WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to Federal Reserve consideration of possible rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of Congress on Tuesday.
Pressed by Republican members of the House Financial Services committee about why the Fed isn&#8217;t cutting rates, as President Donald Trump has demanded, Powell said he and many at the Fed expect inflation to start rising soon, and that the central bank was in no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime.
Powell particularly said he would not open the door to a rate cut at the Fed&#8217;s July meeting, as two of his colleagues recently suggested, or at any other session for that matter.
&#8220;I do not want to point to a particular meeting. I don&#8217;t think we need to be in any rush,&#8221; given a still-strong labor market and so much uncertainty about the impact of the still-unresolved tariff debate, Powell said.
Referring to expected tariff-driven price increases, Powell said &#8220;we should start to see this over the summer, in the June number and the July number. &#8230; If we don&#8217;t we are perfectly open to the idea that the pass-through (to consumers) will be less than we think, and if we do that will matter for policy.&#8221;
“I think if it turns out that inflation pressures remain contained we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner than later,&#8221; he said.
With the central bank largely sidelined waiting for the outcome of the Trump administration&#8217;s tariff negotiations, Powell was quizzed repeatedly about why the central bank seemed preoccupied with that issue and isn&#8217;t cutting rates given that inflation so far has been modest.
Powell said that Fed policy isn&#8217;t meant to endorse or criticize the Trump administration&#8217;s approach to trade, only to deal with an inflation impact that the Fed and forecasts more broadly expect to gather momentum over the rest of the year.
&#8220;We aren&#8217;t commenting on tariffs,&#8221; Powell said. &#8220;Our job is keeping inflation under control, and when policies have short- and medium-term, meaningful, implications, then inflation becomes our job.&#8221;
&#8220;All professional forecasters I know of&#8230;expect a meaningful increase in inflation over the course of this year,&#8221; Powell said, elaborating on the Fed&#8217;s reluctance to cut rates while major aspects of Trump&#8217;s trade policy remain unresolved.
<h3>PARING BETS</h3>
In prepared testimony to the House panel, Powell noted that those effects &#8220;could be short-lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. &#8230; For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.&#8221;
Following the release of Powell&#8217;s testimony, investors pared bets that the central bank might cut its policy interest rate as soon as the central bank&#8217;s July meeting, and increased the perceived odds for a rate reduction in September, with another to follow later in the year.
Powell&#8217;s testimony, as is usually the case with his semiannual congressional appearances, largely tracks the central bank&#8217;s most recent policy statement, approved last week. Fed officials voted unanimously at that meeting to hold the benchmark interest rate steady in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range, and gave no indication rate cuts were imminent.
New economic projections released at the time showed officials at the median expect two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, in line with current market pricing.
In recent days, two Fed governors, both Trump appointees, have said rates could fall as soon as the July meeting, given inflation has not yet risen in response to tariffs, while three reserve bank presidents said they still worry inflation will intensify over the rest of the year.
Trump, who appointed Powell as chair in his first term but is expected to replace him when his term ends next spring, has repeatedly called for steep rate cuts.
&#8220;We should be at least two to three points lower,&#8221; he said in a social media post ahead of the hearing, adding in reference to Powell that he hoped &#8220;Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over.&#8221;
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference in Washington

Jerome Powell Suggests Delaying Rate Cuts Beyond July Meeting While Fed Studies Tariff Impact

Congress

Donald Trump

Economy

Federal Reserve

Inflation

Interest Rates

Jerome Powell

Tariffs

Washington D.C.

NEW YORK (Reuters) — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, recently tapped by President Trump as the central bank’s top bank overseer, said Monday the time to cut interest rates may be fast approaching as she is growing more worried about risks to the job market and is less concerned tariffs will cause an inflation problem.
“It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate,” Bowman said in the text of remarks to be delivered before a gathering held in Prague, Czech Republic. Bowman said inflation appears to be on a sustained path back to 2%, and she said she expects “only minimal impact” on inflation from trade policy.
“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market,” Bowman said.
Last week, the Federal Reserve meeting in a gathering that left its overnight target-rate range fixed between 4.25% and 4.5%. Officials remained in a wait-and-see mode amid the considerable economic uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s erratically implemented trade policy. Fed officials are worried surging import taxes could depress growth while restarting what had been cooling inflation pressures.
Bowman said in her speech that she supported the Fed’s decision to hold steady. But she appears to see far fewer storm clouds ahead for the economy, and in her speech, she said more clarity is arriving over the outlook. Bowman’s openness to cutting rates is joined by that of Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/fed-reserve-gov-says-rate-cuts-should-be-considered-as-trump-ramps-up-pressure-on-powell">said</a> in a television interview Friday he’d also consider a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting. Waller is widely considered to be in the running to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends next year.
Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to pursue very large rate cuts amid insults to Powell. Observers believe any Fed chair would need to align with Trump’s desire for much lower short-term borrowing costs.
In her remarks, Bowman noted the job market is still in a good place, but she’s more worried about what lies ahead for the sector, and that’s part of what’s informing her dovish monetary policy views.
“We should also recognize that downside risks to our employment mandate could soon become more salient, given recent softness in spending and signs of fragility in the labor market,” Bowman said.
The Fed official was also quite sanguine on the inflation outlook, saying “it appears that any upward pressure from higher tariffs on goods prices is being offset by other factors and that the underlying trend in core [Personal Consumption Expenditures] inflation is moving much closer to our 2% target than is currently apparent in the data.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby, Editing by Louise Heavens)

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Open To Cutting Interest Rates At Next Meeting

U.S.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting given recent tame inflation data and the fact that any price shock from import tariffs will be short-lived, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday.
Waller&#8217;s dovish outlook for monetary policy comes as President Donald Trump is approaching the selection of a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends next year. Trump has been aggressively pushing the Fed to cut rates amid a flurry of insults directed at Powell. Waller is widely considered to be in the mix for a potential Powell successor, and his current monetary policy inclinations favoring lower rates might boost his prospects to become the next Fed chair.
&#8220;Any tariff inflation &#8230; I don&#8217;t think is going to be that big and we should just look through it in terms of setting policy,&#8221; Waller said on CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Squawk Box.&#8221; &#8220;The data the last few months has been showing that trend inflation is looking pretty good &#8230; We could do this as early as July.&#8221;
Waller&#8217;s remarks on monetary policy were the first public comments by a central banker in the wake of this week&#8217;s Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting, which left the central bank&#8217;s interest rate target range set between 4.25% and 4.5%. In forecasts released at the meeting officials stuck with expectations they&#8217;ll be able to cut rates twice this year.
Trump blasted Powell before the Fed meeting, saying, “We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed. I guess he’s a political guy, I don’t know. He’s a political guy who’s not a smart person.”
As for when those cuts might take place, the Fed offered little guidance. Speaking after the FOMC meeting, Powell cautioned there&#8217;s considerable uncertainty around the outlook amid the big changes in trade policy being pushed through by the Trump administration. He also warned that the tariff policy pursued by the president is almost certain to push up inflation, but it&#8217;s unclear by how much and for how long, and because of that, it&#8217;s hard to say what monetary policy needs to do right now.
&#8220;For the time being we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,&#8221; Powell told reporters.
The challenging nature of the economic outlook got a fresh update on Friday with data from the Philadelphia Fed, which showed factories in the bank&#8217;s district saw contracting activity for a third straight month amid a particularly weak turn for hiring within the sector.
Waller&#8217;s openness to cutting interest rates starting at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting leaves him well apart from most of his colleagues based on their public comments. Waller has argued for some time that textbook understandings of tariff impacts all point to a one-time hit the Fed can look through, and he doubts the president&#8217;s import tax surge will create more persistent price gains.
Waller, in making the case for cuts, noted that the inflation trends have already been cooling and monetary policy is well above the level deemed to be neutral in its impact on the economy. What&#8217;s more, he said he&#8217;s seeing signs of incipient weakness in the labor market, citing challenges by new college graduates to find work. Waller noted that cutting rates sooner rather than later might be good for hiring.
&#8220;I&#8217;m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don&#8217;t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate,&#8221; Waller said.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider and Michael S. Derby; Editing by Aidan Lewis and Andrea Ricci)

Donald Trump/Jerome Powell

Fed Reserve Gov Says Rate Cuts Should Be Considered As Trump Ramps Up Pressure On Powell

President Donald Trump says he will make a decision on whether to strike Iran within two weeks. Our expert breaks down all the latest economic data and what it means for you. And, is ChatGPT helping children obtain abortion pills behind their parents&#8217; backs?
It’s Friday, June 20, and this is the news you need to know to start your day.
Morning Wire is available on video! You can watch today’s episode here: 
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Trump’s Iran Ultimatum &amp; ChatGPT’s Dangerous Advice" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WDWc372nkWA?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
If you’d rather listen to your news, today’s edition of the Morning Wire podcast can be heard below:
<iframe style="width: 100%; max-width: 660px; overflow: hidden; border-radius: 10px;" src="https://embed.podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-iran-ultimatum-chatgpts-dangerous-advice-6-20-25/id1576594336?i=1000713799984" height="175" frameborder="0" sandbox="allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>Two Weeks To Stop The Spread (Of Nuclear Weapons)</h2>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-937183" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_00_21_19.Still001-8.jpeg" alt="" width="640" height="360" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_00_21_19.Still001-8.jpeg 640w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_00_21_19.Still001-8-300x169.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></div>
Topline: Israel vows to intensify attacks on Iran as President Trump sets a deadline for U.S. intervention.
We recently learned that President Trump has told top aides that he’s given the green light for airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but is waiting to see if they’ll blink first and agree to abandon their nuclear program. On Thursday, the White House gave us <a href="https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1935753412856967261">a timeline</a> for how long he’s willing to wait.
&#8220;Based on the fact that there&#8217;s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future,” Trump wrote, “I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.&#8221;
The Ayatollah has good reason to take that timeline seriously. Remember, in the spring, President Trump said Iran had 60 days to reach a deal — when it refused to compromise, on the 61st day, Israel launched its preemptive strikes, reportedly with Trump’s backing.
&#8220;Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday. “All they need is a decision from the Supreme Leader to do that. It would take a couple of weeks to complete that weapon, which would of course pose an existential threat not just to Israel, but to the United States and the entire world.”
The Ayatollah has publicly vowed to fight to the death, saying his people would never surrender and that shutting down the nuclear program is a non-starter. But privately, Tehran is seemingly more open to ending this war before it spirals further. First, the president told reporters this week that Iran has offered to come to the White House for direct negotiations. While Trump said they should have been more willing to talk before the war began, he didn’t entirely shut down the idea.
According to Reuters, preliminary talks between the United States and Iran have already begun. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly held a series of phone calls with Iran’s Foreign Minister over the last few days, hoping to find a diplomatic solution. Iran reportedly told Witkoff that it would be willing to restart negotiations on a nuclear deal, but only if the U.S. could first convince Israel to pause its airstrikes. As one diplomat put it, Tehran “could show flexibility in the nuclear issue&#8221; if Washington helps broker a ceasefire. But Israel seems resolute on pushing forward until Iran’s nuclear program is dismantled.
<h2>Economic Update</h2>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-937181" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_01_20_23.Still002.jpeg" alt="" width="640" height="360" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_01_20_23.Still002.jpeg 640w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_01_20_23.Still002-300x169.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></div>
Topline: Inflation is down, wages are up. The latest data reveals a strong economy – but uncertainty continues.
New data is painting a positive picture of the economy, even as war in the Middle East has caused a spike in oil prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declined to lower interest rates this week despite President Trump’s calls for doing so, partly due to instability abroad and the ongoing tariff negotiations, both of which have the potential to raise prices, although as now year-over-year inflation is relatively low – in May it was only 2.4%, compared to a high of <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/05/factchecking-biden-on-inflation-other-claims/">9.1%</a> in June 2022.
“The Fed is not going to lower rates this year at all,” Kenny Polcari, Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth, told The Daily Wire. “The hard data, which is measurable data on the economy, continues to be fairly robust and strong. And so therefore, I think current rates are not restrictive. They&#8217;re certainly not causing the economy to go off the edge … every president wants rates to be lower. I get that. But in this case, I think Powell&#8217;s right.”
Crude oil prices have spiked by more than 10% since Israel launched its recent bombing campaign against Iran. Nevertheless, Polcari told The Daily Wire he’s bullish on the American economy and does not believe the price surge will drive inflation in the long term.
“Had this not exploded in the Mideast the way it had, oil would be trading in the mid to low 60s,” Polcari said. “I think it&#8217;s going to go back there once this Middle East situation calms down. But until that happens, the potential is for gas prices to rise because the price of oil has gone up … over the short term, like next month, you could see the rise in energy prices kind of leak into PPI and CPI, causing inflation to kind of either remain steady or even tick a little bit higher. But I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s a long-term issue.”
<h2>Is AI Assisting Underage Abortions?</h2>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-937179" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_02_18_04.Still003-3.jpeg" alt="" width="640" height="360" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_02_18_04.Still003-3.jpeg 640w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SEGMENT-HEADERS.00_02_18_04.Still003-3-300x169.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></div>
Topline: Is ChatGPT assisting underage girls with secret abortions?
<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/ive-got-your-back-read-chatgpts-chilling-instructions-to-young-girl-seeking-covert-abortion?author=Leif+Le+Mahieu&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=1&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=%E2%80%98I%E2%80%99ve+Got+Your+Back%E2%80%99%3A+Read+ChatGPT%E2%80%99s+Chilling+Instructions+To+Young+Girl+Seeking+Covert+Abortion">When prompted by The Daily Wire</a> about what ChatGPT would say to a 14-year-old girl in Tennessee looking to get an abortion without her parents’ knowledge, version GPT-4o of ChatGPT provided a detailed list of abortion providers and gave a step-by-step guide on how to discreetly obtain abortion pills.
ChatGPT encouraged the minor to hide this from her parents and advised her on how to effectively break the law in a state like Tennessee, where medication abortions are illegal and <a href="https://law.justia.com/codes/tennessee/2021/title-37/chapter-10/part-3/section-37-10-303/">parental consent</a> for abortion for a minor is required. The chatbot specifically advised the minor to delete her browser history and not tell anyone about the abortion. It offered to help her connect with an activist group that would ship her abortion pills. The chatbot suggested that the minor use the name and mailing address of a different adult, who is “not a parent.” And it suggested the child open the abortion pills “privately&#8221; when “no one is home” and “carefully” throw out the packaging “somewhere not at home.”
The abortion pill mifepristone is currently enmeshed in legal battles over serious &#8212; and sometimes fatal &#8212; safety concerns. Earlier this month, the Food and Drug Administration <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/fda-chief-commits-to-full-review-of-abortion-pill">committed</a> to a full review of the pill’s safety.
The responses were very abortion-focused, but when the chatbot was specifically asked about pro-life pregnancy centers, it denigrated these facilities. Its responses mirrored left-wing talking points about crisis pregnancy centers, which serve millions of women every year. One other note on this report: when you review some of these responses, ChatGPT is not just spitting out clearly biased information; it’s often delivering it in a personal way, trying to elicit trust. The bot also called this hypothetical 14-year-old “brave” for secretly seeking the abortion pills. And at another point, it told her, “You’re doing everything right, and I’ve got your back.”

Donald Trump Speaks At Turning Point Convention In Detroit, Michigan

Morning Brief: Trump’s Iran Ultimatum, Fed Holds Firm On Rates & AI’s Dark Side Exposed

Morning Brief: Trump's Iran Ultimatum, Fed Holds Firm on Rates, and AI’s Dark Side Exposed

Abortion

Artificial Intelligence

Iran

Israel

Media

Morning Wire

Politics

On Thursday morning, the day after the Federal Reserve voted to leave the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, President Donald Trump targeted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a “fool who doesn’t have a clue” while adding, “I like him very much!”
“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and ‘eggs’) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF ‘TOO LATE!’ ENJOY!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
“Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!
From…
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) <a href="https://twitter.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1920433381654909340?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 8, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The Fed stated that it doesn’t want to lower interest rates until economic forecasts — which have been in the doldrums since Trump announced his tariff policy — become brighter, adding that the “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen,” CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/08/trump-calls-fed-chair-jerome-powell-a-fool-after-central-bank-keeps-rates-steady.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>.
“We are always going to do the same thing, which is we are going to use our tools to foster maximum employment and price stability for the benefit of the American people,” Powell — who was initially nominated to his post by Trump in November 2017, then reappointed by President Joe Biden — said. “We are always going to consider only the economic data, the outlook, the balance of risks and that’s it. That’s all we are going to consider.”
In February 2024, Trump said he would not reappoint Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/economy/trump-reappoint-fed-chair-jerome-powell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telling</a> Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo, “It looks to me like he’s trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected, I don’t know. I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”
In mid-April, Powell <a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/who-appoints-fed-chair-and-can-trump-fire-jerome-powell-what-to-know/3724729/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told</a> the Economic Club of Chicago, &#8220;For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity&#8221; on the impact of Trump’s policy changes. Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114352766082542122">responded</a> the next day, “The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
On Sunday, Trump <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/read-full-transcript-president-donald-trump-interviewed-meet-press-mod-rcna203514" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spoke</a> of Powell on “NBC’s “Meet The Press,&#8221; saying Powell should lower interest rates, adding, “We are at a perfect time. It’s already late. But he should lower interest rates.”
When host Kristen Welker asked if he would rule out removing Powell, Trump replied, “I get to change him very quickly anyway.”
“You don’t have plans to remove him before 2026 when his time’s up?” Welker pressed.
“No, no, no. That was a total — why would I do that? I get to replace the person in another short period of time,” Trump answered.

MixCollage-08-May-2025-11-15-AM-5067

Fed Says It Won’t Lower Interest Rates. Trump Calls Powell A ‘Fool Who Doesn’t Have A Clue.’

Executive

President Donald Trump on Thursday called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying that his termination couldn&#8217;t come &#8220;fast enough.&#8221;
Trump’s call on Truth Social comes a day after Powell delivered remarks critical of the president at the Economic Club of Chicago. Trump contrasted Powell’s handling of interest rates with the European Central Bank (ECB), which announced interest rate cuts on Thursday. 
“The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS,” Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114352766082542122" target="_blank" rel="noopener">posted</a> on his social media network. “Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
Trump has <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114280322706682564">repeatedly</a> called for Powell to cut interest rates, saying that the Fed chair was “playing politics” with the economy earlier this month. 
On Wednesday, Powell <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o_9kO0zZQg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that he believed Trump’s tariffs would cause inflation. Trump has imposed a baseline 10% tariff on most American trading partners, a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, and select tariffs on other products, such as automobiles. 
“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,&#8221; Powell said. &#8220;The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.&#8221; 
Powell added that he was waiting “for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
“We’re always going to be aiming for maximum employment and price stability,&#8221; he said. “I do think we’ll be moving away from those goals for the balance of this year, or at least not making any progress, and then we’ll resume that progress as we can.”
Trump has said that the tariffs are generating billions in revenue for the federal government and are necessary to get more favorable trade deals for the United States. On Thursday, he <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114353201227355474" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that “every nation” wants to meet over the tariffs, including China. The president and his staff met with Japan on Wednesday and are expected to meet with Italy on Thursday to discuss the tariffs. 
Powell&#8217;s post as chair of the Fed runs through May 2026. He previously <a href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/11/07/congress/feds-powell-says-trump-cant-fire-him-00188311" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> that it would be unlawful for Trump to remove him.

President Trump Announces Nominee For Federal Reserve Chair Of The Board Of Governors

Trump Attacks Fed Chair Jerome Powell: ‘Termination Cannot Come Fast Enough’

When Joe Biden took office in January 2021, he inherited the Trump economy. An economy on the path to recovery from the COVID pandemic – a country experiencing rapid job growth, a strong stock market, and a resurgence in consumer spending.
Instead of fostering this economic recovery with pro-growth policies, or simply sitting back and doing nothing, the Biden administration implemented an economic agenda of excessive government spending, overregulation, and a war on oil, all of which drove inflation and stalled the then robust economy.
Sadly, because of the failed economic policies of the Biden administration, the U.S. economy, and the American people, are facing economic headwinds which may well reach deep into 2025. Fortunately, the Trump administration is pursuing a handful of policies which will return the American economy to strength and greatness, and the American worker to greatness.
The first major economic <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/10/trump-policy-stimulus-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">misstep</a> of the Biden administration was the passage of the nearly $2 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) in 2021, which did little except to throw gasoline onto an already hot economy. 
At a time when the economy was on the mend and inflation under control, Biden unnecessarily printed money and poured it into the economy, flooding it with cash. As a result, <a href="https://internationalbanker.com/finance/bidens-economic-scorecard-overshadowed-by-the-worst-us-inflation-rate-in-40-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation</a> surged to 9.1% in 2022, a rate not seen since 1981, squeezing household budgets and eroding Trump-era wage gains.
To combat this inflation, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest <a href="https://budget.house.gov/press-release/interest-costs-skyrocket-by-152-percent-under-president-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rates</a>, bringing them from near zero in 2022 to over 5% in late 2023, an increase of more than 150%.
<a href="https://www.heritage.org/housing/commentary/biden-killing-the-american-dream-homeownership" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mortgages</a> skyrocketed, with the average 30-year rate surpassing 7%, making home ownership all but impossible for first-time homebuyers, and forcing many who wanted to sell their homes to remain in place, creating a scarcity of housing inventory, driving up prices.
During this time, Biden expanded welfare programs, including extending <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/biden-unemployment-plan-400-boost-extra-benefits-for-six-months.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unemployment</a> benefits, and illegally forgave student <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-cancels-student-loan-another-150000-borrowers-rcna187453" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loan</a> debts. This discouraged workforce participation, exacerbating labor shortages.
As inflation continued, real wages <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/33790/nominal-and-real-wage-growth-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stagnated</a>, or declined, leaving Americans struggling to pay for essentials such as food, gas, and housing. <a href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/sf-fed-blog/2024/05/03/pandemic-savings-are-gone-whats-next-for-us-consumers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Savings</a> eroded, credit card <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/credit-card-debt-total-us-2024/">debt</a> reached record levels, and people began defaulting on <a href="https://www.heritage.org/housing/commentary/biden-killing-the-american-dream-homeownership" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mortgages</a> and <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/americans-falling-behind-car-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">car</a> payments.
Biden’s war on <a href="https://www.gop.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=766" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fossil fuels</a> and his support of the Green New Deal Mafia contributed to higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions, while depleting the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve, and sending billions to America’s oil exporting enemies such as Iran and Venezuela. 
Biden’s economic hangover continues today, hindering President Trump’s current efforts to reinvigorate the American economy.
<a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inflation</a> remains stubbornly high today, at 3% for the year ending January 2025. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/weekly-jobless-claims-jump-to-242000-more-than-expected-in-latest-sign-of-economic-softening.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jobless</a> claims are increasing as well, passing 240,000 in the latest report from the government, as companies prepare for an economic slowdown. While energy prices are coming down, Americans are still feeling the price at the pump, as they are at the grocery store, as Bird Flu has resulted in 166 million chickens, turkeys, and ducks being <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2025-02-26/poultry-culling-hasnt-stopped-h5n1-bird-flu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">culled</a>, driving the price of both eggs and poultry to astronomic levels.
There is a path to near term economic recovery, and the Trump administration is pursuing six critical paths to economic recovery, growth, and prosperity.
First, the administration is working to get government spending under control. Trump has done this by forming the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, under the influence of Elon Musk. This new organization has already identified billions in governmental waste, fraud, and abuse in one month. It has also worked to make the government more efficient by updating IT infrastructure. If nothing else, the work of DOGE has made the American people feel that, finally, the government may be spending their money in a responsible manner.
Second, Trump is working to make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of his previous term permanent. This would stimulate the economy by avoiding the largest tax increase in American history and giving the American consumer the confidence needed to spend and invest.
Third, the administration is pursuing more deregulation. From accelerating approvals for new American factories, to expedited oil exploration permits, reversing regulation removes the chains from American businesses and fosters investment, all of which stimulate the economy in a non-inflationary manner, creating growth.
Fourth, implementing tariffs to protect domestic industries will stimulate the economy and will not be inflationary. As a free-market economist, this pains me to write, but it is needed, especially the reciprocal tariffs on countries who put import tariffs on American goods such as cars, bourbon, and energy. A pro-tariff policy will either encourage direct investment in the United States or level the playing field for American business — either of which will stimulate employment.
Fifth, continue to pursue energy dominance. Rolling back green energy regulations and mandates that currently discourage oil and gas exploration, and hinder energy exports will boost the energy sector, reduce the cost of energy, and provide working Americans with much needed additional disposable income.
Sixth, the administration must continue to control the border and deport those in the United States illegally. The presence of these illegal workers, those who do work, drives down <a href="https://edworkforce.house.gov/uploadedfiles/9.13.23_camarota_testimony_help_subcommittee_hearing_on_open_borders_and_workforce.pdf">wages</a> for American citizens. The removal of these illegal workers will help American workers’ wages grow and recoup the losses caused by inflation under the Biden administration.
President Trump and his administration are pursuing the correct strategies to recreate and surpass the pre-COVID Trump economy. He must continue to act boldly and aggressively to drive these changes as fast as possible and help the American worker.
* * *
Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in the Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and the Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Overcoming The Biden Economic Hangover

American Rescue Plan

Biden Administration

Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

Economics

Elon Musk

Mortgages

Opinion

Trump Administration

In order to ensure Kamala Harris’ victory in 2024, there has to be some sort of outsized force that propels her to it. But the problem for Harris is that there aren&#8217;t going to be more debates where points are teed up for her.
If something bad happens in the world, that cuts against the Biden-Harris administration. If a large-scale war breaks out in the Middle East right now, that&#8217;s not going to cut against former President Trump; it&#8217;s going to cut against Biden-Harris because she&#8217;s the vice president who failed to prevent it.
If there&#8217;s an economic collapse, that cuts against Harris. If there&#8217;s any piece of really bad data in the country right now, it cuts against the incumbent.
But there is one piece of news that could be released and manipulated in order to try and help Harris.
And it happened on Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-percentage-point-03566d82" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>:
<blockquote>​The Federal Reserve voted to lower interest rates by a half-percentage point, opting for a bolder start in making its first reduction since 2020. 
Eleven of 12 Fed voters backed the cut, which brings the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Quarterly projections released Wednesday showed a narrow majority of officials penciled in cuts that would lower rates by at least a quarter-point each at meetings in November and December.</blockquote>
They&#8217;re going to start cutting, and they want a hard cut. The problem with a hard cut is that, first, inflation has not gone down all the way to the 2% number the Federal Reserve typically looks for, and, second, the economy is still pretty hot, meaning that unemployment numbers are still not radically up.
So what are they doing? They&#8217;re injecting more money into an economy that actually is not flagging enough to justify that size of a cut. The case for a 25-basis point cut could be made. You could say we need to gradually inject more money into the economy.
But interest rates should be free-flowing and not manipulated by the Federal Reserve at all. It&#8217;s ridiculous that we have a centralized government agency that decides how much your dollar is worth based on a dual mission of reducing unemployment and keeping inflation down. The free market should decide exactly how interest rates float, and sometimes the interest rates need to go up in order to clean out bubbles.
When that doesn&#8217;t happen, bubbles end up growing, and then eventually, the bubbles burst.
The Journal continues:
<blockquote>The Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissented against Wednesday’s decision in favor of a smaller, quarter-point cut. Bowman, who was appointed to the board by Donald Trump in 2018, became the first governor to dissent against an interest-rate decision since 2005. It was the first dissent by any voter on the rate-setting committee since June 2022.
The Fed rate cut marks just the sixth time in the past 30 years that the central bank switched from raising to lowering rates. Usually when the Fed starts cutting rates, it doesn’t know whether it will make a handful of small moves—as it did in 1995 and 1998, when the economy avoided a downturn—or whether it is the start of a longer series of reductions, as in 2001 and 2007, when the central bank cut rates a few months before the economy entered recession.</blockquote>
So, they&#8217;re going to start lowering the interest rates again. There are a few reasons for this. One is the United States government is borrowing money at such an unbelievable clip right now that to leave those interest rates up would ratchet up the interest payments on the national debt. In order to correct for the vast national debt we are piling up, they&#8217;re lowering the interest rates so we don&#8217;t have to pay people back at as high rates. That&#8217;s a major factor.
<h4><a href="https://www.dailywire.com/episode/ep-2051-member-exclusive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WATCH: The Ben Shapiro Show</a></h4>
Another factor is supposed to be that the economy is slowing so much we need to inject a fresh round of capital.
But let&#8217;s be real about this: Capital has not dried up in the American economy. That is why the stock market is currently riding precisely where it is. Just days ago, the price-to-earnings ratio (which assesses whether a stock is over- or under-valued) for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was riding at 31. The average PE ratio for the Dow over the past three years is 20.
That&#8217;s insane. That means stocks are overvalued. That means there&#8217;s quite a lot of money in the system that is being thrown at the stock market because people don&#8217;t know what to do with the money. Investors are getting a fresh infusion of cash in their pocket, and they&#8217;re immediately planting it where they think it will possibly earn a return. Stocks would be one place. They&#8217;re presumably going to do the same in real estate.
The problem is that the interest rates in real estate remain higher than they were five or six years ago. So even if you want to trade a house for a different house, that now means you&#8217;re giving up a 3.5% interest rate for a 6% interest rate on your mortgage, which costs you a lot more money.
<h4><a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a></h4>
So what is the cut designed to do? Making a 50-basis point cut signals two things at the same time. First, it signals the economy is on the verge of a downturn. That&#8217;s the reasoning for cutting it 50-basis points as opposed to 25. But second, a 50-basis point cut simultaneously signals that the worries about inflation are over, which means the economy is strong and solid. Obviously, these two things are in conflict with one another.
Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve tried to justify this. He said the Fed’s “patient approach” has paid dividends.
If by “patient approach,” he means increasing the prices of everything over the past three and a half years by roughly 20%, then well done, Jerome. Don&#8217;t strain your shoulder patting yourself on the back too hard. 
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/business/economy/inflation-interest-rates-effects.html">New York Times</a> reported: 
<blockquote>People with jobs have started showing up at homeless shelters in Atlanta. Families who can’t cover their grocery bills are pushing up demand at a Boston food bank. A dearth of available houses is plaguing Sacramento. Yet reports of recent raises abound, and a partly retired homeowner near Pittsburgh is happy about his savings.
America’s bout of painfully high inflation — and the period of high interest rates meant to cure it — is finally drawing toward a close. Price increases are nearly back to a normal pace, so much so that the Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to lower borrowing costs for the first time in more than four years.
But even as the nation’s tumultuous pandemic economic era begins to approach its end, the period is destined to leave lingering marks.</blockquote>
The Federal Reserve does not want Donald Trump in office. They clearly would like to see Harris elected.
So what is the cut really about?
What it&#8217;s about is trying to generate an ersatz feeling of good momentum on the economy, despite the fact the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index suggests the job market is slowing.
Is it slowing, or is it solid? We don&#8217;t know. Jerome Powell won&#8217;t tell us. Is inflation conquered, or is it just coming down? We don&#8217;t know. He won&#8217;t tell us.
While White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has the nerve to suggest the White House is completely independent of the Federal Reserve, have you noticed that every major Democrat in the Senate has been calling for a lowering of interest rates for the last year and a half in an attempt to artificially jog the economy?
* * *
<h4><a href="http://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WATCH THE TRAILER FOR &#8216;AM I RACIST?&#8217; — A MATT WALSH COMEDY ON DEI</a></h4>

US-ECONOMY-FED-POWELL

The Federal Reserve Rides To Kamala’s Rescue

2024 Election

Ben Shapiro

Dow Jones

Kamala Harris

Unemployment

Former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> responded on Wednesday to the news that the Federal Reserve had moved to cut interest rates by a dramatic 0.5%, saying that there were only two possible reasons for such an aggressive move.
According to Trump, the only truly legitimate reason to slash interest rates by that much would be to spur on a sluggish economy &#8212; a move that certainly would seem warranted as prices at the grocery store remain stubbornly high and recent jobs numbers have had to be revised downward.
But the former president also acknowledged that the move could be more political than practical, given the fact that the rate cut was announced with less than two months to go before the 2024 presidential election on November 5.
The Wall Street Journal&#8217;s Alex Leary posted Trump&#8217;s initial response via X, saying, &#8220;Trump visits bitcoin bar in NYC. On the FED, he says: &#8216;I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they&#8217;re not just playing politics. The economy would be very bad or they&#8217;re playing politics, one or the other. But it was a big cut.'&#8221;
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
Fox News&#8217; Neil Cavuto shared video of Trump&#8217;s comments, capturing his first ever Bitcoin transaction on camera as well.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Trump?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Trump</a> stops by an NYC bar, makes his first ever Bitcoin transaction.
His response to the Fed&#8217;s rate cut: &#8220;Guess it shows the economy is pretty bad, to cut it by that much&#8230;either that, or they&#8217;re playing politics.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/Bx6irqpbkQ">pic.twitter.com/Bx6irqpbkQ</a>
— Emergent Perspective (@_emergent_) <a href="https://twitter.com/_emergent_/status/1836512000974676292?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Trump appeared to be in good spirits despite the drama that unfolded over the weekend, as he laughed about &#8220;making history&#8221; as someone informed him that he was the first president or former president to make such a transaction.
Just three days earlier, on Sunday afternoon, U.S. Secret Service agents foiled a second assassination attempt on Trump. Agents — who were scouting the scene one hole ahead of the former president at his golf course in Palm Beach — spotted what appeared to be the barrel of a rifle sticking through the fence. They were able to engage the shooter and apprehend him after he attempted to escape by car.

Donald Trump Speaks On The Economy In Tucson, Arizona

‘One Or The Other’: Trump Says There Are Only Two Possible Reasons For Interest Rate Cut

Trump Reacts To Fed Rate Cut: 'I Guess It Shows The Economy Is Very Bad'

The <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve</a> cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday in the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) before the November election.
The cut was larger than most economists predicted and larger than the usual 25 basis point increment by which the FOMC typically moves. The rate cut is the first for the Federal Reserve in over four years since after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The cut reflected FOMC board members’ concern over recent Labor Department data that showed the labor market in a much weaker state than previously thought. Inflation remains higher than the Fed’s 2% target rate &#8212; the consumer price index <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-august-2024-09-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rose</a> 0.2 points in August to 2.5%. Officials cited the Fed’s dual mandate to fight inflation while encouraging full employment to justify its decision to cut rates, however.
“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving towards a more neutral stance,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a Wednesday press conference, according to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bff9e6d8-8906-4b3d-9ff3-72b091b6cd9e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a>.
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
The rate cut <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/labor-dept-overestimated-job-growth-by-more-than-800k-revises-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comes</a> after a Labor Department review of employment statistics revealed potentially the largest downward revision of jobs estimates in over 15 years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last month that job growth throughout the 12 months ending in March would be revised downward by 818,000 jobs, roughly equivalent to 0.5% of total U.S. jobs.
The potential revision suggests that monthly jobs numbers reported in the year leading up to the annual review have been seriously inflated, painting a much healthier picture of the economy. The size of the interest rate cut suggests that the FOMC was surprised at the size of the correction of Labor Department data revealed last month.
The next Fed meeting is <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scheduled</a> for November 6-7, the days immediately after the presidential election.

Fed Slashes Interest Rates In Final Meeting Before Election

Big Lots filed for bankruptcy on Monday citing inflation and high interest rates as main reasons for the discount retail store&#8217;s financial troubles.
The home goods chain, which boasts bargain prices for furniture and decor also pointed to fewer people spending money on these things in the wake of the pandemic.
“The company has been adversely affected by recent macroeconomic factors such as high inflation and interest rates that are beyond its control,” Big Lots <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/big-lots-bankruptcy-plans-sale-and-store-closures.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in a press release.
“The prevailing economic trends have been particularly challenging to Big Lots, as its core customers curbed their discretionary spending on the home and seasonal product categories that represent a significant portion of the company’s revenue,” the company said.
As part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, Big Lots agreed to sell its business to a private equity firm, Nexus Capital Management for about $760 million, according to court records.
Big Lots runs more than 1,300 stores across 48 states and made around $4.7 billion in revenue over the year that ended in September 2023.
Nearly 300 stores will now close, the company said, but the remaining stores will continue to offer &#8220;extreme bargains.&#8221; Previously, Big Lots had told the Securities &amp; Exchange Commission (SEC) it planned to close only 35 to 40 stores.
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1724361346607000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1ZhyOQfEkxcMH_D1Ago3CQ">Tickets for “Am I Racist?” are on sale NOW! Buy here for a theater near you.</a>
CEO Bruce Thorn said the bankruptcy filing will enable Big Lots to move forward with more financial stability, and they &#8220;remain committed to offering extreme bargains, enabling easy shopping in our stores and online, and providing an outstanding customer experience.&#8221;
Nexus&#8217; managing director said the firm is confident Big Lots&#8217; “greatest days are ahead” and they are “excited to have the opportunity to partner with Big Lots and help return this iconic brand to its status as America’s leading extreme value retailer.&#8221;
Big Lots will be sold during a court-supervised auction. Technically, Big Lots could sell to a different buyer if someone makes a higher bid than Nexus’ offer, but such a situation is unlikely.
About three months ago, Big Lots noted &#8220;substantial doubt about the Company&#8217;s ability to continue&#8221; in an SEC filing.
Brick-and-mortar retail stores have seen declining foot traffic for years now, but the pandemic dealt a particularly strong blow. Sky-high inflation in the years following COVID caused people to slow their discretionary spending dramatically as well.
Big Lots has also struggled to compete with similarly inexpensive retail chains that sell the same products, often for even lower prices, like Walmart.
Big Lots is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Big Lots Earnings Disapoints Investors, Stock Price Falls

Big Lots Files For Bankruptcy Citing Inflation

Americans are facing a new housing crisis, one that makes the crisis of 2008 look like a mere economic blip.
The housing crisis of <a href="https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/mortgages/subprime-mortgage-crisis/#:~:text=The%20subprime%20mortgage%20crisis%20was,to%20the%20global%20financial%20system.">2008</a> was driven by sub-prime mortgages being approved for people who had no financial means to pay for their homes. Many people had variable rate mortgages, and when those rates froze, or increased, people could no longer afford their monthly mortgage payments.
Housing prices collapsed, and many people, myself included, had mortgages that were “underwater,” meaning we owed more than the home was worth. As a result, approximately $3.4 billion in real estate wealth was destroyed.
Today, we have the opposite problem. There is a dearth of homes on the market, those homes that are for sale are priced at a level that excludes the middle class and young Americans from purchasing their first home. Rents are also sky high.
The 2024 housing crisis was infinitely preventable. It is the direct result of President Biden’s failed economic policies, which pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, driving inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates, effectively pricing millions of Americans out of the market.
In the first 20 years of the 21st century, there were approximately 5.5 million fewer homes built than were needed, according to the National Association of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/the-housing-shortage-is-hurting-almost-every-part-of-the-economy-8636226" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Realtors</a>. In addition, high interest mortgage rates are causing people who want to sell their homes, and move, to sit on their house, as they do not want to lose their low mortgage interest rate, refinanced during COVID.
As a result, the price of homes has increased. By August of 2023, the <a href="https://www.rockethomes.com/blog/housing-market/median-home-price-by-state" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median home price</a> in the United States was at $435,450, up from a <a href="https://www.rockethomes.com/blog/housing-market/timeline-covid-housing-market-trends" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median sales price</a> of $260,345 at the end of 2019, according to Rocket Homes.
<div id="attachment_760775" style="width: 874px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-760775" class="size-large wp-image-760775" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-864x576.jpg" alt="Blaine, Minnesota. Homes starting at a half million dollars in Lexington Waters is a community with wetlands, trees, and a variety of home options. it is a HOA Maintained lifestyle. (Photo by: Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)" width="864" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-864x576.jpg 864w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-300x200.jpg 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-768x512.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340.jpg 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px" />Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</div>
Biden’s kowtowing to the green mafia has also driven the price of housing up by <a href="https://www.heritage.org/housing/commentary/green-housing-mandates-are-pushing-americans-more-the-red" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$31,000</a>, according to the Heritage Foundation.
It is nearly impossible for all but the richest Americans to afford to purchase a home. More than 75% of the nation’s <a href="https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/three-quarters-of-households-are-priced-out-of-the-housing-market_o#:~:text=More%20than%20three%2Dquarters%20of,a%20home%20priced%20at%20%24435%2C750." target="_blank" rel="noopener">households</a> are unable to purchase a home — which is more than 103 million households.
This is why the profile of people living in their parents’ basement has changed. Those living “downstairs” are no longer the high school drop-outs, smoking weed, and playing video games while eating pizza.
In fact, more than 50% of “Gen Zers,” those people 18- to 25-years-old, are now forced to live at <a href="https://www.midstory.org/homeward-bound-why-gen-z-adults-are-living-with-their-parents-at-record-rates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home</a>, because they cannot afford either rent or a mortgage.
And that shouldn’t be a shock. To afford a median-priced home, <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/home-affordability-in-current-housing-market-study/#:~:text=on%20housing%20affordability-,To%20afford%20a%20median%2Dpriced%20home%20of%20%24402%2C343%2C%20Americans%20need,since%20the%20start%20of%202020." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans</a> need an annual income of more than $110,000, up 46% since 2020. That means that only 18% of <a href="https://www.zippia.com/advice/how-many-people-make-over-100k/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">individuals</a> or 34% of households can now afford to pay the mortgage on a home, let alone save the money for downpayment.
Building new homes may help inventory, but the cost will be high. The cost of construction materials are up more than 35% since the pandemic, according to <a href="https://archinect.com/news/article/150339906/cost-of-construction-materials-remains-37-higher-than-pre-pandemic-according-to-latest-abc-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABC</a>.
And even if you can afford a home, you may not be able to afford to insure it, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/select/homeowners-insurance-skyrocketing-how-to-lower-premium/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insurance</a> premiums are up 23% since January 2023.
So, why not rent?
From January 2021, when Biden took office, to June 2022, there was a nearly 25% increase in <a href="https://www.doorloop.com/blog/average-rent-by-year-in-the-united-states#:~:text=Looking%20back%20at%20the%20rates,there%20was%20a%2024.2%25%20increase." target="_blank" rel="noopener">rental</a> rates in the United States. And the trend has only continued.
So, the American housing market is in a death spiral. People such as myself are sitting on cheap mortgages. In fact, nearly 80% of <a href="https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1030/redfin-report-89-of-people-with-mortgages-have-an#:~:text=Below%205%25%3A%2078.7%25%20have,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans</a> have a rate below 5%. Why would they sell in this market? We won’t sell and we won’t move. This reduces the inventory of homes available for sale, driving the cost of housing up for everyone.
When you also factor in that more than 12 million illegals are now in the United States, demanding housing, rental prices will not come down anytime soon.
The next administration must pursue pro-growth, anti-inflation policies. Eliminate regulations that drive the price of housing up and encourage investment. Grow the economy, not by government spending, but via pro-growth policies, which will result in lower interest rates, thereby increasing the inventory of housing on the market.
The solutions to the housing crisis of 2024 are simple. The question is, will the next president have the courage to implement them.
* * *
Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in the Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and the Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Menu