In order to ensure Kamala Harris’ victory in 2024, there has to be some sort of outsized force that propels her to it. But the problem for Harris is that there aren&#8217;t going to be more debates where points are teed up for her.
If something bad happens in the world, that cuts against the Biden-Harris administration. If a large-scale war breaks out in the Middle East right now, that&#8217;s not going to cut against former President Trump; it&#8217;s going to cut against Biden-Harris because she&#8217;s the vice president who failed to prevent it.
If there&#8217;s an economic collapse, that cuts against Harris. If there&#8217;s any piece of really bad data in the country right now, it cuts against the incumbent.
But there is one piece of news that could be released and manipulated in order to try and help Harris.
And it happened on Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-percentage-point-03566d82" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>:
<blockquote>​The Federal Reserve voted to lower interest rates by a half-percentage point, opting for a bolder start in making its first reduction since 2020. 
Eleven of 12 Fed voters backed the cut, which brings the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 4.75% and 5%. Quarterly projections released Wednesday showed a narrow majority of officials penciled in cuts that would lower rates by at least a quarter-point each at meetings in November and December.</blockquote>
They&#8217;re going to start cutting, and they want a hard cut. The problem with a hard cut is that, first, inflation has not gone down all the way to the 2% number the Federal Reserve typically looks for, and, second, the economy is still pretty hot, meaning that unemployment numbers are still not radically up.
So what are they doing? They&#8217;re injecting more money into an economy that actually is not flagging enough to justify that size of a cut. The case for a 25-basis point cut could be made. You could say we need to gradually inject more money into the economy.
But interest rates should be free-flowing and not manipulated by the Federal Reserve at all. It&#8217;s ridiculous that we have a centralized government agency that decides how much your dollar is worth based on a dual mission of reducing unemployment and keeping inflation down. The free market should decide exactly how interest rates float, and sometimes the interest rates need to go up in order to clean out bubbles.
When that doesn&#8217;t happen, bubbles end up growing, and then eventually, the bubbles burst.
The Journal continues:
<blockquote>The Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissented against Wednesday’s decision in favor of a smaller, quarter-point cut. Bowman, who was appointed to the board by Donald Trump in 2018, became the first governor to dissent against an interest-rate decision since 2005. It was the first dissent by any voter on the rate-setting committee since June 2022.
The Fed rate cut marks just the sixth time in the past 30 years that the central bank switched from raising to lowering rates. Usually when the Fed starts cutting rates, it doesn’t know whether it will make a handful of small moves—as it did in 1995 and 1998, when the economy avoided a downturn—or whether it is the start of a longer series of reductions, as in 2001 and 2007, when the central bank cut rates a few months before the economy entered recession.</blockquote>
So, they&#8217;re going to start lowering the interest rates again. There are a few reasons for this. One is the United States government is borrowing money at such an unbelievable clip right now that to leave those interest rates up would ratchet up the interest payments on the national debt. In order to correct for the vast national debt we are piling up, they&#8217;re lowering the interest rates so we don&#8217;t have to pay people back at as high rates. That&#8217;s a major factor.
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Another factor is supposed to be that the economy is slowing so much we need to inject a fresh round of capital.
But let&#8217;s be real about this: Capital has not dried up in the American economy. That is why the stock market is currently riding precisely where it is. Just days ago, the price-to-earnings ratio (which assesses whether a stock is over- or under-valued) for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was riding at 31. The average PE ratio for the Dow over the past three years is 20.
That&#8217;s insane. That means stocks are overvalued. That means there&#8217;s quite a lot of money in the system that is being thrown at the stock market because people don&#8217;t know what to do with the money. Investors are getting a fresh infusion of cash in their pocket, and they&#8217;re immediately planting it where they think it will possibly earn a return. Stocks would be one place. They&#8217;re presumably going to do the same in real estate.
The problem is that the interest rates in real estate remain higher than they were five or six years ago. So even if you want to trade a house for a different house, that now means you&#8217;re giving up a 3.5% interest rate for a 6% interest rate on your mortgage, which costs you a lot more money.
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So what is the cut designed to do? Making a 50-basis point cut signals two things at the same time. First, it signals the economy is on the verge of a downturn. That&#8217;s the reasoning for cutting it 50-basis points as opposed to 25. But second, a 50-basis point cut simultaneously signals that the worries about inflation are over, which means the economy is strong and solid. Obviously, these two things are in conflict with one another.
Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve tried to justify this. He said the Fed’s “patient approach” has paid dividends.
If by “patient approach,” he means increasing the prices of everything over the past three and a half years by roughly 20%, then well done, Jerome. Don&#8217;t strain your shoulder patting yourself on the back too hard. 
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/business/economy/inflation-interest-rates-effects.html">New York Times</a> reported: 
<blockquote>People with jobs have started showing up at homeless shelters in Atlanta. Families who can’t cover their grocery bills are pushing up demand at a Boston food bank. A dearth of available houses is plaguing Sacramento. Yet reports of recent raises abound, and a partly retired homeowner near Pittsburgh is happy about his savings.
America’s bout of painfully high inflation — and the period of high interest rates meant to cure it — is finally drawing toward a close. Price increases are nearly back to a normal pace, so much so that the Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to lower borrowing costs for the first time in more than four years.
But even as the nation’s tumultuous pandemic economic era begins to approach its end, the period is destined to leave lingering marks.</blockquote>
The Federal Reserve does not want Donald Trump in office. They clearly would like to see Harris elected.
So what is the cut really about?
What it&#8217;s about is trying to generate an ersatz feeling of good momentum on the economy, despite the fact the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index suggests the job market is slowing.
Is it slowing, or is it solid? We don&#8217;t know. Jerome Powell won&#8217;t tell us. Is inflation conquered, or is it just coming down? We don&#8217;t know. He won&#8217;t tell us.
While White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has the nerve to suggest the White House is completely independent of the Federal Reserve, have you noticed that every major Democrat in the Senate has been calling for a lowering of interest rates for the last year and a half in an attempt to artificially jog the economy?
* * *
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US-ECONOMY-FED-POWELL

The Federal Reserve Rides To Kamala’s Rescue

2024 Election

Ben Shapiro

Dow Jones

Economy

Federal Reserve

Inflation

Interest Rates

Jerome Powell

Kamala Harris

Mortgages

Opinion

Unemployment

Former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> responded on Wednesday to the news that the Federal Reserve had moved to cut interest rates by a dramatic 0.5%, saying that there were only two possible reasons for such an aggressive move.
According to Trump, the only truly legitimate reason to slash interest rates by that much would be to spur on a sluggish economy &#8212; a move that certainly would seem warranted as prices at the grocery store remain stubbornly high and recent jobs numbers have had to be revised downward.
But the former president also acknowledged that the move could be more political than practical, given the fact that the rate cut was announced with less than two months to go before the 2024 presidential election on November 5.
The Wall Street Journal&#8217;s Alex Leary posted Trump&#8217;s initial response via X, saying, &#8220;Trump visits bitcoin bar in NYC. On the FED, he says: &#8216;I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they&#8217;re not just playing politics. The economy would be very bad or they&#8217;re playing politics, one or the other. But it was a big cut.'&#8221;
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726313279401000&amp;usg=AOvVaw115_qPFFEePDP86-Fvo-Vd">Am I Racist? Is In Theaters NOW — Get Your Tickets Here!</a>
Fox News&#8217; Neil Cavuto shared video of Trump&#8217;s comments, capturing his first ever Bitcoin transaction on camera as well.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Trump?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Trump</a> stops by an NYC bar, makes his first ever Bitcoin transaction.
His response to the Fed&#8217;s rate cut: &#8220;Guess it shows the economy is pretty bad, to cut it by that much&#8230;either that, or they&#8217;re playing politics.&#8221; <a href="https://t.co/Bx6irqpbkQ">pic.twitter.com/Bx6irqpbkQ</a>
— Emergent Perspective (@_emergent_) <a href="https://twitter.com/_emergent_/status/1836512000974676292?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Trump appeared to be in good spirits despite the drama that unfolded over the weekend, as he laughed about &#8220;making history&#8221; as someone informed him that he was the first president or former president to make such a transaction.
Just three days earlier, on Sunday afternoon, U.S. Secret Service agents foiled a second assassination attempt on Trump. Agents — who were scouting the scene one hole ahead of the former president at his golf course in Palm Beach — spotted what appeared to be the barrel of a rifle sticking through the fence. They were able to engage the shooter and apprehend him after he attempted to escape by car.

Donald Trump Speaks On The Economy In Tucson, Arizona

‘One Or The Other’: Trump Says There Are Only Two Possible Reasons For Interest Rate Cut

Trump Reacts To Fed Rate Cut: 'I Guess It Shows The Economy Is Very Bad'

Donald Trump

Politics

The <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve</a> cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday in the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) before the November election.
The cut was larger than most economists predicted and larger than the usual 25 basis point increment by which the FOMC typically moves. The rate cut is the first for the Federal Reserve in over four years since after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The cut reflected FOMC board members’ concern over recent Labor Department data that showed the labor market in a much weaker state than previously thought. Inflation remains higher than the Fed’s 2% target rate &#8212; the consumer price index <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-august-2024-09-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rose</a> 0.2 points in August to 2.5%. Officials cited the Fed’s dual mandate to fight inflation while encouraging full employment to justify its decision to cut rates, however.
“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving towards a more neutral stance,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a Wednesday press conference, according to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bff9e6d8-8906-4b3d-9ff3-72b091b6cd9e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a>.
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The rate cut <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/labor-dept-overestimated-job-growth-by-more-than-800k-revises-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comes</a> after a Labor Department review of employment statistics revealed potentially the largest downward revision of jobs estimates in over 15 years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last month that job growth throughout the 12 months ending in March would be revised downward by 818,000 jobs, roughly equivalent to 0.5% of total U.S. jobs.
The potential revision suggests that monthly jobs numbers reported in the year leading up to the annual review have been seriously inflated, painting a much healthier picture of the economy. The size of the interest rate cut suggests that the FOMC was surprised at the size of the correction of Labor Department data revealed last month.
The next Fed meeting is <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scheduled</a> for November 6-7, the days immediately after the presidential election.

Fed Slashes Interest Rates In Final Meeting Before Election

U.S.

Big Lots filed for bankruptcy on Monday citing inflation and high interest rates as main reasons for the discount retail store&#8217;s financial troubles.
The home goods chain, which boasts bargain prices for furniture and decor also pointed to fewer people spending money on these things in the wake of the pandemic.
“The company has been adversely affected by recent macroeconomic factors such as high inflation and interest rates that are beyond its control,” Big Lots <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/big-lots-bankruptcy-plans-sale-and-store-closures.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in a press release.
“The prevailing economic trends have been particularly challenging to Big Lots, as its core customers curbed their discretionary spending on the home and seasonal product categories that represent a significant portion of the company’s revenue,” the company said.
As part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, Big Lots agreed to sell its business to a private equity firm, Nexus Capital Management for about $760 million, according to court records.
Big Lots runs more than 1,300 stores across 48 states and made around $4.7 billion in revenue over the year that ended in September 2023.
Nearly 300 stores will now close, the company said, but the remaining stores will continue to offer &#8220;extreme bargains.&#8221; Previously, Big Lots had told the Securities &amp; Exchange Commission (SEC) it planned to close only 35 to 40 stores.
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CEO Bruce Thorn said the bankruptcy filing will enable Big Lots to move forward with more financial stability, and they &#8220;remain committed to offering extreme bargains, enabling easy shopping in our stores and online, and providing an outstanding customer experience.&#8221;
Nexus&#8217; managing director said the firm is confident Big Lots&#8217; “greatest days are ahead” and they are “excited to have the opportunity to partner with Big Lots and help return this iconic brand to its status as America’s leading extreme value retailer.&#8221;
Big Lots will be sold during a court-supervised auction. Technically, Big Lots could sell to a different buyer if someone makes a higher bid than Nexus’ offer, but such a situation is unlikely.
About three months ago, Big Lots noted &#8220;substantial doubt about the Company&#8217;s ability to continue&#8221; in an SEC filing.
Brick-and-mortar retail stores have seen declining foot traffic for years now, but the pandemic dealt a particularly strong blow. Sky-high inflation in the years following COVID caused people to slow their discretionary spending dramatically as well.
Big Lots has also struggled to compete with similarly inexpensive retail chains that sell the same products, often for even lower prices, like Walmart.
Big Lots is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Big Lots Earnings Disapoints Investors, Stock Price Falls

Big Lots Files For Bankruptcy Citing Inflation

Biden Administration

Americans are facing a new housing crisis, one that makes the crisis of 2008 look like a mere economic blip.
The housing crisis of <a href="https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/mortgages/subprime-mortgage-crisis/#:~:text=The%20subprime%20mortgage%20crisis%20was,to%20the%20global%20financial%20system.">2008</a> was driven by sub-prime mortgages being approved for people who had no financial means to pay for their homes. Many people had variable rate mortgages, and when those rates froze, or increased, people could no longer afford their monthly mortgage payments.
Housing prices collapsed, and many people, myself included, had mortgages that were “underwater,” meaning we owed more than the home was worth. As a result, approximately $3.4 billion in real estate wealth was destroyed.
Today, we have the opposite problem. There is a dearth of homes on the market, those homes that are for sale are priced at a level that excludes the middle class and young Americans from purchasing their first home. Rents are also sky high.
The 2024 housing crisis was infinitely preventable. It is the direct result of President Biden’s failed economic policies, which pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, driving inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates, effectively pricing millions of Americans out of the market.
In the first 20 years of the 21st century, there were approximately 5.5 million fewer homes built than were needed, according to the National Association of <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/the-housing-shortage-is-hurting-almost-every-part-of-the-economy-8636226" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Realtors</a>. In addition, high interest mortgage rates are causing people who want to sell their homes, and move, to sit on their house, as they do not want to lose their low mortgage interest rate, refinanced during COVID.
As a result, the price of homes has increased. By August of 2023, the <a href="https://www.rockethomes.com/blog/housing-market/median-home-price-by-state" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median home price</a> in the United States was at $435,450, up from a <a href="https://www.rockethomes.com/blog/housing-market/timeline-covid-housing-market-trends" target="_blank" rel="noopener">median sales price</a> of $260,345 at the end of 2019, according to Rocket Homes.
<div id="attachment_760775" style="width: 874px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-760775" class="size-large wp-image-760775" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-864x576.jpg" alt="Blaine, Minnesota. Homes starting at a half million dollars in Lexington Waters is a community with wetlands, trees, and a variety of home options. it is a HOA Maintained lifestyle. (Photo by: Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)" width="864" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-864x576.jpg 864w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-300x200.jpg 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340-768x512.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/GettyImages-2120209340.jpg 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px" />Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</div>
Biden’s kowtowing to the green mafia has also driven the price of housing up by <a href="https://www.heritage.org/housing/commentary/green-housing-mandates-are-pushing-americans-more-the-red" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$31,000</a>, according to the Heritage Foundation.
It is nearly impossible for all but the richest Americans to afford to purchase a home. More than 75% of the nation’s <a href="https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/three-quarters-of-households-are-priced-out-of-the-housing-market_o#:~:text=More%20than%20three%2Dquarters%20of,a%20home%20priced%20at%20%24435%2C750." target="_blank" rel="noopener">households</a> are unable to purchase a home — which is more than 103 million households.
This is why the profile of people living in their parents’ basement has changed. Those living “downstairs” are no longer the high school drop-outs, smoking weed, and playing video games while eating pizza.
In fact, more than 50% of “Gen Zers,” those people 18- to 25-years-old, are now forced to live at <a href="https://www.midstory.org/homeward-bound-why-gen-z-adults-are-living-with-their-parents-at-record-rates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home</a>, because they cannot afford either rent or a mortgage.
And that shouldn’t be a shock. To afford a median-priced home, <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/home-affordability-in-current-housing-market-study/#:~:text=on%20housing%20affordability-,To%20afford%20a%20median%2Dpriced%20home%20of%20%24402%2C343%2C%20Americans%20need,since%20the%20start%20of%202020." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans</a> need an annual income of more than $110,000, up 46% since 2020. That means that only 18% of <a href="https://www.zippia.com/advice/how-many-people-make-over-100k/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">individuals</a> or 34% of households can now afford to pay the mortgage on a home, let alone save the money for downpayment.
Building new homes may help inventory, but the cost will be high. The cost of construction materials are up more than 35% since the pandemic, according to <a href="https://archinect.com/news/article/150339906/cost-of-construction-materials-remains-37-higher-than-pre-pandemic-according-to-latest-abc-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABC</a>.
And even if you can afford a home, you may not be able to afford to insure it, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/select/homeowners-insurance-skyrocketing-how-to-lower-premium/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insurance</a> premiums are up 23% since January 2023.
So, why not rent?
From January 2021, when Biden took office, to June 2022, there was a nearly 25% increase in <a href="https://www.doorloop.com/blog/average-rent-by-year-in-the-united-states#:~:text=Looking%20back%20at%20the%20rates,there%20was%20a%2024.2%25%20increase." target="_blank" rel="noopener">rental</a> rates in the United States. And the trend has only continued.
So, the American housing market is in a death spiral. People such as myself are sitting on cheap mortgages. In fact, nearly 80% of <a href="https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1030/redfin-report-89-of-people-with-mortgages-have-an#:~:text=Below%205%25%3A%2078.7%25%20have,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans</a> have a rate below 5%. Why would they sell in this market? We won’t sell and we won’t move. This reduces the inventory of homes available for sale, driving the cost of housing up for everyone.
When you also factor in that more than 12 million illegals are now in the United States, demanding housing, rental prices will not come down anytime soon.
The next administration must pursue pro-growth, anti-inflation policies. Eliminate regulations that drive the price of housing up and encourage investment. Grow the economy, not by government spending, but via pro-growth policies, which will result in lower interest rates, thereby increasing the inventory of housing on the market.
The solutions to the housing crisis of 2024 are simple. The question is, will the next president have the courage to implement them.
* * *
Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in the Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and the Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Suburban Phoenix Master Planned Community Aerial

Welcome To America’s New Housing Crisis

finance

Housing

Readers Pass

If Joe Biden&#8217;s policies were wildly popular, everybody would overlook the fact that the man walks into walls.
But his policies are terrible.
On Tuesday, it was reported that the index of consumer prices rose 3.2% in February from one year earlier. We try to keep the rate at 2%. But we are still clocking in at well above 3% — which is 50% higher than what we want. Core price inflation is sitting at 3.8%; again, we aim for 2%.
That means all of the interest rates are going to remain high for the foreseeable future. The Federal Reserve tries to combat inflation by increasing interest rates — the overnight rate at which the Federal Reserve lends to banks and the banks lend to one another — and that is then passed on to the consumer.
The basic idea is that when you tighten up the credit, fewer people are borrowing; less money flowing around the economy means the prices tend to decrease. That&#8217;s the reason to increase interest rates.
The Federal Reserve wanted to decrease the interest rates in advance of the election to get that money flowing again, to heat up the economy, to make sure that hiring stays at really high levels leading up to Biden&#8217;s reelection effort in November.
But inflation is not cooperating, so interest rates are likely to stay high — which is why a few years ago you could get a mortgage for 3% and now a mortgage is costing you roughly 7%.
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The stickiness in the real estate market is created not by demand for single family housing, but by the lack of actual supply. No one can sell their high-priced house right now because if they did, the interest rate for their current mortgage, which they took out five years ago at 3%, would increase to 7% for the new mortgage for the new house.
So nobody&#8217;s actually selling right now.
The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-03-11-2024/card/white-house-forecasts-somewhat-higher-interest-rates-6wcHJKhbxfffDfPSpAKs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> on Monday:
<blockquote>President Biden signaled optimism during a campaign event last week that the Federal Reserve was going to cut interest rates soon. The economic forecasts in his <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/biden-budget-kicks-off-election-year-fight-over-medicare-social-security-42c7318f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">budget released Monday</a> offer a different message: curb your enthusiasm. …
Economic forecasts released Monday as part of the White House’s 2025 budget proposal assume that three-month Treasury bill rates will average 5.1% this year, the same as in 2023, before declining to 4% next year and 3.3% in 2026.
The White House sees the average 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 4.4% this year from 4.1% last year and then declining gradually to 3.7% by the end of this decade. 
The White House last year projected a somewhat lower path for interest rates in part because it assumed a meaningful slowdown in growth for 2023 that didn’t materialize. </blockquote>
If you sell a bond and interest rates are high — 7% or 8%, or in this case 5% — that means that the U.S. government is going to have to pay that off down the road.
This means when you take on new debt, it is more expensive — and that&#8217;s a big problem because we are blowing out spending like nobody&#8217;s business.
Joe Biden has a plan. His political plan is twofold. One: Promise to spend more money than anybody has in human history. Two: Soak the rich. That&#8217;s going to be his two-pronged economic plan, which is nothing new; we&#8217;ve seen that from every Democrat since Bill Clinton. The idea was to promise the world to voters, promise to spend money that does not exist, and do so by borrowing and taxing.
But the taxes never actually materialized because tax revenue is not capable of sustaining the kind of spending we are doing now, unless you decide to really tax the middle class. What Democrats want is the Norwegian standard of living without the kind of oil wealth provided by the Norwegian oil industry and without taxing the middle class in the way that Norway does.
The dirty secret of living in Scandinavia is that they tax everybody who makes about $60,000 a year at the same rate they tax those who make $500,000 a year. But America has an incredibly progressive tax system. People at the top of the income spectrum pay nearly all the taxes in the United States. That is not true in the social democracies of European countries, which start taxing people at exorbitant rates when they hit the lower-middle class.
But that&#8217;s something Democrats don&#8217;t want to do because they understand that if they do so, it would be politically unpopular with many of the people who are going to vote for them.
So, instead, they decide to promise extraordinary levels of spending and try to force Republicans into the corner — because Republicans are going to say we can&#8217;t spend that much.
This is why Biden has now released his fiscal 2025 budget, which has no chance of passage. It’s a list of priorities for Biden. And what exactly are Biden&#8217;s priorities?
Taxing people a lot of money, cutting military spending in the face of the most chaotic world situation of the modern era, and maintaining the spending trajectory of Social Security and Medicare.
And somehow, he says this is going to lower the deficit.
How is it going to do that? He’s assuming he can radically increase taxes without affecting the economy, which of course, is not the way any of this works. Radically increasing taxes causes people to spend less money. That&#8217;s the way it tends to work. You can tax something to death. But you cannot tax something into prosperity.
He&#8217;s proposing a $7.3 trillion budget. This is patently insane on its face. First, even during the pandemic in 2021, we did not spend that much money. The United States government spent about $6.8 trillion. The same was true in 2020. That was during a full-scale pandemic when people were told to stay home and the federal government paid everyone&#8217;s bills for a year.
These levels of government spending are not justified. We&#8217;re not even in the middle of a pandemic.
Biden’s budget would raise taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. When you tax a corporation, that cost is passed on to the people who work for the corporation; they have less money to pay their employees.
But Biden says this will somehow trim the deficit and lower the cost of prescription drugs, childcare, and housing. When he says he will lower the costs of goods and services like this, what he really means is that the federal government is going to start subsidizing.
And there has yet to be a product developed by human beings subsidized by the federal government in which the cost does not go up.
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Biden is already stagnating the economy. The real threat to the American economy in the long-term is not inflation. Inflation will come back down under control. The real danger is the stagnating economy for the foreseeable future.
In an article titled “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-budget-fy-2025-defense-spending-taxes-25f09b63" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Biden Offers a Budget Fantasy</a>,” the Wall Street Journal reports, “Mr. Biden’s deficits mean that debt as a share of the economy also keeps rising. He foresees debt held by the public rising to 102.2% in 2025, though it was only 79% as recently as 2019.”
That means more money will be spent in terms of servicing our national debt than we spent on our military budget every year in the very near future.
“Public debt in his budget keeps growing and growing — to 106% of GDP in 2030. Interest on that debt will surpass defense spending this year when it hits $890 billion, and it keeps climbing to $1.57 trillion over the next decade,” the Wall Street Journal added.
None of this makes any fiscal sense. When he says he&#8217;s going to tax the rich to get out of this, the simple fact of the matter is that there is no way to tax the rich enough to pay for the kinds of things Biden wants to pay for. He doesn&#8217;t really want to pay for them because he knows this is not going to pass.
So why does Biden propose nonsensical things that will go nowhere?
Because he&#8217;s trying to pick fights with Republicans. That&#8217;s really what this is all about.

President Biden Speaks On Lowering Costs

Biden’s Economy Makes No Sense. It’s Simply An Excuse To Attack Republicans

Budget

Entitlement Reform

Federal Government

Joe Biden

National Debt

Failed public policies are undermining the institution of <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/marriage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">marriage</a> in America. Rates of both marriage and child births have been trending down for decades, but the current cost-of-living crisis is poised to accelerate these declines. If you can’t afford a place to live, chances are you won’t get married and have kids.
That’s precisely the calculus for millions of young Americans today who can’t make ends meet despite a record number of them holding second or even third jobs. Sixty percent are living paycheck to paycheck. Americans have accumulated a record-high $1.1 trillion in credit-card debt as many can’t cover even necessities.
But Americans aren’t just falling into debt — they’re falling behind on payments too. Defaults and delinquencies are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Recession when there was a mortgage meltdown and a global financial crisis.
The financial strain on American families explains why people view current economic conditions so unfavorably in polling. Perhaps nothing illustrates this pessimism better than the housing market.
The monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has doubled in the last three years. Unless your income has also doubled, you’re falling behind when it comes to buying a house.
The median price of a new home has shot up to a stratospheric $435,000. Even the median price of an existing home, at about $387,000, would have been inconceivable three years ago.
The typical family buying a home today will have a monthly cost of homeownership around $3,000. That’s about half the median household income — before income taxes. It’s no wonder that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homeownership affordability index</a> is at a record low today.
The index even shows that the cost to own a median price home in several major metropolitan areas requires more than 100% of the median household after-tax income. In only a single metropolitan area with at least 500,000 people is the median price home affordable in America.
<div id="attachment_695083" style="width: 874px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-695083" class="size-large wp-image-695083" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-864x576.jpg" alt="Catherine McQueen. Getty Images. home for sale real estate sign ~ shot with canon eos rp" width="864" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-864x576.jpg 864w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-300x200.jpg 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-768x512.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-1800x1200.jpg 1800w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/02/GettyImages-1400734918-1200x800.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px" />Catherine McQueen. Getty Images.</div>
While homeownership is normally a great tool for building wealth, it is also often a precursor to major milestones in life, like starting a family. But with the American dream of homeownership having turned into a nightmare, nearly an entire generation of young people can’t buy a home and are delaying family formation because of it. 
And this isn’t simply theory – <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/monetary-policy-and-birth-rates-the-effect-of-mortgage-rate-pass-through-on-fertility.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">empirical research</a> published by Federal Reserve economists has already demonstrated that higher mortgage interest rates has a negative impact on the birth rate. That’s because those higher mortgage interest rates increase the cost of homeownership.
What caused this sad state of affairs? It was a deadly combination of impolitic public policies.
Since 2020, the federal government has been spending trillions of dollars it didn’t have, running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve covered these deficits by simply creating money for Congress to spend. That devalued the dollar, which fueled inflation as prices soared – including prices for housing.
But home prices got an extra boost from the Fed’s artificially low interest rates. What a homebuyer is really concerned about is the monthly payment on a home, not so much the home’s price. Lower interest rates allowed people to take on much larger mortgages for the same monthly payment, creating frenzied bidding wars for homes.
When interest rates finally rose to fight inflation, they pushed monthly mortgage payments through the roof, completely out of the reach of most Americans. It also trapped millions of Americans in their homes.
When a home is sold with a mortgage, the homeowner loses the loan and must get a new one, at current market rates. If someone bought a home just a few years ago, they are likely going from a 2-3% mortgage to a 7-8% one. That would cause their monthly payment to explode.
The options are to drastically downsize or not move at all — and millions have chosen the latter. That’s helped cause a severe shortage of homes for sale, the lowest level in decades. Consequently, home prices are staying high despite today’s higher interest rates.
While the failures of public policy are often measured in dollars, the unaffordability of housing today demonstrates that there can be even more far-reaching consequences: families never formed, and lives never lived.
* * * 
E.J. Antoni is a public finance economist at the <a href="https://www.heritage.org/staff/ej-antoni" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heritage Foundation</a> and a senior fellow at the <a href="https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Committee to Unleash Prosperity</a>. 

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Real Estate Agent Adjusts For Sale Sign in Front Yard

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Heritage Foundation

Marriage

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President Joe Biden and the rest of the Biden regime continue to claim “Bidenomics,” has saved the U.S. economy.  
It is painfully obvious that none of these people live in the reality of the American working man and working woman. For them, the economy is teetering on the brink and Bidenomics has been a disaster.
At a Labor Day celebration in <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-touts-america-strongest-economy-lowest-inflation-world-despite-soaring-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philadelphia</a>, the president claimed Bidenomics “is working,” and that Bidenomics is a “blue-collar blueprint for America … It’s for you.” I am not sure what economic data the president and his team were looking at, because last week’s inflation news was not good. According to the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a>, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the measure of inflation to the American consumer, rose more than expected, to an annual rate of 3.7%. The rise in inflation was primarily <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">driven</a> by gasoline prices, the “shelter” index meaning rent and housing costs, and food — the basic necessities that impact working-class Americans the hardest. The shelter index alone has been on the rise for 40 consecutive months.
Considering that the CPI in August 2022 was at 8.3%, consumers are paying 12% more for goods and services in 2023 than they were in 2021. In fact, things are so bad that an April 2023 <a href="https://www.heritage.org/debt/commentary/how-americans-have-taken-pay-cut-every-month-biden-took-office">study</a> from The Heritage Foundation, determined that Americans had lost around $7,100 in spending power since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. It has only gotten worse.
Per <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/are-we-there-yet-gas-prices-may-slowly-dip-as-fall-arrives/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAA</a>, the national average for a gallon of gas rose by $0.05 last week, reaching $3.85. The primary culprit is the surge in oil costs, which have jumped several dollars to hover around $90 per barrel. This at a time when domestic demand for oil dropped by 1 million barrels a day.
Americans are seeing the same thing at the grocery store. Per the <a href="https://thekrazycouponlady.com/tips/money/average-cost-of-groceries-per-month" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USDA</a>, the average family of four was paying $89-132 more per month for the same groceries in January 2023 than in January 2022.
The loss of purchasing power is forcing more and more Americans to take-on debt in order to pay for necessities.
Credit card <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">debt</a> in America has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, according to data released in August 2023 by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. People are not using their credit cards for vacations and new televisions, they’re paying for essentials such as gas, rent, and food, incurring debt at a current interest rate of 28.02%, per <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/credit-cards/average-credit-card-interest-rate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forbes</a>.
Driven by credit card debt and auto loan balances, overall <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">household</a> debt levels are at $17.6 trillion. Overall household debt has spiked by $2.9 trillion since the end of 2019.
At a time when, sadly, working Americans need credit to simply exist, credit is getting more difficult to obtain. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/credit-crunch-worries-at-10-year-plus-high-new-york-fed-survey-says.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sixty percent</a> of respondents to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for August 2023 indicated that “the ability to get loans, credit cards and mortgages is harder now than it was a year ago, the highest level in a data series that goes back to June 2013.”
Per <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loans/auto-loan-rejections-at-record-levels-fed-says/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bankrate</a>, the rejection rate for all credit applicants, including those applying for car loans, mortgages, credit limit increases, new credit cards and more, increased to 21.8 percent,” and are at their highest levels since 2018.
<a href="https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-continue-to-surge-with-more-homeowners-now-in-danger-of-losing-their-properties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Foreclosures</a> continue to rise, with foreclosure starts up 15% in the first half of 2023 and nearly 186,000 properties have received foreclosure filings.
And if you’ve noticed more and more tow trucks on the road these days, your eyes are not deceiving you. As far back as February 2023, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/car-repossessions-rise-120000818.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cox Automotive</a> reported that the rate of vehicle repossessions had increased more than 20%.
Inflation is here to stay, and apparently, so are high interest rates. Remember the wonderful economy of the 1970s?
As he seeks reelection, Joe Biden may want to find something else to highlight rather than the economy.
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Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in the Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and the Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Price Of Gas In Southern California Rises Over 6 Dollars A Gallon

Gas, Food, And Lodging: How ‘Bidenomics’ Is Crushing The Little Guy

Gas, Food, And Lodging: How 'Bidenomics' Is Crushing The Little Guy

Automobiles

U.S. inflation continues to dog both the American and, more importantly, the American consumer. The year-over-year inflation rate in April 2023 was 4.9%, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Statistics</a>. Many television economists and talking heads celebrated the slowing of inflation’s rate of growth. What these so-called experts fail to realize is that April’s inflation rate was 4.9% higher than the rate in <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05112022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">April 2022</a>, which was 8.3%. This means that the inflation rate was 13.2% when compared to April 2021 – hardly a number worth celebrating.
Journalists have written extensively about the impact of inflation on America’s collective pocketbook. Higher gas prices, higher food prices, and higher prices for items such as used cars and trucks have dominated the headlines. But there are hidden costs to inflation, inflicting pain on the middle class and poorest Americans.
The U.S. real estate market is already in a recession. Through the first quarter of 2023, “U.S. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-mae-housing-market-recession-172217493.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">housing</a> market activity as measured by private residential fixed investment has declined, on a nominal basis, for four straight quarters … Fannie Mae’s forecast model thinks declines in the U.S. housing market will spill over and help to push the U.S. economy into a recession.”  
The housing market is in a vicious cycle. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buckle-in-30-year-mortgage-rates-are-back-above-7-heres-how-many-extra-dollars-home-buyers-will-have-to-pay-6fe3101f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Interest rates</a> are above 7% for the third time this year. This is driving a lack of inventory as people with fixed rate mortgages below 5% are loath to sell their homes and purchase a new home at a higher interest rate. The lack of inventory is driving bidding wars in some areas, making first-time homeownership more difficult. It also makes it harder to recruit people to fill roles in companies that require relocation. Simply put, not many people want to venture into the housing market at this time.
It is not just housing. The U.S. auto market is quietly suffering, but not in a manner that many think. Prices are slowly <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-month-buy-car-2023-231008486.html#:~:text=There%20is%20good%20news%20on,is%20poised%20to%20keep%20easing." target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropping</a>, as supply chain issues are abated, with new car prices expected to fall 2.5 &#8211; 5% and used vehicle prices expected to decrease 10 &#8211; 20%.
However, the typical interest rate on a new car loan rose to 8.95% in March, up from 5.66% in March of 2022. For used cars, the rate was 11.3% in March, up from 7.7% a year ago. A one percentage point increase on an auto <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-interest-rate-march-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loan</a> “adds roughly $20 a month to a car note and thousands of dollars extra over the life of the loan.”
The higher interest rates for cars are not calculated in the inflation rate, just the drop in MSRP. The hidden cost is found in higher interest rates causing more drivers to fall behind on their car payments. In January 2023, the percentage of auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills climbed “2% from December and 20.4% from the previous year,&#8221; according to <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/car-debt-piles-up-more-americans-struggle-make-payments">Fox Business</a>. &#8220;The percentage of severe delinquencies surged to the highest level since 2006. Loan defaults increased 6.2% over the course of January 2023 and were up 33.5% from a year earlier. Car repossessions were up 11% in 2022.”
Another hidden cost of inflation is the grossly expanding credit card debt of American citizens. U.S. consumers now owe $986 billion on their credit cards, according to data from the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230515">Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</a> That is a 17% increase from a year ago and a record high, as more households are forced to use their credit cards to pay monthly expenses such as food and utilities.
The final hidden cost of inflation is the increase in hardship withdrawals from retirement plans. In 2022, 401(k) <a href="https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/401k-hardship-withdrawals-hit-record-high#:~:text=Under%20the%20new%20rules%20related,usual%2010%25%20early%20withdrawal%20penalty." target="_blank" rel="noopener">hardship</a> withdrawals rose by 24%, not only demonstrating how people are struggling to make ends meet, but also signaling a pending retirement crisis, as people will have less money on which to depend during retirement.
Joe Biden’s inflation is destroying the American dream. At a time when 57% of <a href="https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/many-americans-cant-afford-cover-emergency-expense-with-savings-survey-shows/IFNMZQ5WFNEQTCZIPQVTW7UMWA/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Americans</a> cannot afford an emergency expense of $1,000 or more from their savings, Democrats want to not only increase the debt limit, but also raise taxes so they can spend more money, which will drive more inflation. Americans are hurting, and their pain is not covered in today’s financial headlines.
Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in The Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and The Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Global financial crisis

The Hidden Costs Of Biden’s Inflation Are Destroying The American Dream

The Hidden Costs Of Biden's Inflation Are Destroying The American Dream

Banking

Gas Prices

Real estate

The average age of <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/cars" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cars</a> and light-duty trucks on American roads has reached 12.5 years, according to a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-age-of-light-vehicles-in-the-us-hits-record-high-12-5-years-according-to-sp-global-mobility-301824463.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> from S&amp;P Global, a phenomenon that comes as bottlenecked <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/supply-chain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supply chains</a> and elevated <a href="http://dailywire.com/topic/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation</a> continue their toll on households.
The financial analytics firm noted that 2023 marked the sixth consecutive year of increased average vehicle ages. The three-month rise between 2022 and 2023 constituted the largest year-over-year increase since the recession which struck the United States between 2008 and 2009, during which consumers likewise tightened their budgets in response to economic turmoil.
&#8220;We expected the confluence of factors impacting the fleet coming out of 2021 would provide further upward pressure on average vehicle age. But the pressure was amplified in the back half of 2022 as interest rates and inflation began to take their toll,&#8221; said Todd Campau, associate director of aftermarket solutions for S&amp;P Global Mobility. &#8220;While pressure will remain on average age in 2023, we expect the curve to begin to flatten this year as we look toward returning to historical norms for new vehicle sales in 2024.”
There are presently more than 284 million vehicles in operation on American roads; continual increases in popularity for light-duty trucks will cause the number of passenger vehicles to decline below 100 million for the first time in nearly five decades. Firms in the aftermarket repair sector are slated to experience windfalls as the number of cars between six and 14 years old is forecasted to increase by 10 million in the next five years.
S&amp;P Global linked the higher average vehicle ages in 2022 to “supply constraints that caused low levels of new vehicle inventory” in the first half of the year, followed by “slowing demand as interest rates and inflation reduced consumer demand” in the second half.
Lockdowns and public health mandates imposed over the past three years by governments across the world fostered unpredictable supply chain shocks, contributing to inflation in many countries. Sectors impacted most severely by foreign bottleneck exposure, such as automotive manufacturing, textiles, and basic metals, also witnessed the most extreme inflationary pressures, according to an <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/05/12/supply-chain-disruptions-and-inflation-during-covid-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analysis</a> from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Persistent labor shortages that followed the lockdown-induced recession continue to produce difficulties for American companies seeking to hire more workers. There exist roughly 9.6 million job openings and 6.0 million unemployed individuals across the American economy, according to a <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflecting a labor market that has further worsened inflationary pressures as firms increase compensation to attract and retain workers.
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Officials at the Federal Reserve have meanwhile <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/federal-reserve-unveils-quarter-point-target-interest-rate-hike-as-banking-system-reels" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased</a> the target federal funds rate to combat the inflationary pressures: target rates now sit between 5.0% and 5.25%, increasing borrowing costs for consumers, including those who finance their car purchases with debt.
American economic growth slowed to a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, marking a significant decline from previous quarters as the economic headwinds slow recovery from the recession and the interest rate hikes decrease demand, according to an advance <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/american-economic-growth-slows-to-1-1-in-first-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimate</a> from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Cars

Americans Delay Buying New Cars As Long As Possible To Avoid High Prices

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Supply Chain

Officials at the <a href="http://dailywire.com/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve</a> announced a 0.25% increase in the target <a href="http://dailywire.com/topic/interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">federal funds</a> rate on Wednesday, marking a slowdown from previous rate hikes meant to combat <a href="http://dailywire.com/topic/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation</a>, even as the financial sector contends with the collapse of three medium-sized regional <a href="http://dailywire.com/topic/banks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">banks</a>.
Rate hikes increase the cost of borrowing money, decreasing inflationary pressures as consumers and businesses assume less debt but simultaneously slowing the economy. Federal Reserve officials formerly set interest rate targets as low as 0.0% during the lockdown-induced recession to stimulate economic activity; rate targets now sit between 5.0% and 5.25%.
The Federal Open Market Committee said in a <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230503a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> that officials will &#8220;take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments&#8221; as they consider future actions to decrease price pressures.
Central bankers <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-federal-reserve-hikes-target-interest-rates-half-a-percentage-point" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised</a> rates by 0.75% on four occasions before implementing a 0.5% hike at the end of last year. Officials also <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/federal-reserve-hikes-target-interest-rates-by-quarter-point-as-officials-balance-fighting-inflation-and-protecting-banks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hiked</a> rates 0.25% two months ago.
The most recent target rate increase occurs after inflation reached 5.0% two months ago, according to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/headline-inflation-edges-downward-even-as-costs-for-many-key-items-continue-to-soar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marking relief from the 9.1% rate seen last summer even as costs for many items remain elevated and wage increases fail to keep pace with price levels. Record inflation coincides with supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages, which have forced firms to increase prices on consumers over the past two years.
American economic growth meanwhile slowed to a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, marking a significant decline from previous quarters as the headwinds slow recovery from the recession, according to an advance <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/american-economic-growth-slows-to-1-1-in-first-quarter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimate</a> from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The rate hike announcement also comes days after First Republic Bank collapsed, passed into Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation receivership, and was <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/jpmorgan-chase-the-nations-largest-bank-acquires-first-republic-bank-after-government-takeover" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sold</a> by regulators to JPMorgan Chase. Several other regional banks, including PacWest, Zions, Comerica, and Western Alliance, faced <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/several-regional-banks-face-market-turmoil-after-first-republic-collapse" target="_blank" rel="noopener">turmoil</a> on the stock market this week as the sector continues to reel from the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two months ago.
Interest rate hikes contributed to the substantial loss incurred by Silicon Valley Bank as executives liquidated a long-term bond portfolio to cover withdrawals. Assets in the banking system are $2 trillion lower than their book value as a result of Federal Reserve efforts to implement the current rollback in monetary stimulus, according to a recent <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/banking-system-is-sound-and-government-will-back-deposits-at-smaller-banks-yellen-promises" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study</a> from analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Officials at the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/federal-reserve-officials-reveal-when-they-expect-a-recession-to-strike" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concluded</a> that the volatility in the financial system warrants a recession forecast for the end of the year, followed by a predicted recovery over the course of the subsequent two years. Policymakers also estimated that the historically low unemployment rate would rise toward the beginning of next year.
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“If the effects of the recent developments in the banking sector on macroeconomic conditions were to abate quickly, then the risks around the baseline would be tilted to the upside for both economic activity and inflation,” minutes from a recent meeting said. “If banking and financial conditions and their effects on macroeconomic conditions were to deteriorate more than assumed in the baseline, then the risks around the baseline would be skewed to the downside for both economic activity and inflation, particularly because historical recessions related to financial market problems tend to be more severe and persistent than average recessions.”

Federal Reserve Unveils Quarter-Point Target Interest Rate Hike As Banking System Reels

Federal Reserve Unveils Quarter-Point Rate Hike As Financial Sector Reels

Banks

Recession

Recent data shows America’s residential housing market is in trouble. The <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/01/americas-property-market-suggests-recession-is-on-the-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Economist</a> believes that the situation in the U.S. housing market suggests that a recession is on the way. Many other economists believe the housing market is already in a <a href="https://thehill.com/business/housing/3764226-economists-a-us-housing-recession-has-already-arrived/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recession.</a>
According to <a href="https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Redfin.com</a>, U.S. home prices were down in March “3.3% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $400,698. On average, the number of homes sold was down 19.5% year over year.” The number of homes for sale was up 7.1% year-over-year and the number of newly listed homes was down 22.5%. Houses are staying on the market longer — 44 days for homes sold in March — up 23 days year-over-year, per the same report. Fewer homes are coming on to the market and those that are for sale are remaining so for longer periods of time.
In addition, housing starts are down, indicating a future dearth of inventory. Privately-owned housing units authorized by “building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,413,000. This is 8.8 percent below the revised February rate of 1,550,000 and is 24.8 percent below the March 2022 rate of 1,879,000,” per the <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.S. Census Bureau</a>. Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted “annual rate of 1,420,000 … 17.2 percent below the March 2022 rate of 1,716,000,” per the same report.
A housing market collapse similar to the Great Recession is not likely. The majority of mortgages are fixed rate and are locked in at 5% interest or below, and the credit of <a href="https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/#crash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homeowners</a> is much stronger than that of homeowners in 2008.
But we are seeing a significant uptick in foreclosure activity. In January 2023, there were a “total of 31,557 U.S. properties with <a href="https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/attom-january-2023-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreclosure</a> filings – default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions – up 36 percent from a year ago,” according to property data company ATTOM.
In addition to the increasing number of foreclosures, more and more people are backing out of their contracts to purchase a home, with approximately <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/homebuyer-remorse-thousands-americans-backing-210000693.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">65,000</a> home purchase agreements falling through in December 2022.
However, we are seeing a tale of two housing markets. While cities like Phoenix, Seattle, San Jose, and San Francisco all saw home <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-to-buy-home-cities-house-prices-plummeted-2023-2#5-austin-texas-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prices</a> decline by double digits in 2022, a number of markets saw their housing market heat up to new record levels of pricing and activity. The top five areas with the largest <a href="https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-8pt4-Percent-over-the-Last-Year-Up-0pt3-Percent-from-Q3.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">price increases</a> in 2022 were Florida (15.2%), North Carolina (13.4%), South Carolina (12.9%), Hawaii (12.8%), and Maine (12.2%).
A new variable that will likely have an impact on home sales is the new <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/state-treasurers-urge-biden-to-end-mortgage-policy-that-penalizes-stable-buyers-to-give-risky-buyers-a-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Biden administration rule</a> that will force people with good credit and a large down payment for a home to subsidize the mortgage and fees paid by people with poor credit and a low down payment.
State treasurers and finance officials from 27 states urged the Biden administration to rescind the rule, which took effect on May 1. <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/27-states-ask-biden-end-his-disaster-policy-forcing-good-credit-borrowers-subsidize-risky-mortgages" target="_blank" rel="noopener">They wrote</a> to the administration, “the policy will take money from the people who played by the rules and did things right – including millions of hardworking, middle-class Americans who built a good credit score and saved enough to make a strong down payment. Incredibly, those who make down payments of 20 percent or more on their homes will pay the highest fees – one of the most backward incentives imaginable.”
What will happen to the U.S. housing market over the next several months? It will depend on several factors, including what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates during its May meeting. But, if we continue to see a mass migration of Americans fleeing blue states such as California, New York, and Illinois, we will see a tale of two housing markets – collapsing markets in states people leave and white-hot markets in the states to which people move.
Jim Nelles is a Navy veteran and supply chain consultant based in Chicago. His articles have appeared in The Washington Examiner, Newsweek, Foxnews.com, and The Daily Wire. He has served as a chief procurement officer, chief supply chain officer, and chief operations officer for multiple companies.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

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