Untitled design – 2026-04-17T112129.656

LIVE UPDATES: U.S. Fighter Jets Cripple Two More Iranian Tankers Violating Blockade

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Protest

Revolution

A CIA assessment presented to Trump administration officials this week reportedly found that Iran still possesses roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile even after weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The Islamic regime also retains about 75% of its mobile launchers, according to a report from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">The Washington Post</a>. An intelligence source familiar with the analysis confirmed its existence to The Daily Wire.
American intelligence officials believe Tehran has managed to reopen underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles, and continue assembling weapons that were near completion before the conflict began.
Before the war, Iran was believed to possess roughly 2,500 missiles and thousands of drones, according to the Post. Despite launching repeated attacks against Israel, neighboring Arab countries, and U.S. military sites in the region, much of that arsenal appears to remain intact.
The findings appear to conflict with comments President Donald Trump made on Wednesday, when he said Iran’s missile capabilities had been largely “decimated.” 
“Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “Not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
Iran fired roughly 650 missiles <a href="https://www.ajc.org/news/the-iran-strikes-explained-how-we-got-here-and-what-it-means">at Israel</a> during the latest conflict and another 549 ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, including several launched this week despite a ceasefire remaining in effect. According to the <a href="https://x.com/modgovae/status/2051377052998332472?s=20">UAE Ministry of Defense</a>, the attacks have killed 13 people and injured 227 others.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell defended the administration’s handling of the conflict.
“Operation Epic Fury was an overwhelming success, with our forces executing the mission with unmatched precision and achieving every objective set by the President from the outset,” Parnell said in a statement provided to The Daily Wire. “This success follows Operation Midnight Hammer last year, which completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities and demonstrated exactly what American military strength looks like.”
One U.S. official cited by the Post warned that Iran may be more capable of enduring a prolonged conflict than the CIA’s assessment suggests.
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
The CIA assessment also found Iran may be able to withstand the current U.S. naval blockade for several more months, though the restrictions have sharply reduced oil exports and strained the regime&#8217;s economy.  
Still, the blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports and placed mounting pressure on the regime’s economy. Experts say Tehran’s remaining options are limited: consume excess oil domestically, store it, or shut down production altogether — each carrying major economic consequences. Production shutdowns, in particular, can permanently damage oil wells and reduce long-term output.
During active fighting with the United States — but before the blockade fully took hold — Iran continued exporting crude through its illicit “ghost fleet,” averaging roughly 2.1 million barrels per day between April 1 and April 13, consistent with prewar levels, according to <a href="https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/iran-war-shipping-update-april-30-2026">The Wall Street Journal</a>. After the blockade intensified, exports reportedly fell to approximately 567,000 barrels per day.
The regime’s desperation became increasingly visible in recent weeks. According to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), Tehran recently reactivated the Nasha, a derelict 30-year-old tanker that had sat idle for years, repurposing it to store oil offshore. Satellite imagery reportedly showed the vessel loading crude near Kharg Island on April 26 before departing days later.
The White House disputed suggestions that the military campaign had fallen short.
“During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement to the Post. “Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
Meanwhile, the United States and Iran are reportedly moving closer to a potential agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has yet to respond to the Trump administration’s latest offer. The proposed framework is a one-page plan that would formally declare the war over and begin a 30-day negotiation period focused on Iran’s nuclear program, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and reopening the vital shipping lane.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-DEFENCE

CIA Assessment Counters Trump Claim On Iran Missile Losses

Donald Trump

Secretary of State Marco Rubio held face-to-face meetings with Pope Leo on Thursday as President Donald Trump remains critical of the pope&#8217;s position on the Iran war.
In Vatican City, Rubio, America&#8217;s top diplomat and a Roman Catholic, met with Pope Leo and Holy See Secretary of State Pietro Parolin to discuss issues such as the Middle East. A State Department official told The Daily Wire that &#8220;today&#8217;s conversations were friendly and constructive.&#8221;
&#8220;Secretary of State Marco Rubio met today with His Holiness Pope Leo XIV to discuss the situation in the Middle East and topics of mutual interest in the Western Hemisphere,&#8221; State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott <a href="https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/05/secretary-rubios-meeting-with-pope-leo-xiv/">said</a>. &#8220;The meeting underscored the strong relationship between the United States and the Holy See and their shared commitment to promoting peace and human dignity.&#8221;<iframe style="aspect-ratio: 9/16; max-width: 220px; display: flex; justify-content: center; width: 100%; margin: 20px auto 5px; border: 0;" src="https://player.mux.com/RMTDsb9XI826a85Kic7O02MfT7Hx9DR6r?metadata-video-content-type=short&amp;metadata-video-id=5affd718-0d57-4cf0-b89e-ca7ee6e24961&amp;metadata-video-stream-type=on-demand&amp;metadata-video-title=Rubio%20makes%20peace%20with%20Pope%20Leo%20XIV%20inside%20the%20Vatican&amp;poster=https%3A%2F%2Fdailywireplus-v2.imgix.net%2Fimages%2Fshorts%2F30318a23-322c-4ce8-9a57-6eb3e88036e3.jpg&amp;autoplay=false&amp;accent-color=%23DB3D3B&amp;primary-color=%23ffffff&amp;secondary-color=%23000000" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
The Holy See “exceeded expectations” in their welcoming of Secretary Rubio to the Vatican, a source familiar with the protocol told The Daily Wire, demonstrating “strong U.S.-Holy See ties.”
The Holy See also arranged for Rubio’s motorcade to enter through the Arch of Bells, which is usually reserved for the head of state or head of government — a special mark of respect for Rubio. The Vatican also sent the Prefect of the Papal Household, Archbishop Peter Rajik, to greet Rubio as the secretary of State arrived in the San Damaso Courtyard. Rubio was greeted by the full Swiss Honorary Guard who welcomed his delegation, the source familiar shared.
During the meeting, Rubio also discussed the United States&#8217; work with the Catholic Church and Caritas in Cuba with the Holy See leadership, according to the State Department official.
The meeting follows recent clashes between President Trump and the pope, whose outspoken criticism of the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran has drawn sharp rebukes from the president.
Ahead of Rubio&#8217;s meeting, Trump sent a &#8220;simple&#8221; message to the leader of the Catholic Church.
&#8220;As far as the Pope is concerned, it&#8217;s very simple. Whether I make him happy or I don&#8217;t make him happy: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,&#8221; <a href="https://x.com/CatholicVote/status/2052108392060133721?s=20">Trump said</a>. &#8220;And he seemed to be saying that they can, and I say, they cannot.&#8221;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
🚨 President Trump shares a &#8220;simple&#8221; message for Pope Leo ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s meeting with the pontiff.
&#8220;As far as the Pope is concerned, it&#8217;s very simple. Whether I make him happy or I don&#8217;t make him happy: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/WfHKQZAMcJ">pic.twitter.com/WfHKQZAMcJ</a>
— CatholicVote (@CatholicVote) <a href="https://twitter.com/CatholicVote/status/2052108392060133721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2026</a></blockquote>
In an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKqngLaiqsE">interview</a> with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, the commander-in-chief said the pontiff&#8217;s position endangers Catholics.
“I think he&#8217;s endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people, but I guess if it&#8217;s up to the Pope, he thinks it&#8217;s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon,&#8221; Trump asserted.
The American-born pope rejected that criticism, saying the mission of the church is to preach the Gospel of peace. 
“If someone wants to criticize me for proclaiming the Gospel, let him do so truthfully,&#8221; Leo said, <a href="https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2026-05/pope-leo-xiv-castel-gandolfo-press-nuclear-weapons.html">according to a Catholic news outlet</a>. &#8220;For years, the Church has spoken out against all nuclear weapons, so there is no doubt on that point.&#8221; 
Last month, Trump launched a broadside against the Pope, following a Sunday-night “<a href="https://x.com/60Minutes/status/2043471794074448140?s=20">60 Minutes</a>” episode featuring prominent American cardinals who offered several critiques of the Trump administration. 
Hours later, Trump slammed the Pope as “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy.”
“I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116394704213456431">Trump said on Truth Social</a>. “Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician.”
In a <a href="https://x.com/Acyn/status/2043498719270637656?s=20">gaggle with reporters</a>, the president piled on.
“I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime I guess,” Trump said at Joint Base Andrews. “I’m not a big fan of Pope Leo. He’s a very liberal person.”
Pope Leo has not backed away from his criticism, though he has insisted he does not seek a political confrontation with the White House.
“I have no fear of the Trump administration or speaking out loudly of the message of the Gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do, what the Church is here to do,” Leo told <a href="https://x.com/catholicourtney/status/2043619307993665935?s=20">reporters aboard the papal plane</a>. “We are not politicians. We don’t deal with foreign policy with the same perspective he might understand it, but I do believe in the message of the Gospel, as a peacemaker.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
In response to a personal attack by President Donald Trump the night before, Pope Leo told journalists on the papal plane to Algeria:
“I have no fear of the Trump administration or speaking out loudly of the message of the Gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do, what… <a href="https://t.co/zV6FuacGSM">pic.twitter.com/zV6FuacGSM</a>
— Courtney Mares (@catholicourtney) <a href="https://twitter.com/catholicourtney/status/2043619307993665935?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2026</a></blockquote>
Thursday&#8217;s meeting between Rubio and Pope Leo suggests both sides may be looking to find common ground and shift towards private diplomacy over public attacks.
&#8220;We share with the Catholic Church a concern about the destruction of religious liberty, the persecution of Christian minorities, and also, you know, the challenges that are being faced by Christians in Africa,&#8221; Rubio said at a recent White House press briefing. &#8220;So the trip is really not tied to anything other than the fact that it would be normal for us to engage with them.&#8221;

How Rubio Is Smoothing Things Over With The Pope

Catholic Church

Marco Rubio

Pope Leo

Vatican

Iranian forces launched cruise missiles at U.S. Navy ships and commercial vessels under American protection in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first significant escalation since the implementation of the ceasefire last month.
U.S. Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper described the actions by Iranian forces as “Iran initiating aggressive behavior” on a call with journalists Monday.
“The cruise missiles were going after both U.S. Navy ships, but mostly after commercial shipping,” Cooper said. “We&#8217;ve defended both ourselves and, consistent with our commitment, we defended all the commercial ships.”
Cooper declined to comment on whether Iran&#8217;s actions violated the ceasefire agreement. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
No U.S. Navy ships or commercial ships have been hit by Iranian strikes, which began about 12 hours ago, according to Cooper.
He added that Iranian forces also used drones and small boats to attack commercial ships. Cooper said six of those boats were destroyed by Apache and Seahawk helicopters.
“You typically see between 20 and 40 small boats in a pack coming out,” he said. “Today we saw six and eliminated them quickly. I think this is an example of the degradation of their capability. That doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s all gone, but it&#8217;s highly degraded.”
The attacks come as President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Tehran through “Project Freedom,” an operation designed to restore the flow of global commerce through the narrow waterway after escalating Iranian threats.
Trump said Iran had already targeted vessels not related to the operation, including a South Korean cargo ship.
“Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to come and join the mission!” he added.
Cooper said the U.S. military is carrying out two simultaneous operations in two different bodies of water — one aimed at isolating Iran economically, the other at reopening maritime transit.
“We&#8217;re enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman. There is no commerce going into and out of Iran, and we will be sustaining this effort. Second, we&#8217;ve now opened a passage through the Strait of Hormuz to allow for the free flow of commerce to proceed,” he said, adding that the blockade has so far been 100% effective.
He said that the pathway, which was used by two merchant vessels flying U.S. flags earlier today, has received “great enthusiasm” from over 87 countries represented by the vessels “held hostage” in the Arabian Gulf by Iran’s threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
While the U.S. Navy is not personally escorting the vessels, it is protecting a corridor for them to pass through with large amounts of U.S. military assets.
“We are employing U.S. ballistic missile defense capable destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms—meaning under the sea, on the sea, and from the air—and then 15,000 service members to extend this defensive umbrella across the Strait of Hormuz to protect our forces and also, as committed, to defend commercial shipping,” Cooper said.
Aircraft, vessels, and personnel used in the efforts include A-10s, F-15s, F-16s, F/A-18s, F-35s, EA-18 Growlers, RC-135s, KC-46s, and KC-135 fixed-wing aircraft, as well as numerous U.S. warships, including destroyers, two carrier strike groups, an Amphibious Readiness Group, and the Marine Expeditionary Units. 
As the operations continue, Cooper said U.S. commanders on the scene “have all the authorities necessary to defend their units and to defend commercial shipping.”
“Iranian forces are strongly advised to remain well clear of U.S. assets and personnel operating in international waters in and near the Strait of Hormuz,” Cooper said.

Satellite Imagery Of The Strait Of Hormuz

Iran Violates Ceasefire By Firing Straight At Americans

Operation Epic Fury

Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Navy

As the conflict with Tehran has reached a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-peace-talks-stalemate">stalemate</a>, it is up to the United States to declare victory, but first, it must define what victory means. Three outcomes qualify. First, degrading Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal to the point that it no longer poses a credible threat to U.S. bases, allies, or the Strait of Hormuz. Second, dismantling its nuclear program by ending uranium enrichment and subjecting all facilities to inspections. Third, a systemic transfer of power in Tehran that establishes a pro-West government that represents the Iranian people rather than the current theocratic order. 
The third option is not only the most desirable but also the only plausible avenue, resolving the other two while reshaping the world. Eliminating Iran’s military capabilities would be costly and prolonged, and even then reversible so long as the regime remains in power. Islamic Republic <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/04/06/5-men-now-running-iran/">leaders</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-wont-negotiate-over-its-missile-capabilities-2026-02-11/">refuse</a> to even negotiate missile ranges, and the new Ayatollah sees <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/04/30/world/iran-vow-nuclear-tech/">enrichment</a> as a red line, a stance that hardens as the regime weakens. While regime change remains taboo to discuss, President Donald Trump is already bearing its costs without securing its outcome.
Every American president since 1979 has tried either to <a href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/97-231.html">contain</a> the Iran problem or to manage it through <a href="https://jinsa.org/jinsa-ceo-makovsky-on-obamas-unforced-errors-with-iran-in-the-weekly-standard/">appeasement</a>. Trump broke from that approach by seeking to resolve it. To do so, he must avoid a core miscalculation: the regime is structurally incapable of changing its behavior. Tehran’s missile arsenal and nuclear program are its primary points of leverage, and the premise that a durable diplomatic settlement can neutralize both ignores the historical reality that agreements tend to defer rather than remove the threat. An Islamist system built on anti-Americanism and the export of terrorism cannot abandon the very tools that sustain it. 
The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-us-narrow-differences-after-pakistani-mediation-splits-remain-senior-2026-04-16/">nuclear</a> file remains the lingering issue. Despite long-standing <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/04/iran-attacks-vessels-in-hormuz-avoids-concrete-stance-on-ceasefire-extension.php">differences</a> among the regime’s pillars, they remain aligned on preserving uranium enrichment to retain a pathway to weapons-grade material and maintain leverage. Late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/14/world/middleeast/seeking-nuclear-insight-in-fog-of-the-ayatollahs-utterances.html?_r=0#:~:text=But%20those%20comments,now%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20added.">drew</a> that lesson from Muammar Gaddafi, who gave up his nuclear program and was later overthrown. His successor, Mojtaba, is following his father’s logic. Tehran has chosen <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/06/israel-targets-irans-nuclear-sites-and-senior-military-figures.php">war</a> <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/02/us-and-israel-launch-extensive-military-campaign-against-iran-israel-says-supreme-leader-khamenei-killed.php">twice</a> rather than budge on enrichment and will do so again, while Trump cannot settle for another version of the deal he withdrew from.
On missiles, the campaign has dealt the most severe blow to Iran’s primary military asset, not only its arsenal but also its <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/us-israeli-strikes-hit-irans-missile-nuclear-political-and-repression-sites.php">manufacturing</a> base. More than 20,000 <a href="https://www.ajc.org/news/the-iran-strikes-explained-how-we-got-here-and-what-it-means">targets</a> across Iran were struck jointly by the U.S. and Israel, including missile bases, stockpiles, <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/us-israeli-campaign-hits-iranian-regimes-military-and-repression-apparatus-regime-forms-leadership-council-march-1-updates.php">launchers</a>, and key <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/us-israeli-strikes-continue-as-talks-over-strait-of-hormuz-stall-and-iran-intensifies-internal-crackdown.php#:~:text=Saeed%20Shamghadari%2C%20a%20university%20professor%20linked%20to%20missile%20development%2C%20was%20killed%20in%20a%20Tehran%20strike.">personnel</a> tied to their development. Before the April 7 <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/04/us-iran-agree-to-2-week-ceasefire-in-exchange-for-reopening-of-strait-of-hormuz.php">ceasefire</a>, Iran was launching significantly fewer medium-range ballistic missiles, the <a href="https://jinsa.org/irans-missile-launches-have-fallen-sharply-since-start-of-war-data-shows/">systems </a>it relies on to strike more distant targets such as Israel.
Without a doubt, the regime is significantly weaker than before the war, but it remains lethal. That is due to its cheaply produced yet extensive stockpile of short-range missiles and drones that can still strike <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/04/despite-ceasefire-iran-and-its-militias-continue-attacking-regional-states-april-2-8-updates.php">targets</a> across the Persian Gulf, paired with hundreds of thousands of ideologically devoted <a href="https://www.jns.org/opinion/ceasefire-with-tehran-doesnt-end-the-regimes-war-on-iranians#:~:text=In%20fairness%2C,across%20security%20forces.">personnel</a> willing to fight to martyrdom. 
Another challenge in assessing a military victory is how the U.S. and Israel present data on the regime’s missile and drone stockpiles. Both <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/25/iran-missiles-israel-air-defense/">share</a> <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/03/13/us-news/irans-missiles-down-90-drone-attacks-down-95-hegseth-says/">percentage </a>reductions to illustrate damage rather than providing baseline figures and what remains, making the true scale of degradation harder to gauge.
The war against the regime, despite the Islamic Republic being a nation-state, still reflects an asymmetric balance. The munitions used to destroy Iranian military sites are far more <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-war-iran-has-cost-25-billion-so-far-says-pentagon-official-2026-04-29/">expensive</a> than the targets they hit, while Tehran can disrupt the global economy with relatively <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/04/18/world/middleeast/iran-us-war-drones-cost.html">cheap</a> drones and missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. The regime’s bar is survival, while Trump is, and should be, pursuing a far more ambitious definition of victory.
This leaves a systemic transfer of power in Tehran as the only viable path to a historic breakthrough. The key is to level the playing field between regime forces and their only true existential threat: the Iranian people. The war has already set in motion most of the components required for regime collapse, tightening <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/01/blockade-pressure-mounts-as-washington-rejects-tehrans-proposal/">economic</a> pressure, <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/israel-intensifies-strikes-on-repression-sites-expands-outreach-to-iranians-as-regime-repression-deepens-march-8-10-updates.php">degrading </a>the repression apparatus, and pairing both with direct messaging so Iranians are prepared to shape what follows. <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/israel-shifts-to-hyperlocal-targeting-in-iran-as-regime-military-power-degrades-march-11-13-updates.php">Hyperlocal </a>strikes on internal security personnel proved a turning point, forcing these fighters to fear for their lives as much as ordinary Iranians do. The abrupt ceasefire cut short these dynamics before they could produce a decisive outcome.
The window for regime change remains open, as <a href="https://www.jns.org/opinion/ceasefire-with-tehran-doesnt-end-the-regimes-war-on-iranians">Iranians</a> still await the call from the president to take to the streets, a step Washington has <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/02/us-and-israel-launch-extensive-military-campaign-against-iran-israel-says-supreme-leader-khamenei-killed.php#:~:text=The%20conclusion%20of,this%20murderous%20regime.%E2%80%9D">signaled</a> more than <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603220220#:~:text=%22They%27re%20launching%20missiles%20and%20drones%20from%20populated%20areas%20and%20you%20need%20to%20stay%20inside%20for%20right%20now%2C%22%20he%20said.%20%22There%20will%20be%20a%20clear%20signal%20at%20some%20point%2C%20as%20the%20President%20has%20indicated%2C%20for%20you%20to%20be%20able%20to%20come%20out.%22">once</a>. The naval <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/01/blockade-pressure-mounts-as-washington-rejects-tehrans-proposal/">blockade </a>has already alarmed Tehran’s leadership, which faces the prospect of renewed unrest and growing difficulty paying its supporters. Washington should be prepared to press further while sustaining the economic pressure that is constraining cash flow and deepening public resentment.
Expanded support would require strikes not only on repression forces and military figures but also on the regime’s political leadership. In parallel, select dissident networks in major urban areas should be equipped to confront their oppressors. As mid- and lower-level personnel see leadership either eliminated or in hiding, while dissident cells operate across key cities, it reinforces the sense that the regime’s end is near and forces a <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-threatening-iranian-officers-on-the-phone-as-part-of-efforts-to-stir-unrest/">choice</a> between holding the line at great risk or defecting.
The <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-helping-iran-would-not-lead-us-a-new-quagmire">conditions</a> are in place. Iranians are overwhelmingly anti-Islamist, the region’s <a href="https://www.fdd.org/in_the_news/faq/2026/02/25/iran-faq-what-you-should-know/#:~:text=The%20confrontation%20is%20not%20with%20the%20Iranian%20nation%20but%20rather%20with%20its%20rulers.%20Iran%20is%20the%20home%20of%20the%20region%E2%80%99s%20most%20anti%2DAmerican%2C%20anti%2DWestern%2C%20and%20anti%2DIsraeli%20regime%20and%20its%20most%20pro%2DAmerican%2C%20pro%2DWestern%2C%20and%20pro%2DIsraeli%20population.">most</a> pro-American and pro-Israeli population, highly educated compared to their neighbors, and anchored by a strong national identity rooted in their ancient monarchy. They mobilized in the <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601092353">millions </a>in January 2026 behind Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the only viable transition figure.
The Iran war presents Trump with an opportunity more transformative than the collapse of the Soviet Union. A shift in power in Tehran would eliminate the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism and a global arms <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/iran-creeping-international-arms-market-212318">proliferator</a> that has fueled conflicts from Europe to Africa and supplied oil to China. Achieving this historic shift runs through the Iranian people.
Born and raised in Tehran, Janatan Sayeh is the Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Previously, he held various research roles at the International Republican Institute, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and the American Enterprise Institute. Sayeh studied Hebrew and Arabic at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and received his BA in political science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Supporters of Regime-Change in Iran Rally in L.A.

In Iran, Behavior Changes Only When The Regime Does

DW Opinion

Iran Nuclear Deal

Regime change

Terrorism

Iran’s oil sector is facing intensifying pressure as the United States tightens its control over the Strait of Hormuz, choking off exports and forcing the regime into increasingly risky moves that could have long-term consequences for one of its most critical economic lifelines.
President President Donald Trump has escalated the pressure campaign with the launch of “Project Freedom,” aimed at restoring secure commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. As part of that effort, U.S. forces recently escorted two U.S.-flagged merchant vessels safely through the strait, despite Iranian threats to attack any military vessels or commercial ships cooperating with its enemies.
“Those foreigners from thousands of kilometers away, who are greedily carrying out transgressions in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, have no place here except at the bottom of its waters,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a Thursday statement. “Iran&#8217;s new management of the Strait of Hormuz and the corresponding legal framework will secure comfort and progress for the benefit of all the nations of the region.”
Experts say Tehran’s options are narrowing: use the oil domestically, store it, or shut down production. None are particularly attractive, and each carries its own costs — especially shutdowns, which can permanently reduce how much oil wells can produce when brought back online.
“Their storage is getting full, so it is not a question of if they&#8217;re going to have to start to curtail production, it&#8217;s a question of when,” Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics, and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, told The Daily Wire.
Since the outbreak of the conflict in late February, 58 Iranian oil loadings — 35 from Kharg Island — have <a href="https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/iran-war-shipping-update-april-30-2026">reportedly</a> been tracked, representing roughly 72 million barrels and more than $5 billion in revenue for the regime.
During active fighting with the United States, but before the blockade, Iran continued exporting oil through its illicit ghost fleet. Shipments averaged about 2.1 million barrels per day between April 1 and April 13, in line with pre-war levels, but fell to roughly 567,000 barrels per day after the blockade took hold, according to <a href="https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/iran-war-shipping-update-april-30-2026">The Wall Street Journal</a>.
As of Thursday, U.S. Central Command said 44 commercial vessels had been directed to turn around or return to port as part of the blockade.
According to Meyer, the risks tied to shutting down production are not just economic, but technical. Curtailing output can cause long-term damage to oil wells, depending on several factors, including the well’s age, pressure of the reservoir, and pace of the shutdown.
“As a general matter, the older the well, the lower the pressure, and the quicker the shutdown, the higher the risk of damage to the well in the near term as well as the ability to bring that well back to the production levels that it was before the shutdown,” he said. 
Meyer explained that oil wells rely on a delicate internal balance of oil, gas, and water, as well as stable pressure. If production is cut too aggressively, that balance can be disrupted, making the effects long-lasting.
“If it’s an old well with low pressure and it was shut down very quickly, then the timeline for bringing it back online is much longer and the risk of permanent damage is very real,” Meyer said, noting that wells often return but with reduced output levels.
As storage capacity tightens, Iran has begun turning to improvised solutions to manage excess crude. The regime has explored alternative export routes, including limited overland shipments by rail to China, while increasingly relying on floating <a href="http://storage.as/">storage</a>.
The regime’s desperation was evident when it reactivated a derelict 30-year-old tanker, the Nasha, which had been sitting idle for years before being repurposed to store oil offshore. According to UANI, satellite imagery showed the vessel loading crude from a jetty on the western side of Kharg Island on April 26 before departing days later.
The tanker is estimated to provide only a day or two of additional storage. According to <a href="https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-blockade-iran-starts-feeling-the-heat">Kpler</a>, Iran may have roughly 20 days of usable storage remaining before it is forced to cut production.
According to Charlie Brown, a senior advisor to United Against Nuclear Iran, the Trump Administration&#8217;s pressure campaign is effectively targeting the regime.
“The regime’s economic vulnerability is far greater than its public messaging suggests,&#8221; Brown told The Daily Wire.&#8221;
Iran’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil export revenue and sustained maritime pressure is now constraining both exports and storage capacity at the same time.&#8221;
Brown warned the regime will face increasing difficulty sustaining its economic model.
“Iran can endure economic pain for a considerable period, but it cannot indefinitely sustain a wartime economy if oil revenues remain severely disrupted and Chinese buyers become more cautious about exposure to sanctions or interdiction risk,” he said. 
Despite the mounting strain, Iran has experience navigating similar situations. When the Trump administration intensified its sanctions campaign in 2018, Iranian oil exports effectively dropped to zero for months. The country managed the disruption without significant long-term damage to its production capacity and was able to ramp output back up to pre-sanctions levels once restrictions were lifted, according to an industry expert.
“I do think there is an unfortunate reality here that the Iranians do have experience managing their portfolio of wells during periods of fluctuating exports, and that might be an argument that they have the ability to manage this for longer than some people would expect,” the expert said.
While ordinary Iranians have long endured economic hardship, Brown said the current pressure campaign strikes more directly at the regime itself by threatening its ability to fund “regional military activities, internal repression apparatus, and patronage networks under prolonged export disruption.” 
And if the regime continues to put pressure on its own population, Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said it risks a reaction from its own people. 
“The Iranian people have endured an enormous amount of financial hardship over the last four-plus decades,” he said. “The regime risks triggering another uprising. The signs for such a renewed protest movement are already blinking red after the 40-day war, and the protests that preceded it. There is no way to know when any of this bubbles over.”

Mojtaba Khamenei poker

How Trump’s Blockade Is Making Iran Gamble With Its Oil Industry

Mojtaba Khamenei

Massachusetts Democrat Rep. Seth Moulton suggested that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth could be executed for war crimes.
CNN host Erin Burnett played an exchange Moulton had with Hegseth in which Moulton attacked the War Secretary for saying the U.S. military should &#8220;keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies” regarding the war with Iran, prompting Moulton to accuse Hegseth of inciting soldiers to commit war crimes.
Burnett then turned to Moulton and asked, “Do you believe that the Secretary of Defense is guilty of war crimes?”
“Absolutely,” Moulton answered. “I mean, he&#8217;s clearly behind the operation to shoot all these boats in the Caribbean when it&#8217;s very unclear that we actually have any confirmation that these so-called narco-terrorists — a term the administration invented to justify this action, are even on the boats. I mean, in fact, there&#8217;s a lot of evidence that these are just fishermen, you know, getting jobs, piloting these boats, trying to feed their families. There&#8217;s been press reporting on some of these individuals who&#8217;ve been killed who are clearly not criminals. And on top of that, we then have the strike where they came back and hit it again, a double tap, just purely to kill these survivors who were clinging to wreckage.”
Then Moulton went beyond the pale: “It’s interesting, Erin, back in World War II, the Allies tried Nazi submarine captains for doing this exact same thing. And guess what the conclusion was? They got executed.”
“Listen to that, Mr. Secretary,” he taunted.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
INSANE
Democrat Rep. Seth Moulton FLAT OUT LIES to defend narcoterrorists and compares our military to “Nazis.”
MOULTON: “Back in WWII the allies tried Nazi submarine captains for doing this exact same thing…they got executed. Listen to that Mr. Secretary [Hegseth].” <a href="https://t.co/gAMSaDJ6Gg">pic.twitter.com/gAMSaDJ6Gg</a>
&mdash; RNC Research (@RNCResearch) <a href="https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/2049634784884723721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 29, 2026</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
&nbsp;
In late March, Moulton appeared on CNN with host Anderson Cooper, where he huffed and puffed about the U.S. losing the war with Iran, saying:
<blockquote>
There is absolutely no plan. The administration clearly can&#8217;t even understand why they&#8217;re in this war, what their strategy is to get out of it. If you look every step of the way, they&#8217;re doing things, they&#8217;re changing their goals. They&#8217;re doing things that don&#8217;t even necessarily contribute to their goals. Apparently now, their primary goal is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which, let&#8217;s be clear, was open before Trump started this war of choice.
So, the reality is, at this moment, we are losing this war. If Trump were to stop the war tonight, he would have to negotiate with the Iranians to reopen the strait that they have closed. That&#8217;s why he&#8217;s begging, he&#8217;s begging our greatest adversary, the People&#8217;s Republic of China. The Chinese Communist Party. He&#8217;s asking to come and bail him out to reopen this Strait. It&#8217;s an unmitigated disaster. It&#8217;s very clear they don&#8217;t have a plan going forward.</blockquote>

MixCollage-01-May-2026-10-26-AM-450

UNHINGED: Dem Rep Compares Hegseth To Nazi War Criminals, Invokes Death Penalty

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The Daily Wire dives into the incredible details of one of America’s most daring rescue missions in a <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/daily-wire-explains-the-world-ep-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mini documentary</a> that hit the platform on Thursday.
Just over a month after the United States launched its massive military operation against Iran, a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down by Iranian forces on April 3, sending the fighter jet’s two crew members directly into enemy territory.
It marked the first time in more than 20 years that a U.S. warplane was lost to enemy fire, but President Donald Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth had a bigger problem: finding the missing Americans and bringing them home.
The jet’s pilot was rescued by U.S. forces within hours, but the weapons system officer, a colonel who ejected from the jet, vanished in some of the most remote and treacherous terrain on earth.
Back in Washington, U.S. officials quickly drew up a daring plan to rescue the colonel before Iranian forces could capture him. American officials knew the stakes. Either an American soldier would fall into the hands of a terrorist regime, die of dehydration, or the U.S. military would go into hostile territory and get him.
The next 48 hours would prove to be one of the greatest success stories in American military history, a rescue that President Donald Trump called an “Easter miracle.”
The Daily Wire’s “<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/daily-wire-explains-the-world-ep-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Race To Rescue</a>” provides a detailed account of the incredible mission to find the missing U.S. colonel and bring him home. “The Race To Rescue” is now available exclusively for DailyWire+ members.
<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/daily-wire-explains-the-world-ep-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WATCH: THE RACE TO RESCUE</a>
<iframe loading="lazy" title="The Race to Rescue | First Look" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_Vikl-XYz34?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

The Race To Rescue

How The U.S. Pulled Off One Of The Greatest Rescue Missions In Military History

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A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding for now, but pressure is mounting across multiple fronts.
Here is a breakdown of where the conflict stands:
<h3>Iran Floats Proposal, Sidesteps Nuclear Demands</h3>
The Iranian regime has reportedly floated a new proposal to the United States: end the war and lift the blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-offers-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-if-u-s-lifts-its-blockade-and-the-war-ends-officials-say">Associated Press</a>. The proposal does not immediately address U.S. demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program and instead calls for ending the conflict before any negotiations on the issue take place.
President Donald Trump is expected to meet with his top national security officials to discuss the situation in Iran, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/27/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel#cmoh5xuho00003b6q0dewnpeg">CNN reported</a>. The current ceasefire was extended for an unspecified period last week as Trump weighs his next moves. Options under consideration likely include resuming the U.S. bombing campaign, maintaining economic pressure and the naval blockade to force Iran back to the negotiating table, or pursuing a broader end to the war.
Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor, on Monday accused Tehran of stalling negotiations and humiliating the American government, saying Iran’s leadership is “very skillful at not negotiating” after U.S. envoys traveled for talks that yielded no results, according to Reuters.
“The Iranians are obviously very skilled ⁠at negotiating, or rather, very skillful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad ​and then leave again without any result,” <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/5850794-germany-chancellor-merz-iran-us/">Merz said</a>. “An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible.”
U.S. Blockade Chokes Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply as the U.S. Navy implemented a blockade on ships going to or from Iranian ports.
According to Reuters, only seven vessels have passed through the strait in the past day, down from the 125-140 that typically transited before Operation Epic Fury began in February.
At least six vessels carrying 10.5 million barrels of Iranian oil were forced back to port, according to the satellite tracker, <a href="https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2048431267742401020?s=20">TankerTrackers.com.</a> Two additional tankers carrying around four million barrels of Iranian oil reportedly managed to sail past the blockade on April 24.
Since the blockade was announced on April 13, about 37 vessels have been turned back, <a href="https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2048142422702510115">according to the U.S. Central Command</a>.
The U.S. has also upped its presence in the region with the arrival of the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft strike group to the Middle East. It joins the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford strike groups. Together, they bring more than 200 aircraft and approximately 15,000 Sailors and Marines to the region.
The Iranian regime is still attempting to assert its authority in the strait, despite its depleted navy. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security commission in Iran’s parliament, said the country’s armed forces would take full authority over the strait under a proposed law aimed at regulating transit and potentially barring “hostile vessels,” reported the <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-its-armed-forces-should-be-authority-for-strait-of-hormuz/">Times of Israel</a>. So far, Iran has used small vessels to intimidate and shoot at commercial vessels attempting to transit.
<h3>Iranian Diplomat On Tour</h3>
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is on a multi-stop “timely tour” to coordinate with key allies as tensions escalate with the United States.
Ahead of the trip, Araghchi announced he would visit Pakistan, Oman, and Russia to consult on regional developments, emphasizing that “our neighbors are our priority.”
In Pakistan, he described his visit as “very fruitful,” praising Islamabad’s role in attempting to restore peace in the region through mediating. He added that he has yet to see if the “U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy.”
In Oman, Araghchi <a href="https://x.com/araghchi/status/2048519460793761995">highlighted</a> discussions focused on the Strait of Hormuz, stressing ensuring “safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors and the world,” adding again that “our neighbors are our priority.”
During the current conflict, Iran has fired missiles or drones affecting at least a dozen countries across the region, including Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
Araghchi later traveled to Russia, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. According to The Times of Israel, Putin said Moscow would “do everything” possible to help secure peace in the Middle East and expressed hope that stability would return to the region. During the visit, Araghchi blamed the United States for the failure of recent negotiations, arguing that “excessive demands” from Washington derailed talks that had otherwise made progress.
“For our part, we will do everything that serves your interests, the interests of all the people of the region, so that peace can be achieved as soon as possible,” Russian state media quoted Putin as telling Araghchi.
Fighting Reignites Along Israel-Lebanon Border
Fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah is resuming despite an extended ceasefire.
Hezbollah launched a series of drone attacks in recent days, including a strike on Monday morning that triggered air-raid sirens across in northern Israel and sent thousands of civilians rushing to shelters.
The Israel Defense Forces said it fired an interceptor missile at the incoming UAV, but ultimately lost contact with the target. No injuries were reported, though additional alerts were activated over concerns of falling debris, and images circulated of children taking cover in shelters.
&nbsp;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
&#8220;הפסקת אש&#8221; בצפון: 
האזעקות בצהריים בשל חדירת שלושה כטבמים 
לגליל המערבי, תפסו תלמידים בבתי ספר בעיצומם של הלימודים. נותר להם לשכב ולשים ידיים על הראש. 
זו השיגרה כאן מאז שהוכרזה הפסקת האש בלבנון: ירי רקטות וכטבמים, פיצוצים, מטוסי קרב וכל מה שלא נופל תחת ההגדרה של הפסקת אש. <a href="https://t.co/OGXYlfOh0n">pic.twitter.com/OGXYlfOh0n</a>
— Rubi Hammerschlag | רובי המרשלג (@rubih67) <a href="https://twitter.com/rubih67/status/2048381773822726342?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2026</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The attack caused officials in northern border towns to suspend school and increase security restrictions to be stronger than those implemented by Israel’s official Home Front Command.
Israel has stepped up its military operations in Lebanon, carrying out a wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and southern regions. Targets included rocket-launching cells, a loaded launcher ready for immediate use, and weapons storage facilities. The military also said it has dismantled more than 50 terrorist sites in recent days, including a weapons cache discovered inside a children’s room.
The escalation comes despite a recent agreement to extend the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon by three weeks following meetings at the White House involving their ambassadors, President Donald Trump, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 
Following a meeting with the U.N.’s special coordinator for Lebanon, Gideon Sa&#8217;ar <a href="https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/2048745481543528640">said Monday</a> Hezbollah continues to violate the ceasefire “against Lebanon’s interests.”

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Where Things Stand In The Iran War Right Now

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning for another round of talks with Iranian representatives.
Leavitt said the discussions will be direct but facilitated by Pakistani intermediaries, whom she described as “incredible friends” throughout the negotiation process. According to Leavitt, Iranian officials requested the in-person meeting after President Donald Trump publicly called for talks.
“The president is dispatching Steve and Jared to go hear what they have to say,” Leavitt said. “We’re hopeful that it will be a productive conversation and hopefully move the ball forward toward a deal.”
The announcement comes as a second round of negotiations has yet to take place following lengthy talks earlier this month, which ended without an agreement after Iranian officials refused to concede on key aspects of their nuclear program.
Vice President JD Vance, who led the previous round of discussions, said at the time that the United States had presented what he described as its “final and best offer,” but Tehran declined to accept the terms.
According to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/24/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon?post-id=cmod2zf3l00003b6tid3t5lg4">CNN</a>, Vance is not expected to attend this latest round of talks because Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a senior figure seen by White House officials as leading Tehran’s delegation, is also not participating. Vance is expected to remain on standby and could travel to Islamabad if negotiations show signs of progress.
Despite not making a deal, Trump extended the two-week long ceasefire without an agreement while waiting for what he called a “unified” response from the Iranian government.
“President Trump has made his red lines throughout this entire process very clear. He was flexible in extending the ceasefire, and so Steve and Jared will be off,” Leavitt said.
The diplomatic push comes as Iran’s internal power structure appears increasingly unstable under the son and successor to former supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly recovering from severe injuries and has been largely sidelined from day-to-day governance while hardline military generals are holding significant power, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/burned-and-disfigured-irans-nepo-supreme-leader-needs-plastic-surgery?author=Kassy+Akiva&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=0&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Burned+And+Disfigured%3A+Iran%E2%80%99s+Nepo+Supreme+Leader+Needs+Plastic+Surgery">according to</a> a report from The New York Times.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi <a href="https://x.com/araghchi/status/2047685407941296331">confirmed</a> he is traveling to Islamabad as part of a broader “timely tour” that will also include stops in Muscat and Moscow. He said the purpose of the trip is to coordinate with regional partners and consult on ongoing developments.
The diplomatic push comes as Trump said Thursday he is in no rush to reach a deal.
“For those people, fewer in number now than ever before, that are reading The Failing New York Times, or watching Fake News CNN, that think that I am ‘anxious’ to end the War (if you would even call it that!) with Iran, please be advised that I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position. I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!” Trump said.
Trump also pointed to what he described as Iran’s deteriorating military position and the impact of the ongoing U.S. blockade, arguing that leverage remains firmly in Washington’s hands as negotiations continue.
“Iran’s Navy is lying at the bottom of the Sea, their Air Force is demolished, their Anti Aircraft and Radar Weaponry is gone, their leaders are no longer with us, the Blockade is airtight and strong and, from there, it only gets worse — Time is not on their side!” he added.

Trump Monitors Military Operations at White House

All Eyes On Islamabad As High-Stakes U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Ramp Up

Jared Kushner

Pakistan

Steve Witkoff

Iran’s newly installed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly recovering from severe injuries and may require plastic surgery after an airstrike that killed his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei.
The attack, which also killed his wife and son, has left the 56-year-old leader physically debilitated, largely isolated, and increasingly reliant on hardline military commanders to govern, according to the New York Times, citing senior Iranian officials.
Khamenei has been cut off from most officials as he recovers, surrounded primarily by medical staff amid concerns that revealing his location could make him a target, according to the report. Despite his condition, officials say he remains mentally alert and continues to weigh in on major decisions, though day-to-day authority has increasingly shifted toward hardline military commanders.
Questions about his health have intensified in recent weeks. Since being selected by Iran&#8217;s Assembly of Experts following his father’s death in March, Khamenei has not made a public appearance, with only written statements released in his name. 
The Times reported that his injuries include significant damage to one leg and one hand, requiring multiple surgeries, as well as severe facial burns that have limited his ability to speak and could likely necessitate reconstructive surgery.
Iranian regime officials have reportedly taken dramatic steps to conceal Khamenei&#8217;s location from the United States and Israel. The regime is relying on handwritten messages delivered through a network of trusted couriers traveling by car and motorcycle to avoid detection.
Born into Iran’s ruling elite, Khamenei followed a path that blended religious study with military involvement. As a teenager, he joined an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps brigade known as the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. He later completed his education at a theological seminary, attaining the rank of ayatollah, and worked closely within his father’s inner circle, helping coordinate military and intelligence operations.
Despite his influence behind the scenes, he has never held elected office or served in a formal senior government role. He has also faced international scrutiny, including sanctions from the U.S. Treasury Department in 2019, and has been accused of involvement in the regime’s crackdown on the 2009 Green Movement protests.
The elder Khamenei was selected as supreme leader following the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who overthrew Iran’s dynastic shah during the 1979 revolution. With his son now assuming the position, the transition has raised questions about whether the Islamic Republic is drifting toward another form of dynastic rule.
His rise to power followed the sudden killing of his father on the first day of the United States and Israel’s attack on the Iranian regime. But unlike his father — who maintained a tight grip over nearly all aspects of the government and the IRGC — Khamenei lacks the same religious authority and political stature and appears far more dependent on military leaders.
With Khamenei sidelined by his injuries, hardline generals have taken on a dominant role in decision-making, shaping Iran’s posture at a critical moment. Their growing influence is believed to have played a role in Tehran’s refusal to participate in a second round of talks with American officials in Pakistan this week.
Following the Times report, senior Iranian officials moved quickly to project unity, issuing closely aligned statements reaffirming loyalty to the regime — even as military leaders are reportedly taking on a larger role in decision-making. President <a href="https://x.com/drpezeshkian/status/2047378690284093905">Masoud Pezeshkian</a> insisted there are no internal divisions, writing, “In Iran there are no ‘hardliners’ or ‘moderates’… only unity and obedience to the Supreme Leader,” while Parliament Speaker <a href="https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2047358416989847705">Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf</a> and judiciary chief <a href="https://x.com/ejei_org/status/2047354278847643748">Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje&#8217;i</a> echoed the same message.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Son Of Irans Supreme Leader

Burned And Disfigured: Iran’s Nepo Supreme Leader Needs Plastic Surgery

As the risk of fighting between the United States and Iran threatens to reignite, China is caught in a bind, trying to protect its interests without getting dragged into the conflict.
Although China may soon feel pressure from reduced energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Beijing’s approach so far has been defined by restraint, risk management, and opportunism, according to experts interviewed by The Daily Wire.
“For Beijing, the primary objective is to mitigate the downside,” said Elizabeth Economy, a Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution with expertise on Chinese domestic and foreign policy. “This includes navigating through the threat of a global economic recession, managing its disparate relations with countries in the Middle East, and ensuring that it maintains access to the energy it needs.”
Roughly 45% to 50% of China’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In 2025, more than half of its crude oil and nearly one-third of its liquefied natural gas came from the Middle East, <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security/">according to</a> Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
Official Chinese government data shows 42% of its crude (about 4.9 million barrels per day) comes from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. An estimated additional 12% comes from Iran, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-heavy-reliance-iranian-oil-imports-2026-01-13/">Kpler</a>, even though Beijing has reported no Iranian imports since 2022. Oil from the Iranian-linked illicit “dark fleet” is often relabeled as from other countries, or transferred to different ships to disguise its origin because of U.S. sanctions.
<div id="attachment_1081679" style="width: 471px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1081679" class="size-large wp-image-1081679" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2271049040-461x576.jpg" alt="" width="461" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2271049040-461x576.jpg 461w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2271049040-240x300.jpg 240w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2271049040-768x960.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2271049040.jpg 819w" sizes=" (max-width: 461px) 100vw, 461px" />Infographic with map showing how oil from Iran is transported to China circumventing sanctions with transfers to other vessels near Singapore (Graphic by AFP via Getty Images)</div>
The U.S.-imposed blockade on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and its coastline has put increasing pressure on the regime and its primary buyer: China. 
“Beijing has reportedly been in contact with Tehran on shipping and de-escalation issues and has urged restraint,” Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.
One vessel that drew international attention this week was the Rich Starry. A sanctioned-tanker bound for China and carrying roughly 250,000 barrels of methanol loaded in the United Arab Emirates, it appeared to transit the Strait of Hormuz before turning back toward Iranian waters after encountering the blockade.
The United States expanded the blockade last week to target Iranian-linked sanctioned vessels worldwide. These ships, known as the “dark fleet,” have allowed Tehran to continue exporting oil despite sanctions by using tankers with obscured ownership, falsified tracking data, and other methods to conceal the origin of Iranian crude — much of which flows to China.
That expanded effort was enforced in the Indo-Pacific for the first time this week, marking a shift beyond the Middle East as U.S. forces intercepted and boarded the Iran-linked sanctioned M/T Tifani.
Even if the blockade continues, China has significant reserves to cushion the impact of the blockade or conflict in the short term.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.⁰⁰As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit… <a href="https://t.co/EGwDe3dBI3">pic.twitter.com/EGwDe3dBI3</a>
— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) <a href="https://twitter.com/DeptofWar/status/2046544038812156177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2026</a></blockquote>
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“The impact on China’s energy access appears relatively limited,” said Singleton. “China has spent years building up significant strategic reserves and investing in alternative energy sources, including nuclear and renewables, to buffer against supply shocks.”
According to geospatial analytics firm Kayrros, China had roughly 1.39 billion barrels of oil in storage — enough to cover about 120 days of net crude imports at 2025 levels. Additional oil is still in transit, awaiting customs clearance, or in floating storage in Asia.
Still, those buffers are not a long-term solution. Beijing may eventually turn to demand reduction measures, including curbing consumption or allowing state-owned energy firms to raise prices, according to the Columbia University-run center.
Smaller Chinese refineries, known as “teapot refineries,” could feel the pressure first. Many shifted from Venezuelan crude to cheap Iranian oil after the United States moved against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Operating on thin margins, these refiners are particularly vulnerable to price spikes or prolonged disruption.
“In terms of price, China is facing the same problem the rest of the world is,” Michael Sobolik, a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute focusing on U.S.-China relations said. “Their smaller refiners are struggling, for sure. But in terms of supply, Beijing will be fine, at least for now.”
“But the longer this conflict goes on, the tougher it&#8217;ll become,” he added.
China’s reliance on Iranian oil also creates broader diplomatic challenges.
After the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in Operation Epic Fury, the regime responded with rocket and drone attacks on its Arab neighbors, including Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — many of which China depends on for energy and trade.
That leaves Beijing trying to maintain ties with both Iran and its regional rivals at the same time.
Sobolik said China’s own role in supporting Iran’s missiles adds another layer of complexity.
“It supplied rocket fuel for Iranian missiles, and Tehran has fired those missiles at its Arab neighbors,” Sobolik said. “Beijing needs good relations with those countries for energy reasons, so Beijing may encounter some difficult diplomatic dynamics ahead.”
Though a continued conflict could force China to diversify or take sides, experts say a major shift is unlikely for now.
“Iran has historically been a discounted and politically useful supplier for Beijing,” said Singleton. “Over time, this could create stronger incentives for China to diversify supply, but a full realignment would likely require a more durable disruption or a fundamentally different regime in Tehran.”
Though China was rumored to play a role in pushing negotiations that led to the April 8 ceasefire, experts say Beijing’s role may have been more limited.
“It looks like China leaned on Iran to accept a round of negotiations in Pakistan,” said Sobolik. However, he cautioned that Beijing’s influence over Tehran has clear limits.
“China can’t guarantee Iran’s safety, nor can they compel the regime to give up its quest for nuclear weapons,” Sobolik said.
China also refrained from publicly taking a high-profile diplomatic role in negotiations, to have flexibility and avoid being blamed if talks failed. 
Economy said this approach “minimizes China’s political risk and enables Beijing to avoid blame or embarrassment if the negotiations stall or collapse.” It also helps China avoid being “called out for hypocrisy when it talks about protection of international law and respect for sovereignty, given its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.”
The Iran conflict may be a topic in the upcoming U.S.-China summit scheduled for May 14–15, when President Donald Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping in China, but experts say the conflict has not significantly damaged relations between the two countries.
“It has introduced additional friction, particularly around energy flows and the blockade, but it does not appear to have fundamentally altered the broader trajectory of the relationship,” said Singleton. “Both sides still seem interested in managing tensions and preserving space for engagement where possible.”
Economy offered a similar assessment, saying the conflict has not derailed ties ahead of the summit, which remains a priority for both governments.
<div id="attachment_1081683" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-1081683" class="wp-image-1081683 size-medium" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2243546978-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2243546978-300x200.jpg 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2243546978-864x576.jpg 864w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2243546978-768x512.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2026/04/GettyImages-2243546978.jpg 1024w" sizes=" (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />US President Donald Trump (L) and China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping shake hands as they arrive for talks at the Gimhae Air Base, located next to the Gimhae International Airport in Busan on October 30, 2025. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)</div>
“I don&#8217;t think it has soured the relationship,” Economy said. “The summit remains a priority for both Trump and Xi, and the issues they will be discussing are largely bilateral in nature.”
She added that the meeting could still be postponed if the blockade or a more active conflict against Iran is ongoing. 
“The biggest focus for the summit — barring a new major international crisis — will be trade,” Economy said. “It is the one channel that both countries are most eager to stabilize.”
Sobolik noted that both Trump and China have “been careful to maintain positive rhetoric,” with one exception: reports that China was considering selling surface-to-air missiles to Iran.
“There were reports that China was about to sell surface-to-air missiles to Iran, which would&#8217;ve targeted U.S. helicopters and close air support planes flying over Iran,” he said, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also threatened secondary sanctions on Chinese banks with Iranian accounts.
China responded by denying the reports, calling them “purely fabricated” and threatening to take “countermeasures” if such tariff hikes were implemented.
China is not simply reacting to the ongoing conflict — it is also looking for openings to advance its broader geopolitical vision.
“Is there an opportunity to demonstrate the value of China’s alternative order,” Economy said, “for example by underscoring the value of mediation over military action and the weakness of the U.S.-led alliance system in managing the conflict?”
That balancing act of minimizing risk while probing for advantage has become the defining feature of China’s response to the war.

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China Tries To Play Both Sides In Iran, But Cracks Are Starting To Show

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