Montana Gov. Steve Bullock revealed on Sunday that he has absolutely ruled out launching a bid for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat in the likely event that his presidential campaign is unsuccessful.
&#8220;We&#8217;re going to have good [Senate] candidates in Montana. I know that not everybody knows everyone in Montana, but fine candidates,&#8221; Bullock told Alisyn Camerota during a CNN town hall. &#8220;But I&#8217;m going to do everything I can to make sure that we elect somebody to beat Steve Daines.&#8221;
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Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), a freshman senator, is up for re-election in 2020 and is already facing an increasingly crowded Democratic primary field. Three Democratic challengers have already announced their candidacy before the end of the summer, including Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins.
Interestingly, while Montana is considered a reliably red state — President Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in the 2016 presidential election — both the governor and one of the U.S. senators in Montana are Democrats. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) was able to retain his seat for a third term after edging out his Republican challenger by nearly four points in 2018.
&#8220;For me, part of [my decision] is professional, meaning that my whole time that I&#8217;ve served as an executive I&#8217;ve been able to bring people together to get things done,&#8221; Bullock said. &#8220;I think that&#8217;s where my talents are best suited.&#8221;
&#8220;And part of it is political,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;We have to make sure that we can recapture the Senate.&#8221;
Bullock contended that while it is important for the Democratic Party to focus on the upcoming races in the 2020 election cycle, it is also necessary to analyze why Republicans were able to flip Senate seats red in states such as North Dakota and Indiana. He noted that it is also worthwhile to have a conversation on why former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) failed in his attempt to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in Texas.
&#8220;If we actually want to win some of these red and purple states, it might help to have somebody who has won in a red or purple state at the top of the ticket,&#8221; Bullock said.
&#8220;And then part of it also, to be honest, is personal,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;I still have young kids and I know that President [Barack] Obama actually had dinner with his kids a lot more than I would as a senator from Montana because I&#8217;d only see them on the weekends.&#8221;
While Bullock is a popular governor in Montana — he had a <a href="https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings-q2-19/">net approval rating</a> of +26 during the first quarter of 2019 — he has been struggling to gain traction in his bid for the presidency. The presidential hopeful failed to qualify for the Democratic National Committee&#8217;s (DNC) upcoming Democratic primary debates during the fall and his presidential campaign has less than <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">one percent support on average.</a>
&#8220;So that&#8217;s an absolute no?&#8221; Camerota pressed the Montana governor again.
&#8220;That&#8217;s an absolute no,&#8221; Bullock replied.

Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Speak At The Iowa AFL-CIO Convention

WATCH: Lagging 2020 Dem Will Not End His Presidential Campaign To Run For Senate: ‘An Absolute No’

2020 Election

Montana

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) introduced a resolution on Monday to condemn &#8220;the growing socialist movement in our country&#8221; and to take a stand for freedom.
&#8220;We&#8217;re at a pivotal time in our great nation&#8217;s history,&#8221; Daines said while speaking on the Senate floor. &#8220;America was founded upon the principles of liberty, the free enterprise system, and the promotion of national sovereignty and a strong national defense — under these principles we have built the greatest country in the history of the world.&#8221;
&#8220;We have shown the world time, and time again, the genius of American ingenuity and the grit of American determination,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;What makes America so great is not that we are bonded by one ethnicity or one race, but that we are bonded together by the idea of liberty.&#8221;
The Montana senator put forth that Democrats have strayed from the values that the party has historically held and its voice is subsequently being replaced with &#8220;a radical, socialist, far left movement.&#8221;
&#8220;The words and the actions of certain radical members of the Democratic House highlight this new standard for the Democratic Party,&#8221; Daines said, seemingly taking aim at Democratic socialist and self-proclaimed &#8220;radical&#8221; Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), as well as her Squad members Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and Ayanna Pressley (D-MA).
&#8220;Radical Democrats are advocating for disastrous policies that would wreck our economy under the guise of cleaning up the environment,&#8221; he continued before adding that &#8220;fantasy policies&#8221; like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All would be &#8220;a disaster&#8221; for the American people.
&#8220;We, as Americans have a choice: one path leads to complete government control, undermining our constitution and our American way of life – the other path is the path of freedom,&#8221; Daines said. &#8220;Capitalism and the free enterprise system has done more than any other system in the world to lift people out of poverty.&#8221;
The <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/daines-to-introduce-resolution-condemning-socialism-saying-pivotal-moment-has-arrived">Senate resolution</a>, first obtained by Fox News, not only acknowledges that socialism is a failed ideology that poses a threat to freedom, liberty, and economic prosperity but also accepts that it is a “failed experiment” that “inevitably ends in misery and suffering.”
It further declares that the United States “has been a beacon of light shining like a lighthouse to the rest of the world,” proclaims that freedom and liberty are the surest foundation of government, and affirms that the United States will never be a socialist country.
The resolution condemning socialism comes several months after Republican House Conference Chair Liz Cheney gave a speech outside the Capitol Building echoing similar sentiments.
Cheney told a crowd in April that Democrats need to decide whether they are still the party of former President John F. Kennedy or want to continue down the path towards socialism like Ocasio-Cortez.
&#8220;President Kennedy understood the miracle of our founding and that freedom was at the very heart of it. He understood the sacred duty that each generation bears to defend and protect that freedom,&#8221; Cheney said at the time. &#8220;[He knew] &#8216;the rights of man come not from the generosity of the state but from the hand of God&#8217; and he knew that socialism extinguishes freedom.&#8221;
&#8220;It is because the American free enterprise system thrives on innovation and it rewards entrepreneurs and employees who pursue their dreams and take that leap of faith,&#8221; Daines continued. &#8220;That is what freedom looks like.&#8221;
&#8220;In the face of this extremism we see bubbling up right over in that other chamber — the U.S House of Representatives — we must stand strong for the values that made America what it is today,&#8221; he added.

GOP Senator Introduces Resolution Declaring America Will Never Be A Socialist Country

Liz Cheney

Socialism

Speaking with MSNBC&#8217;s Chuck Todd, Montana governor and current Democratic presidential candidate Steve Bullock responded to the heated national argument about abortion by saying that America should actually promote Roe V. Wade rather than attack it.
Todd asked, &#8220;What limits would you put on abortion?&#8221;
Bullock responded, &#8220;These are decisions that should not be made by legislators. 1973, Roe V. Wade, is still the law of the land. Opposed to attacking it, we should actually be promoting it. And we should be both codifying the opportunities under Roe V. Wade and at state level I haven&#8217;t allowed any restrictions.&#8221;
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SHOCKING: Democrat Steve Bullock supports unlimited abortion, even until the moment a baby is born. Horrific.
Does ANY 2020 Democrat NOT support abortion until birth? <a href="https://t.co/prMpcKFOVW">pic.twitter.com/prMpcKFOVW</a>
&#8212; Official Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1129766061027614723?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2020-dem-bullock-says-abortion-issue-was-settled-by-supreme-court-with-roe-v-wade">Speaking</a> on CNN&#8217;s State of the Union, Bullock doubled down, saying, &#8220;Ultimately, the Supreme Court settled this 45 years ago. It&#8217;s not my decision to be making a decision that a woman needs to make in consultation with her doctor, her family, her faith &#8230; I would say that life begins at viability, but either way it&#8217;s not up to people like me to be making these decisions, not what I think, it&#8217;s what does an individual woman need to do with her body and with her health care.&#8221;
On May 8, Bullock vetoed state Senate Bill 354, The Montana Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, which <a href="https://leg.mt.gov/bills/2019/billhtml/SB0354.htm">stated</a>:
<blockquote>
If an abortion results in the live birth of an infant, the infant is a legal person for all purposes under the laws of this state; it is not an infringement on a woman&#8217;s right to terminate her pregnancy for this state to assert its interest in protecting an infant whose live birth occurred as the result of an abortion; and without proper legal protection, newly born infants who have survived abortions have been denied appropriate lifesaving or life-sustaining medical care and treatment and have been left to die. &#8230; the purposes of [sections 1 through 8] are to: ensure the protection and promotion of the health and well-being of all infants born alive in this state; and mandate that health care providers give medically appropriate and reasonable lifesaving and life-sustaining medical care and treatment to all born-alive infants.
</blockquote>
In his<a href="https://leg.mt.gov/bills/2019/AmdHtmS/SB0354GovVeto.pdf"> veto</a>, Bullock wrote, &#8220;Senate Bill 354 is a reflection of a divisive national debate that has little to do with the health of infants or women. Federal law already provides for protections and medical care for infants .&#8230; The situation SB 354 purportedly seeks to address is a medical practice that does not exist. This bill does nothing more than politicize decisions that are deeply personal and medically complex. I believe women, families and health care providers are best able to make these difficult medical decisions without political interference that is meant only to inflame and cause division.&#8221;
Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser <a href="https://www.lifenews.com/2019/05/09/montana-governor-steve-bullock-vetoes-bill-to-stop-infanticide-care-for-babies-born-alive/">ripped</a> Bullock, saying, &#8220;Once again Governor Bullock sides with abortion extremists, going so far as to veto compassionate, popular legislation designed to provide care for children who survive failed abortions. Governor Bullock is no moderate when it comes to abortion, and we&#8217;re exposing his extremist record to the voters.&#8221;

WATCH: Montana Governor Says Americans Should Promote Roe V. Wade

Abortion

&#8220;Lords of Chaos&#8221; director Jonas Åkerlund takes the helm of &#8220;Polar,&#8221; a Netflix original film based on the Dark Horse Comics digital series &#8220;Polar: Came From the Cold&#8221; by Víctor Santos. It tries to riff on the &#8220;aging hitman seeking redemption&#8221; genre that has become popular in recent years. 
The mercenary organization known as the Damocles corporation has found a way to increase their profits. Instead of paying their agents who have decided to retire, they have a group of crazed assassins wipe them out before their lucrative payday. 
Duncan Vizla (Mads Mikkelsen) is one of Damocles&#8217; finest hitmen. He has taken out high-profile targets over the years and amassed an eight million dollar retirement nest egg. Company director Mr. Blut (Matt Lucas) and handler Vivian (Katheryn Winnick) have no intention of giving him the money and send a team of killers to his hideout in Montana where Vizla has befriended his neighbor Camille (Vanessa Hudgens), who has taken a strange liking to him. They kidnap Camille to lure Vizla out. This creates a series of events leading to a brutal and bloody war between a hitman and his former employers. 
Action films require a certain suspension of logic to make them enjoyable. It comes with the territory. You accept the fact that cars cannot parachute out of a helicopter and land perfectly where a GPS sends them in order to enjoy the cool landing sequences and race that immediately follows. &#8220;Polar&#8221; demands its audience to not only suspend their logic, but for you to enjoy the nonstop barrage of grotesque sequences that haunt virtually every scene. 
Everything that makes an action flick enjoyable, heartwarming, or simply fun is missing in this film. The love of a father from &#8220;Taken,&#8221; the sense of family from &#8220;Fast and Furious,&#8221; the likable characters from &#8220;The Expendables,&#8221; the thrilling spy adventure in &#8220;Mission: Impossible,&#8221; or even the desire to avenge a beloved pet from &#8220;John Wick&#8221; is largely absent from &#8220;Polar.&#8221;
The film has no premise other than the protagonist and the antagonists stabbing, shooting, and even beheading one another from beginning to end. It simply clunks on from one horrific scene of violence and gore to the next with barely a plot to staple together a small sense of coherence. 
Even the so-called protagonist is not someone you can root for or even like. We are expected to take it at face value that Mikkelsen&#8217;s character is capable of some acts of good based on conversations that he has with Hudgen&#8217;s character, but every attempt to humanize Vizla is ruined within a few minutes. He shows himself to be caring to his neighbor, then he is teaching kids how to murder someone with a knife. He adopts a dog only to shoot it for no reason. He shows compassion for a prostitute&#8217;s son, only to endanger his life and commit a horrible act of violence right in front of him. 
&#8220;Polar&#8221; is an unpleasant eighties-style slasher film with an unlikeable protagonist disguised as an action film best skipped when it comes up in your Netflix queue.
Check out the movie trailer below:
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</div>

‘Polar’ Review: Fans Of Action Films Beware

Hollywood

Netflix

On Monday, Fox News anchor Bret Baier and his family were in a serious car crash while driving to the airport after a skiing trip in Montana.
&#8220;After a weekend of skiing with my wife and two boys in Montana, driving to the airport Monday morning on icy roads, we were involved in a major car crash,&#8221; Baier, said in a statement. &#8220;Thanks to a man driving by named Zach who stopped and helped, we were able to climb out of the flipped car. And thanks to the first responders and Montana Highway Patrol &#8211; we made it to the hospital quickly.&#8221;
Baier said that he is &#8220;grateful to all of those who helped us out.&#8221; 
&#8220;My advice to everyone is to always wear your seatbelt and to count your blessings everyday,&#8221; he added.
Baier, his wife, his two sons are &#8220;banged up, but alive,&#8221; Bair added. After the accident, his family was taken to the hospital but all have been released. 
As he left the hospital Baier told his followers on Twitter: &#8220;Don&#8217;t take anything for granted &#8211; every day is a blessing &#8211; and family is everything,&#8221; adding &#8220;It&#8217;s always good to remind yourself of that &#8211; before something does it for you. #countyourblessings.&#8221;
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Don&#8217;t take anything for granted &#8211; every day is a blessing &#8211; and family is everything. It&#8217;s always good to remind yourself of that &#8211; before something does it for you. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/countyourblessings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#countyourblessings</a>
&#8212; Bret Baier (@BretBaier) <a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/1087482040373706752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Stephen Colbert told his audience on &#8220;The Late Show&#8221; Monday night about the accident because Baier was supposed to appear on the show on Tuesday night.
&#8220;We just found out that [Baier] and his family were in a car accident in Montana,&#8221; Colbert said, reports <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/tv/colbert-says-fox-news-bret-baier-and-family-were-hospitalized-after-bad-car-crash-theyre-going-to-be-ok/">Mediate</a>. &#8220;Bad, like, jaws of life to get him out of there. They were all in the hospital but they&#8217;re going to be OK. And we just want to say: we hope you&#8217;re doing better.&#8221;
&#8220;Bret&#8217;s message to everyone out there, is: They&#8217;re going to be okay, thank you for your thoughts and prayers for him and his family, and please, wear your seatbelt. It makes a difference,&#8221; Colbert added.
After the news of the car accident broke on Twitter, Baier received hundreds of messages supportive tweets. 
&#8220;So glad you and your family are ok @BretBaier,&#8221; Fox News&#8217; correspondent Cheryl Casone tweeted. &#8220;Life is precious &amp; should not be taken for granted&#8230; prayers for a safe journey home.&#8221;
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So glad you and your family are ok <a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BretBaier</a> Life is precious &amp; should not be taken for granted prayers for a safe journey home <a href="https://t.co/aJCdxJJOin">https://t.co/aJCdxJJOin</a>
&#8212; Cheryl Casone (@cherylcasone) <a href="https://twitter.com/cherylcasone/status/1087697531839148032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2019</a></blockquote>
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The View&#8217;s Meghan McCain tweeted, &#8220;Thank GOD everyone is okay and alive but this news is still so horrifying.&#8221;
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Just heard about the car accident <a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BretBaier</a> and his family were involved in&#8230; Thank GOD everyone is okay and alive but this news is still so horrifying. <a href="https://twitter.com/bdomenech?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bdomenech</a> and my entire family are sending up a multitude of prayers for you <a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BretBaier</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/AmyBaier1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AmyBaier1</a> and your sons!
&#8212; Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) <a href="https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1087696579505647616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2019</a></blockquote>
</div>
Baier&#8217;s former colleague Megyn Kelly said Baier has &#8220;faced down plenty of life&#8217;s challenges with class, grit and a sense of humor, and he&#8217;ll undoubtedly do the same with this one.&#8221;
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.<a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BretBaier</a> has faced down plenty of life&#8217;s challenges with class, grit and a sense of humor, and he&#8217;ll undoubtedly do the same with this one. Much love to you B, Amy, Daniel &amp; Paul.
&#8212; Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) <a href="https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1087725482953637891?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2019</a></blockquote>
</div>
House Republican Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) said he is &#8220;Praying my friend @BretBaier and his family makes a full recovery!&#8221;
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley told Baier that she was &#8220;So sorry for what I know was a traumatic experience,&#8221; adding, &#8220;Thankful you and your family are ok. Prayers going up on a speedy recovery.&#8221;
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So sorry for what I know was a traumatic experience. Thankful you and your family are ok. Prayers going up on a speedy recovery. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/countyourblessings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#countyourblessings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/BretBaier?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BretBaier</a>
&#8212; Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) <a href="https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1087713809794547715?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Baier is the anchor and executive editor of Fox News&#8217; &#8220;Special Report.&#8221; Earlier this month, he signed a multi-year contract to remain at Fox News.

Fox News&#8217; Bret Baier In Serious Car Crash, Receives Inspiring Response From Fans

Bret Baier

Fox News

Speech that is merely &#8220;mean&#8221; will no longer be banned by one northwestern university following intense media scrutiny earlier this month.
At the beginning of December, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) <a href="https://www.thefire.org/speech-code-of-the-month-university-of-montana-western/">highlighted</a> the University of Montana Western&#8217;s (UMW) absurd speech code policy, which banned &#8220;mean, nasty or vindictive&#8221; speech. As I <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/39033/university-montana-speech-code-bans-mean-speech-ashe-schow">wrote at the time</a>:
<blockquote>
Of course, this raises the obvious question of who gets to decide what speech is considered &#8220;mean, nasty, or vindictive.&#8221; If I were to take a guess, based on how speech and other matters are disciplined at other universities, I&#8217;d have to say the person who decides is the person most offended, rather than a reasonable person.
Intent, in these situations, is never important to colleges and universities. One student may say something to another without any ill intent, yet the second student may take it the wrong way and consider it &#8220;mean&#8221; or &#8220;nasty.&#8221; The second student is wrong, but that doesn&#8217;t matter, all that matters is their feelings.
</blockquote>
The original placement of the &#8220;Civility Standards&#8221; gave the impression that students could be punished &#8212; including expulsion &#8212; for saying something another student deemed &#8220;mean.&#8221; The original wording included a ban on &#8220;mean, nasty, or vindictive&#8221; speech in &#8220;spoken or printed or emailed words, facial expressions, or gestures.&#8221; That&#8217;s right, a student could be expelled for giving another student a &#8220;mean&#8221; look.
After several other media outlets joined FIRE and The Daily Wire in calling out UMW&#8217;s speech code, the university removed the language from its &#8220;Statement of Responsibility,&#8221; a spokesman for FIRE informed me on December 14.
The school now argues that the language was never intended as policy.
&#8220;The &#8216;statement of responsibility&#8217; to which FIRE has called attention was never intended to be a code or policy and has never been used to discipline anyone. Upon receiving FIRE&#8217;s letter, Chancellor Weatherby called together a group of staff who were here in 2013, when this was drafted,&#8221; <a href="https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=11653">UMW spokesman Matt Raffety told Campus Reform</a>. &#8220;It was meant to promote good citizenship, but it was clearly placed incorrectly. It looks like policy. It is NOT policy. We have removed it.&#8221;
Laura Beltz, who wrote the article for FIRE, also told Campus Reform that UMW reached out to them after their report and said it removed the language.
&#8220;After FIRE designated the University of Montana Western&#8217;s policy on civility as our Speech Code of the Month for December, the university quickly reached out to inform us that the policy had been rescinded and removed from its website,&#8221; Beltz said. &#8220;We&#8217;re pleased to see this positive development, and welcome further collaboration between FIRE and the university on its remaining speech codes.&#8221;
Credit where credit is due. UMW recognized the fault in their speech code and rectified the situation, allowing students to breathe a little easier knowing their facial expressions aren&#8217;t going to be policed by subjective snowflakes or campus administrators. While this was an extreme case of poor speech-code wording, thousands of other schools enact policies that restrict student speech.

University No Longer Bans ‘Mean’ Speech After Media Backlash

First Amendment

Free Speech

We&#8217;ve moved on from using the term &#8220;hate speech&#8221; to describe wide swaths of speech we don&#8217;t like and have moved on to banning subjectively &#8220;mean&#8221; speech &#8211; at least at one northwestern university.
The University of Montana Western has been featured as the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education&#8217;s (FIRE) &#8220;<a href="https://www.thefire.org/speech-code-of-the-month-university-of-montana-western/">Speech Code of the Month</a>&#8221; for its supposed commitment to &#8220;civility&#8221; by banning subjective speech.
&#8220;The &#8216;<a href="https://w.umwestern.edu/section/a-statement-of-responsibility/">Statement of Responsibility</a>&#8217; from the university&#8217;s Student Code of Conduct explains that all members of the campus community &#8216;have the personal responsibility to promote an atmosphere of civility,&#8217; and that discussions &#8216;should never become mean, nasty or vindictive,&#8217;&#8221; wrote FIRE&#8217;s policy reform program officer, Laura Beltz.
Of course, this raises the obvious question of who gets to decide what speech is considered &#8220;mean, nasty, or vindictive.&#8221; If I were to take a guess, based on how speech and other matters are disciplined at other universities, I&#8217;d have to say the person who decides is the person most offended, rather than a reasonable person.
Intent, in these situations, is never important to colleges and universities. One student may say something to another without any ill intent, yet the second student may take it the wrong way and consider it &#8220;mean&#8221; or &#8220;nasty.&#8221; The second student is wrong, but that doesn&#8217;t matter, all that matters is their feelings.
As Beltz points out, this speech code could determine constitutionally protected speech as punishable, including tweets critical of the school, or even those who claim themselves &#8220;nasty women&#8221; based on the response to then-candidate Donald Trump&#8217;s description of Hillary Clinton.
&#8220;Our concerns are not hypothetical &#8212; FIRE has <a href="https://www.thefire.org/calls-for-censorship-at-ole-miss-over-professors-salad-tweet-must-be-rejected/">reported on</a> <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/advice/2018/11/16/when-calls-civility-are-attempts-silence-messenger-opinion">increasing instances</a> of faculty members being investigated or even punished over speech that is deemed to have lacked civility. And even if these civility policies aren&#8217;t applied to punish protected speech in practice, they&#8217;re still likely to have a chilling effect on speech, as students reading the policy will self-censor and avoid controversial expression rather than taking that risk,&#8221; Beltz wrote.
The University of Montana Western is a public institution, so it is bound by the constitution and the First Amendment. Beltz quotes from <a href="https://www.thefire.org/first-amendment-library/decision/texas-v-johnson/">Texas v. Johnson</a>, in which the Supreme Court ruled: &#8220;If there is a bedrock principle underlying the First Amendment, it is that the government may not prohibit the expression of an idea simply because society finds the idea itself offensive or disagreeable.&#8221;
An earlier version of this article misstated the school&#8217;s name. It is the University of Montana Western, not the University of Montana.

University Speech Code Bans ‘Mean’ Speech

Education

The state of Montana showed the country on Tuesday night that it will not bow to any outside forces and will determine its own identity.
After a close, contentious race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester was declared the winner sometime around 1:00 pm ET. Current numbers put him ahead of Matt Rosendale just a little under 5,000 votes &#8212; 49% to 48.1%.
220,139 for Tester; 215,889 for Rosendale.
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BREAKING: Democrat Jon Tester wins re-election to U.S. Senate from Montana. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/APracecall?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#APracecall</a> at 10:57 a.m. MST. <a href="https://twitter.com/AP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AP</a> election coverage: <a href="https://t.co/miEWlbTVZW">https://t.co/miEWlbTVZW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2018</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTelection?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MTelection</a>
&#8212; AP Politics (@AP_Politics) <a href="https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1060230016993243136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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What&#8217;s most interesting about the Montana race is how the vote split between Democrat Jon Tester for the U.S. Senate and Republican Greg Gianforte for the U.S. House. Incumbent Gianforte, the infamous body-slammer, delivered a smackdown victory to his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Williams, by a substantial margin &#8212; 52% to 45.3%. Since Montana has only one representative, that means voters overwhelmingly elected to split the ticket between the Democrat in the U.S. Senate and the Republican in the U.S. House. Unfortunately, the former has far more say in the direction of the country than the latter.
Of all the races on Tuesday night, the Montana Senate seat was easily one of President Trump&#8217;s most personal pet projects, being that Tester opposed two of his Supreme Court picks and worked to sink Ronnny Jackson, Trump&#8217;s nominee to lead the Department of Veteran&#8217;s Affairs.
&#8220;I can never forget what Jon Tester did to a man that&#8217;s of the highest quality,&#8221; Trump said in October. &#8220;What (Tester) did was unfair, what he did was vicious, what he did was &#8230; almost, almost, if this is believable, worse.&#8221;
More from the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/montanas-jon-tester-beats-back-the-trump-cavalry-to-win-another-term">Daily Beast</a>:
<blockquote>
Perhaps more so than the others, Trump <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/during-montana-campaign-stop-trump-turns-rally-cry-personal-on-jon-tester">set his sights on Tester</a>after he raised concerns about the nomination of White House doctor Ronny Jackson to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-publicly-pissed-at-jon-tester-privately-at-johnny-isakson-over-ronny-jacksons-nomination-disaster">allegations that eventually sunk</a> the nominee.
In numerous visits to the state, one frequented by Donald Trump Jr. as well, the president sought to remind voters of Tester&#8217;s actions, <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/president-trump-continues-attack-on-tester-i-know-things-that-would-cost-him-an-election">famously declaring</a> in an April rally that he knew things about Tester that would end his career. It was never clear what Trump meant by that and the barrage of attacks from the president were not enough to lead to a loss for Tester.
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So how did Tester pull it off? One likely explanation is the fact that Matt Rosendale was not a Montana native &#8212; he moved there from Maryland &#8212; along with the fact that Tester successfully castigated him as an &#8220;East Coast land developer,&#8221; which did not sit well in a state that overwhelmingly values public lands.
&#8220;He defeated Rosendale, currently the Montana state auditor, whose Maryland accent typified the kind of criticism he earned from Tester, who was born and raised in Montana,&#8221; reports the Daily Beast. &#8220;Labeling him an as &#8216;East Coast developer,&#8217; Tester campaigned on protecting a mandate that health-care insurers cover pre-existing conditions and the preservation of federal public lands, all while showcasing his folksy farmer vibe, complete with a hand mangled in a meat-grinder accident when he was a child.&#8221;

BREAKING: Dem Sen. Jon Tester Wins Re-election In Montana

2018 Election

UPDATE (2:05 pm ET): Commentators begin to speculate as to why Democratic incumbent Jon Tester beat his GOP opponent despite the state&#8217;s 20-point support for Trump in 2016. From <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/politics/jon-tester-montana/index.html">CNN</a>:
<blockquote>
Tester attacked Rosendale as an out-of-state developer by highlighting his ties to Maryland. Those attacks were helped by Rosendale&#8217;s competitive and negative primary, which provided the Tester campaign with plenty to use against the Republican. Tester closed the campaign by attacking Rosendale as &#8216;all hat, not cattle.&#8217;
</blockquote>
What&#8217;s most interesting about the Montana race is how the vote split between Democrat Jon Tester for the U.S. Senate and Republican Greg Gianforte for the U.S. House. Incumbent Gianforte, the infamous body-slammer, delivered a smackdown victory to his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Williams, by a substantial margin &#8211; 52% to 45.3%. Since Montana has only one representative, that means voters overwhelmingly elected to split the ticket between the Democrat in the U.S. Senate and the Republican in the U.S. House. Unfortunately, the former has far more say in the direction of the country than the latter.
UPDATE (1:35 pm ET): Democratic incumbent Jon Tester delivered his victory speech after being introduced by several family members. The Senator called for an age of bi-partisanship that focuses on issues that benefit Americans, such as social security and healthcare. He said this despite opposing two of President Trump&#8217;s nominees to the Supreme Court.
UPDATE (1:05 pm ET): Democratic incumbent Jon Tester has just been declared the victor for the U.S. Senate by the Associated Press:
<div class="embed tweet">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
BREAKING: Democrat Jon Tester wins re-election to U.S. Senate from Montana. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/APracecall?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#APracecall</a> at 10:57 a.m. MST. <a href="https://twitter.com/AP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AP</a> election coverage: <a href="https://t.co/miEWlbTVZW">https://t.co/miEWlbTVZW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2018</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTelection?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MTelection</a>
&#8212; AP Politics (@AP_Politics) <a href="https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1060230016993243136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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UPDATE (1:00 pm ET): Tester is reportedly preparing to take the stage to announce he has won the Senate seat over GOP challenger Matt Rosendale. From <a href="https://kpax.com/news/montana-politics/2018/11/07/live-tester-to-make-us-senate-race-announcement/">KPAX</a>:
<blockquote>
Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester will be taking the stage to announce that he has won reelection over Republican challenger Matt Rosendale.
<a href="https://kpax.com/live-stream/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Click here</a> to watch live coverage of Sen. Tester&#8217;s speech once he takes the stage.
Sen. Tester retook the lead Wednesday morning in his seesaw contest against Rosendale, while thousands of votes still remained uncounted in several major cities &#8212; including Democratic-leaning Missoula and Bozeman.
At about 9:40 a.m., the first vote results posted since early in the morning gave Tester a 1,000-vote lead, with 48.7% of the total to 48.4% for Rosendale. Libertarian Rick Breckenridge was holding steady at just under 3%.
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UPDATE (12:45 pm ET): Democratic incumbent Jon Tester has taken a sizable lead over GOP challenger Matt Rosendale &#8211; 49% to 48.1%.
218,145 votes for Tester; 213, 935 votes for Rosendale.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Jon Tester appears to be headed to a third term. Trump threw everything he had at Tester. <a href="https://t.co/W8NP43faMX">https://t.co/W8NP43faMX</a>
&#8212; Nicholas Fandos (@npfandos) <a href="https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1060216001411932161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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After a contentious race, the fight over the U.S. Senate seat in Montana still remains too close to call, with Democratic incumbent Jon Tester maintaining a slight lead over GOP challenger Matt Rosendale by 1,021 votes &#8211; 48.7% to 48.4%.
According to word on the ground, however, it appears that Tester is likely headed to a third term, given that the remaining votes are in counties where the incumbent holds the lead.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Steve Kornacki just reported on <a href="https://twitter.com/MSNBC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MSNBC</a> that Jon Tester has just taken the lead in the Montana senate race. There are still some votes remaining all in places where Tester is leading.
&#8212; Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) <a href="https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1060212989498982400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Check back in for updates.

Montana Senate Race: Too Close To Call, All The Latest Updates

In the last few days before the &#8220;most important midterm elections in history,&#8221; pollsters and analysts began to backpedal on their predictions about the much-hyped Blue Wave, which turned out to be merely a solid win in the House and a true Blue Wipe-out in the Senate. On Monday, Politico provided some quotes from pollsters warning the public that &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38016/not-normal-election-have-pollsters-failed-account-james-barrett">this is no normal election</a>&#8221; and suggesting that many of the polls might&#8217;ve failed to calibrate for some unprecedented factors, including a &#8220;staggering&#8221; early voting turnout and a surge in &#8220;non-usual&#8221; voters.
So, with the dust settling, how did pollsters do in some of the key races? In short, they generally underestimated Republican support, again.
After crunching all the most recent polling data, Nate Silver&#8217;s FiveThirtyEight predicted on election morning that Republicans would end up with <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">52 seats</a> in the Senate and Democrats would most likely secure <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/">234</a><a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/"> seats</a>. Both estimates appear to err slightly on the side of Democrats. Republicans are currently poised to end up with 53 and possibly even 54 seats, depending on how Arizona and Colorado shake out (Republicans currently have a slight edge in both with 99% and 84% reporting, respectively). Democrats did make major gains in the House, but appear likely to fall short of Silver&#8217;s prediction.
More notable than the overall number of seat wins and losses is the percentages by which Republicans defeated Democrats in some key races, particularly in the &#8220;toss-up&#8221; Senate and gubernatorial races, which garnered the most national attention. Below is a comparison of some of the polling predictions vs. the electoral results in some key Senate and gubernatorial races.
Florida Governor Race
A vast majority of the polls predicted that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum would win by anywhere from 4 to 7 points over Republican Ron DeSantis. Election morning, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html">Real Clear Politics</a>&#8216; average of the key polls showed Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 3.6 points. The Daily Wire <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38061/obama-backed-rising-star-democrat-falls-trump-james-barrett">reports</a>:
<blockquote>
Quinnipiac&#8217;s poll of 1,142 likely voters (conducted 10/29-11/4) gave Gillum a comfortable 7-point advantage. A HarrisX poll of 1,400 likely voters conducted over the same period found Gillum leading by 4 points. An Emerson poll of 748 likely voters (conducted 11/1-3) gave the Democrat a 5-point edge, as did St. Pete Polls&#8217; survey of 3,088 likely voters (conducted 11/3-4). Only one of the polls factored into Real Clear Politics&#8217; average gave DeSantis an advantage: Republican polling firm Trafalgar Group polled 1,484 likely voters during the final two days before the election and found DeSantis with a 3-point lead.
</blockquote>
Gillum ended up losing by 1 point to DeSantis. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/fl">NBC News</a> lists the current vote count at 99% reporting, DeSantis earning 4,052,246 and Gillum garnering 3,996,906, a 55,340-vote difference.
Florida Senate Race
According to pollsters, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson was supposed to defeat Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Real Clear Politics&#8217; final average gave Nelson a <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">2.4%</a> lead over Scott, with polls showing him leading by anywhere from <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/38048/election-night-key-senate-races-all-latest-results-james-barrett">2 to 7 points</a>: &#8220;Quinnipiac&#8217;s final poll showed Nelson up by 7 points; HarrisX found Scott leading by 2; Emerson gave Nelson a 5-point advantage; St. Pete Polls gave the incumbent a 4-point lead; and Trafalgar Group showed Scott with a slim 2-point edge.&#8221;
But, as with the Gillum-DeSantis contest, the Republican Trafalgar Group ended up being the only one that got the apparent victor correct. With 99% reporting and Scott beating Nelson <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/senate/">50.2 &#8211; 49.8</a>, Scott has declared victory.
Indiana Senate Race
Sen. Joe Donnelly was another incumbent Democrat that most pollsters believed would defeat Republican challenger Mike Braun, and by as much as 7 points: &#8220;Real Clear Politics&#8217; final <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/in/indiana_senate_braun_vs_donnelly-6573.html">average</a> gave him a slim 1.3% advantage over Republican Mike Braun. The final poll by CBS News/YouGov found Braun up by 3 points; NBC News/Marist found Donnelly leading by 2 points; Fox News found Donnelly ahead by 7 points; and the most recent poll, by HarrisX, found Braun with a razor-thin 1-point edge.&#8221;
Braun has been declared the winner by a sizable margin. With 93% reporting, Braun leads Donnelly by around 10 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/in">52.9 &#8211; 43</a>.
Missouri Senate Race
While some pollsters did end up giving Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley an edge over incumbent Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill, only Trafalgar Group (again) got close to predicting his significant 6-point margin. With 99% reporting, Hawley leads McCaskill by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mo">51.5 &#8211; 45.5</a>.
RCP&#8217;s <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html">final average</a> gave Hawley a razor-thin 0.6% edge, with three of the six most recent polls showing them tied, NBC News/Marist giving McCaskill a 3-point lead, Trafalgar Group showing Hawley up by 4, and Emerson giving him a 3-point advantage.
Montana Senate Race
With 95% reporting, Republican Matt Rosendale leads incumbent Democrat Jon Tester <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mt">48.8 &#8211; 48.3</a>. On election morning, RCP gave Tester a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html">3.3-point</a> advantage: &#8220;Gravis&#8217;s final poll gave Tester a 3-point lead; HarrisX gave him a 6-point lead; and Trafalgar Group gave him just a 1-point edge over Rosendale.&#8221; Once again, Trafalgar Group got the closest.
Tennessee Senate Race
While most pollsters accurately predicted Republican Marsha Blackburn would defeat Democrat Phil Bredesen (despite Taylor Swift&#8217;s endorsement), all of them underestimated the size of the victory. With 99% reporting, Blackburn leads Bredesen by about 11 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tn">54.7 &#8211; 43.9.</a> On election morning, RCP gave her a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html">5.2-point</a> advantage, with CNN showing her ahead by 4, Fox News by 9, and Emerson by 8.
North Dakota Senate Race
Similar to the Tennessee race, pollsters likewise correctly gave Republican Kevin Cramer the advantage over incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but underestimated the size of his victory. RCP&#8217;s final average was a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">9-point</a> lead for Cramer, with both Trafalgar Group and Fox News showing him the same advantage. With 99% reporting, Cramer holds an 11-point lead over Heitkamp, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nd">55.4 &#8211; 44.6</a>.
West Virginia Senate Race 
As with the Tennessee race, pollsters slightly underestimated Republican support in the contest between incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Patrick Morissey. Manchin won by 3.2 points, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-west-virginia-elections.html">49.5 &#8211; 46.3</a>. On election morning, RCP gave Manchin a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_manchin-6258.html">5-point</a> lead by average, both MetroNews and Emerson giving him that same advantage.
Not all of the polling data underestimated Republicans; in a few races, pollsters missed the mark going the other direction. Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller by over 3 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nv">49.7 &#8211; 46</a>, in the Nevada Senate race. Polling data showed the two <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html">tied</a> on the morning of the election. Likewise, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz was supposed to skate to victory in the Texas Senate race, polling data giving him a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html">6.8-point</a> lead heading into the election. He ended up only winning by only about 2.6 points, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx">50.9 &#8211; 48.3</a>.

So How Did The Pollsters Do? They Underestimated Republicans, Again.

Democratic Party

Florida

Nevada

North Dakota

Republican Party

Tennessee

Texas

U.S. Senate

Update 2:22 pm ET: The Montana Senate election has been called for Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who voted against Kavanaugh.
As of Wednesday morning, every incumbent Democrat senator in a competitive race who voted against Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court has lost.
The senate race in Montana is still too close to call, but it looks like Republican Matt Rosendale will eke out a victory. Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, voted against Kavanaugh in October after the judge was accused without evidence of teenage sexual misconduct.
In Indiana, Republican Mike Braun defeated incumbent Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly. Donnelly had voted yes on President Donald Trump&#8217;s first Supreme Court nomination, Neil Gorsuch, but said he would vote &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/36458/breaking-swing-vote-sen-donnelly-no-kavanaugh-mid-paul-bois">no</a>&#8221; on Kavanaugh.
&#8220;I have deep reservations about Judge Kavanaugh&#8217;s nomination to this lifetime position and, as I stated, we have been unable to get all the information necessary regarding this nomination, despite my best efforts,&#8221; Donnelly said at the time. &#8220;Only 113 people have ever served on the Supreme Court, and I believe that we must do our level best to protect its sanctity.&#8221;
Donnelly also said the allegations against Kavanaugh were &#8220;disturbing and credible&#8221; and he wanted the FBI to investigate. The FBI did investigate and found no evidence to support the allegedly credible allegations.
This pattern also occurred with Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. She voted for Gorsuch but against Kavanaugh despite a majority of voters in her state wanting Kavanaugh confirmed. Heitkamp announced she would vote &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/36776/dem-senator-heitkamp-explains-her-no-vote-frank-camp">no</a>&#8221; on Kavanaugh after watching his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee regarding the accusations against him with the sound off.
&#8220;In addition to the concerns about his past conduct, last Thursday&#8217;s hearing called into question for me Judge Kavanaugh&#8217;s current temperament, his honesty, and his impartiality. These are critical traits of any nominee to serve on the highest court in our country,&#8221; Heitkamp said in a statement at the time. &#8220;Dr. Ford gave a heartfelt, credible, and persuasive testimony. It took a great deal of courage, and it also came at great personal cost to her. &#8230; Our actions right now are an important signal to young girls and women across the country &#8230; &#8221;
Kavanaugh was not Heitkamp&#8217;s only problem, of course. In her zeal to appear sympathetic to victims of sexual assault, her campaign published an ad claiming to be a letter written by survivors. The only problem was the campaign <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/37188/democrat-senator-apologizes-outing-sexual-assault-ashe-schow">didn&#8217;t seek permission</a> from these women to name them and use their locations. Heitkamp was already down in the polls for her vote on Kavanaugh, but this blunder sealed her fate.
Republican Kevin Cramer defeated Heitkamp Tuesday night in North Dakota.
In Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill, the Democrat incumbent, voted against Kavanaugh. She, too, lost to her Republican challenger, Josh Hawley. It also appears Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida will be defeated by Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Nelson also voted against Kavanaugh.
Every Democrat in a Red or Red-ish state who voted against Kavanaugh has either lost or looks likely to lose. By contrast, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) voted for Kavanaugh and won re-election despite running in a state that Trump carried in 2016.
There is one outlier to all of this: In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who voted for Kavanaugh. Nevada is not a Red State, however.

KAVANAUGH EFFECT: Democrats Who Voted Against Him Lose Competitive Races

Brett Kavanaugh

Claire McCaskill

Donald Trump

Heidi Heitkamp

Indiana

Joe Manchin

Missouri

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. EST: ABC News and Fox News project that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.
Heading into the election, polling data gave Republicans a decided advantage in maintaining control of the U.S. Senate, while Democrats enjoyed a slightly stronger likelihood of taking the House. According to Nate Silver&#8217;s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header">FiveThirtyEight</a> on the morning of the election, Republicans had a 4 in 5 chance (80.9%) of maintaining control of the Senate and were likely to end up with 52 seats, a net gain of one seat and one more than they need for the 51-seat majority.
<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html">Real Clear Politics</a>&#8216; average of the key polls Tuesday morning gave Republicans 49 seats that polling data indicates are highly likely to go their way, including two that &#8220;lean&#8221; heavily in Republicans&#8217; favor (North Dakota and Texas), one (Mississippi&#8217;s special election) that is &#8220;likely&#8221; to go to the GOP, and 46 that are fully &#8220;safe&#8221; or not up. RCP gives Democrats a total of 43 seats that are very likely to go their way (five that &#8220;lean,&#8221; two that are &#8220;likely,&#8221; and 37 that are safe or not up).
If RCP&#8217;s averages of the polls are correct, that means that just eight Senate seats are truly in play: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Other races that have garnered a lot of attention include North Dakota and Texas. Below is the final polling data for each of these key races and the latest updates on vote counts.
ARIZONA &#8212; Too close to call
With 75% reporting, McSally (R) leads Sinema (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/az">49.3 &#8211; 48.4</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
The contest for the traditionally center-right Arizona seat left empty by retiring Republican Jeff Flake is one of the Democrats&#8217; best hopes of picking up a traditionally red seat. Polling data has consistently shown a very tight race between Republican Rep. Martha McSally and Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. RCP&#8217;s average of the latest polls gave McSally a razor-thin <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html">1-point</a> advantage, a statistical tie. The final Gravis poll showed McSally up by 1; Emerson gave Sinema a 1-point edge; HarrisX had McSally up by 3; ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights gave the Republican a 1-point edge; and Trafalgar Group gave McSally a 2-point lead.
FLORIDA &#8212; Scott (R) declares victory.
With 100% reporting, Scott (R) defeats Nelson (D) <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/senate/">50.2 &#8211; 49.8</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson found himself neck-and-neck with Republican Gov. Rick Scott for the Florida seat, though most of the late polls gave Nelson the edge. RCP&#8217;s final averages of the recent polls gave Nelson a <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">2.4%</a> lead over Scott. Quinnipiac&#8217;s final poll showed Nelson up by 7 points; HarrisX found Scott leading by 2; Emerson gave Nelson a 5-point advantage; St. Pete Polls gave the incumbent a 4-point lead; and Trafalgar Group showed Scott with a slim 2-point edge.
INDIANA &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Braun (R) winner.
With 93% reporting, Braun (R) leads Donnelly (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/in">52.9 &#8211; 43</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly is one of the senators that appears to have been hurt by his vote against now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Real Clear Politics&#8217; final <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/in/indiana_senate_braun_vs_donnelly-6573.html">average</a> gave him a slim 1.3% advantage over Republican Mike Braun. The final poll by CBS News/YouGov found Braun up by 3 points; NBC News/Marist found Donnelly leading by 2 points; Fox News found Donnelly ahead by 7 points; and the most recent poll, by HarrisX, found Braun with a razor-thin 1-point edge.
MISSOURI &#8212; Fox News projects Hawley (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Hawley (R) leads McCaskill (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mo">51.5 &#8211; 45.5</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
After voting against Kavanaugh, incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill was on the wrong side of several of the polls in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mo/missouri_senate_hawley_vs_mccaskill-6280.html">contest in Missouri</a> against Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. RCP&#8217;s final average showed Hawley with a negligible 0.6% edge. Three of the six most recent polls found the two tied. An NBC News/Marist poll found McCaskill ahead by 3 points; Trafalgar Group found Hawley up by 4 points; and Emerson found the Republican leading by 3 points.
MONTANA &#8212; Too close to call
With 95% reporting, Rosendale (R) leads Tester (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/mt">48.8 &#8211; 48.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester&#8217;s once sizable lead over Republican challenger Matt Rosendale diminished somewhat over the past few weeks. Going into election day, he lead by an average of <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html">3.3 points</a>. Gravis&#8217;s final poll gave Tester a 3-point lead; HarrisX gave him a 6-point lead; and Trafalgar Group gave him just a 1-point edge over Rosendale.
NEVADA &#8211; NBC &amp; Fox News project Rosen (D) winner.
With 94% reporting, Rosen (D) leads Heller (R) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nv">49.7 &#8211; 46</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST)
Incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) headed into election day <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html">tied</a> with challenger Democrat Jacky Rosen in the polls. Trafalgar Group gave Heller a 3-point lead; HarrisX showed Heller leading by just 1-point; and Emerson gave Rosen a 4-point advantage.
NORTH DAKOTA &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Cramer (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Cramer (R) leads Heitkamp (D) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/nd">55.4 &#8211; 44.6</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp&#8217;s polling numbers tanked after her vote against Kavanaugh. RCP&#8217;s final average was a commanding <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">9-point</a> lead for Republican challenger Kevin Cramer. Both Trafalgar Group and Fox News&#8217; final polls gave Cramer that sizable advantage.
TENNESSEE &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Blackburn (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Blackburn (R) leads Bredesen (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tn">54.7 &#8211; 43.9.</a> (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
The race for the open seat between Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen leaned towards Blackburn for the last few weeks. RCP&#8217;s final average put her ahead by <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html">5.2 points</a>. Recent polls by CNN, Fox News, and Emerson gave her leads of 4, 9, and 8 points, respectively.
TEXAS &#8212; NBC &amp; Fox News project Cruz (R) winner.
With 99% reporting, Cruz (R) leads O&#8217;Rourke (D) by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx">50.9 &#8211; 48.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
The contest between incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and challenger Democrat Beto O&#8217;Rourke was tight for several weeks, but moved in Cruz&#8217;s direction over the last month. RCP gave Cruz a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html">6.8%</a> lead by average. The final polls by Quinnipiac, CBS 11/Dixie Strategies, Emerson, and Trafalgar Group showed Cruz ahead by 5, 10, 3 and 9 points, respectively.
WEST VIRGINIA &#8212; Fox News projects Manchin (D) winner.
With 100% reporting, Manchin (D) leads Morissey (R) <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-west-virginia-elections.html">49.5 &#8211; 46.3</a>. (Updated 8:00 a.m. EST.)
Though it seemed highly unlikely that incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin would lose his seat to challenger Patrick Morissey, recent polls showed the race tightening. On election morning, RCP gave Manchin a <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_manchin-6258.html">5-point</a> lead by average, with recent polls by MetroNews and Emerson both showing him ahead by that same margin. Manchin was the only Democrat to break ranks and vote for the confirmation of Kavanaugh.

UPDATES: The Key Senate Races, All The Latest Results

Arizona

There may be ten Senate seats being discussed heavily by the media as potential pickups by one political party or the other, but I seriously doubt that Tennessee, Texas, or West Virginia are actually in play. Left-wing media outlets may believe Beto O&#8217;Rourke could take out Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), but that appears to be a pipe dream.
But there are seven Senate seats that could flip on Tuesday. I&#8217;m not telling anyone to get their hopes up, but these are the races to really watch.
Arizona
This is Democrats&#8217; best chance to pick up a Senate seat, even though Arizona is a reliably red state. Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) is tied in the polls with Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. The two are running for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who is retiring.
Arizona typically votes for center-right senators, so McSally has the upper hand for sure, and polls can&#8217;t always be trusted.
Still, Republicans can&#8217;t count Sinema out.
Florida
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) has a slim, statistically insignificant lead in the Sunshine State against Republican Gov. Rick Scott. At first, this race looked like a real pickup potential for Republicans, but now it&#8217;s not so clear.
Florida voters are also voting for a new governor and the race has gained national attention since Democrat Andrew Gillum, Tallahassee Mayor and Sen. Bernie Sanders acolyte, appeals to left-wing media.
Florida is a swing state, so it could vote Democrat, even though it&#8217;s hard to imagine my former home state electing such a far-Left candidate for governor. Still, the Senate and the gubernatorial election will feed off of each other.
Indiana
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is another Democrat who voted for Gorsuch but against Kavanaugh, despite voters in his state wanting Kavanaugh confirmed. He&#8217;s running in a state won by Trump and is tied in most polls, so he could be in real trouble.
Donnelly is the only Democrat in Indiana to hold a statewide office, and has aligned himself with Trump on occasion, including the possibility of changing birthright citizenship rules.
Missouri
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is locked in a tight race against Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley. Polls either show them in a tie or with Hawley up slightly.
McCaskill has also tried to pretend she&#8217;s more aligned with Trump as she&#8217;s struggled in her re-election campaign, even running a political ad that claimed she wasn&#8217;t one of those &#8220;crazy Democrats.&#8221;
But her record shows completely the opposite. McCaskill is so left-wing she has been at the forefront of the fight against due process on college campuses. She subscribes to the &#8220;believe all women&#8221; movement no matter how absurd an accusation may be.
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has a small but steady lead in a state Trump won in 2016. Trump has been hammering Tester for months and will be visiting the state to campaign on behalf of Republican Matt Rosendale.
Trump is popular in Montana, but Tester has a high name recognition and is an incumbent, so he could still win.
Nevada
Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) at first looked like he was going to lose for sure, but he now has a slight lead in the polls. Early voting in the state, so far, puts Democrats ahead, but that, like exit polls, doesn&#8217;t really matter, as nothing is set in stone until after the election.
Heller has remained close to Trump, even though Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016.
North Dakota
This is the Republicans&#8217; best chance to pick up a Senate seat. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html">has been trailing in the polls</a> by a wide margin for weeks, and though she voted for President Donald Trump&#8217;s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, she voted against Brett Kavanaugh, even though voters in her state <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-north-dakota/in-north-dakota-kavanaugh-debate-tests-democratic-wave-and-metoo-idUSKCN1MD11A">wanted Kavanaugh confirmed</a>.
Heitkamp also did significant damage to herself when her campaign printed a large ad that outed the names and locations of women alleged to have been victims of sexual abuse. Some of the women said they <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/37188/democrat-senator-apologizes-outing-sexual-assault-ashe-schow">never gave permission for their names to be printed</a>, and one even said she was not a victim.
If every one of these seats does flip, the final makeup of the Senate would be 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, a net gain of three seats for the Republicans.

These 7 Senate Seats Are The Most Likely To Flip

Bill Nelson

Hillary Clinton

Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana sits in the thin area between winning and losing as Tuesday night approaches, with conflicting polls showing him either ahead or behind his GOP opponent Matt Rosendale by narrow margins.
According to <a href="https://hotair.com/archives/2018/11/05/hope-change-democratic-firms-poll-shows-republican-suddenly-leading-jon-tester-montana/">Hot Air</a>, the Democratic polling firm Change Research has put Rosendale ahead of Tester by three points.
&#8220;Tester only leads 51-38 among independents, and that&#8217;s probably not enough for him to win. And Montana&#8217;s political trends don&#8217;t seem to be in his favor,&#8221; said the firm on Monday. &#8220;Far fewer Montanans now describe themselves as independents compared to 18 months ago.&#8221;
&#8220;Today, more than 3x as many Montanans (36%, compared to 11%) rate Trump a 10 out of 10. The state&#8217;s independent streak appears to be thinning &#8212; hurting candidates like Tester,&#8221; the firm continued.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
MT Senate (n=879)
Matt Rosendale (R) 49 
Jon Tester (D) 46 
Rick Breckenridge (L) 3
Tester only leads 51-38 among independents, and that&#8217;s probably not enough for him to win. And Montana&#8217;s political trends don&#8217;t seem to be in his favor.
&#8212; Change Research (@ChangePolls) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294833053855744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
Far fewer Montanans now describe themselves as independents compared to 18 months ago.
Today, more than 3x as many Montanans (36%, compared to 11%) rate Trump a 10 out of 10. The state&#8217;s independent streak appears to be thinning &#8212; hurting candidates like Tester.
&#8212; Change Research (@ChangePolls) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059295360726708229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
</div>
As noted by Hot Air, Matt Rosendale has not had much luck thus far, with nearly every poll showing him behind Tester by fairly substantial margins. Keep in mind, Change Research is an outlier poll and has made bold predictions, such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O&#8217;Rourke being in a <a href="https://hotair.com/archives/2018/11/04/democratic-firms-poll-texas-cruz-49-orourke-49/">dead heat in Texas</a>.
Conversely, one Harris Interactive/Scott Rasmussen poll has put Tester ahead by six to seven points. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/montana-senate-midterm-latest-tester-vs-rosendale-polls-show-democrat-leading-1200406">Newsweek</a> has more:
<blockquote>
A poll concluded November 1 by Harris Interactive shows Tester leads Rosendale by a margin of 49 percent to 42 percent &#8211; plus 7 points. Similarly, a poll concluded on October 26 by Gravis Marketing showed Tester with a plus 3 points lead over Rosendale (48 percent to 45 percent). The most recent University of Montana poll concluded on October 18, showed Tester with a plus 10 point lead over Rosendale (49 percent to 39 percent).
</blockquote>
The latest polls come shortly after President Trump campaigned hard for Rosendale over the weekend, during which the president bashed Tester as being a pawn of &#8220;Cryin&#8217; Chuck&#8221; Schumer.
&#8220;We can&#8217;t have someone who will vote lockstep with Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and Cryin&#8217; Chuck,&#8221; Trump <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-trashes-democratic-sen-jon-tester-montana-campaign-rally-n930931">said</a> at a rally over the weekend regarding Jon Tester.
Indeed, Jon Tester has shown himself to be a perfect puppet of Schumer when it comes to the important votes, being that he opposed both of President Trump&#8217;s judicial nominees: Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.
On Gorsuch, Tester <a href="https://medium.com/@sen_jon_tester/why-i-cannot-support-judge-gorsuch-70c7b460cd7e">said he opposed the conservative Justice</a> for fear he represented &#8220;dark money.&#8221;
<blockquote>
As Montana&#8217;s Senator, one of my most important responsibilities is to advise and consent on Supreme Court nominees.
I took my time with this process because I believe the Supreme Court is too important to play politics with and this decision was not easy, it came with thoughtful deliberation, late nights, and the counsel of thousands of Montanans.
After meeting with Judge Gorsuch face-to-face, giving him a fair hearing, and reviewing his qualifications, I cannot support the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch.
I cannot support a nominee who refuses to answer important questions.
With Judge Gorsuch on the bench, I am deeply concerned that dark money will continue to drown out the voices and votes of citizens, the Court will stand between women and their doctors, and the government will reach into the private lives of law-abiding Americans.
These are not Montana values.
Lawyers with degrees from Ivy League schools often get good at dodging questions.
But a Judge cannot hide from his opinions.
Over the years, Judge Gorsuch gave corporations the same Constitutional rights as a nurse from Plentywood, a teacher from Kalispell, or a farmer from Fort Benton.
In the controversial <a data-href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/12/12-6294.pdf" href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/12/12-6294.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby</a> decision, he ruled that a corporation can have religious beliefs just like people.
If that were true, then I invite Wells Fargo out to my farm to spend a few long days picking rock in the fields.
And, according to Judge Gorsuch&#8217;s opinion in <a data-href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/13/13-1108.pdf" href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/13/13-1108.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Riddle v. Hickenlooper</a>, he believes campaign contributions deserve First Amendment protections.
Montanans know: money is not speech.
And not only does Judge Gorsuch think corporations have the same rights as people, in Hobby Lobby he decided that the rights of a corporation outweighed the rights of Montana women.
It&#8217;s clear to me that, if confirmed, Judge Gorsuch would threaten our access to a doctor and endanger the Constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens.
While he is good on the Second Amendment, his views on the Fourth Amendment &#8212; guaranteeing the right to privacy &#8212; should be concerning to everyone.
In this country, we are innocent until proven guilty and we value our civil liberties.
Judge Gorsuch has argued for a <a data-href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/11/11-2169.pdf" href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/opinions/11/11-2169.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">narrow interpretation of the Fourth Amendment</a> which could subject Montanans to government overreach.
Whether it&#8217;s searching a car that was illegally pulled over or trying to meddle in a private health care decision, Montanans rightfully want to keep the government out.
I am concerned that if Judge Gorsuch is confirmed, our future will be shaped with dark money and an expanding government that violates our fundamental freedoms.
This is not a future that works for Montana, and I cannot support this nomination.
</blockquote>

Will Dem Sen. Jon Tester Lose Montana? Here Are The Conflicting Polls.

On Wednesday, the Montana Libertarian candidate for the U.S. Senate, Rick Breckenridge, dropped out of the race and endorsed GOP candidate Matt Rosendale, the state&#8217;s Insurance Commissioner, who is running against incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester, who has served as the state&#8217;s senator since 2006.
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Libertarian Rick Breckenridge says he can&#8217;t win, endorses <a href="https://twitter.com/MattForMontana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MattForMontana</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/mtpol?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#mtpol</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/mtnews?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#mtnews</a>
&#8212; News Dir. MTPR (@MTPRND) <a href="https://twitter.com/MTPRND/status/1057673272651788288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Breckenridge throwing his support to Rosendale may turn the race in the GOP candidate&#8217;s favor; the most recent poll taken in Montana, the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf">Gravis poll</a>, which was conducted between October 24 and October 26, found Tester leading Rosendale 48%-45%, with 7% of the voters undecided. A previous poll, the <a href="http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/newsphotos2018/oct/2018%20Montana%20Poll%20report.pdf">Montana State University Billings poll</a>, conducted between October 8 and October 13, found Tester with a 47%-38% lead over Rosendale.
But two September polls found the race very close; the <a href="https://krtv.com/news/montana-politics/2018/10/22/mtn-msu-poll-tester-holds-narrow-lead-in-u-s-senate-race/">Montana Television Network-Montana State University poll</a> found Tester leading 46%-43%, while a <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sIROTFhWn2eSSMy9mTNo6dYMHNFTQTqd/view">CBS/YouGov poll</a> found Tester leading by an even thinner margin, 47%-45%.
<a href="https://helenair.com/news/national/libertarian-backs-republican-in-tight-montana-senate-race/article_53325c1f-5354-5030-bf23-400148e06b48.html">The Helena Independent Record</a> reported that Breckenridge threw his support behind Rosendale after an anonymous group sent an election mailer that was designed to weaken conservatives&#8217; support for Rosendale. The Independent Record wrote:
<blockquote>
Breckenridge said in an interview that he doesn&#8217;t know the source of the mailer, which promoted him as a &#8220;true conservative&#8221; and claimed that Rosendale supports using drones to spy on private citizens. He said it appeared to be an attempt by so-called dark money groups to influence Montana&#8217;s election and that he&#8217;s decided Rosendale is the best candidate to stop such efforts.
</blockquote>
Breckenridge stated, &#8220;The reality is I&#8217;m only going to get 3 or 4 percent of the vote, and he (Rosendale) has the character to combat this issue. I&#8217;m standing in unity and solidarity with Matt to combat dark money in politics.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/31/jon-tester-montana-senate-2018-948774">Politico</a> reported, &#8220;Though Tester has a narrow lead, the race is statistically tied, according to new Republican polling viewed by Politico. Republicans think a late surge of GOP enthusiasm tied to Trump&#8217;s visit this coming weekend could produce a major upset of a two-term incumbent who has never cleared 50 percent of the vote.&#8221;
President Trump has been angry with Tester for some time; <a href="https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ones-personal-trump-heads-montana-grudge-tester">last spring</a> Tester helped allegations become public that questioned the management actions of Ronny Jackson, the Navy rear admiral and former Trump military physician whom Trump had nominated to be secretary of the Department of Veterans Affairs. Jackson ultimately declined the nomination. After that, Trump accused Tester of pushing false allegations against Jackson. Trump said Tester should not be a senator, tweeting, &#8220;The Secret Service is unable to confirm (in fact they deny) any of the phony Democrat charges which have absolutely devastated the wonderful Jackson family. Tester should resign.&#8221;
On Wednesday, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/413971-tester-fights-for-survival-at-home">The Hill</a> reported, &#8220;Tester, who appeared to be cruising to reelection a few months ago, now finds himself in a dogfight, and he warned supporters at a rally in Butte, a hardscrabble mining town, that only a handful of votes could decide the race. &#8230; The race has tightened considerably since the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which Montana Republicans say has energized their base.&#8221;

Montana Libertarian Candidate Throws Support To GOP Candidate. GOP Could Pick Up Another Senate Seat.

Rachel Dolezal attempts to get another 15 minutes of fame (or more accurately 100 minutes) with a new Netflix original documentary, &#8220;The Rachel Divide.&#8221; The film covers a wide scope of her life, from growing up in Montana, to getting married, to her activism, to the scandal, to her book, and finally her name change. While there are some &#8220;secrets revealed&#8221; moments, this documentary will change no one&#8217;s mind about the fraud she perpetuated on the African-American community. 
The first part of the documentary covers the 2015 scandal, where Dolezal, then president of the Spokane NAACP chapter, was revealed not to be African-American, but a Caucasian woman identifying as &#8220;transracial.&#8221;
The filmmaker interviews the first reporter who covered the story, which started out as an investigation into the alleged hate mail Dolezal was receiving. Many, including members of her own chapter, suspected that she was sending them to herself, though nothing was ever proven. 
The film then shifts gears, taking us back to Dolezal growing up in Montana with white parents who adopted several African-American children. From there we get glimpses of Dolezal&#8217;s home life with her two sons, her adopted sister, and interactions with an unforgiving public who refuse to see her as anything but a fraud. 
The producers and directors were trying to portray Dolezal as a sympathetic, misunderstood person who just wants to &#8220;be her true self.&#8221; However, as I watched how her actions affected her friends, family, and especially her children, all I could see was a self-centered and selfish person trying to get attention while at the same time complaining that she just wants to live a normal life.
She complains about people committing hate crimes against her by yelling obscenities in her window, leaving fruits on her car&#8217;s windshield, and a neighbor putting a poster up with a swastika on social media. Yet, not once does she produce a shred of evidence of any of these claims. The filmmaker apparently just took her word as the truth.
The same goes for her teaming up with her adopted sister in making sexual misconduct claims against their biological brother. The documentary takes their word on the allegations while not offering any proof and only briefly interviews another sibling who denounces the alleged crimes. When the charges are dropped after Dolezal&#8217;s scandal breaks, the film does not blame lack of evidence, but the perception of Rachel as untrustworthy.
The hardest part to watch was the impact on her children. Her adopted brother, Izaiah, of whom she had custody, chooses to leave the country to get away from the media spotlight, while her biological son expresses frustration at her constant need for attention. 
If the intention of &#8220;The Rachel Divide&#8221; is to make the controversial figure more human, it is a massive failure. Instead, it only reinforces your opinion of her. If you watched it as a supporter, you will cheer. If you are a critic, you will wonder why you watched it in the first place. 
Check out a clip below:
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&#8216;The Rachel Divide&#8217; Review: Still Lying

Conservatism

NAACP

Race

Rachel Dolezal

Racism

Washington

(Here be spoilers. Many, many spoilers . . . )
I won&#8217;t be watching the Academy Awards this weekend. They bore me and have become insufferably political.
But I do wish that more recognition &#8212; at least, say, one nomination &#8212; had been given to what may have been last year&#8217;s strongest, and most surprising, film: <a href="https://www.fandango.com/hostiles-205214/movie-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hostiles</a>.
Written and directed by Scott Cooper (Crazy Heart, Black Mass), Hostiles is of a type that you can rarely find in modern cinema. It&#8217;s a film that explores with maturity one of America&#8217;s most controversial eras: its westward expansion; what that expansion did not just to the Indians, but to America&#8217;s settlers and soldiers; and what the Indians did to them.
Hostiles, set in 1892, is so not your typical, simplistic, un-nuanced, tsk-tsk-tsk finger-wag at Americans of the past.
This is clear from the movie&#8217;s opening, even though it features a quote from English novelist D.H. Lawrence that would sit well with many an American Studies professor: &#8220;The essential American is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted.&#8221;
But in the first scene, a band of war-whooping Comanches, whose faces are covered in red paint, attacks the home of Rosalie Quaid (Rosamund Pike). 
The Quaids are Americans who settled down for a new, quiet, life on the frontier. 
The Comanches scalp and execute Rosalie&#8217;s husband, and, as she tries to escape into the forest with her three daughters, the Indians shoot and kill all three. Her infant bleeds out in her arms. 
They pursue Rosalie into the woods, but she hides under a rock. The Comanches whoop back to the cabin, burn it down, and steal the horses.
The sequence feels like a response to Lawrence&#8217;s quip about the &#8220;hard, isolate, stoic&#8230;killer&#8221; American: Yeah, well, the Comanches will do that to you.
His &#8220;essential American,&#8221; who we meet in the next scene, is the film&#8217;s protagonist, Army Captain Joseph Blocker (Christian Bale). 
The Army sent Blocker to New Mexico presumably to help quash what was left of Indians&#8217; violent resistance. 
Blocker has seen his share of Indian brutality, but he&#8217;s no angel himself. He&#8217;s killed many Indians, and he defends his past actions by saying he was just doing his job. 
It&#8217;s hard not to cringe as Blocker sits atop his horse and watches a captured Indian warrior tied to a rope, dragged on the desert ground by horseback to nearby Fort Winslow. All the while Blocker is chewing on a piece of fruit. Just another day&#8217;s work on the frontier.
But, we&#8217;re reminded, while that type of warfare may be hostile to our modern eyes, it was the norm then and there. On the frontier, violence and death always lurked nearby.
Blocker was shaped more by his encounters with Indian warriors&#8217; savagery than by any type of racial prejudice. As shown by his touching relationship with black Corporal Henry Woodsen (Jonathan Majors), he has none.
Hostiles goes out of its way to warn viewers against impulsively judging Blocker, who is the archetypical frontier American &#8212; strong, brave, fierce, honorable.
He&#8217;s a thinker, too. He&#8217;s reading Caesar&#8217;s autobiography in the original Latin, and he can speak the Cheyennes&#8217; language better than any soldier on the frontier.
But Blocker is thrust into a strange world when he&#8217;s called into a surprise, early-morning meeting with the fort&#8217;s top official, Colonel Abraham Biggs (Stephen Lang). 
With the colonel is Jeremiah Wilks (Bill Camp), an urban, smug, judgmental, East Coast journalist visiting from Harper&#8217;s Weekly. 
Biggs, with his finger to the wind, welcomed Wilks as part of a public relations stunt. As Americans&#8217; sympathy for the Indians was growing, public support for the military&#8217;s campaign was waning. Biggs wants Wilks to write a favorable story that will go over well with readers in New York.
Wilks appears in only two scenes, but he&#8217;s the film&#8217;s poster boy for insufferable judgmentalism. 
He is the columnist who sits in his comfortable Manhattan office while judging the men who fight our distant wars. He is short, overweight, and well-dressed &#8212; the opposite of Blocker. He is neither interested in nor capable of doing the dirty work of building America, as Blocker is. He is the judge from on high. Tough men like Blocker repulse him, but also shame him. 
Biggs wants Wilks to be in the room when he gives the soon-to-retire Blocker his final major assignment: to execute an order from President Benjamin Harrison. 
The President instructed Biggs to release the cancer-ridden Cheyenne Chief Yellow Hawk (Wes Studi) and his family, so that the chief could return to his ancestral land in Montana before he dies.
Biggs orders Blocker to lead a company to escort the Cheyennes through the hostile terrain.
Blocker, who harbors a deep hatred of Yellow Hawk, refuses.
&#8220;Do you have any idea what he&#8217;s done?,&#8221; an incredulous Blocker asks Biggs. &#8220;He&#8217;s a butcher.&#8221;
&#8220;Then the two of you ought to get along just fine,&#8221; Wilks interjects, smirking.
Blocker, furious, but controlled, steps to within inches of Wilks.
&#8220;I saw what happened to the 4th [Cavalry Regiment] when Yellow Hawk and his dog soldiers got done with them,&#8221; Blocker says, looking down at Wilks, who for the first time looks that he knows not of what he speaks. &#8220;There wasn&#8217;t enough left of those poor men to fill a slop pale.&#8221;
&#8220;When we lay our heads down out here,&#8221; Blocker says. &#8220;We&#8217;re all prisoners.&#8221; Such was the price of civilizing a lawless land. 
Blocker grudgingly accepts the mission after Biggs threatens to court martial him, which would endanger his pension.
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As soon as Blocker&#8217;s company and Yellow Hawk&#8217;s family leave the compound, out of Biggs&#8217;s sight, Blocker orders Yellow Hawk chained. 
Soon thereafter they come across the burned out house of the Quaid family. Blocker finds Rosalie, in shock, sitting on a bed with her dead children around her. 
Now we see how gentle Blocker can be. He takes Rosalie in to his company, cares for her, and protects her. She, like Blocker, is quiet and strong, and, like Blocker, has a visceral fear and hatred of Indians because of what they did to her. And she becomes hysterical when she sees that in Blocker&#8217;s company are Cheyenne Indians.
The film, though, clearly tells us that Indians are not a monolith. 
Rosalie soon comes to love Yellow Hawk&#8217;s family, who treat her with love. 
And after a Comanche attack on the company, Yellow Hawk &#8212; who says the Comanches are not right in the head &#8212; persuades Blocker that he must unchain him if they&#8217;ll have any chance at survival. 
&#8220;Remove the binds,&#8221; Yellow Hawk implores Blocker. &#8220;We can be of great help.&#8221;
Over the course of their horseback journey, Blocker&#8217;s company &#8212; which soon becomes a unified group of Americans and Indians &#8212; confronts not just Comanches, but white outlaw robbers who kidnap Rosalie and Yellow Hawk&#8217;s daughter, and white frontier settlers who see Blocker and the government as hostiles. 
Blocker fights them all, losing many of his own men. 
The journey is redemptive for both Blocker and Yellow Hawk &#8212; the essential American and the essential Indian. Their hatred was based on experience, on what happened &#8212; the only thing that could have happened &#8212; when two peoples with radically different cultures struggled over one land.
But when their experience brought them together, when they had the shared goal of defeating the hostiles who stood between them and Montana, their animosity vanished.
&#8220;I lost many friends and you have lost many as well,&#8221; Blocker tells Yellow Hawk in his native tongue, reconciling with his former enemy before the cancer takes him.
&#8220;They are a great loss for us both,&#8221; Yellow Hawk responds.
Hostiles beautifully explores Blocker&#8217;s &#8220;essential American&#8221; character by showing us what it is not. It also, as Cooper said, plumbs &#8220;the depths of the darkened psyche&#8221; of both perpetrators and victims of violence and war.
Blocker&#8217;s close friend, Master Sgt. Thomas Metz (Rory Cochrane) is strong, brave, and has killed his share of Indians. But he is consumed by his guilt. It ruins him. He, unlike Blocker, can&#8217;t come to terms with what he needed to do as a soldier on the frontier. 
&#8220;I&#8217;ve killed everything that&#8217;s walked or crawled,&#8221; Metz tells West Point graduate Lt. Rudy Kidder (Jesse Plemons). &#8220;If you do it enough, you get used to it.&#8221;
&#8220;That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m afraid of,&#8221; Kidder responds meekly. 
Kidder is a kind soul, and knows how to fight, but he&#8217;s a kid. He doesn&#8217;t want to see himself as a killer &#8212; a weakness when hostiles are hunting you.
His naivete ultimately does him in when he unchains disgraced Sgt. Charles Wills (Ben Foster). Wills joined the company when they briefly stopped at an Army fort in Colorado. 
Lt. Col. Ross McCowan asked Blocker to take Wills to a court martial along the way to Montana. Wills had murdered a group of Indians with an axe. He was likely facing the gallows. 
Wills is Blocker without a conscience. Strong, deadened to the horrors of war, and evil. 
They had fought Indians side-by-side in the past, and Wills doesn&#8217;t hesitate to remind Blocker that he has done some terrible things, too; that it could just as likely be him in chains instead of Wills.
Naturally, then, Blocker despises Wills. So much, in fact, that he refuses to bury him after coming across his dead body the day after he murdered Kidder and escaped.
To do so would be to honor a bad man. 
And Blocker, the essential American, is not a bad man. Rosalie Quaid, a beautiful, gentle, strong, woman, would not admire a bad man.
If you want to see a profoundly grown-up retrospective on America, on civilization versus barbarity, on good versus evil, on how the American character was forged, go see Hostiles while it&#8217;s still in theaters.

‘Hostiles’: The Great, Unknown Film Of 2017

Christian Bale

Colorado

New Mexico

U.S. Army

Together, throughout the day, left-wing CNN and MSNBC are hardly able to cobble together three million total viewers. That is less than 1% of the American population. After four days spent out here in the real world, that fact showed.
Pulling a single-axle camper, the wife and I and two small dogs pulled out of our cul-de-sac early Tuesday morning. We drove through the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee before making a sharp right turn straight up through Kentucky, Indiana, a horror show called Chicago, and finally rural Wisconsin &#8212; where I sit right now at my small kitchen table listening to birds chirp and the people of this small town drive by in the act of living life.
Four days driving through and camping in Trump Country, Middle America, that part of this land our media, political, and cultural elite do not want to claim as their land. It is always illuminating to make this trip. Because our media, political and cultural elite have done such an effectively evil job of shrinking down the vastness of America to the size of D.C., Los Angeles and Manhattan, the endless expanse of that part of the country that isn&#8217;t woke, that doesn&#8217;t virtue signal and that actually works for a living, is a heartening reminder that we are not alone. Far from it.
The peace of everyday, normal life was only broken with a quick glance at social media or 30 seconds of talk radio. Like messages from another planet, an intense planet where things that do not matter do so very much, even a sneak peek felt like a opening a door and being blasted by a thick, musty heat &#8230; probably from hell.
Out here, no one talks about Russia or 2018 or Montana. Every 30 minutes, the news-break over the radio informs us that President Trump&#8217;s overseas trip is going pretty well, another anonymous someone leaked something that probably isn&#8217;t true to a news outlet hungry to publish what isn&#8217;t true, and baseball and weather and local crime and now back to the Swap Shop.
Meanwhile, on that other planet:
RUSSIARUSSIAMONTANABODYSLAMJOURNALISTSTALKINGABOUT THEMSELVESRUSSIAMONTANA2018VIRTUESIGNALBODYSLAM!!!
A rush of noise, of sanctimony &#8230; A fire hose of self-regard, of fabricating a reality where Democrats could actually win in Montana &#8212; which would, of course, mean we should have listened to the media and voted for the woman who gave Putin our uranium supply.
Man alive.
And then a cold dose of reality courtesy of us hicks, the kind of reality that makes Don Lemon cry &#8230; The Republican Gianforte not only won by a comfortable margin in Montana (thank you for that early voting thing, Democrats!), but in the aftermath of this supposed body-slam, even though the end of the campaign was just 12 hours away, the alleged body slammer&#8217;s campaign still picked up something like $100,000 in donations.
You see, MSM, you really do not matter. This world you try to fabricate through your unified noise machine simply doesn&#8217;t exist, and those of us out here along whatever rural route we live on, are on to you and your cheap, desperate hustle.
No one wants to see anyone body-slammed, not even an obnoxious left-wing, metrosexual activist posing as a journalist. &#8230; But after years and years of your smug supremacism, your lies and insults, your bigotry and hate &#8230; we do understand.
And some of us sent you a message through the act of writing a check. 
Follow John Nolte on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/NolteNC">@NolteNC</a>. Follow his Facebook Page <a href="https://www.facebook.com/JohnNolteNC/?skip_nax_wizard=true">here</a>.

Gianforte Campaign Raised Almost $100K — AFTER Alleged Body-Slam of a Reporter

Greg Gianforte

Media Bias

On Thursday night, GOP candidate Greg Gianforte <a href="https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/montana-at-large-congressional-election/">won the special election</a> for the at-large vacancy in the House created by the appointment of Ryan Zinke as Secretary of the interior. As Decision Desk HQ reported, Gianforte defeated Democratic candidate Rob Quist 50.5% to 43.7%.
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Projection: Greg Gianforte (R) elected to Congress in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> special, defeating Rob Quist (D).
&#8212; Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/867952023143989250">May 26, 2017</a></blockquote>
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Gianforte&#8217;s expected path to the victory had been threatened by the charge filed against him of allegedly assaulting Ben Jacobs, a reporter for The Guardian. Although the three largest newspapers in the state rescinded their endorsements of Gianforte, a significant factor in the election was the fact that most of the ballots (268,498) were cast before the incident; a majority of Montana voters generally choose to mail in their votes.
Only hours before the incident with Jacobs, the Gianforte campaign had <a href="http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/25/paul-ryan-calls-gianforte-apologize/102145832/">sent out</a> a fundraising appeal to its supporters, saying the election &#8220;will determine whether we pass Donald Trump&#8217;s America First agenda or if the fake news media and the national Democrats will win, keeping Obama&#8217;s reckless policies in place.&#8221;
After the incident, the Helena Independent Record wrote as it rescinded its endorsement, &#8220;We are also sick and tired &#8212; of Gianforte&#8217;s incessant attacks on the free press.&#8221;
<a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/montana-special-election/?">Summing up</a> why Quist lost, Harry Enten of fivethirtyeight.com stated, &#8220;The problem for Quist is that he underperformed his benchmarks by about 5 to 10 points across the board in the early vote. So, even if Quist got the full effect of a normal scandal and the Election Day vote matched the early vote, it would not have been enough for him.&#8221;

Gianforte Wins Special Election In Montana

Thursday is a special election in Montana to replace the seat vacated by <a href="https://www.doi.gov/whoweare/secretary-ryan-zinke">Ryan Zinke</a>, who is now serving as President Trump&#8217;s Interior Secretary. The race has garnered national attention &#8212; especially in light of recent events &#8212; and could have implications on the GOP&#8217;s electoral chances in 2018.
Here are five things you need to know about Montana&#8217;s special election.
1. The Republican candidate, Greg Gianforte, allegedly body-slammed a reporter on Wednesday evening. This story has gone viral ever since the reporter, The Guardian&#8216;s Ben Jacobs, claimed that it happened. The Daily Wire&#8216;s James Barrett <a href="http://www.dailywire.com/news/16848/yikes-fox-news-team-gives-eyewitness-account-james-barrett">cited</a> Fox News reporter Alicia Acuna&#8217;s account of the incident, which described it as Jacobs repeatedly pressing Gianforte to comment on the Congressional Budget Office&#8217;s (CBO) latest report on Trumpcare. Gianforte eventually snapped and &#8220;grabbed Jacobs by the neck with both hands and slammed him into the ground behind him&#8221; and &#8220;then began punching the reporter.&#8221;
&#8220;As Gianforte moved on top of Jacobs, he began yelling something to the effect of, &#8216;I&#8217;m sick and tired of this!'&#8221; reported Acuna.
Barrett noted that &#8220;an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/us/politics/greg-gianforte-montana-republican-body-slams-reporter.html?_r=0&amp;mtrref=www.dailywire.com&amp;gwh=81B4888DFF453F143EE182A17A84D3BC&amp;gwt=pay">audio recording</a> of the confrontation posted by Jacobs seems to confirm the Fox News team&#8217;s account.&#8221;
Gianforte released a statement on the matter that pinned the blame on Jacobs:
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Gianforte&#8217;s statement: <a href="https://t.co/WVNdA1yZ8w">pic.twitter.com/WVNdA1yZ8w</a>
&#8212; Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/867538098359545858">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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However, the audio recording and Acuna&#8217;s account of the incident contradict Gianforte&#8217;s statement. According to Barrett, &#8220;Gianforte has been charged with misdemeanor assault and faces up to a $500 fine, six months in jail, or both.&#8221;
It&#8217;s unclear how the incident will affect Gianforte&#8217;s standing in the polls, but three major newspapers in the state have already retracted their endorsements of Gianforte, per Barrett.
2. Gianforte has been running as an ardently pro-Trump candidate. According to <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/25/montana-special-election-5-things-to-watch-238791">Politico</a>, Gianforte tends to fill &#8220;his events with Trump stickers&#8221; and &#8220;his standard speech with mentions of the president.&#8221;
&#8220;He&#8217;s also received in-person visits from Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President Mike Pence,&#8221; reports Politico. &#8220;In the past three days, the White House has even chipped in with separate robocalls from the president and vice president, urging voters to support Gianforte.&#8221;
The Democratic candidate, Rob Quist, has not been making Trump himself an issue in the campaign, but has been consistently attacking Trumpcare throughout.
3. Quist has had problems with paying his taxes. Quist had accumulated over <a href="http://www.ktvh.com/2017/03/quist-says-health-care-troubles-led-to-financial-troubles">&#8220;$27,000 of unpaid debts and property taxes&#8221;</a> that wasn&#8217;t paid off until 2017. He has blamed it on a &#8220;botched gallbladder operation&#8221; and filed a medical malpractice lawsuit against the surgeon who performed that operation, identified as Dr. Roch Boyer. However, Boyer charged &#8220;that Quist entered the procedure with a history of marijuana usage, a pre-existing genital herpes condition, a previous positive test for tuberculosis, and a past meeting with a marriage counselor where he discussed his &#8216;failing marriage,'&#8221; per <a href="https://pjmedia.com/election/2017/05/17/mont-dem-rob-quist-silent-on-genital-herpes-in-tax-evasion-case/">PJ Media</a>.
The PJ Media article also points out there is reason to believe that Quist&#8217;s health problems may not necessarily be to blame for the debts and property taxes he owed:
<blockquote>
The Washington Free Beacon&#8217;s Scher questioned Quist&#8217;s contention that he was unable to pay taxes and other debts due to the 1992 surgery. During the suit, the Quists disclosed that they brought in $136,412 in income in 1994. Real estate records show that the candidate&#8217;s wife, Bonni Quist, has sold over $15 million worth of property since 2006, which would have earned her about $500,000 according to standard commission rates.
In 2007, the year the Quists refused to pay thousands of dollars in property taxes, Bonni Quist was the agent for three real estate sales each valued at nearly $1 million.
Quist has continued his struggling music career, and performed 50 times in 2007. In recent years, he has gotten paid a few thousand dollars per performance, according to a recent financial disclosure. This does not mean he received the same amount in 2007, but it stands to reason that he was bringing in some appreciable income through performing. The Free Beacon also reported that he has been able to secure recurring gigs at a nudist resort in Idaho.
</blockquote>
4. In order for Gianforte to win, he needs a strong turnout on Thursday. Jeff Roe, who was Sen. Ted Cruz&#8217;s (R-TX) campaign manager during the 2016 Republican primary, explained the current state of the vote on Twitter:
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%&#8217;ish <a href="https://twitter.com/RobQuistforMT">@RobQuistforMT</a> 40%&#8217;ish <a href="https://twitter.com/GregForMontana">@GregForMontana</a> and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867779026588499968">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> means roughly <a href="https://twitter.com/GregForMontana">@GregForMontana</a> needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867780189199192065">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> real impact will be measured in depressed Election Day turnout not true candidates flips (no pun). Meaning true cost is hard to read.
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867780965980143616">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867781557448212480">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> in other words 17,601 <a href="https://twitter.com/GregForMontana">@GregForMontana</a> voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect <a href="https://twitter.com/RobQuistforMT">@RobQuistforMT</a>
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867783768949620736">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MTAL?src=hash">#MTAL</a> so with all that said I&#8217;ll wait to hear some turnout #&#8217;s before &#8220;guessing&#8221; results. But before this he was going to win by 1-2%.
&#8212; Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/867784897653600256">May 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
</div>
Gianforte is still <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/">expected to narrowly win</a>, but it&#8217;s certainly possible that the body-slamming incident will have enough of an effect on turnout to hand Quist a victory.
5. A poor showing by Gianforte could spell trouble for the GOP if it&#8217;s part of a broader trend. FiveThirtyEight&#8216;s Harry Enten <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/">explains</a>:
<blockquote>
The consistency here is key. Any single House special election is susceptible to district-specific factors. (There&#8217;s the body-slamming incident, to take just one example. And even before that, Gianforte seemed a bit out of place in Montana. He was a billionaire tech entrepreneur from New Jersey who was last seen losing Montana&#8217;s 2016 gubernatorial race, even as Trump was cruising in the state.) But special elections as a group have done a decent job of forecasting the following midterm&#8217;s House results. When a party vastly underperforms the past presidential vote consistently, it tends to do poorly in the following midterm. If the average House Republican candidate has underperformed nationally by 16 points once all the special elections occur, it would be on par with 2006, when Democrats took back the House.
In other words, if the GOP candidate puts in an underwhelming performance in Kansas, and in Georgia, and in Montana, it&#8217;s probably safe to conclude that there&#8217;s something going on nationally rather than in just those three states specifically. We already heard Republicans try to explain away Ron Estes&#8217;s relatively poor performance in Kansas by pointing to Gov. Sam Brownback&#8217;s unpopularity. And while Gianforte&#8217;s flaws probably give Quist (who himself has issues) a better chance than normal in such a red state, Montanans typically don&#8217;t send a non-incumbent Democrat to Congress unless the national mood is poor for Republicans. The state&#8217;s Democratic Sen. Jon Tester originally won office in 2006 when he beat then-incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns. That year, Tester benefited from President George W. Bush&#8217;s 47 percent approval rating in the state. Williams originally won the state&#8217;s only congressional seat when President George H.W. Bush was so unpopular that he lost Montana in the 1992 presidential election.
</blockquote>
If Quist were to win, he would be the first Montana Democrat elected to the House since 1994, which, of course, would be an alarming result for the GOP. The wild card here is the body-slamming incident&#8217;s effect on the election, so a Quist win may be the result of that incident and not necessarily part of a broader trend against the GOP, but if the Georgia special election in June sees similar results, then the GOP should definitely start panicking. 
<a href="https://twitter.com/bandlersbanter">Follow Aaron Bandler on Twitter.</a>

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