders official team has grasped the extent to which their supporters are impacting voter behavior. Lots of people at Warren and Pete town halls I talked to were weighing a Sanders vote but said they were turned off by the culture and crowds”

US-POLITICS-VOTE-DEMOCRATS-NEW-HAMPSHIRE-PRIMARY-SANDERS

Powerful Nevada Union Says Its Members Were ‘Viciously Attacked’ By Bernie Supporters

Rising Nevada Republican congressional candidate Lisa Sutton raised more money during the third quarter than any of the other six Republican primary challengers that she faces in Nevada&#8217;s 4th Congressional District.
Sutton, 34, entered the race during the third quarter and raised more money during the first 90 days of her campaign than any of the other candidates did in their first 90 days and had the highest fundraising quarter overall out of all the Republican candidates.
During the third quarter, the seven GOP candidates raised:
<ol>
<li>Lisa Song Sutton: $127,998.00</li>
<li>Samuel Peters: $111,704.00</li>
<li>Charles Navarro: $80,013.00</li>
<li>Jim Merchant: $58,185.00</li>
<li>Randi Reed: $ 47,595.00</li>
<li>Leo Blundo: $45,398.00</li>
<li>Catherine Prato: $29,585</li>
</ol>
The seven GOP candidates&#8217; first 90 days of fundraising:
<ol>
<li>Lisa Song Sutton: $127,998.00</li>
<li>Randi Reed: $ 47,595.00</li>
<li>Leo Blundo: $45,398.00</li>
<li>Catherine Prato: $29,585</li>
<li>Charles Navarro: $17,850.00</li>
<li>Jim Merchant: $14,647.00</li>
<li>Samuel Peters: $5,000.00</li>
</ol>
The seven GOP candidates&#8217; top fundraising quarter earnings:
<ol>
<li>Lisa Song Sutton: $127,998.00</li>
<li>Samuel Peters: $111,704.00</li>
<li>Jim Merchant: $103,790.00</li>
<li>Charles Navarro: $80,013.00</li>
<li>Randi Reed: $ 47,595.00</li>
<li>Leo Blundo: $45,398.00</li>
<li>Catherine Prato: $29,585</li>
</ol>
Sutton, a business owner and former Miss Nevada United States, has a law degree from the University of Miami and is a self-described lifelong Republican.
“I’m incredibly grateful for the momentum my campaign has received in the first 90 days,” Sutton said in a statement. “I’m a business leader, not a politician, and I have shown in my first quarter that we can raise the money to build the grassroots political support needed to challenge Steven Horsford in the general election.”
“Our wide base of support shows Nevada’s 4th Congressional District is eager to elect a Republican who is a young, female, minority, business leader to Congress. The community is tired of career politicians running for office in districts they don’t care about,” Sutton continued. “I’m here to show the community, and Washington, that I will outwork career politician Steven Horsford, and take back Nevada’s 4th Congressional district.”
Sutton&#8217;s campaign noted that since she announced her candidacy in July 2019, &#8220;Sutton raised $107,998 in money and in-kind donations, plus a personal contribution of $20,000, for a total of $127,998 in campaign receipts in her first quarter of declaring. Her campaign has raised money from nearly 200 individual donors throughout Nevada and across the country, showing widespread support for her candidacy.&#8221;
&#8220;Sutton’s support ranges from traditional Nevada Republican donors, to first-time federal campaign donors,&#8221; the statement concluded. &#8220;The average small-dollar online donation was $58. This wide range of support shows her campaign is able to bring new donors to the Republican party. Her ability to expand beyond the traditional base of supporters and win over a majority-minority house district are anchors to Sutton’s success.&#8221;
Sutton, whose father is a Vietnam veteran and mother a Korean immigrant, told The Daily Wire in an interview last month that small businesses, cutting regulations, the U.S. military, immigrant enforcement, border security, and the Second Amendment were among the issues that were the most important to her.
&#8220;Politics was never in the plan for me. I have previously been focused on my companies and community work,&#8221; Sutton told The Daily Wire. &#8220;However, when I opened the second location of my shipping store last year, I saw how much need was in the community. People have no access to basic amenities, like grocery stores. Veterans aren’t being served, and the community is forgotten.&#8221;
&#8220;This area in the District opened my eyes to a larger problem: communities not being served by career politicians,&#8221; Sutton continued. &#8220;This, coupled with my own examination of our state representatives, and realizing that we don’t have a voice for business owners, we don’t have a voice for millennials, and we don’t have a voice of someone actually engaged in the community, I knew I had to step up.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/former-miss-nevada-daughter-immigrant-launches-gop-ryan-saavedra">Read the rest of Sutton&#8217;s exclusive interview with The Daily Wire.</a>

Lisa Sutton

Rising GOP Congressional Candidate Lisa Sutton Dominates Fundraising Efforts In Primary

Republican Party

Matty Roberts, the California man who launched the viral internet joke &#8220;Storm Area 51&#8221; over the summer, has officially pulled all his involvement from the planned event amid safety concerns.
This past July, the &#8220;Storm Area 51&#8221; Facebook page became a viral sensation, attracting three million people pledging to attend — with another 1.4 million expressing interest.
&#8220;We will all meet up at the Area 51 Alien Center tourist attraction and coordinate our entry. If we naruto run, we can move faster than their bullets. Let&#8217;s see them aliens,&#8221; the page said.
Though Roberts meant it as a joke, the United States government took it as no laughing matter and immediately issued a warning to those believing they could &#8220;naruto run&#8221; their way into the top-secret facility.
&#8220;[Area 51] is an open training range for the U.S. Air Force, and we would discourage anyone from trying to come into the area where we train American armed forces. &#8230; The U.S. Air Force always stands ready to protect America and its assets,&#8221; Spokeswoman Laura McAndrews of the U.S. Air Force told The Washington Post.
As a result, Roberts decided to host a music festival, aptly named &#8220;AlienStock,&#8221; at the <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/travel/little-aleinn-storm-area-51-nevada" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Little A&#8217;Le&#8217;Inn</a> in Rachel, Nevada, from September 20 – 22. However, after weeks of working with the local municipalities, Roberts decided to withdraw his involvement from the event, fearing it might become a Fyre Fest 2.0, according to <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/science/storm-area-51-creator-leaves-nevada-alien-themed-festival-downtown-las-vegas-event">Fox News</a>.
&#8220;Due to the lack of infrastructure, poor planning, risk management and blatant disregard for the safety of the expected 10,000+ AlienStock attendees, we decided to pull the plug on the festival,&#8221; Roberts said in a statement.
Roberts said he visited the town of Rachel over the weekend and discovered that the infrastructure simply did not exist to support the number of people planning to attend &#8220;AlienStock&#8221; — an event he never intended to become so big.
&#8220;The permit holder (Connie West) was given multiple opportunities to provide us with the proof that things expected at this festival were in place. In fact, she refused to provide to us, as agreed upon, contracts, proof of deposits or any paper proof of anything,&#8221; Roberts told FOX5.
Now that Roberts has pulled out, his representatives told reporters that &#8220;AlienStock&#8221; is officially no longer associated with him in any capacity.
&#8220;We are not interested in, nor will we tolerate any involvement in a FYREFEST 2.0,&#8221; <a href="https://www.fox5vegas.com/news/storm-area-event-creator-pulls-out-of-alienstock-festival-in/article_b263cbc0-d344-11e9-8588-8b20ca3b7d4a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the statement said</a>. &#8220;We foresee a possible humanitarian disaster in the works, and we can’t participate in any capacity at this point.&#8221;
In a statement <a href="http://www.rachel-nevada.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">posted on its website</a> Monday, the town of Rachel agreed that &#8220;AlienStock&#8221; is quickly portending to be a Fyre Fest 2.0 in the making. People planning to attend have instead been asked to visit Area 51-themed events in Las Vegas.
&#8220;The creator of the Storm Area 51 movement pulled out because he feels the event is not safe and lacks organization. With a week and a half to go no preparations have been made and no bands have been signed,&#8221; the statement said. &#8220;If any event still happens it is going to be a pretty sad affair with no bands, very little infrastructure and a lot of unhappy campers.&#8221;
Connie West, the owner of the Little A&#8217;Le&#8217;Inn, told FOX5 that she is sad and brokenhearted the event will not be proceeding as planned. &#8220;I&#8217;m sad and I&#8217;m brokenhearted, but at the same time, it is what it is,&#8221; she said. &#8220;If he chooses to go somewhere else, that&#8217;s his choice. I&#8217;m still having a party because people are still coming to Rachel.&#8221;

Matty Roberts

‘Storm Area 51’ Organizer Pulls Plug On ‘AlienStock’ Music Festival Over Safety Concerns

It has never been clearer that the Electoral College is under systemic assault.
It has become de rigueur for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates to casually <a href="https://www.apnews.com/cf09fdabb90c4d9f8e5639d001aa25ac">excoriate</a> the institution in no uncertain terms, and <a href="https://www.axios.com/electoral-college-2020-presidential-election-candidates-94d89ca6-b402-4de3-ae8e-06139592408e.html">oftentimes</a> vow to eliminate it via constitutional amendment. Furthermore, as The Daily Wire <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/47520/nevada-passes-bill-give-electoral-votes-national-james-barrett">reported</a> this morning, Nevada is the latest state to pass a bill that adds the Silver State to the <a href="https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/">National Popular Vote Interstate Compact</a> (NPV), which, if upheld as constitutional after 270 Electoral College votes&#8217; worth of states join, would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. As I <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/45462/thwarting-tyranny-save-our-states-seeks-protect-josh-hammer">explained</a> last month, the NPV project is largely funded and promoted by partisan Democratic activists, including a California-based computer scientist named <a href="https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/about">John Koza</a>.
The constitutionality of NPV is debatable. Such a backdoor route toward the abolition of a core constitutional structural provision would indubitably violate the Framers&#8217; intent, but the question from a purely textualist perspective is murkier. After all, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articleii">Article II, Section 1, Clause 2</a> of the Constitution seems to provide that state legislatures have plenary power over allocation of their states&#8217; electors: &#8220;Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.&#8221; As long as NPV amounts to a purely voluntary and non-binding compact for each state that joins, constitutionalists would be severely misguided to rely on our <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/44510/hammer-judicial-arrogance-existential-threat-our-josh-hammer">black-robed judicial overlords</a> to save We the People from our own self-inflicted follies.
But NPV ought to be countered on a state-by-state basis, because the Electoral College is an important institution worthy of protection and preservation.
Alexander Hamilton most expressly defended the Electoral College in <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed68.asp">The Federalist No. 68</a>. The Electoral College, Hamilton argued, &#8220;affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.&#8221; Specifically, Hamilton added that &#8220;it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union.&#8221;
More generally, the Constitution&#8217;s Framers envisioned the Electoral College as one of their many structural securities against majoritarian tyranny &#8212; what James Madison described in <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp">The Federalist No. 10</a> as the problem of &#8220;faction&#8221;:
<blockquote>
By a faction, I understand a number of citizens, whether amounting to a majority or a minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adversed to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community.
There are two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one, by removing its causes; the other, by controlling its effects.
</blockquote>
The Electoral College, in attempting to ensure that smaller, more rural states would not be politically overrun by parochial urban interests, was one means by which the Framers sought to &#8220;control[ the] effects&#8221; of faction. Other examples of counter-majoritarian protections abound, and are woven into our constitutional structure: A bicameral legislature at the national level, a senior legislative chamber whose (pre-17th Amendment) state representative nature was intended as a deliberative counterweight to the more populist proclivities of the people&#8217;s more junior legislative chamber, a tripartite separation of powers framework borrowed from the French political theorist Montesquieu, and the uniquely American political innovation of a federalist system of genuine dual sovereignty.
The Daily Wire&#8217;s own Michael Knowles <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/44922/knowles-what-purpose-electoral-college-michael-j-knowles">explained</a> it well on his show in March:
<blockquote>
[The Electoral College] has a few purposes. One, it&#8217;s to restrain pure democracy. Very good, very important, that&#8217;s a wonderful thing. What is another purpose of the electoral college? It doesn&#8217;t just restrain democracy &#8212; let&#8217;s say all of the American people voted for super-duper mecha-Hitler or they elected Stalin Jr. to be president, the Electoral College could then come out and say nope, sorry we are going to disagree with the American people and we&#8217;re going to elect a good candidate, so there&#8217;s that aspect. &#8230; The people participate in votes in their states to choose electors to elect the president, but the people don&#8217;t elect the president. We are not a democracy; we are a democratic republic. We have a representation system of government.
</blockquote>
Rebelling as they did from the tyranny of Britain&#8217;s King George III, the Framers were doubtlessly petrified at the prospect of monarchy &#8212; and all the unpredictability, impulsivity, and tyrannical threats to individual liberty that rule by one necessarily entails. At the same time, the Framers also feared the wrath of unchecked ochlocracy &#8212; the equally petrifying tyranny of mob rule, which is best encapsulated by a plebiscite such as that which NPV aspires to be. Constitutional structural provisions such as the Electoral College and the Senate are not bugs, but features, of the Framers&#8217; genius in securing the people against their own zealous caprices. As Jonah Goldberg succinctly <a href="http://www.aei.org/publication/abolishing-the-electoral-college-would-be-a-mistake/">put it</a>, the Framers understood that &#8220;democracy depends on some undemocratic mechanisms to maintain liberty.&#8221;
At its core, the NPV movement lacks this fundamental, key insight into human nature.
&#8220;If men were angels, no government would be necessary,&#8221; Madison mused in <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed51.asp">The Federalist No. 51</a>. But men are not angels. And because men are not angels, structural constitutional provisions are necessary to chasten the whims of the frothing mob. The Electoral College is one such constitutional mechanism and, as such, it is worth preserving.

HAMMER: The Electoral College Is Under Assault. Here’s Why It’s Worth Saving.

Constitution

Electoral College

Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) lost his battle against a medical device manufacturer this week, and failed to recover from injuries he says he sustained when an exercise band snapped back at him during a workout.
<a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/harry-reid-finishes-testimony-in-trial-over-exercise-band-injuries-1629248/">The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports</a> that it took jurors only an hour to decide that Reid didn&#8217;t deserve the $50,000 he was demanding from Ohio-based Hygenic Intangible Property Holding Co., The Hygenic Corp. and Performance Health LLC, who make the &#8220;TheraBand,&#8221; a large, physical therapy rubber band used, in Reid&#8217;s case, to strengthen arm muscles.
<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/45267/harry-reid-suing-makers-theraband-over-his-eye-emily-zanotti">The Daily Wire reported</a> on the case last month. Reid was claiming that he was using the band as directed, looped around a doorknob in his bathroom, when the band slipped from his grasp and he fell on a marble floor, sustaining &#8220;a concussion, broken orbital bones, severe disfigurement to his face, bruising and lacerations on his face, hand injuries, scarring and broken ribs.&#8221;
The accident left him nearly blind in his right eye, and, according to Reid, was the impetus behind his retirement from the Senate at age 75.
But Reid&#8217;s case wasn&#8217;t even out of opening statements before things started to turn sour for the career Democrat. Opposing counsel repeatedly reiterated that Reid had been instructed by congressional physical trainers to &#8220;improve his foot stance, balance and technique while using the resistance bands at his doctors&#8217; recommendation,&#8221; but hadn&#8217;t followed orders, and that Reid had thrown out the band that had snapped, so he couldn&#8217;t even be sure it was TheraBand brand.
But the real trouble for Reid seemed to be, as the defendant&#8217;s attorney put it, that he couldn&#8217;t keep his stories straight, even under oath: &#8220;The one thing we do know,&#8221; she said, &#8220;is he struggles with telling the truth.&#8221;
There were two problems with Reid&#8217;s story, it seems. One, that he blamed the injuries he sustained from the broken band for ending his career in the Senate, and two, that he told two different stories about how he was using the band when it snapped.
<a href="https://www.apnews.com/7bb982641b354dbea3899629d7ded61f">The Associated Press reports</a> that the defendant&#8217;s attorney hammered home the part about the Senate.
&#8220;Reid testified last week his injuries were &#8216;the main factor&#8217; why he decided not to seek a sixth Senate term in 2016. [The defense attorney], however, showed the jury a 2015 video news release in which Reid said his decision not to run had &#8216;absolutely nothing to do with my injury,'&#8221; the outlet reported.
Reid was 75 years old when he retired from the Senate in 2015, and, at the time, there was no guarantee that he would emerge victorious from another campaign. Democrats were seeking fresh blood in the Senate and, at the time, it was largely considered a safe seat for the Democratic Party, so Reid retired to his home in Searchlight, Nevada. Since then, he&#8217;s been mostly absent from politics, except for the occasional comment on the current state of Democratic leadership.
Reid also, according to the AP, couldn&#8217;t quite remember whether he&#8217;d hooked the band to a metal hook in his bathroom, or through the handle of his shower door, and testified to both.
&#8220;He noted that Reid at first said the band broke, not that it slipped his grasp, and that it had been attached to a metal hook in the wall of the bathroom in his suburban Las Vegas home,&#8221; the AP said. &#8220;On the witness stand, Reid testified he looped a band through a shower door handle, not a hook, and that he spun around and fell face-first against hard-edged bathroom cabinets.&#8221;
Reid blamed the confusion on his &#8220;concussion state,&#8221; <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/harry-reid-finishes-testimony-in-trial-over-exercise-band-injuries-1629248/">according to the Review-Journal</a>.

Harry Reid Loses Battle Against TheraBand, Accused Of Struggling To Tell The Truth

Lawfare

Career &#8220;Burners&#8221; or Burning Man attendees are raging over a Bureau of Land Management environmental impact report that accuses Burning Man of being a major environmental nuisance, and requests the weeklong festival in the Nevada desert take major measures to control trash, drug use, and crowds before expanding to accommodate more attendees.
<a href="https://eplanning.blm.gov/epl-front-office/eplanning/planAndProjectSite.do?methodName=dispatchToPatternPage&amp;currentPageId=139649">The report, released late last week</a>, is more than 400 pages long and comes in response to a request from festival organizers to grow the event to 100,000 attendees by 2022.
In it, BLM accuses Burning Man of becoming lax in enforcing certain rules during the festival, and demands that Burning Man hire a security force to check vehicles entering and exiting the temporary &#8220;Black Rock City&#8221; where the festival is held for weapons, controlled substances, and other terror threats. It also demands that the &#8220;free spirits&#8221; of Burning Man pay for maintenance to a county road only they use, and that they bring in dumpsters so that attendees can dispose of trash in an environmentally safe way.
The report also says Burning Man will need to put a temporary barrier around the festival city to prevent objects from blowing off into the desert.
Burning Man oganizers and attendees are absolutely incensed at the thought of the Bureau of Land Management daring to question their &#8220;stellar&#8221; record of leaving the Black Rock Desert completely untouched. In a series of posts on websites like <a href="https://www.youredm.com/2019/04/05/new-environmental-impact-statement-from-blm-threatens-future-of-burning-man/">YourEDM and BoingBoing</a>, attendees complained that BLM was being utterly unfair in cracking down on the week-long festival that prides itself on a &#8220;Leave No Trace&#8221; policy.
They also do not understand why they need to pay for road maintenance, terrorism control, and environmental impact abatement when Nevada state and county taxpayers aleady supply plenty of funds for playa protection and upkeep.
Organizers called the report &#8220;unreasonable,&#8221; <a href="https://www.chron.com/burningman/article/Burning-Man-Environmental-Impact-Statement-BLM-13704768.php">according to the Houston Chronicle</a>.
&#8220;Our initial assessment of the Draft EIS determined many of the measures recommended by BLM are unreasonable,&#8221; Burning Man staff said in a statement. &#8220;Some are in direct conflict with our community&#8217;s core principles and would forever negatively change the fabric of the Burning Man event.&#8221;
They found paying for upkeep of a road mainly used by Burning Man attendees particularly &#8220;brazen.&#8221;
&#8220;We know of no other instance in the United States where a private entity is required by the federal government to pay for maintenance of a public county road that is also used year-round by residents, tourists, and businesses,&#8221; they said. &#8220;INevada and Washoe County include a gas tax allocated in part for road repair (which participants have contributed to for 29 years) and Burning Man Project is already working closely in collaboration with Washoe County to find a more permanent solution for CR34.&#8221;
The Bureau of Land Management, it appears, disagrees, and referred to the report not as a critical analysis of Burning Man operations but as a way to handle what they say are are ongoing problems with the festival.
The <a href="https://www.rgj.com/story/life/arts/burning-man/2019/04/05/blm-report-highlights-burning-man-environmental-impact-concerns/3294441002/">Reno Gazette-Journal</a>, the paper local to the festival, supports the idea that there are, in fact, issues with the fest. Drug use is fairly common, sure, but a terror threat, the paper says, could result in a &#8220;mass casualty incident&#8221; that might be difficult for emergency personnel to address, since the only road in and out of the festival can sustain no more than 700 vehicles at one time.
Sexual assault at the festival is reportedly on the rise (though all organized sexual activity requires verbal consent to participate), as is air pollution and water use, liquid waste and sewage, and oil leaks. And then there&#8217;s the garbage.
<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4800179/burning-man-trash-2018/">A 2018 report from the Associated Press</a> claims that despite the festival&#8217;s &#8220;Leave No Trace&#8221; policy, there&#8217;s plenty of evidence of Burning Man left after attendees depart. Last year, that debris even included a &#8220;a 747 airplane that was converted into a nightclub then left at the site for weeks.&#8221;
The debate over Burning Man&#8217;s future is ongoing. BLM is reportedly opening the issue to input from festival attendees and interested parties this week.

Burning Man Attendees RAGE After Bureau Of Land Management Blasts Festival’s Environmental Impact

Environmentalism

Former Senator Harry Reid is in a Nevada court this week, suing the makers of TheraBand, a stretchy physical therapy resistance band that he says robbed him of sight in his right eye.
<a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/jurors-hear-opening-statements-in-harry-reids-exercise-injury-trial-video-1626580/">The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports</a> that Reid is suing Ohio-based Hygenic Intangible Property Holding Co., The Hygenic Corp. and Performance Health LLC, for $50,000, claiming that their faulty product caused him to suffer &#8220;a concussion, broken orbital bones, severe disfigurement to his face, bruising and lacerations on his face, hand injuries, scarring and broken ribs.&#8221;
Reid claims that he was doing physical therapy exercises with the TheraBand in his bathroom on New Years Day 2015 when the band slipped from his grasp, and he fell, sustaining major injuries. Two months later, because he was still contending with blindness in his right eye, he says he was forced to retire from his job in the Senate (at age 75).
Reid, now 79 and suffering from pancreatic cancer, has appeared in court, but it&#8217;s not clear whether he will testify; so far, only a few days into the trial, things don&#8217;t seem to be going Reid&#8217;s way.
According to the Associated Press, the lawyer for Hygenic &#8216;told a civil trial jury that congressional exercise advisers tried for months to teach Reid to improve his foot stance, balance and technique while using the resistance bands at his doctors&#8217; recommendation,&#8221; and that Reid was using the band &#8220;improperly&#8221; when he tied it to his shower door.
Reid claimed at the time that the band broke, which is what caused him to fall forward and smash his face on a hard surface, but his lawyers, in their opening statement, agreed with the defendant that Reid was holding the band in his hand when he lost his grip.
&#8220;The evidence will show that he was using a band &#8230; it slipped from the hand, he spun to the right &#8230; and landed right on the eye,&#8221; his attorney said, adding that Reid&#8217;s bathroom was almost entirely clad in marble and granite &#8212; two very unforgiving surfaces.
Worse still, it seems Reid threw the band out after the incident, meaning that no one involved in the lawsuit has the exact item Reid was using, and it&#8217;s not immediately clear that the product was an actual TheraBand manufactured or sold by Hygenic.
Harry Reid has been mostly absent from politics since leaving Congress in 2015, though he has popped in from time to time to comment on President Donald Trump and Special Counsel Robert Mueller&#8217;s now-concluded investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russian officials to impact the 2016 elections.
Just a few days ago, Reid took credit for kicking off concerns about Russian election interference, claiming that he wrote a letter to the FBI in August 2016 trying to force then-FBI director James Comey to take note of Russian interference in American elections.
&#8220;I wrote a letter in August [2016] to the Director of the FBI Comey and said Russia is messing with our elections and you need to do something about that. And by October he had done nothing,&#8221; Reid said, <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/harry-reid-rips-james-comey-for-doing-nothing-about-russian-election-meddling">according to the Washington Examiner</a>. &#8220;We now know he should have done something.&#8221;
Reid claims Comey didn&#8217;t get involved because everyone in Washington, D.C. was under the assumption that Hillary Clinton would sail to an easy victory.

Harry Reid Is Suing The Makers Of TheraBand Over His Eye Injury And It’s Not Going Very Well

Hillary Clinton

Data continue to demonstrate that many Californians are growing weary of their state&#8217;s <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/35528/klavan-california-moves-force-women-boardroom-andrew-klavan">highly regulated</a>, fiscally confiscatory, infamously left-wing governance. As the libertarian Cato Institute <a href="https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/california">noted</a> in its most recent &#8220;Freedom In The 50 States&#8221; rankings:
<blockquote>
California is one of the least free states in the country, largely because of its long-standing poor performance on economic freedom. Given this, it is likely no surprise that the Golden State is the most cronyist state in the union. &#8230;
Despite Proposition 13, California is one of the highest-taxed states in the country. California&#8217;s combined state and local tax collections were 10.8 percent of adjusted personal income. &#8230;Local taxes are about average nationally, while state taxes are well above average. &#8230;
Regulatory policy is even more of a problem for the state than fiscal policy. California is one of the worst states on land-use freedom. Some cities have rent control, new housing supply is tightly restricted in the coastal areas despite high demand, and eminent domain reform has been nugatory. The state even mandates speech protections in privately owned shopping malls. Labor law is anti-employment &#8230;
</blockquote>
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-california-loses-people-a-las-vegas-suburb-grows-11551197094?mod=hp_listb_pos3">profiled</a> the extent to which Californians are increasingly willing to flee their state and its government&#8217;s overbearing nature. The Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-california-loses-people-a-las-vegas-suburb-grows-11551197094?mod=hp_listb_pos3">reports</a>:
<blockquote>
California has been losing more residents than it gains from other states for years, even though its population of 40 million keeps growing from births and foreign immigration.
But the outflow has accelerated lately. Net migration to other parts of the U.S. from the nation&#8217;s largest state was more than 100,000 in 2015, 2016 and 2017, according to the Census Bureau. Total emigration from California to other states between 2006 and 2017 was 1.24 million, according to the Census Bureau, third highest in the nation behind only New York and Illinois.
</blockquote>
One locale where Californians seem to be relocating en masse is the rapidly growing Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, Nevada. As the Journal notes, Henderson&#8217;s population increased 20% over the past decade to more than 300,000 &#8212; which now makes it Nevada&#8217;s second most populous city, surpassing Reno. Incredibly, according to Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles data as reported by the Journal, a whopping 56% of Henderson&#8217;s explosive growth between 2013 and 2017 came in the form of California exiles.
Henderson&#8217;s growth is not without downsides for local citizens. The Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-california-loses-people-a-las-vegas-suburb-grows-11551197094?mod=hp_listb_pos3">continues</a>:
<blockquote>
Henderson is feeling some growing pains from the California influx. Schools are becoming crowded. Enrollment in the Nevada State High School at Henderson rose to 350 from 200 three years ago and is at its full capacity, school officials say.
Two more campuses of the state charter high school system are in the works in Henderson, said John Hawk, chief operations officer for the school district.
</blockquote>
It remains to be seen how Nevada, presently a purple/light blue state, will be politically affected by this influx of disaffected Californians.
But in Texas, the nation&#8217;s most iconic red state, it has recently become a common refrain within conservative political circles to lament their state&#8217;s own influx of Californians. Last September, in the midst of his tight U.S. Senate reelection campaign, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/09/politics/ted-cruz-texas/index.html">warned supporters</a> at a rally that Texans &#8220;are seeing tens of millions of dollars flooding into the state of Texas from liberals all over the country who desperately want to turn the state of Texas blue. They want us to be just like California, right down to tofu and silicon and dyed hair.&#8221;
Today, at National Review, Kevin Williamson <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/california-refugees-flee-to-nevada-texas/">spoke</a> for many conservative Texans when he wrote: &#8220;You crazy Californians are going to love Nevada. Please don&#8217;t come here.&#8221;

EXODUS: California Exiles Are Flocking To Nevada, Data Show

California

Leftism

Progressivism

Taxes

Texas

Some Nevada voters&#8217; dislike of Democrats is so intense that they&#8217;d rather <a href="https://apnews.com/afd73fee87e5442ca72b7179c593089e?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&amp;utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=AP">elect a dead Republican</a> than let a Democrat be elected.
In Nevada&#8217;s 36th Assembly District on Tuesday, a long-standing GOP district, the voters elected Dennis Hof, who owned various brothels in the state, to represent them in the state assembly, rather than Democratic educator Lesia Romanov.
Hof died on October 16 just after celebrating his 72nd birthday for four days. His body was found at his own Love Ranch brothel by porn actor Ron Jeremy and a prostitute. Nye County Sheriff Sharon Wehrly, who also serves as the county&#8217;s coroner, <a href="https://www.apnews.com/d6a66edfe27d4b19b2cfac814ea81a12">said</a> she had seen Hof at his birthday party the night before at a local casino-hotel reception room with over 100 of his friends. She added, &#8220;He was sitting on a stool talking with people when I left about 10. I guess that&#8217;s partying at 72.&#8221; Wehrly said there was no preliminary indication of foul play; an autopsy was scheduled to be done.
In 2016, Hof unsuccessfully ran for the same elective office as a Libertarian against hospital executive James Oscarson. In June, in a rematch, Hof defeated Oscarson in the primary, then celebrated with &#8220;Hollywood Madam&#8221; Heidi Fleiss. He <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/a-wild-conversation-with-the-pimp-who-won-a-nevada-primary-628629/">stated</a>, &#8220;It&#8217;s a bad day for the establishment. They&#8217;re not having fun today. They used every dirty trick they could to keep me out of office. This race was not about me being the brothel baron. It was about taxes and how my opponent raised taxes 29 out of 32 times. That&#8217;s why he got fired. When I came to the Republican party, I said to Michael McDonald, the head of the Republican party, &#8216;I&#8217;m your RINO hunter. I will be hunting these RINOs.&#8217; We got the biggest prize of them all.&#8221;
Hof started his career as a brothel owner by buying The Moonlite BunnyRanch in 1992, then purchased another brothel, Kitty&#8217;s, and renamed it The Love Ranch North. He followed by buying two more brothels; the Cherry Patch, which he renamed the Love Ranch Vegas, and the Cherry Patch II, which he renamed the Alien Cathouse. He was president of the Nevada Brothel Owners Association.
Hof appeared on various talk shows and television shows, including shows hosted by Oprah Winfrey, Howard Stern, and shows such as The Today Show and The View. He <a href="https://www.rgj.com/story/life/2015/06/19/dennis-hof-moonlite-bunny-ranch-brothels-nevada/28982057/">said</a> he had been asked to speak at Oxford University and Trinity College, Dublin.
Another brothel owner <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/legal-pimp-defeats-nevada-lawmaker-070355548.html">already holds elective office</a> in Nevada; Lance Gilman, the owner of the Mustang Ranch in northern Nevada, is a Storey County Commissioner. He was the first owner of a brothel to win election to public office in Nevada since prostitution was legalized there in 1971, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/19/nevada-brothel/1714053/">according</a> to Nevada historian Guy Rocha.
After his book was published, Hof said, &#8220;There are so many interesting subjects with brothels &#8212; the psychology of it, or maybe a business book. Maybe I&#8217;ll have the girls participate, do something (to raise money) for animals &#8230; On my tombstone I want, &#8216;Best friend, fought sex trafficking and world&#8217;s greatest salesman.&#8217;&#8221;

Determined Republicans In Nevada Elect Dead GOP Candidate Over Live Democratic Opponent

In the last few days before the &#8220;most important midterm elections in history,&#8221; pollsters and analysts began to backpedal on their predictions about the much-hyped Blue Wave, which turned out to be merely a solid win in the House and a true Blue Wipe-out in the Senate. On Monday, Politico provided some quotes from pollsters warning the public that &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38016/not-normal-election-have-pollsters-failed-account-james-barrett">this is no normal election</a>&#8221; and suggesting that many of the polls might&#8217;ve failed to calibrate for some unprecedented factors, including a &#8220;staggering&#8221; early voting turnout and a surge in &#8220;non-usual&#8221; voters.
So, with the dust settling, how did pollsters do in some of the key races? In short, they generally underestimated Republican support, again.
After crunching all the most recent polling data, Nate Silver&#8217;s FiveThirtyEight predicted on election morning that Republicans would end up with <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">52 seats</a> in the Senate and Democrats would most likely secure <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/">234</a><a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/"> seats</a>. Both estimates appear to err slightly on the side of Democrats. Republicans are currently poised to end up with 53 and possibly even 54 seats, depending on how Arizona and Colorado shake out (Republicans currently have a slight edge in both with 99% and 84% reporting, respectively). Democrats did make major gains in the House, but appear likely to fall short of Silver&#8217;s prediction.
More notable than the overall number of seat wins and losses is the percentages by which Republicans defeated Democrats in some key races, particularly in the &#8220;toss-up&#8221; Senate and gubernatorial races, which garnered the most national attention. Below is a comparison of some of the polling predictions vs. the electoral results in some key Senate and gubernatorial races.
Florida Governor Race
A vast majority of the polls predicted that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum would win by anywhere from 4 to 7 points over Republican Ron DeSantis. Election morning, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html">Real Clear Politics</a>&#8216; average of the key polls showed Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 3.6 points. The Daily Wire <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38061/obama-backed-rising-star-democrat-falls-trump-james-barrett">reports</a>:
<blockquote>
Quinnipiac&#8217;s poll of 1,142 likely voters (conducted 10/29-11/4) gave Gillum a comfortable 7-point advantage. A HarrisX poll of 1,400 likely voters conducted over the same period found Gillum leading by 4 points. An Emerson poll of 748 likely voters (conducted 11/1-3) gave the Democrat a 5-point edge, as did St. Pete Polls&#8217; survey of 3,088 likely voters (conducted 11/3-4). Only one of the polls factored into Real Clear Politics&#8217; average gave DeSantis an advantage: Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group polled 1,484 likely voters during the final two days before the election and found DeSantis with a 3-point lead.
</blockquote>
Gillum ended up losing by 1 point to DeSantis. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/fl">NBC News</a> lists the current vote count at 99% reporting, DeSantis earning 4,052,246 and Gillum garnering 3,996,906, a 55,340-vote difference.
Florida Senate Race
According to pollsters, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson was supposed to defeat Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Real Clear Politics&#8217; final average gave Nelson a <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">2.4%</a> lead over Scott, with polls showing him leading by anywhere from <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38048/election-night-key-senate-races-all-latest-results-james-barrett">2 to 7 points</a>: &#8220;Quinnipiac&#8217;s final poll showed Nelson up by 7 points; HarrisX found Scott leading by 2; Emerson gave Nelson a 5-point advantage; St. Pete Polls gave the incumbent a 4-point lead; and Trafalgar Group showed Scott with a slim 2-point edge.&#8221;
But, as with the Gillum-DeSantis contest, the Republican Trafalgar Group ended up being the only one that got the apparent victor correct. With 99% reporting and Scott beating Nelson <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/senate/">50.2 &#8211; 49.8</a>, Scott has declared victory.
Indiana Senate Race
Sen. Joe Donnelly was another incumbent Democrat that most pollsters believed would defeat Republican challenger Mike Braun, and by as much as 7 points: &#8220;Real Clear Politics&#8217; final <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/in/indiana_senate_braun_vs_donnelly-6573.html">average</a> gave him a slim 1.3% advantage over Republican Mike Braun. The final poll by CBS News/YouGov found Braun up by 3 points; NBC News/Marist found Donnelly leading by 2 points; Fox News found Donnelly ahead by 7 points; and the most recent poll, by HarrisX, found Braun with a razor-thin 1-point edge.&#8221;
Braun has been declared the winner by a sizable margin. With 93% reporting, Braun leads Donnelly by around 10 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/in">52.9 &#8211; 43</a>.
Missouri Senate Race
While some pollsters did end up giving Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley an edge over incumbent Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill, only Trafalgar Group (again) got close to predicting his significant 6-point margin. With 99% reporting, Hawley leads McCaskill by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mo">51.5 &#8211; 45.5</a>.
RCP&#8217;s <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html">final average</a> gave Hawley a razor-thin 0.6% edge, with three of the six most recent polls showing them tied, NBC News/Marist giving McCaskill a 3-point lead, Trafalgar Group showing Hawley up by 4, and Emerson giving him a 3-point advantage.
Montana Senate Race
With 95% reporting, Republican Matt Rosendale leads incumbent Democrat Jon Tester <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mt">48.8 &#8211; 48.3</a>. On election morning, RCP gave Tester a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html">3.3-point</a> advantage: &#8220;Gravis&#8217;s final poll gave Tester a 3-point lead; HarrisX gave him a 6-point lead; and Trafalgar Group gave him just a 1-point edge over Rosendale.&#8221; Once again, Trafalgar Group got the closest.
Tennessee Senate Race
While most pollsters accurately predicted Republican Marsha Blackburn would defeat Democrat Phil Bredesen (despite Taylor Swift&#8217;s endorsement), all of them underestimated the size of the victory. With 99% reporting, Blackburn leads Bredesen by about 11 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tn">54.7 &#8211; 43.9.</a> On election morning, RCP gave her a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html">5.2-point</a> advantage, with CNN showing her ahead by 4, Fox News by 9, and Emerson by 8.
North Dakota Senate Race
Similar to the Tennessee race, pollsters likewise correctly gave Republican Kevin Cramer the advantage over incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but underestimated the size of his victory. RCP&#8217;s final average was a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">9-point</a> lead for Cramer, with both Trafalgar Group and Fox News showing him the same advantage. With 99% reporting, Cramer holds an 11-point lead over Heitkamp, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nd">55.4 &#8211; 44.6</a>.
West Virginia Senate Race 
As with the Tennessee race, pollsters slightly underestimated Republican support in the contest between incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Patrick Morissey. Manchin won by 3.2 points, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-west-virginia-elections.html">49.5 &#8211; 46.3</a>. On election morning, RCP gave Manchin a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_manchin-6258.html">5-point</a> lead by average, both MetroNews and Emerson giving him that same advantage.
Not all of the polling data underestimated Republicans; in a few races, pollsters missed the mark going the other direction. Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller by over 3 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nv">49.7 &#8211; 46</a>, in the Nevada Senate race. Polling data showed the two <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html">tied</a> on the morning of the election. Likewise, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz was supposed to skate to victory in the Texas Senate race, polling data giving him a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html">6.8-point</a> lead heading into the election. He ended up only winning by only about 2.6 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx">50.9 &#8211; 48.3</a>.

So How Did The Pollsters Do? They Underestimated Republicans, Again.

Florida

Montana

North Dakota

Tennessee

U.S. Senate

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. EST: ABC News and Fox News project that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.
Heading into the election, polling data gave Republicans a decided advantage in maintaining control of the U.S. Senate, while Democrats enjoyed a slightly stronger likelihood of taking the House. According to Nate Silver&#8217;s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight</a> on the morning of the election, Republicans had a 4 in 5 chance (80.9%) of maintaining control of the Senate and were likely to end up with 52 seats, a net gain of one seat and one more than they need for the 51-seat majority.
<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html">Real Clear Politics</a>&#8216; average of the key polls Tuesday morning gave Republicans 49 seats that polling data indicates are highly likely to go their way, including two that &#8220;lean&#8221; heavily in Republicans&#8217; favor (North Dakota and Texas), one (Mississippi&#8217;s special election) that is &#8220;likely&#8221; to go to the GOP, and 46 that are fully &#8220;safe&#8221; or not up. RCP gives Democrats a total of 43 seats that are very likely to go their way (five that &#8220;lean,&#8221; two that are &#8220;likely,&#8221; and 37 that are safe or not up).
If RCP&#8217;s averages of the polls are correct, that means that just eight Senate seats are truly in play: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Other races that have garnered a lot of attention include North Dakota and Texas. Below is the final polling data for each of these key races and the latest updates on vote counts.
ARIZONA &#8212; Too close to call
With 75% reporting, McSally (R) leads Sinema (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/az">49.3 &#8211; 48.4</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
The contest for the traditionally center-right Arizona seat left empty by retiring Republican Jeff Flake is one of the Democrats&#8217; best hopes of picking up a traditionally red seat. Polling data has consistently shown a very tight race between Republican Rep. Martha McSally and Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. RCP&#8217;s average of the latest polls gave McSally a razor-thin <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html">1-point</a> advantage, a statistical tie. The final Gravis poll showed McSally up by 1; Emerson gave Sinema a 1-point edge; HarrisX had McSally up by 3; ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights gave the Republican a 1-point edge; and Trafalgar Group gave McSally a 2-point lead.
FLORIDA &#8212; Scott (R) declares victory.
With 100% reporting, Scott (R) defeats Nelson (D) <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/senate/">50.2 &#8211; 49.8</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson found himself neck-and-neck with Republican Gov. Rick Scott for the Florida seat, though most of the late polls gave Nelson the edge. RCP&#8217;s final averages of the recent polls gave Nelson a <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">2.4%</a> lead over Scott. Quinnipiac&#8217;s final poll showed Nelson up by 7 points; HarrisX found Scott leading by 2; Emerson gave Nelson a 5-point advantage; St. Pete Polls gave the incumbent a 4-point lead; and Trafalgar Group showed Scott with a slim 2-point edge.
INDIANA &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Braun (R) winner.
With 93% reporting, Braun (R) leads Donnelly (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/in">52.9 &#8211; 43</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly is one of the senators that appears to have been hurt by his vote against now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Real Clear Politics&#8217; final <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/in/indiana_senate_braun_vs_donnelly-6573.html">average</a> gave him a slim 1.3% advantage over Republican Mike Braun. The final poll by CBS News/YouGov found Braun up by 3 points; NBC News/Marist found Donnelly leading by 2 points; Fox News found Donnelly ahead by 7 points; and the most recent poll, by HarrisX, found Braun with a razor-thin 1-point edge.
MISSOURI &#8212; Fox News projects Hawley (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Hawley (R) leads McCaskill (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mo">51.5 &#8211; 45.5</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
After voting against Kavanaugh, incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill was on the wrong side of several of the polls in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html">contest in Missouri</a> against Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. RCP&#8217;s final average showed Hawley with a negligible 0.6% edge. Three of the six most recent polls found the two tied. An NBC News/Marist poll found McCaskill ahead by 3 points; Trafalgar Group found Hawley up by 4 points; and Emerson found the Republican leading by 3 points.
MONTANA &#8212; Too close to call
With 95% reporting, Rosendale (R) leads Tester (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mt">48.8 &#8211; 48.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester&#8217;s once sizable lead over Republican challenger Matt Rosendale diminished somewhat over the past few weeks. Going into election day, he lead by an average of <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html">3.3 points</a>. Gravis&#8217;s final poll gave Tester a 3-point lead; HarrisX gave him a 6-point lead; and Trafalgar Group gave him just a 1-point edge over Rosendale.
NEVADA &#8211; NBC &amp; Fox News project Rosen (D) winner.
With 94% reporting, Rosen (D) leads Heller (R) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nv">49.7 &#8211; 46</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
Incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) headed into election day <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html">tied</a> with challenger Democrat Jacky Rosen in the polls. Trafalgar Group gave Heller a 3-point lead; HarrisX showed Heller leading by just 1-point; and Emerson gave Rosen a 4-point advantage.
NORTH DAKOTA &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Cramer (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Cramer (R) leads Heitkamp (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nd">55.4 &#8211; 44.6</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp&#8217;s polling numbers tanked after her vote against Kavanaugh. RCP&#8217;s final average was a commanding <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">9-point</a> lead for Republican challenger Kevin Cramer. Both Trafalgar Group and Fox News&#8217; final polls gave Cramer that sizable advantage.
TENNESSEE &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Blackburn (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Blackburn (R) leads Bredesen (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tn">54.7 &#8211; 43.9.</a> (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
The race for the open seat between Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen leaned towards Blackburn for the last few weeks. RCP&#8217;s final average put her ahead by <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html">5.2 points</a>. Recent polls by CNN, Fox News, and Emerson gave her leads of 4, 9, and 8 points, respectively.
TEXAS &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Cruz (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Cruz (R) leads O&#8217;Rourke (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx">50.9 &#8211; 48.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
The contest between incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and challenger Democrat Beto O&#8217;Rourke was tight for several weeks, but moved in Cruz&#8217;s direction over the last month. RCP gave Cruz a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html">6.8%</a> lead by average. The final polls by Quinnipiac, CBS 11/Dixie Strategies, Emerson, and Trafalgar Group showed Cruz ahead by 5, 10, 3 and 9 points, respectively.
WEST VIRGINIA &#8212; Fox News projects Manchin (D) winner.
With 100% reporting, Manchin (D) leads Morissey (R) <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-west-virginia-elections.html">49.5 &#8211; 46.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Though it seemed highly unlikely that incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin would lose his seat to challenger Patrick Morissey, recent polls showed the race tightening. On election morning, RCP gave Manchin a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_manchin-6258.html">5-point</a> lead by average, with recent polls by MetroNews and Emerson both showing him ahead by that same margin. Manchin was the only Democrat to break ranks and vote for the confirmation of Kavanaugh.

UPDATES: The Key Senate Races, All The Latest Results

2018 Election

Arizona

The Southwest states feature a number of key races: at least two Senate races are key to the GOP&#8217;s chances of either holding on to the Senate or increasing their lead. Two key GOP seats are at stake; in Arizona, GOP candidate Congresswoman Martha McSally is in a tightly contested race with Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema for the seat vacated by GOP Senator Jeff Flake; in Nevada incumbent GOP Senator Dean Heller is locked in a combative race with Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. In Utah, former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romey is a shoo-in to win the Senate seat vacated by GOP Senator Orrin Hatch; there is no Senate race in Oklahoma, and in New Mexico, incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is running for reelection against Republican nominee Mick Rich, a businessman, and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, who served twice as GOP Governor of the state. In all polls, Heinrich has a commanding lead.
Key House races in the five states include Arizona&#8217;s 2nd district, where GOP candidate Lea Marquez Peterson is facing Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick for the House seat vacated by Martha McSally; Utah&#8217;s 4th district, where GOP incumbent Mia Love is running against Democrat Ben McAdams; Nevada&#8217;s 3rd district
New Mexico&#8217;s 2nd district is another key race: Susie Lee, a Democrat, is facing Republican Danny Tarkanian for the House seat held by Democrat Jacky Rosen, who is challenging Dean Heller, and Nevada&#8217;s 4th district, where GOP candidate Cresent Hardy is facing off against Democrat Steven Horsford.
All times EST
9:30 p.m.
In Oklahoma, in the race to replace Republican Governor Mary Fallin, with 63% of precincts reporting, GOP candidate Kevin Stitt leads his Democratic opponent, Drew Edmondson, 55%-41%. Four of the five house districts are being won by Republicans, and the fifth is a nail-biter, in the 5th district.

ELECTION NIGHT: Southwest States, All The Latest Results

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Utah

There may be ten Senate seats being discussed heavily by the media as potential pickups by one political party or the other, but I seriously doubt that Tennessee, Texas, or West Virginia are actually in play. Left-wing media outlets may believe Beto O&#8217;Rourke could take out Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), but that appears to be a pipe dream.
But there are seven Senate seats that could flip on Tuesday. I&#8217;m not telling anyone to get their hopes up, but these are the races to really watch.
Arizona
This is Democrats&#8217; best chance to pick up a Senate seat, even though Arizona is a reliably red state. Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) is tied in the polls with Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. The two are running for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who is retiring.
Arizona typically votes for center-right senators, so McSally has the upper hand for sure, and polls can&#8217;t always be trusted.
Still, Republicans can&#8217;t count Sinema out.
Florida
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) has a slim, statistically insignificant lead in the Sunshine State against Republican Gov. Rick Scott. At first, this race looked like a real pickup potential for Republicans, but now it&#8217;s not so clear.
Florida voters are also voting for a new governor and the race has gained national attention since Democrat Andrew Gillum, Tallahassee Mayor and Sen. Bernie Sanders acolyte, appeals to left-wing media.
Florida is a swing state, so it could vote Democrat, even though it&#8217;s hard to imagine my former home state electing such a far-Left candidate for governor. Still, the Senate and the gubernatorial election will feed off of each other.
Indiana
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is another Democrat who voted for Gorsuch but against Kavanaugh, despite voters in his state wanting Kavanaugh confirmed. He&#8217;s running in a state won by Trump and is tied in most polls, so he could be in real trouble.
Donnelly is the only Democrat in Indiana to hold a statewide office, and has aligned himself with Trump on occasion, including the possibility of changing birthright citizenship rules.
Missouri
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is locked in a tight race against Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. Polls either show them in a tie or with Hawley up slightly.
McCaskill has also tried to pretend she&#8217;s more aligned with Trump as she&#8217;s struggled in her re-election campaign, even running a political ad that claimed she wasn&#8217;t one of those &#8220;crazy Democrats.&#8221;
But her record shows completely the opposite. McCaskill is so left-wing she has been at the forefront of the fight against due process on college campuses. She subscribes to the &#8220;believe all women&#8221; movement no matter how absurd an accusation may be.
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has a small but steady lead in a state Trump won in 2016. Trump has been hammering Tester for months and will be visiting the state to campaign on behalf of Republican Matt Rosendale.
Trump is popular in Montana, but Tester has a high name recognition and is an incumbent, so he could still win.
Nevada
Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) at first looked like he was going to lose for sure, but he now has a slight lead in the polls. Early voting in the state, so far, puts Democrats ahead, but that, like exit polls, doesn&#8217;t really matter, as nothing is set in stone until after the election.
Heller has remained close to Trump, even though Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016.
North Dakota
This is the Republicans&#8217; best chance to pick up a Senate seat. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">has been trailing in the polls</a> by a wide margin for weeks, and though she voted for President Donald Trump&#8217;s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, she voted against Brett Kavanaugh, even though voters in her state <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-north-dakota/in-north-dakota-kavanaugh-debate-tests-democratic-wave-and-metoo-idUSKCN1MD11A">wanted Kavanaugh confirmed</a>.
Heitkamp also did significant damage to herself when her campaign printed a large ad that outed the names and locations of women alleged to have been victims of sexual abuse. Some of the women said they <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/37188/democrat-senator-apologizes-outing-sexual-assault-ashe-schow">never gave permission for their names to be printed</a>, and one even said she was not a victim.
If every one of these seats does flip, the final makeup of the Senate would be 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, a net gain of three seats for the Republicans.

These 7 Senate Seats Are The Most Likely To Flip

Bill Nelson

Claire McCaskill

Donald Trump

Heidi Heitkamp

Indiana

Missouri

This election season has seen some weird stuff, but one of the oddest phenomenon has been the trashing of Republican candidates by their own family members.
And the media have been all too happy to run with the stories.
It started a month ago when six siblings of a GOP congressman running for re-election <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/36213/watch-ad-congressional-seat-features-siblings-rep-amanda-prestigiacomo">appeared in an ad</a> endorsing his opponent. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) has nine siblings, and six of them appeared in the ad imploring voters to vote against their own family member, claiming their brother is too extreme.
&#8220;I couldn&#8217;t be quiet any longer. Nor should any of us be,&#8221; said Gosar&#8217;s sister, Grace. His brother, David, said the family members had to &#8220;stand up for our good name.&#8221; Another brother, Tim, said that it was &#8220;intervention time.&#8221;
&#8220;And intervention time means that you go to vote, and you go to vote Paul out,&#8221; he said.
Gosar <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paul-gosar-congressmans-six-siblings-endorse-his-opponent-in-viral-campaign-ad-2018-09-22/">countered</a> by pointing out that the siblings who appear in the ad don&#8217;t live in Arizona and are &#8220;liberal Democrats&#8221; who &#8220;put political ideology before family.&#8221;
<div class="embed tweet">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
My siblings who chose to film ads against me are all liberal Democrats who hate President Trump. These disgruntled Hillary suppporters are related by blood to me but like leftists everywhere, they put political ideology before family. Stalin would be proud. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Az04?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Az04</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MAGA2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MAGA2018</a>
&#8212; Paul Gosar (@DrPaulGosar) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1043566696340971520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
</div>
He followed up that tweet by saying &#8220;You can&#8217;t pick your family.&#8221;
<div class="embed tweet">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
You can&#8217;t pick your family. We all have crazy aunts and relatives etc and my family is no different. I hope they find peace in their hearts and let go all the hate.
To the six angry Democrat Gosars&#8212;see you at Mom and Dad&#8217;s house! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AZ04?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AZ04</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MAGA2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MAGA2018</a>
&#8212; Paul Gosar (@DrPaulGosar) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1043567335397679105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
</div>
Last week, 12 relatives of Nevada Republican Gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt <a href="https://www.rgj.com/story/opinion/voices/2018/10/22/12-laxalt-family-members-oppose-adam-laxalt-governor-heres-why/1733253002/">wrote an op-ed</a> lambasting their family member for opposing liberal policies. The op-ed looks like it was written by a Democrat operative, repeating every &#8220;scandal&#8221; used against the Republican during the election and trashing their own relative as fake and out-of-touch with the people of Nevada. The relatives shamelessly claimed the article was not about politics:
<blockquote>
It&#8217;s worth saying that this column isn&#8217;t about politics. We would be proud to have a Laxalt running for office on Nov. 6, regardless of whether they were Republican or Democrat or independent, so long as we believed that they would be good for Nevada. We&#8217;re writing because we care about Nevada and because we know the truth about this candidate. We think that you should, too.
</blockquote>
And now this week, the children of a Republican candidate for the Missouri General Assembly are telling voters <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article220812270.html">not to vote for their own father</a>. Reading up on the criticism of Steve West, however, makes this reporter think that these relatives might actually have a point.
&#8220;A lot of his views are just very out there,&#8221; his daughter, Emily, told the Kansas City Star. &#8220;He&#8217;s made multiple comments that are racist and homophobic and how he doesn&#8217;t like the Jews.&#8221;
Their father <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article216387050.html">has a radio show</a> where he&#8217;s claimed &#8220;Jewish Cabals&#8221; run the Republican Party and molest children.
But still, that stuff is bad on its own.
As for the other candidates, it really doesn&#8217;t matter that some family members don&#8217;t like someone who is a politician. Just because you share blood or a name with someone doesn&#8217;t mean you share political ideology. Heck, Vox&#8217;s entire holiday gig is about teaching liberals how to show their family members how insufferable they can be.
But, of course, these are Republicans, and therefore the media is all too gleeful to report when family members don&#8217;t share their political views.

Media Using Family Members To Trash Republican Candidates

Media

Media Bias

More good news for the GOP and the Senate: Nate Silver&#8217;s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/nevada/">fivethirtyeight.com</a> has moved the race in Nevada between incumbent GOP Senator Dean Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen to Lean Republican, giving Heller a 3-in-5 chance of winning and Rosen a 2-in-5 chance. Heller&#8217;s forecasted vote share is 49.5%, while Rosen&#8217;s is 47.9%.
Of the ten polls taken since September 1 that Silver&#8217;s group mentions in their data, six favored Heller while four favored Rosen. The largest margin favoring Heller, a seven-point bulge, came from the Emerson College poll conducted from October 10 through October 12; the largest margin favoring Rosen, a four-point bulge, came from the CNN/SSRs poll conducted from September 25 through September 29.
Fivethirtyeight.com explained that the normal advantage of Heller&#8217;s incumbency had been minimized: &#8220;Dean Heller has been elected to 1 term. Congress has only an 18.7% approval rating, reducing the incumbency advantage. The incumbency advantage is largest in small states with distinctive demographic patterns. Nevada is a small state with somewhat distinctive demographics, so the incumbency advantage will be about average there.&#8221;
Vis-à-vis fundraising, the statistics site wrote, &#8220;As of Sept. 30, Jack Rosen had raised $13,642,000 in individual contributions (67% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Heller had raised $6,713,000 (33%). Because challenger fundraising tends to lag incumbent fundraising, we expect Rosen&#8217;s share of the money to eventually rise to 67%.&#8221;
On Wednesday, Ipsos, in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/laxalt-leads-sisolak-in-nevada-gubernatorial-race">released the results</a> of a poll that found Heller leading by six points, 47%-41%.
On Thursday, Jon Ralston of Ralston reports <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog">took note</a> of the early voting that had taken place. He wrote:
<blockquote>
If Heller and Rosen are holding 90 percent of their bases and getting 5 percent of the other&#8217;s and each are getting 45 percent of indies: Rosen is ahead by 3,000 votes, or 1.3 percent. If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Heller is ahead by 50-45 with indies: He is losing by 850 votes, or .4 percent
If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Rosen is ahead by 50-45 with indies: She is ahead by 5,000 votes, or 2.2 percent. If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Heller is ahead by 50-40 with indies: He is ahead by 1,300 votes, or .6 percent
If they are at 90-5 with the bases and Rosen is ahead by 50-40 with indies: She is ahead by 7,000 votes, or 3.1 percent. If Trump has helped Heller hold 90 percent of the base and Rosen can only hold 85 percent and they split indies, Heller is ahead by 1,800 votes, or .8 percent.
</blockquote>
<a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/dean-heller-consolidates-lead-against-democratic-challenger-in-nevada-senate-race/">National Review</a> noted: 
<blockquote>
Heller is the only Republican incumbent defending a Senate seat in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential race &#8212; although she did so by just 2.4 points. Rosen, meanwhile, has been in Congress for only one term, elected to represent Nevada&#8217;s third congressional district in 2016 by a mere 1.2 percent margin. Six weeks ago, polling gave observers good reason to believe that Rosen was well within striking distance of Heller, making the Nevada seat perhaps the biggest pickup opportunity in the Senate for Democrats. Over the last month, that possibility has started to look far from certain, and in fact much less likely.
</blockquote>

Good GOP Senate News: Nate Silver Gives Heller An Edge In Nevada

Barack Obama is still very much proud of his presidential legacy, which includes promise-breaking Obamacare, the Trump-trashed Iran Deal, and the <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/05/news/economy/us-recovery-slowest-since-wwii/index.html">slowest economic recovery since WWII</a> &#8212; and he&#8217;ll gladly tell you all about it, even if he&#8217;s supposed to be talking up some other person who his party really needs to win to grab some of that federal power back.
The former president has found himself once again having to do some of the heavy-lifting for his politically inept party, flying out to the University of Nevada Monday night to try to help a struggling senatorial candidate win a seat that was supposed to be a shoe-in in the Era of Trump. <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/bensmith/obama-midterm-elections-vegas-jacky-rosen-senate">BuzzFeed News</a> provides some oddly familiar context:
<blockquote>
It&#8217;s a pattern that began in Massachusetts back in early 2010, when Obama flew to Boston to <a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2010/01/obama-vs-brown-024234" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">save a special election</a> that had come out of nowhere to nearly kill Obamacare&#8217;s chances in the Senate. Here in Nevada, the Trump moment that was supposed to sweep Sen. Dean Heller away seems instead to have kept the Republican senator alive in Nevada, a state Hillary Clinton won two years ago.
</blockquote>
BuzzFeed notes that Obama for some reason ended up feeling compelled to devote &#8220;much of his speech on a long defense of his own presidency,&#8221; with some good old fashioned &#8220;condemnation of Republican governance&#8221; thrown in for good measure.
The booming Trump economy, suggested Obama, is really a booming Obama economy, just a couple of years too late. &#8220;When you hear all this talk about &#8216;economic miracles&#8217; right now, remember who started it,&#8221; he said, in a line that sure comes off as a bit defensive.
Meanwhile, all of Trump&#8217;s mean talk about the FBI is anti-American, said Obama, sounding more like &#8220;how some tin-pot dictatorship works&#8221; than the country Obama famously pledged to &#8220;fundamentally transform&#8221; all those years ago.
The big race in Nevada between Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen is one of the six or so &#8220;tossup&#8221; seats that will decide who ends up controlling the Senate when the smoke clears in a few weeks. According to Real Clear Politics&#8217; average of the key polls, Republicans currently &#8220;safely&#8221; hold 50 seats, though one of those, Tennessee, may be more precarious than previously thought, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html">according to a recent poll</a>. To have a shot, Democrats will need to win Tennessee, or another &#8220;safe&#8221; seat like Texas, and then win all six of the &#8220;tossup&#8221; seats, including in Nevada.
But Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely to go the Democrats&#8217; way. The <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html">three most recent polls</a> show Heller with the lead, including the most recent poll (Emerson) that gives him a solid 7-point advantage. Recent NY Times/Siena and NBC/Marist polls both gave Heller a 2-point advantage.
Another Senate swing state with some unwelcome news is Indiana, where the tossup seat may now be leaning Republican, at least according to Republicans&#8217; internal polling. The <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/indiana-poll-shows-republicans-could-steal-a-senate-seat">Washington Examiner</a> reports: &#8220;The survey of 800 likely voters, conducted Oct. 14-17, showed Braun with a 44-40 percent advantage over Donnelly, who voted against Kavanaugh&#8217;s confirmation after a nasty partisan battle that saw his nomination rocked by uncorroborated allegations of sexual misconduct.&#8221;
Related: <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/37417/alaska-governor-suddenly-suspends-his-campaign-james-barrett">Alaska Governor Suddenly Suspends His Campaign, Throws Support To Democrat</a>

Obama Goes To Nevada To Try To Save Dem Candidate, Ends Up Defending Himself

Barack Obama

American pimp Dennis Hof died this week at the age of 72, but that doesn&#8217;t mean he&#8217;s dead in the running for the Nevada State Assembly, a race in which he is still the leading contender to pick up the District 36 seat as a Republican.
Hof became a celebrity pimp in the mid-2000&#8217;s from the HBO show &#8220;Cathouse,&#8221; which profiled his notorious legal brothel business in Nevada &#8211; the Moonlight Bunny Ranch. He decided to run for political office in 2016 following the rise of President Trump, an election that the <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/nevadas-famous-pimp-expected-win-election-despite-death-205528602.html">Associated Press</a> says he is &#8220;poised to win&#8221; posthumously after being found dead in one of his brothels on Tuesday following a weekend of parties. Porn legend Ron Jeremy is allegedly the one who discovered his body. No foul play is suspected.
&#8220;In the meantime, it&#8217;s too late to change the ballots, which have been printed and mailed,&#8221; reports AP. &#8220;Voting begins Saturday. Even though officials will post notices at the polls that Hof died, he seems likely to get elected.&#8221;
Hof&#8217;s campaign consultant, Chuck Muth, said the death of Hof shocked him unimaginably. &#8220;Just when I thought that there was nothing else in this race that could possibly shock me, here we are,&#8221; Muth said.
Despite beating his GOP opponent in the primary, the American pimp was largely shunned by the GOP establishment due to his business practices, which were rather unorthodox even by brothel standards. More from AP:
<blockquote>
Nevada is the only state to allow legal prostitution, which occurs at about 20 licensed brothels in mostly rural areas.
Most brothel owners keep a low profile, offering few interviews and buying only subtle advertising. But Hof had a penchant for splashy billboards and stunts that included helping several women &#8216;auction&#8217; their virginity.
Hof made an unsuccessful run for the Statehouse in 2016 as a Libertarian. Then this past summer, he ousted a three-term incumbent Republican in the primary after putting up billboards advertising his rival&#8217;s arrest for disorderly conduct three decades prior and sending campaign emails with a candid picture of the man slumped and asleep in a chair.
After Hof&#8217;s win, establishment Republicans refused to back him, including U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, who is in a tight re-election race, and Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who is in a close battle for the governor&#8217;s mansion.
</blockquote>
Hof&#8217;s domestic partner, Heidi Fleiss, lamented to reporters that &#8220;it&#8217;s too bad that he didn&#8217;t get to see this through.&#8221;
The American pimp even had aspirations of becoming governor one day, citing President Trump as one of his chief inspirations. His campaign for office took a hit in September when the <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/crime/sex-crimes/nevada-brothel-owner-dennis-hof-in-sexual-assault-investigation/">Las Vegas Review Journal</a> reported the &#8220;Art of the Pimp&#8221; author was being investigated for sexual assault.
&#8220;Three former prostitutes previously had accused Hof of sexual assault,&#8221; reports CNBC. &#8220;But prosecutors did not file charges against Hof because the statute of limitations had expired in each case.&#8221;
Hof emphatically denied the allegations. &#8220;It&#8217;s this sort of muckraking in the political cesspool that keeps so many good people from running for office,&#8221; he told the newspaper.
Hof was married to his high school sweetheart and had two daughters with her; they have been estranged for years.

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