Trump ally Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is set to launch her campaign for New York governor, giving Republicans new hope of flipping the traditionally deep blue Empire State, two sources familiar with Stefanik&#8217;s thinking told The Hill.
&#8220;It&#8217;s not a matter of if, it&#8217;s a matter of when,&#8221; one source close to Stefanik <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5371832-stefanik-prepares-launch-governor-race/">told</a> The Hill, noting that the congresswoman will announce &#8220;at the time and place&#8221; of her choosing.
As The Daily Wire previously reported, Stefanik has been considering a run in recent months, following President Trump&#8217;s decision to withdraw her nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/stepping-up-as-a-team-stefanik-reacts-after-trump-withdraws-nomination">deeming</a> it too risky to put her competitive district up for an open election ahead of Trump&#8217;s push for his &#8220;big, beautiful bill.&#8221;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
RUN <a href="https://twitter.com/EliseStefanik?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EliseStefanik</a> RUN!! <a href="https://t.co/EJu4v6jz2n">https://t.co/EJu4v6jz2n</a>
&mdash; Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) <a href="https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1938350682106458604?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 26, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Stefanik was the number four Republican in the House, serving as Chair of the House Republican Conference after replacing former Rep. Liz Cheney, before being briefly nominated as U.N. ambassador.
Polling indicates strong support for the Trump ally, with a GrayHouse survey showing Stefanik commanding 44% among Republican primary voters compared to just 7% for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and 5% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, both of whom received Trump endorsements for reelection to their current positions last month.
Republicans have reason for optimism in the traditionally Democratic stronghold, as the GOP has made significant gains in recent elections.
<a class="c-link c-link--focus-visible" href="https://get.dailywire.com/freedom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://get.dailywire.com/freedom/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">JULY 4 SALE: Get Six Months Of DW+ Free</a>
Trump lost New York by just over 12 points in 2024, a dramatic 11-point <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-the-nation-told-us-in-2024-state-by-state/">improvement</a> from his 2020 performance, while current Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul defeated Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by only 6 points in her 2022 race. However, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report still considers the upcoming gubernatorial contest &#8220;likely Democratic.&#8221;
Stefanik, 41, has risen quickly through the Republican ranks since first being elected to Congress in 2014 at the age of 30 – at that time, the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. Her national profile grew significantly during former President Trump&#8217;s first impeachment proceedings, when she emerged as one of his most vocal defenders.
Republicans have been increasingly competitive in parts of New York, particularly in Long Island and Hudson Valley districts that helped the party secure a narrow House majority in 2022. Economic concerns, rising crime rates, and migration issues have become prominent topics that GOP candidates have successfully leveraged to win local races.
Stefanik&#8217;s run would come after socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo in Tuesday&#8217;s Democratic mayoral primary, inciting <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/billionaire-pledges-to-bankroll-any-nyc-mayoral-candidate-who-can-beat-zohran-mamdani?author=Nathan+Gay&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=2&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Billionaire+Pledges+To+Bankroll+Any+NYC+Mayoral+Candidate+Who+Can+Beat+Zohran+Mamdani">panic</a> among many in the city and providing a fruitful target for the New York Representative.
Mamdani, a state assemblyman representing parts of Queens, has championed policies that alarm fiscal conservatives and moderate Democrats alike. His <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/here-are-the-top-five-craziest-policy-proposals-from-nyc-mayor-candidates?author=Catherine+Maxwell&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=undefined&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Here+Are+The+Top+Five+Craziest+Policy+Proposals+From+NYC+Mayor+Candidates">platform</a> includes advocating for city-owned supermarkets, rent freezing measures, and significant reallocations of police funding to social services.
Stefanik would likely face incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election.
Hochul, who took office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo&#8217;s resignation amid sexual harassment allegations, has faced criticism over her handling of crime and the state&#8217;s high cost of living, issues that could provide an opening for Republicans to make further inroads with New York voters.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
The Worst Governor in America Kathy Hochul desperately tries to distance herself from the Defund the Police, raging antisemite Communist except Kathy refuses to denounce any of his insane Marxist policies. She OWNS this catastrophic candidate who will destroy NYC. 
Kathy Hochul… <a href="https://t.co/ifBXhTFEGx">https://t.co/ifBXhTFEGx</a>
&mdash; Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) <a href="https://twitter.com/EliseStefanik/status/1938308720230105133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 26, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Stefanik/Hochul

Elise Stefanik Set To Challenge Hochul For New York Governor

2026 Midterms

Elections

Elise Stefanik

Kathy Hochul

New York

New York City

Politics

Zohran Mamdani

Editor’s note: This is the sixth and final installment of a six-part series by pollster Brent Buchanan on the politics of the American South. In the last installment, Buchanan took a close look at Georgia to tell the story of the South’s political crossroads. Today, he offers suggestions for how Republicans can achieve political victory in the South.
We hope you enjoy.
—
It’s easy to oversimplify American politics. But when it comes to our collective understanding of regionality, it really is as simple as North, East, South, and West.
Engrained in the minds across generations, defined by mighty rivers and a brutal Civil War, the South — more than any other region — is more politically consequential than it ever has been. For most of modern American history, the “Solid South” was a real thing that helped Democrats win the White House and the presidency.
Today, it is a myth.
The real story of America’s South, as you’ve been reading in this <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/author/brent-buchanan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">six-part series</a>, is the story of an emerging patchwork of political intricacies and growing political dominance. Our exclusive analysis of the South shows 10 distinct regions transcending state lines and traditional constructs, showing vulnerabilities and opportunities for both parties – but more for Republicans — if they can capitalize before Democrats find a rudder and sales pitch.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929707" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/Full-Map-2.jpeg" alt="" width="670" height="407" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/Full-Map-2.jpeg 670w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/Full-Map-2-300x182.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px" /></div>
State lines determine the borders for how we’ll count votes, but voters and their stances on key issues of the day don’t adhere to state lines. How well each party understands and adapts to the South’s regional realities will determine the balance of power for the 2026 midterm elections and the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency.
To culminate this deep analysis of aggregated demographic variables, survey responses, and trends in everything from education, income, gender, age, and partisanship, we offer four things Republicans should focus on to achieve political victory in the South.
<h3>Base Fortress Regions With GOP Ceilings</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929697" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/DixieBigSkyTrumpianH-mapsx3.png" alt="" width="785" height="409" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/DixieBigSkyTrumpianH-mapsx3.png 785w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/DixieBigSkyTrumpianH-mapsx3-300x156.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/DixieBigSkyTrumpianH-mapsx3-768x400.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 785px) 100vw, 785px" /></div>
Pollsters and political operatives felt the tremors of America’s massive political realignment before most of the mainstream media caught on, but by now it’s common knowledge that Trump’s emergence as the central figure of political life was the catalyst of a growing Diploma Divide.
But Trump reflects an electorate whose political preferences began changing even before he came down that golden escalator.
While this realignment has happened nationally, it’s most prominent and evident in the South. For the Republican Party, three main regions anchor its new political advantage. What we’ve dubbed Dixieland, Big Sky South, and the Trumpian Highlands serve as base fortresses from diploma-divide-driven gains from Democrats — but offer little to no room for growth. In 2024, Trump’s ballot shares were 71% in Dixieland, 70% in the Big Sky South, and 75% in the Trumpian Highlands.
“This is about as good as it’s going to get for the GOP in these New South buttresses,” said Nicholas Valdiviez, Cygnal’s Sampling Lead for this project. “These three strongholds are reliable for Republicans, but it’s unreasonable to expect they can deliver more than they already have.”
So what? As we’ve seen in previous cycles, it can be easy to try and offset lagging performance in harder-to-get voter groups by surging turnout in reliable regions like these. But the GOP’s focus should be on keeping turnout and engagement at these levels — which won’t be easy as these areas aren’t growing as much as other Southern regions less friendly to Republicans. There’s more peril in the ceilings of these fortresses if voters are unenthused and stay home.
<h3>Wild Cards &amp; Volatility: Regions That Could Flip</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929705" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexCondoCoal-mapsx2.png" alt="" width="767" height="295" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexCondoCoal-mapsx2.png 767w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexCondoCoal-mapsx2-300x115.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 100vw, 767px" /></div>
If you’ve followed this series, you know the only states we called out as standalone fixtures in the still uncertain political future of the South were <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/hold-what-the-peach-states-political-patchworks-mean-for-2026?author=Brent+Buchanan&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=0&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=What+The+Peach+State%E2%80%99s+Political+Patchworks+Mean+For+2026%C2%A0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Georgia</a> and <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/bbq-politics-how-north-carolinas-sauce-divide-mirrors-voting-behavior?author=Brent+Buchanan&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=1&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=BBQ+Politics%3F+How+North+Carolina%E2%80%99s+Sauce+Divide+Mirrors+Its+Voting+Behavior%C2%A0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">North Carolina.</a> Beyond the regions we’ve identified as the TexMex Nexus and Coastal Condo Coalition, those are the two states with the highest volatility and uncertainty heading into the midterm elections.
North Carolina’s split personality in politics is mirrored by its split choice in barbeque sauces, while Georgia’s newish designation as a swing state is defined by a seeming disappearance of the traditional Black Belt and regional creep from the stronghold of the Trumpian Highlands. Both states are incredibly consequential to party control in Washington — but they’re not the only volatile areas we’re watching.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929699" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/CoastalCondoCoal-map1.png" alt="" width="484" height="383" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/CoastalCondoCoal-map1.png 484w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/CoastalCondoCoal-map1-300x237.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px" /></div>
First, let’s look at the Coastal Condo Coalition, centered in Florida&#8217;s densely urbanized southern tip. It is one of the most demographically and economically unique regions in the South. Traditionally a Democratic stronghold (Democrats lead 45% to 32% in registration), this region has seen notable Republican gains since 2016, culminating in a 6.6% swing toward the GOP in 2024. This is its best performance in years, nearly flipping the partisan split to 49-51.
Then, let’s look at the TexMex Nexus. This region spans heavily Hispanic areas along the Texas border, and in scattered urban centers, it has been one of the most politically dynamic zones in our Southern analysis. After holding steady at a near 50-50 partisan split in 2012, this region took a sharp left turn in 2016, moving 10 points toward the Democrats — double the next largest leftward shift in the South. That trend continued into 2020 with another 4-point Democratic gain, making it seem like a prime target for Democrats as their registration advantage grew to 53% over the GOP’s 39%.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929701" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexNexus-map1.png" alt="" width="514" height="383" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexNexus-map1.png 514w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/TexMexNexus-map1-300x224.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 514px) 100vw, 514px" /></div>
But 2024 brought a dramatic reversal, as the Tex-Mex Nexus saw the second-largest rightward swing of any region, moving 9 points toward Republicans and ending at a D+5 margin — a five-point improvement for the GOP compared to 2016. This shift was powered by significant Republican gains among Latino voters, particularly men, and by a focus on economic and border issues that resonated locally.
So what? With popular Governor Brian Kemp out of contention for the Georgia Senate race, the state remains in flux alongside its northern swing state counterpart, North Carolina. Factor in the fact that neither the Coastal Condo Coalition nor the TexMex Nexus is on lock for the GOP, and you have the four biggest wild cards in the South.
<h3>Stagnation &amp; Gridlock in the “Sweet” Burbs and Faux South</h3>
So, now we’ve got the Republican strongholds identified and the wild cards laid out — but that’s only half the picture. Vast swaths of the South are in political gridlock where even the sheer force of personality from someone like Trump has managed to crack — or break. These are the regions we’ve labeled the Sweet Tea Suburbs and the Faux South. While old voting patterns seem to be fading, these regions remain “stuck zones,” political wastelands where entrenchment and razor-thin margins offer no clear advantage to either party.
“These are not battlegrounds in the traditional sense,” Valdiviez says. “Rather they are stagnant bogs who have more impact on their urban cores and outlying mixing zones of other regions and therefore should be pursued nice-to-have incremental gains rather than outright winnable. The catch is these areas are political fronts that if left unattended could wind up being potential wild cards.”
So what? With so much talk of massive realignments and sweeping partisan shifts, both in strongholds and wild cards, these doldrums are different, and should be approached differently. The GOP’s only hope is to nibble around the edges of these regions with dynamic quality candidates and a message more akin to hometowns than the machinations of Washington, D.C.
<h3>Growth Regions: The GOP’s Next Frontier</h3>
Now for the fun part: the opportunities for Republicans in the South. If you’ve been following along so far, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster to say the least, but here are the three regions we think will comprise the next frontier for Republicans.
The Soulful South stands out among them, but not because of the 58% Republican ballot share or because Georgia’s Black Belt is now less visible in our regional analysis. Rather, the Soulful South stands out because it has been <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-end-of-democratic-assumptions-how-minority-voters-are-reshaping-southern-politics?author=Brent+Buchanan&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=3&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=The+End+of+Democratic+Assumptions%3A+How+Minority+Voters+Are+Reshaping+Southern+Politics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trending rightward</a> since 2012.
The fact that Democrats take these voters for granted — combined with the connection forged by Trump’s candidacy — has made the Soulful South a budding ground of opportunity for Republicans going forward. Overconfidence here is perilous, but with Democrats without a message or a messenger that resonates with this predominantly black region, our analysis shows more to gain for Republicans than to lose. They should keep their foot on the gas here.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-929703" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SoulfulSouth-map1.png" alt="" width="455" height="361" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SoulfulSouth-map1.png 455w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/06/SoulfulSouth-map1-300x238.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 455px) 100vw, 455px" /></div>
Our proprietary naming conventions and analysis also identify the Republican Resettlers and Big Hat Bloc regions as prime opportunities. The Republican Resettlers region, fueled by an influx of newcomers from liberal states seeking communities with conservative governance (you heard that right), has shown some of the most consistent rightward movement in the South, swinging eight points further right by 2024 to reach an R+17 margin. As migration trends continue, especially along the Georgia and Florida coasts, this bloc is poised to expand its influence and deliver reliable support for Republican candidates.
Similarly, the Big Hat Bloc, which experienced setbacks during the early Trump years, has rebounded with record Republican margins in 2024. This region’s mix of cultural conservatism and economic focus makes it fertile ground for further Republican consolidation, especially if the party can maintain strong turnout and continue to address local priorities — much like those strongholds we addressed earlier.
With both regions trending right and absorbing new, like-minded residents, the GOP’s prospects for midterm gains are strong, provided they stay focused on localized outreach and avoid complacency in data, spending, and messaging.
So what? This is where Republicans should surge their efforts with non-college educated, non-white voters, and even those <a href="https://cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Cygnal-Election-2024-Focus-Group_Analysis.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ticked-off, young, working class, and diverse</a> voters within these regions. These are new constituencies for the GOP, and now is the time to further build out these inroads and lock in the gains for the post-Trump era.
<h3>Conclusion: The States and Their Shapes</h3>
As Americans, we know the regionality of our nation inherently, and we understand that state lines can be pesky and a bit funny. We also know those lines serve a multitude of purposes, chief among them governance and counting votes. With that in mind, it only makes sense to examine the South from our <a href="https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/10-Regions-of-the-American-South-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">distinct regional perspective, noting</a> that Texas and Florida alone are projected to gain eight new congressional seats by 2030, with other Southern states like Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina also on the rise.
This shift comes at the expense of traditional blue state strongholds in the Midwest, fundamentally redrawing the map of political opportunity in America. The parties that best understand these new Southern realities — where regional identities like we’ve defined here, not state lines, drive turnout and loyalty — will tip the upper hand for 2026 and the next decade.
But here’s the catch: like the Democrats before them, Republicans can’t afford to treat the South as a monolith or rely on pre-Trump playbooks.
The story of the South today is one of ceilings, wild cards, gridlock, and growth. The lesson for Republican campaigns, operatives, and strategists is as clear as it is urgent: the old assumptions are dead, and the new map of power is regional, dynamic, and deeply local. The party that can surge turnout in fortress regions, lock in gains in growth zones, nibble at the edges of gridlocked suburbs, and win the battle for the wild cards will be the party that defines the next era of American politics.

Vice President JD Vance Tours Nucor Steel Berkeley In South Carolina

The South’s Next Act: Wild Cards In 2026 And Beyond 

Georgia

North Carolina

Republican Party

Southern States

Michigan Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel said on Monday that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, also a Democrat, violated campaign law when she announced her 2026 gubernatorial bid in a government building in January. According to Nessel&#8217;s office, however, the state law does not provide any mechanism for punishing Benson, who oversees elections and campaign finance, The Detroit News <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/19/michigan-dana-nessel-finds-secretary-of-state-jocelyn-benson-violated-campaign-finance-law-governor/83726371007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>.
On January 22, days after she accidentally posted her campaign announcement on social media, Benson officially launched her 2026 bid for Michigan governor inside the Richard H. Austin Building, which houses the Department of State in Lansing. As The Daily Wire <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/michigan-dem-secretary-of-state-launches-bid-for-governor-hours-after-accidental-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> at the time, Benson was criticized for likely violating Michigan law, which <a href="https://www.legislature.mi.gov/Laws/MCL?objectName=mcl-169-257" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prohibits</a> “a person acting for a public body” from using “funds, personnel, office space, computer hardware or software, property, stationery, postage, vehicles, equipment, supplies, or other public resources to make a contribution or expenditure or provide volunteer personal services.”
Nessel&#8217;s office wrote on Monday that Benson &#8220;invited members of the press inside the Austin Building&#8221; and then &#8220;conducted a press conference, professionally dressed, during the day, in the lobby of the building that houses her office.&#8221;
&#8220;She gave no indication that would lead a reasonable person viewing the press conference to believe that she was there on her &#8216;personal time.&#8217; Instead, the circumstances would lead a reasonable person to believe that Secretary Benson was acting as Secretary of State with the authority of the Department of State, which is a &#8216;public body,&#8217; to invite members of the press inside her office building,&#8221; the attorney general added.
Those who break the law are guilty of a misdemeanor and subject to up to a year in prison or a fine of up to $1,000. Despite finding that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate broke the campaign law, the Michigan Department of Attorney General said it cannot impose a fine or civil penalty on Benson because the law excludes the secretary of state, according to <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/19/attorney-general-jocelyn-benson-broke-campaign-finance-law-governor-campaign/83726457007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Detroit Free Press</a>. The attorney general&#8217;s office said that the &#8220;unequal treatment&#8221; in the law &#8220;is something the Legislature may want to consider addressing.&#8221;
Nessel&#8217;s office did not respond to a Daily Wire request to comment.
Michigan Republican state Rep. Jay DeBoyer told The Daily Wire that he disagrees with the attorney general&#8217;s conclusion that the office cannot pursue a punishment for Benson. The law gives the Secretary of State&#8217;s office the obligation to refer the attorney general&#8217;s findings back to the AG for a punishment, according to DeBoyer.
&#8220;If the secretary of state chooses not to refer this, that is an absolute dereliction of duty,&#8221; DeBoyer said.
&#8220;The opinion that was put out by the attorney general&#8217;s office, although finding that there was a violation, seemed to hedge in the direction of &#8216;There&#8217;s nothing we can do about it,'&#8221; he added. &#8220;There actually is, but it requires the secretary of state&#8217;s office to operate in an ethical manner and do what they should do, which is refer this to the attorney general&#8217;s office.&#8221;
Aric Nesbitt, the Michigan Republican Senate minority leader also running for governor, blasted Nessel&#8217;s office, telling The Daily Wire that the attorney general is protecting &#8220;her Democrat ally.&#8221;
&#8220;While AG Nessel, the top law enforcement official in the state, targets Trump with ridiculous lawsuits, she shields her Democrat ally from accountability,&#8221; Nesbitt said. &#8220;This double standard reeks of partisan bias, undermining election integrity. Michiganders deserve an attorney general who enforces the law, not one who holds herself and her allies above it.&#8221;
Benson&#8217;s campaign communications director, Alyssa Bradley, said on Monday, &#8220;We understand the Attorney General is issuing a new interpretation of the law.&#8221;
&#8220;We look forward to continuing the conversation with Michiganders about Jocelyn Benson&#8217;s vision to make our state the best place to be a kid, raise a kid, and call home by lowering housing costs, making our schools among the best in the nation, and standing up for our rights and freedoms,&#8221; Bradley added.
Benson defended her decision to announce her bid inside her office building in January, saying she didn&#8217;t want people to stand outside in the <a href="https://world-weather.info/forecast/usa/lansing/january-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">frigid</a> Michigan winter weather. She also argued that other candidates could use the space for campaign announcements, a carve-out in the campaign law that would put Benson in the clear. Nessel&#8217;s office rejected that argument, writing that her &#8220;belief was misplaced.&#8221;

Jocelyn Benson

Michigan Dem AG Finds Dem Secretary Of State Violated Campaign Law, But Won’t Punish Her

Attorney General

Michigan

Editor’s note: This is the fifth installment of a six-part series by pollster Brent Buchanan on the politics of the American South. Last week, Buchanan took a close look at North Carolina. Today, he dives into another swing state — Georgia — to tell the story of the South&#8217;s political crossroads.
We hope you enjoy.
—
Georgia isn’t just a battleground. It’s the South’s political crossroads, where more regional identities collide than anywhere else.
While some of the regions are too small to have an outsized influence on statewide races, their presence as a mixing agent within the more prominent regions cements Georgia’s unofficial status as the capital of the South – and the ultimate test for both parties.
Our analysis of Southern politics found that Georgia contains more of the South’s distinct regions than any other state. From a wall of “Trumpian Highlands” banding the northern border of the state, to pockets of hardened “Sweet Tea Suburbs” and a sprawling “Dixieland” with vestiges of the “Soulful South,” and a surprising emergence of “Republican Resettlers” encroaching up from Florida, pundits and politicos alike have their eyes on Georgia and especially its upcoming 2026 gubernatorial and Senate races.
“Georgia as a high-profile state is nothing new to politics,” said Nicholas Valdiviez, Cygnal’s Sampling Lead for this comprehensive analysis. “But when you look at the state through the lens of our unique regional analysis, Georgia has more complex regions at play than any other state, and in the context of the 2026 midterm elections, those complexities help explain the intrigue of unseating Senator Jon Ossoff (D) and holding onto the Governor’s mansion.”
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-919423" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Analysis-Map-525x576.png" alt="" width="525" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Analysis-Map-525x576.png 525w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Analysis-Map-273x300.png 273w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Analysis-Map.png 562w" sizes="(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px" /></div>
It’s true that Georgia’s status as a swing state is almost exclusively driven by the fact that a still-deeply-red state is represented by two far-Left senators. It just so happens that it’s time for Ossoff to defend his seat (and abysmal record out of step with most of even purple Georgia) against an unknown Republican challenger, now that outgoing Republican Governor Brian Kemp (a longtime Cygnal client) has ruled out a run to unseat Ossoff.
<h3>A Complex Political Patchwork: The Peach State Defies Simple Labels.</h3>
Speaking about a possible Kemp Senate run, nationally syndicated radio host Erick Erickson noted that many governors-turned-senators find themselves unhappy in the world’s greatest deliberative body.
And Kemp understands — perhaps better than any other elected official in Georgia — that while the state’s political map might look like a simple red versus blue situation articulating an urban-rural divide, it’s actually a mosaic of regions with overlapping and rapidly changing political identities.
Take the so-called “Black Belt,” a region with high concentrations of Black voters, which delivers reliably Democratic margins in states like Alabama and Mississippi. In Georgia, the Black Belt runs from Columbus to Macon to Augusta — where it displays fewer characteristics of the monolithic voting bloc it used to be.
Today, this region is dominated by what we’ve dubbed “Dixieland” voters. Unlike other areas in the state — especially surrounding Atlanta, which have seen high-impact demographic swings — voters in Georgia’s Black Belt region now demonstrate voting patterns more akin to Dixieland, which is just over 15% African American, than ever before.
The demographics are the same, but the sentiment has changed. Dixieland voters have the highest propensity for weekly religious services of any group at 37%, and the lowest “not religious” population at 14%, combined with one of the highest rates of any of the regions who say the country is on the right track +21, and +35 support for Trump.
DATA NOTE: When we conducted this analysis, we fully expected the well-known Black Belt to emerge as a prominent visual feature on our Georgia map — but it didn’t — and, like many of the other elements covered in this <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/author/brent-buchanan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">series</a>, it further demonstrates just how dynamic and consequential the South has become to political power in the United States. 
Two additional trends are emerging in Georgia, both influenced by neighboring states, again proving the regionality of our analysis is shaping the South’s political map.
First, in the northern part of the state, where the Trumpian Highlands extend all the way down from Tennessee until they meet those <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/beyond-the-swing-why-southern-suburbs-refuse-to-budge?author=Brent+Buchanan&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=1&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Beyond+The+Swing%3A+Why+Southern+Suburbs+Refuse+To+Budge%C2%A0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hardened “Sweet Tea Suburbs&#8221;</a> that surround Atlanta, with another small pocket around the state line near Chattanooga. This is where speculated senate candidate and firebrand Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene hails from, and all three of the congressional districts in that area are held by Republicans. These are some of the most Republican areas in the country, with Georgia’s 14th and 9th congressional districts voting for Trump by an imposing 68-31 and 67-33 margins, respectively.
As our data below indicate, before 2016, Republicans won in the Dixieland portions of Georgia by an average of 29%. But in the Trump Era, that margin rose to 39%. Notably, even with a minor dip in 2020, Dixieland recovered quickly for the 2024 cycle, shifting 4% back to the right from 2020, and up 3% compared to 2016.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-919425" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Pre-Post-Trump-Regional-Names.png" alt="" width="515" height="177" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Pre-Post-Trump-Regional-Names.png 515w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Pre-Post-Trump-Regional-Names-300x103.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 515px) 100vw, 515px" /></div>
Unlike Part IV of this series, where North Carolina’s divisions created a sort of mixing zone between east and west, the Trumpian Highlands of Georgia create a hard line between Atlanta’s suburbs. This makes some of the regional fluidity we see in other areas of the South less evident in Northern Georgia. Factor in those collar counties of Henry, Rockdale, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb surrounding Atlanta, and the political picture of north Georgia makes this part of the state less likely to produce surprises or statewide leaders.
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-919431" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Broader-Stateline-View-CUT-2-470x576.png" alt="" width="470" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Broader-Stateline-View-CUT-2-470x576.png 470w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Broader-Stateline-View-CUT-2-245x300.png 245w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Cygnal-DW-Georgia-Broader-Stateline-View-CUT-2.png 508w" sizes="(max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px" /></div>
Georgia has another political encroachment from its neighbor to the south, Florida. In our analysis, we identified “Republican Resettlers,” areas that have absorbed a significant influx of newcomers, many times from more liberal states, who are self-selecting for conservative communities. Unlike legacy Southern strongholds, Republican Resettlers’ political identity is shaped more by recent population movement and community choice than by deep historical roots. This growth in southeast Georgia, where we’ve seen Republican Resettlers’ encroachment, is mirrored in population increases in the mentioned areas from 2020 to 2022.
As Georgia remains an attractive place for many of these voters, our maps show this region, while not yet decisive, is quietly growing as conservatives migrate north along the coast toward places like Brunswick, Savannah, and even Valdosta. That’s a trend worth watching as the state’s population continues to surge.
“Nobody argues that Georgia is evolving politically, or that it’s a key state, especially with all the media attention surrounding Ossoff’s very vulnerable position,” said Valdiviez. “But what our analysis and maps show is a state that has both hardened lines of political division and zones of increasing transition. It proves that two things can be true in a marquee southern state: Georgia is prone to rigidity and it’s not immune to prevailing regional shifts.”
<h3>So What? Why The Patchwork Matters.</h3>
Georgia’s regional complexity isn’t just a curiosity for pollsters like us or casual and professional political junkies — it is a real-world challenge for campaigns and an absolute bellwether for the national parties — even if Ossoff is on the ropes for 2026. With so many overlapping and shifting identities, the Peach State forces both Democrats and Republicans to move beyond one-size-fits-all messaging.
The state’s “swing” status isn’t an accident. It’s a direct result of these dynamic, sometimes contradictory, regional trends. As flight from liberal states continues, even from other Republican states, and as the Republican Resettlers gain ground along Georgia&#8217;s coastal plains, the map will only get more complicated and more consequential.
With Kemp out of the 2026 Senate race, the race is on to determine who can unite enough of these regions to build a winning coalition. The GOP’s search for a candidate with true statewide appeal is wide open, while Democrats must defend ground in the face of a weak candidate, demographic churn, and voter fatigue. The lesson from Georgia is clear: turnout, connective messaging, and a Kemp-style understanding of local nuance are everything. Ignore the state’s patchwork at your peril.
<h3>The Battleground That Won’t Quit.</h3>
Georgia’s story is largely the South’s story.
It’s a state where no single region, candidate, or trend can guarantee victory. It’s a mix of hardened Republican strongholds, fast-growing Democratic suburbs, and emerging zones of transition, which means every election is up for grabs.
The Peach State’s political future will be decided not by national narratives or simple red-blue maps, but by the ability of campaigns to read the local landscape and adapt. In a nation increasingly defined by polarization and migration, Georgia stands as the ultimate test — and frankly, the ultimate prize for anyone hoping to shape the next era of American politics.
COMING UP NEXT: In Part VI, the final installment of our series, we’ll tie together the lessons from our analysis and offer a glimpse at what’s in store for the South and the nation as we head for the 2026 midterms. 
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-919429" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Full-Map-1.jpeg" alt="" width="670" height="407" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Full-Map-1.jpeg 670w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/05/Full-Map-1-300x182.jpeg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px" /></div>
READING THE MAP: When reading our map, keep in mind that we intentionally moved beyond traditional state lines to capture the true complexity of Southern politics. Each of the ten regions was named to reflect its unique cultural, demographic, and historical identity, whether it’s the steadfast conservatism of Dixieland, the dynamic growth of the Republican Resettlers, or the inelasticity of the Sweet Tea Suburbs.
These names aren’t just for color; they’re a practical tool for understanding how voter behavior clusters in ways that state boundaries simply can’t explain. We used a rigorous, data-driven approach combining ZIP-code-level analysis, weighted demographic variables, and historical voting trends to identify and define each region. The result is a map that highlights not just where voters are, but how and why they vote the way they do, offering a more actionable and nuanced guide for anyone looking to understand or influence the South’s evolving political landscape.

Ossoff and Warnock

What The Peach State’s Political Patchworks Mean For 2026 

Brian Kemp

Jon Ossoff

Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has a clear path to the GOP nomination for Ohio governor after the state&#8217;s attorney general, Dave Yost, announced on Friday that he is suspending his short-lived campaign.
Yost said his chances went from a &#8220;steep climb&#8221; to &#8220;a vertical cliff&#8221; after the Ohio GOP threw its support behind Ramaswamy last week for the 2026 race, The Columbus Dispatch <a href="https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/16/dave-yost-drops-out-of-ohio-governors-race/80306921007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>.
&#8220;I do not wish to divide my political party or my state with a quixotic battle over the small differences between my vision and that of my opponent. I am simply not that important,&#8221; Yost <a href="https://www.wcpo.com/news/state/state-ohio/ag-dave-yost-suspends-his-campaign-to-be-ohios-governor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">added</a>.
President Donald Trump backed Ramaswamy&#8217;s bid immediately after the tech entrepreneur launched his campaign in February. Ramaswamy was initially set to work in the Trump administration alongside Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, but it was revealed on Inauguration Day that he would not serve in that role.
Yost said he wants Republicans to focus on defeating Democrats instead of a &#8220;family squabble.&#8221;
&#8220;Columbus needs re-engineering, not demolition,&#8221; Yost wrote in a letter to his supporters. &#8220;Sherrod Brown and the risky progressive ideas of his party will unwind all of the good that the last 15 years of Republican leadership has brought. This is a time to protect Ohio, not a time for a family squabble.&#8221;
Ramaswamy praised Yost in a statement and said that the attorney general will continue to play a role in the state&#8217;s political future.
&#8220;Congratulations to Dave on running a thoughtful campaign,&#8221; Ramaswamy said. &#8220;He has served Ohio with great dedication, and I am confident he will continue to play an important role in shaping the future of our state and our nation.&#8221;
While the Ohio GOP rallies behind Ramaswamy, Lt. Governor Jim Tressel — the former Ohio State football coach — said last week that he is considering jumping into the race, NBC News <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/ohio-lt-gov-jim-tressel-confirms-considering-run-governor-rcna205734" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>. Tressel was tapped by current Republcian Gov. Mike DeWine to become lieutenant governor after Jim Husted was appointed to fill the Senate seat left vacant by Vice President JD Vance.
“What has been a surprise, and it has been humbling, is how many people are encouraging me to run for Governor,” Tressel said.
“I have not decided yet, but when I became Lieutenant Governor in February, Ellen told me that it seemed like God had more work for me to do, and she was right,&#8221; he added, referring to his wife. &#8220;While I have not ruled out a run for Governor — and there will be a time in the future for those conversations — for now, I will remain focused on helping Ohioans get off the sidelines and into our workforce so they can reach their full potential.&#8221;
In the GOP primary, Ramaswamy&#8217;s only declared opponent is Heather Hill, the former president of the Morgan County, Ohio, School Board, who is running a longshot bid.
On the Democratic side, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health, Amy Acton, is the only candidate who has jumped into the race. Along with former Sen. Brown, former U.S. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has <a href="https://www.wosu.org/2025-05-15/democrat-tim-ryan-says-hell-decide-this-summer-if-hell-run-for-ohio-governor-next-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expressed interest</a> in running for Ohio governor.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ohio AG Drops Out Of Governor’s Race, Giving Vivek Ramaswamy Clear Path To GOP Nomination

Donald Trump

governor

Ohio

Self-described &#8220;working class&#8221; Democrat congressional hopeful Hanna Trudo was exposed after conservative podcast hosts discovered her Ferrari ownership and membership on a millionaire dating site.
Trudo, a former journalist for The Daily Beast, Politico, and The Hill, announced her potential congressional run for New Hampshire&#8217;s first district in early May, <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2025/05/05/trade-deal-done-00326237">claiming</a> that she grew up in a &#8220;working-class&#8221; family that received heating assistance.
&#8220;Like many families, we received heating assistance at times to get through our freezing winters. While my mom was not able to go to college or buy a home due to the high cost of living, she worked tirelessly as a public school Title 1 reading aide,&#8221; Trudo <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14717429/hanna-trudo-new-hampshire-congress-ruthless-podcast.html">wrote</a> in her campaign announcement, according to the Daily Mail.
The hosts of the conservative &#8220;Ruthless&#8221; podcast began investigating Trudo&#8217;s background after she initially offered to appear on their show, but then reportedly ghosted producers for several weeks.
Their <a href="https://youtu.be/Xg9OTcuYbWU?si=O8vPlLnmNjj-Y49y&amp;t=1855">investigation</a> uncovered a profile on Luxy, an exclusive dating website that requires users to have a &#8220;verified annual income&#8221; exceeding $200,000 and describes itself as a platform where &#8220;only sophisticated, successful and people of quality join.&#8221;
According to Luxy’s <a href="https://www.onluxy.com/?srsltid=AfmBOooVjVCVtawXcSGEs8w38DpBCssuc0XIFQsH59HEaCS03pUnFnFI">website</a>, “60% of our members have a verified annual income of more than €200,000,” or $223,000, and “41% verified income greater than €1 million,” or $1.1 million.
On the dating profile featuring her name and photo, Trudo described herself as a &#8220;senior political correspondent, splitting my time between DC (weekdays), NYC, &amp; Miami (for fun).&#8221;
The podcast team also discovered that Trudo had posted an image of a Ferrari on social media, offering it for sale.
Trudo responded to the Daily Mail article on X, writing: “Sorry gentlemen, I like fashion AND Medicare for All! $15 minimum wage.”
“You can try and shame me into not running for NH1 because you hate progressives, but not for being a fabulous woman.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Sorry gentlemen, I like fashion AND Medicare for All! $15 minimum wage.
You can try and shame me into not running for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NH1?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NH1</a> because you hate progressives, but not for being a fabulous woman
Live Free or Die <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nhpolitics?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nhpolitics</a> <a href="https://t.co/7NxPKLSEAB">https://t.co/7NxPKLSEAB</a>
— Hanna Trudo (@HCTrudo) <a href="https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1923397715305631775?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Trudo initially announced her interest in running for Congress with messaging focused heavily on working-class advocacy.
&#8220;I&#8217;m simply writing with the same fire I&#8217;ve spit for the past decade: Democrats must be better,&#8221; she <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-administration-nfl-draft-tariffs-immigration-doge-live-updates-rcna204587/rcrd78355?canonicalCard=true">wrote</a> in her campaign memo, per NBC News.
&#8220;Under Donald Trump’s off-brand of authoritarian politics, we are no longer free. Our First Amendment freedoms are being cruelly ripped away by Trump, Elon Musk and other obscenely rich, unelected tech lackeys who have contempt for us.&#8221;
She specifically cited Senator Bernie Sanders&#8217; (I-VT) failed presidential campaign as her inspiration to explore a run for office, <a href="https://x.com/HCTrudo/status/1915107197010272501">emphasizing</a> that &#8220;new blood matters alongside a working class agenda.&#8221;
Her announcement was met with amusement from conservative media outlets, who pointed to her candidacy as more evidence that many Washington, D.C., journalists harbor partisan Democratic leanings while claiming journalistic objectivity.
The Washington Free Beacon combed through Trudo’s tweets, revealing a “left-wing activist feed” convinced that America was &#8220;no longer free&#8221; under President Donald, in addition to less-than-objective headlines like “Sanders steps back into role as anti-oligarch crusader.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
NEW: Hanna Trudo, a journalist who covered the Democratic Party for The Hill, is &#8220;exploring&#8221; a run for Congress in New Hampshire.
It seems redundant to mention that Trudo would be running as a Democrat, but there you have it.<a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewStilesUSA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AndrewStilesUSA</a> has reviewed Trudo’s social media… <a href="https://t.co/FPemlT9kKa">pic.twitter.com/FPemlT9kKa</a>
— Washington Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) <a href="https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1919770960292429989?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
New Hampshire&#8217;s first congressional district is currently represented by Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas, who announced that he is running for Senate in 2026.

US dollars

Dem Congressional Hopeful’s ‘Working Class’ Persona Crumbles After Lavish Lifestyle Exposed

Bernie Sanders

Democratic Party

Media Bias

New Hampshire

Former President Joe Biden jumped back into the public spotlight, giving his first few interviews since his Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election to President Donald Trump, and the response from Democrats has been unequivocal: they want him to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/11/biden-go-away-00339909" target="_blank" rel="noopener">go away</a>.
Biden&#8217;s appearance on ABC&#8217;s &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/joe-biden-gets-one-question-about-his-cognitive-decline-jill-has-to-help-him-answer-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The View</a>&#8221; on Thursday sparked a number of reactions, especially after he struggled so mightily with a question about his obvious cognitive decline that former First Lady Jill Biden felt compelled to intervene and answer the question on her husband&#8217;s behalf.
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha told Politico that the main positive with regard to Biden&#8217;s appearance on &#8220;The View&#8221; was that the selection of the new Pope quickly took over the news cycle.
&#8220;It’s time for Joe Biden to go away with all due respect and let the next generation of Democrats take the mantle,” Rocha said. “Every time he appears on a show or says something, it’s just another week or a month that we have to defend him and remind everybody that we got beat by Donald Trump, again. &#8230; For those of us trying to rebuild the brand, it does no good when you’re constantly reminded about the old brand that won’t go away.&#8221;
Amanda Litman, co-founder of the progressive group Run for Something, agreed with Rocha: &#8220;Every interview that Biden does drags us backwards and reminds people of the older generation of Democrats that got us into this mess — when attention is our scarcest resource, we need to prioritize hearing from the next generation of leaders who could excite and rebuild the party.&#8221;
But even if Biden were to stop doing interviews entirely, Democrats will still have his legacy to contend with as more and more information comes out about his decline in books like the upcoming &#8220;<a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/jake-tapper-who-ignored-signs-of-bidens-decline-releasing-book-on-the-cover-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Original Sin</a>,&#8221; written by CNN anchor Jake Tapper and Axios&#8217; Alex Thompson. Republicans also appear ready to move forward with the release of audio from Biden&#8217;s interviews with former Special Counsel <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/special-counsel-robert-hur-gives-explosive-testimony-to-congress-about-criminal-probe-into-biden" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Robert Hur</a>.

President Biden Addresses NAACP Convention In Las Vegas

Democrats Are Getting Desperate, Begging Joe Biden To ‘Just Go Away’

Democrats Are Getting Desperate, Begging Joe Biden To 'Just Go Away'

2024 Election

Joe Biden

Editor’s note: This is the third installment of a six-part series by pollster Brent Buchanan on the politics of the American South. Last week, Buchanan explored the shifting priorities of minority voters in the South — and why Democrats shouldn’t take those voters for granted. This week, he breaks down the unique features, and critical importance, of the Southern suburbs.
We hope you enjoy.
—
Few things embody American culture and consumerism better than the suburbs.
Both a subject of generational aspiration and comedic ridicule, America’s suburbs remain a bridge to a nostalgic past and the ideal archetype of the “American Dream,” where home ownership, good schools, and safe neighborhoods still represent the opportunity of upward mobility and a prosperous future.
It&#8217;s fitting, then, with backyard barbecue season approaching, that, in part three of this series, we examine why the suburbs in America’s South have been politically stagnant.
While many of the country’s suburbs are rapidly shifting, voting behavior and partisanship in Southern suburbs are remarkably stable. This “stuck in neutral” dynamic is shaping the political battlegrounds of tomorrow — and it’s not necessarily a disadvantage for Republicans. If Democrats keep choosing the 20 percent side of 80/20 issues — like men in women’s sports, deporting illegals, or prioritizing the rights of nefarious illegal immigrants over crime victims — they’ll lose votes to Republicans or drive their own voters to stay home in the 2026 midterm elections.
That would be good news for Republicans. But our analysis of the South suggests its suburbs are much more hardened than its northern or western counterparts. Too often, mostly on Election Night, pundits and analysts rush to describe the country’s suburbs as hotly contested areas with high concentrations of swing voters.
While this is true for suburban pockets elsewhere in America, it is not the case in the South.
“As we mentioned in part one of this series, when we described the <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-rise-of-the-south-is-not-what-you-think-why-it-holds-the-keys-to-political-control" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sweet Tea Suburbs</a>, their inelasticity reflects a unique dynamic that poses a significant challenge for Republicans,” says Nicholas Valdiviez, Cygnal’s Sampling Lead for this exclusive Daily Wire project. “The GOP could seek to strengthen its performance in other areas to offset suburban stagnation, or they could try to crack through some of these areas, though the payoff would be incremental and likely extend beyond 2026.”
<h3>The Faux South: A Case Study in Suburban Inelasticity</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-911457" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-The-Faux-South-1.png" alt="" width="690" height="535" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-The-Faux-South-1.png 690w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-The-Faux-South-1-300x233.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px" /></div>
The word faux is not used as a negative slight toward any of the great people or communities of this region, nor to detract from their “southernness.” In fact, as an important descriptor for this far-reaching analysis of America’s South, the term illustrates the region’s distinct and historically vital role as a sprawling gateway to the southern heartlands shaped more by commerce and trade routes than agriculture, combined with its geographical position along the borderlands of our nation’s capital.
Voters here, especially in Virginia, will tell you they are absolutely Southern — with the exception of those hard-left-leaning folks living in the DC-Maryland-Virginia (DMV) nexus along the Potomac River. Surrounding the ineffectual machinations of DC, the Faux South covers all of Maryland, most of West Virginia through the Alleghany Mountains, throughout middle and southeastern Virginia, extending down to coastal and near-inland North Carolina.
From 2016 to 2020, the Faux South saw the largest surge in Democratic turnout in the Southern United States — a 48% increase — but Republican turnout also jumped by 27%, marking the biggest regional year-over-year turnout shift in the last 16 years. At face value, that would signal some tailwinds for Republicans as the Faux South mixes most frequently with the Trumpian Highlands, another southern transitionary region. But it is the presence of the Sweet Tea Suburbs that serves as a sort of counteractive ingredient to such tailwinds.
Examining Virginia and North Carolina as the dominant states of the Faux South, we measured a strong voter disenfranchisement for elected officials at all levels, more than any other region in the South. Even our latest National Voter Trends (NVT) <a href="https://www.cygn.al/poll-democrats-continue-to-struggle-as-trump-maintains-strong-approval-even-in-light-of-tariffs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a> bears this out: voters in this region had high mistrust of their elected officials from local positions like mayor and city council up to their Member of Congress. The Faux South’s approval of their congressional representatives falls nearly four standard deviations below the average (18-point approval vs. the average of 29%, or the high of 36%). Even approval of their state legislators is 10 points below the average, and five points below the average of mayors and/or village presidents.
While the numbers are net positive in our latest NVT and across all regions in the South, they&#8217;re markedly lower here than in the other regions. And despite surges in turnout, this sentiment influences how voters in the Faux South differ from the other regions’ more rightward leanings, making them more likely to disengage altogether or maintain the status quo.
Yet, as entrenched as this region can be, there are some silver linings for Republicans. Since Virginia governors are limited to two nonconsecutive terms, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears shows the most <a href="https://www.cygn.al/virginia-governor-race-poll-sears-positioned-for-strong-showing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">promising </a>signs to galvanize a broad base of support and carry on the progress of widely popular outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin. How the battles for Republican control of state legislative seats, particularly in suburban districts, with Sears atop the ticket, will indicate how well Republicans have begun to crack the Faux South.
North Carolina is a tougher story for Republicans. Though the state saw a shift rightward from 2020 to 2024, the tension lies in this portion of the Faux South’s proximity to the Sweet Tea Suburbs. The &#8220;Research Triangle,&#8221; the area between Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, is central to scattered pockets of Sweet Tea Suburbs, which we described earlier as nearly immovable (split in 2020 and only R+3 in 2024), upper middle-class neighborhoods with high economic mobility. The confluence of these regions, combined with large areas of Trumpian Highlands in the western parts of the state, makes North Carolina more resistant to significant Republican gains.
<h3>Influence of Cities</h3>
<div class="image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-911459" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-part-III-four-cities-652x576.png" alt="" width="652" height="576" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-part-III-four-cities-652x576.png 652w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-part-III-four-cities-300x265.png 300w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-part-III-four-cities-768x678.png 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2025/04/DW-part-III-four-cities.png 798w" sizes="(max-width: 652px) 100vw, 652px" /></div>
The overall trend remains one of inelasticity, with only a modest Republican recovery and little evidence of the dramatic swings seen elsewhere. But the hardening of the South&#8217;s suburbs is also heavily influenced by the region&#8217;s cities. Some are burgeoning hubs of economic revitalization, while others are still stuck in neutral themselves and struggle to keep pace with the South’s rising political prominence.
The most salient point to describe the odd relationship between Southern cities and suburbs is that voters in the ‘burbs tend to be more woke and believe in Leftist virtue signaling as a way to prove their solidarity with the more economically-stratified and depressed conditions of largely-minority city dwellers. &#8220;Normies,&#8221; as Ben Shapiro might call them, chalk this up to the same old political pandering we’ve seen from highly educated suburbanite Democrats. But the political symbiosis of Southern cities and many of their surrounding suburbs has created a concrete structure for social and political acceptance of the status quo.
Compounding this disjointed interdependency is the high rate of disenfranchisement among city dwellers, especially among minority voters, who tend to view these strongholds of Democratic leadership as a matter of course — years of broken and empty promises have led less to an embrace of Republicans and more to full-on disengagement. Contrast this with cities like Chicago, where more minority communities are starting to push back against entrenched and corrupt Democratic leadership.
What makes so many of the South’s suburbs hardened to political swings, especially in Republicans’ favor, is this symbiotic relationship with many of its cities.
In recent elections, we saw the opposite happen in northern states like Ohio, where suburbs like those outside Columbus and Cleveland helped turn that state from a closely-watched swing state in presidential election years to a reliably red state. Southern cities like Memphis, meanwhile, mix heavily with the Big Sky South and Soulful South, keeping it politically stagnant and resistant to major partisan shifts.
We see something similar in Huntsville, where explosive population and economic growth have made the area more influential within Alabama. With a heavy dose of Trumpian Highlands to mix with, the surrounding suburbs continue to reflect consistent voting patterns year after year.
Similarly, Birmingham and Charleston’s suburbs have not experienced significant partisan shifts. Even as their urban cores evolve, their suburbs have not experienced significant political swings, despite some of the prevailing Soulful South trends we noted in <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/the-end-of-democratic-assumptions-how-minority-voters-are-reshaping-southern-politics?topStoryPosition=undefined&amp;author=Brent+Buchanan&amp;category=News+and+Analysis&amp;elementPosition=0&amp;row=1&amp;rowHeadline=Top+Stories&amp;rowType=Top+Stories&amp;title=The+End+of+Democratic+Assumptions%3A+How+Minority+Voters+Are+Reshaping+Southern+Politics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">part two</a> of this series.
This persistent inelasticity underscores how deeply-rooted disenfranchisement and longstanding racial and cultural undercurrents keep these Southern cities and their surrounding suburbs in a perpetual state of tension, making them the most resistant to the nationwide political and generational realignment that has accelerated in the Trump era.
For Republicans, the challenge is to find incremental gains in both the suburbs and cities or look beyond these gridlocked areas for more growth in regions like the Big Hat Bloc or among the Republican Resettlers. In those two regions, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2023/12/07/hispanics-in-the-rio-grande-valley-are-now-swing-voters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hispanic populations</a> in particular are ripe for additional Republican gains.
For Democrats, the risk of alienating moderate voters or encouraging disengagement is more real than ever. If they continue to champion positions out of step with the suburban mainstream, Republicans can capitalize. This gives credence to the strategy of letting your opponents make unforced errors.
As the South continues to grow in population and political influence, the lesson is clear: state lines and national narratives rarely capture the true dynamics at play. The inelasticity of Southern suburbs is less a sign of stagnation than a testament to the encroaching fallout from the national political realignment.
COMING UP NEXT: All eyes are on Georgia and North Carolina ahead of the 2026 midterms. As two of the most prominent Democratic holdouts in the South, parts four and five of this series will delve into the extent of their influence and whether they’ll remain regional hegemons or embrace the coming red wave of longstanding conservative control.

Neat line of suburban houses in Fairfax, Virginia

Beyond The Swing: Why Southern Suburbs Refuse To Budge 

Glenn Youngkin

Suburbs

Virginia

Voting

Washington D.C.

Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is reportedly weighing a run for New York governor and signaled that she could jump into the race with a statement on Wednesday blasting New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Stefanik, who served as House Republican Conference chair from 2021 to 2025, steadily rose through the ranks of the GOP after first winning her seat in 2014. The Republican Congresswoman has been encouraged to run for governor by New York Republicans and some of Trump&#8217;s allies, POLITICO <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/16/stefanik-considering-run-for-governor-of-new-york-00293028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>, citing &#8220;two people familiar with her thinking.&#8221; On Wednesday, Stefanik <a href="https://x.com/EliseStefanik/status/1912565080849555603" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blasted</a> Hochul, pointing to new <a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-state-of-new-york-april-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">polling</a> from Marist that shows the Democratic governor&#8217;s approval rating at 39%.
&#8220;This latest bombshell polling proves what every New Yorker already knows: that we must FIRE Kathy Hochul in 2026 to SAVE NEW YORK,&#8221; Stefanik wrote. &#8220;Hochul is the Worst Governor in America and it’s not even close.&#8221;
&#8220;Her incompetence, corruption, and radical failed Far Left policies have destroyed our great state causing businesses and families to flee from crushing high taxes, out of control regulations, inept fiscal mismanagement, wide open border sanctuary city policies putting illegals first and NYers last, and an out of control crime crisis due to Democrats’ failed bail reform defund the police policies,&#8221; Stefanik added. &#8220;This polling shows that we can WIN &amp; SAVE NEW YORK.&#8221;
The Marist poll also showed that 57% of New Yorkers &#8220;do not want Hochul to run for re-election in 2026,&#8221; a number that includes 40% of Democrats. Sixty-four percent of the state&#8217;s voters say that New York&#8217;s economy is deteriorating, which is a big spike from the 51% who said the same a year ago.
President Donald Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114347490565859534" target="_blank" rel="noopener">praised</a> Stefanik in an early morning Truth Social post on Wednesday, writing without context, &#8220;Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!&#8221;
Stefanik, who has been a loyal supporter of Trump, was <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-pulls-stefanik-nomination-united-nations-ambassador" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tapped</a> by the president to serve as U.N. ambassador in the new Trump administration, but her nomination was pulled as Trump deemed it more important to keep her in the House and &#8220;maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress.&#8221; Stefanik&#8217;s 21st Congressional District is a competitive area, and Democrats held the seat for more than 20 straight years before Stefanik took it back for the GOP.
Hochul, who took over after former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual misconduct allegations in 2021, has already declared her candidacy for 2026. Former Democratic Rep. Jamaal &#8220;fire alarm&#8221; Bowman has <a href="https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/12/13/i-wish-i-didn-t-pull-that-damn-fire-alarm---rep--bowman-reflects-on-time-in-congress--primary-loss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hinted</a> at a potential run for governor, as has Democratic Rep. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/22/torres-hochul-governor-campaign-00191249" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ritchie Torres</a>.
If Stefanik jumps into the race, she would likely be the leading Republican candidate. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is also reportedly mulling a run.

‘We Must FIRE Kathy Hochul’: Rising Republican Star Signals Run For NY Governor

Former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is running for Senate again in Michigan, jumping into the race on Monday to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat.
Rogers said in his announcement video that Michigan &#8220;for too long&#8221; has &#8220;been represented by two-faced politicians who say they&#8217;re moderates but vote as radicals when they get elected.&#8221; Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994, and last November, Rogers became the latest candidate in a long line of Michigan Republicans who failed to win back a Senate seat for the GOP when he lost to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin by more than 19,000 votes.
&#8220;As your next senator, I won&#8217;t just represent Michigan, I&#8217;ll fight for it,&#8221; Rogers said. &#8220;I&#8217;ll stand with President Trump, and we will deliver on the mandate given to him by the American people.&#8221;
&#8220;For me, it will always be America and Michigan first, rewarding hard work and investing in the skilled trades, cutting wasteful spending, lowering the costs of gas, groceries, and prescription drugs,&#8221; he added. &#8220;Alongside President Trump, I&#8217;ll fight to bring good, high-paying manufacturing jobs back to Michigan, and I guarantee we&#8217;ll protect Social Security for our seniors.&#8221;
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President Trump needs strong allies in the Senate to help him deliver on the mandate given by the American people. 
That means bringing manufacturing jobs back to Michigan, protecting seniors’ social security, lowering the costs of gas, groceries &amp; prescription drugs, and… <a href="https://t.co/MBNn5gcZ4t">pic.twitter.com/MBNn5gcZ4t</a>
&mdash; Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeRogersForMI/status/1911736873946317227?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, threw his support behind Rogers shortly after the Michigan Republican announced his run for Senate.
&#8220;Mike will always put Michigan first, fight for the needs of working families, and stand up to communist China,&#8221; Scott <a href="https://x.com/votetimscott/status/1911738722401255471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> on X. &#8220;Michigan is a battleground state, and with @MikeRogersForMI as our candidate, I know we will add this seat to President Trump&#8217;s Senate Majority in 2026.&#8221;
Rogers is the first high-profile Republican to jump into the 2026 Senate race. Tudor Dixon, the GOP&#8217;s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, is considering a Senate bid, but she has yet to make a decision. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow announced her run for the seat earlier this month. Michigan Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel is also considering a run. Former presidential candidate and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who recently moved to Michigan, ruled out a Senate run last month.
Rogers was endorsed by then-candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 election and appeared with him multiple times during campaign rallies in the Great Lakes State. Trump won Michigan over former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 80,000 votes on his way to the White House, but Trump&#8217;s strong showing in the swing state didn&#8217;t trickle down the ballot enough to pull Rogers across the finish line.
Before he spent time in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2015, Rogers served in the U.S. Army and worked as a special agent for the FBI. He was also interviewed to potentially become the FBI director after Trump fired James Comey in 2017.

Mike Rogers

Former Michigan GOP Congressman Launches 2nd Senate Bid After Coming Up Short In 2024

Democrats

Republicans

Senate

Americans do not want their federal tax dollars paying for transgender medical procedures, new polling shows.
A significant majority, 66% of Americans, say federal tax dollars should not go toward &#8220;gender transition&#8221; procedures such as surgeries, cross-sex hormones, or puberty blockers, according to a new Cygnal poll from the American Principles Project provided exclusively to The Daily Wire.
The poll found that if an American voter knows a Democrat candidate supports using tax dollars to pay for &#8220;gender transition&#8221; procedures, 52% of those voters will vote Republican over that Democrat candidate.
Democrats initially held a one-point lead in the poll on a 2026 congressional midterm ballot, but when the poll-takers were informed the Democrat supports using tax dollars to pay for &#8220;gender transition&#8221; procedures, the electorate moved a net 14 points toward the Republican candidate.
Even 42% of Democrats and 43% of Kamala Harris voters said tax dollars should not be spent on &#8220;gender transitions,&#8221; the poll found. About two thirds, 66% of swing voters, said so as well.
Even 60% of women, who consistently lean Democrat, agreed they do not want tax dollars going toward medical &#8220;gender transitions.&#8221;
Majorities of black and Hispanic Americans, parents as well as unmarried men and women, and urban and suburban voters agreed as well, the poll showed.
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“This poll is proof of what we’ve known for a long time – the majority of Americans do not want their tax dollars being spent on gender transitions,&#8221; Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, said in a statement to The Daily Wire.
&#8220;I am glad that President Trump has already begun to take action on this popular, commonsense policy, but now it’s time for Congress to make the ban on federal funding for gender transitions permanent,” Schilling said.
Gender ideology in schools, transgender drugs and surgeries on minors, trans-identifying males in women&#8217;s sports and prisons all became hot button issues during the election cycle.
President Donald Trump&#8217;s most effective campaign ad in the past election cycle highlighted Harris&#8217; support for taxpayer-funded transgender medical services for prisoners.
&#8220;Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you,&#8221; the ad <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-exposed-kamalas-radical-stances-on-gender-americans-voted-against-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>.
The ad aired across the nation, including during football games. Trump advisors <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-exposed-kamalas-radical-stances-on-gender-americans-voted-against-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the message reached suburban women, who were also being hammered with Democrats&#8217; aggressive abortion ads.
Democrats are struggling to find a cohesive messaging strategy after they were walloped in the November election, losing every swing state to Trump.
However, some Democrats are already reading the room. California Governor Gavin Newsom backed away from his previous embrace of transgender issues on his podcast last month, calling men in women&#8217;s sports &#8220;deeply unfair.&#8221;
</div>

Pride protest

EXCLUSIVE: Americans Don’t Want Tax Dollars To Pay For Transgender Procedures, Poll Shows

Election

Gender

Social Issues

Transgender

U.S.

Rep. John James (R-MI) jumped into the 2026 race for Michigan governor on Monday, seeking to replace Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited.
James, 43, won his seat in Congress in 2022 after coming up short in two consecutive Senate races — losing to former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2018 and current Sen. Gary Peters (D) in 2020. In a statement announcing his candidacy, the U.S. Army veteran said that under Whitmer and Democrats&#8217; leadership, Michigan &#8220;has been dominated by radical, out-of-touch policies that have hurt our families, our communities, and our economy.&#8221;
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Faith and Family. God and Country. Service Before Self.
Michigan First. <a href="https://t.co/drYWqGSi3C">pic.twitter.com/drYWqGSi3C</a>
&mdash; John James (@JohnJamesMI) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnJamesMI/status/1909345196741193898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
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James joins Michigan Republican Senate Minority Leader <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/first-republican-throws-hat-in-the-ring-for-2026-michigan-governors-race" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aric Nesbitt</a> in the Republican primary for governor. Nesbitt, who announced his run in January, also focused on bringing manufacturing jobs back to Michigan in his announcement statement. Dixon has also stated that she&#8217;s considering running for governor or jumping into the Senate race for Sen. Peters&#8217; seat.
On the Democratic side, Secretary of State <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/michigan-dem-secretary-of-state-launches-bid-for-governor-hours-after-accidental-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jocelyn Benson</a> is running, along with Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Longtime Detroit Democratic Mayor Mike Duggan also <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/detroit-dem-mayor-announces-run-for-michigan-governor-as-independent" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a run for governor in December but said he is running as an independent.
Aside from losing to President Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2024 elections, Democrats have had a string of successes in statewide elections in recent years. Whitmer comfortably won re-election by 10 points in 2022 over Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. In the 2024 election, as Trump took the Great Lakes State by more than 80,000 votes, Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican Mike Rogers to keep retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow&#8217;s seat in the Democrats&#8217; hands.
James tied himself to President Trump in his announcement, writing that the two &#8220;have been in each other&#8217;s corner through thick and thin for eight years—no reason that will end now.&#8221; In the 2018 Michigan Republican Senate primary, James was endorsed by Trump just days before the primary election. He was endorsed by Trump again in 2020, and the two campaigned together.
&#8220;He&#8217;s doing his part to Make America Great Again, and I&#8217;ll do mine to bring prosperity and sanity back to Michigan,&#8221; James said.

John James

‘Bring Prosperity And Sanity Back’: GOP Congressman Enters Michigan Governor’s Race

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