Democrats expecting another &#8220;blue wave&#8221; in 2026 should &#8220;hold the phone,&#8221; CNN&#8217;s chief data analyst warned this week, revealing that the party&#8217;s generic ballot advantage has collapsed to less than half of what it was before their historic midterm victories in 2006 and 2018.
CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered the “reality check” to Democrats in a Wednesday CNN segment, noting their current two-point lead pales in comparison to the seven-point advantage they held at this stage before previous wave elections.
“Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years – the year before the midterm election,” Enten said, noting that democrats had a generic ballot lead of 7 points in both the 2005 and 2017 midterms, respectively, compared to just 2 points in the leadup to 2026.
The data paints a drastically different picture than what many Democrats might hope for heading into the midterms.
&#8220;Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,&#8221; Enten told CNN host John Berman, adding that Republicans are &#8220;still very much in the game&#8221; for control of Congress.
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Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 &amp; 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 &amp; 2018 at this pt. <a href="https://t.co/CRgXukTjz6">pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6</a>
&mdash; (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1945492536836993510?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Enten noted this election cycle more closely resembles 2024 than either of the previous Democratic wave years, telling viewers expecting a Democratic sweep to &#8220;hold the phone.&#8221;
&#8220;At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does than either 2018 or 2006,&#8221; Enten said based on recent polling from Ipsos and other organizations.
The CNN data guru notes that the Cook Political Report&#8217;s seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more pickup opportunities for Republicans than Democrats, at a projected net gain of +12 for the GOP.
In July 2017, Cook projected a net gain of +33 for democrats, and they ended up picking up 41 House seats during the 2018 midterms of Trump’s first term.
Midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the party controlling the White House, and in only one instance in the past half century has the president’s party both held the House going in and managed to keep it: the 2002 midterms, following the 9/11 attacks.
The 2024 election, which Enten cited as most similar to current trends, saw Republicans maintain their House majority, with Democrats netting just a single seat — a stark contrast to the 31 and 41 House seats Democrats captured in the 2006 and 2018 wave elections.

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CNN&#8217;s chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed on Monday that most Americans agree with the Trump administration’s assessment that higher education needs &#8220;a kick in the rear end,&#8221; with confidence in colleges plummeting to just 36%.
The decline in Americans&#8217; confidence in higher education has been dramatic over the past decade, Enten explained, citing a recent Gallup poll.
&#8220;You go back a decade ago, 57% of Americans had high confidence in higher education. &#8230; That number has plummeted &#8230; down to 36%,&#8221; Enten explained, speaking with Kate Balduan, adding that 68% of Americans believe higher education is &#8220;on the wrong track.&#8221;
The perception of ideological bias on college campuses is widespread, with Enten revealing that a plurality of Americans agree colleges have a liberal bias, while only a small minority disagree.
“So, do colleges have a liberal bias? I think that&#8217;s really the question here. What we see in polling after polling after polling is that the plurality say yes. Overall, look at that. 45% of Americans overall agree with the idea that colleges have a liberal bias. Just 24% disagree with that idea.”
Among Republicans, the sentiment is even stronger, with “67% of Republicans&#8221; agreeing that &#8220;colleges have a liberal bias,” reflecting why many conservatives have long criticized academia.
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“This is why Donald Trump is so emphatic and so wanting to take on this fight because he knows that Republicans hate universities, hate the administrations, believe they have a liberal bias, and in fact the plurality of Americans overall agree with the idea, agree with Donald Trump, that colleges are in fact a place where bias reigns.”
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A lot of Americans agree with Trump: higher ed needs a kick in the rear end. Those with high confidence in higher ed has collapsed: 57% in 2015 to 36% now. 68% (!) say higher ed is on the wrong track.
Also, a plurality of Americans &amp; the GOP agree: colleges have a liberal bias. <a href="https://t.co/JZtup3BoGV">pic.twitter.com/JZtup3BoGV</a>
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1928088903279358015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2025</a></blockquote>
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According to Enten, it&#8217;s no longer much of a question of if there is bias, but rather, “it’s a question of whether or not people agree with Trump’s tactics,” although they “definitely agree with him on the idea that there is a problem with higher ed overall.”
These poll results come as Trump has attempted to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-admin-freezes-all-new-student-visa-interviews-in-major-blow-to-elite-universities?author=Nathan+Gay&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=2&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Trump+Admin+Freezes+All+New+Student+Visa+Interviews+In+Major+Blow+To+Elite+Universities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crack down</a> on universities such as Harvard, which receive billions in federal funding and grants despite rampant DEI initiatives and tolerance of antisemitism on campus.
Trump&#8217;s tough stance on higher education may already be having an impact internationally. Webpage views for U.S. university courses from potential students abroad have plummeted by 50% between January and April, according to Enten, suggesting foreign students are looking elsewhere for their education.

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CNN Data Chief Shatters ‘Blue Wave’ Hype: Democrats’ 2026 Lead ‘Less Than Half’ Of Past Midterms

Even CNN Analyst Has To Admit ‘Americans Agree With Trump’ On Broken Higher Ed System