Joe Biden simply cannot believe that Donald Trump is actually poised to win the 2024 election.
But here’s the reality by the polling data: Donald Trump is poised to win the 2024 election. Trump has a lead over Biden. Every poll except for one in the last couple months has Trump up pretty solidly.
If Trump wins the popular vote for the first time since a Republican won the popular vote in 2004, he’s going to win the election. It’s that simple. He came close to winning the election in 2020, even though he lost the popular vote by seven million votes.
Trump is leading big in states he lost last time, particularly in states like Georgia. He’s running dead even in Wisconsin. He’s running well ahead in Michigan and Ohio, the latter of which used to be a swing state.
A new CNN poll shows that Biden’s job approval rating is standing at 38%. He’s underwater with everyone.
So his conundrum is, how can he possibly win this election?
His strategy in 2020 was successful because of one simple fact: the change in the voting rules. Voter turnout in 2020 was leagues higher than it had been any time in the recent past. The voter turnout in that election was extraordinary; it was the highest level that the United States had experienced in terms of voter turnout since 1900.
All the rules changed when it came to voter turnout because people could vote three months in advance, and Biden was going to deploy the entire Democratic Party apparatus, have them arrive at your door, pick up your ballot so you could vote early and vote by mail again. While 60% of Democratic voters in 2020 voted by mail, about 35% or 30% of Republican voters did.
Yet Biden still only squeaked by. That was a close election. You can run up the score in places like California and New York because people hate Trump in terms of the popular vote. But in terms of the actual Electoral College vote, the election in 2020 was decided by an extraordinarily low number of votes: roughly 12,000 votes in Georgia; 11,000 votes in Arizona; 40,000 votes in Wisconsin; and 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania.
These are not big numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Could Trump reverse that trend? Not only could he, but it seems like he probably will.
That’s because Biden is not going to duplicate the voter turnout numbers of 2020. Presidents who win narrow elections and then lose votes between election one and election two tend not to win reelection. The only president who has lost votes in the modern era from his original election to his reelection effort and won was Barack Obama.
Biden is probably going to lose because he decided to abandon blue-collar white voters. The Democratic Party has been taken over since 2012 by a vision that was promoted by the media and by the Obama campaign. That vision was an everlasting Democratic majority forever, and it was going to be demographically based. The idea was that there was a rising minority coalition that would eventually become a demographic majority in the United States, and they would never lose another election. You could abandon white voters increasingly and build a coalition on the basis of minority voters and college-educated white ladies.
That was the coalition Obama rode to victory in 2012, despite being an exceptionally unpopular president at the time. But that relies on really heavy turnout from groups who very often do not turn out at those rates.
But Biden is not Barack Obama, and he’s not going to get the changes in rules he got in 2020. So he seems to be increasingly trying to cater to the new vision of what the Democratic Party base should be.
Right now, what is most important to understand is that nonwhite voters represent about 40% of all Democratic voters. That’s a huge number. The only reason that matters is because if the priority for the Democratic Party is to get that group of voters to turn out at very high rates, that means they’re going to have to pander to that group of voters.
That group of voters tends to have views on many issues that are left of where Biden traditionally has been. The areas where Democrats really outpolled Republicans were with minority voters and young people. The problem for Democrats is that those two groups of voters, historically speaking, have incredibly variable rates of turnout.
The white turnout rate tends not to vacillate very much. Rather, it tends to be fairly stable.
There is no personal allegiance in any way, shape, or form from people of color in the United States toward old white man Joe Biden.
So is that voter turnout number likely to go down, or is it likely to go up? The answer is: It’s very likely to go down in the 2024 election.
That’s not the only problem for Biden. The youth vote is something he heavily counted on in 2020. But heavy minority and youth turnout is not going to be able to duplicate anything like 2020.
Thus, Biden needs to pander to those voters.
That’s why there’s all of this heartburn over Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. That’s why the Democratic Party seems signally unable to sound off about the southern border, despite the fact it is a burgeoning huge problem for the United States. The Democratic Party cannot abandon what they think is the minority voting base and the youth voting base, which is presumably why all 150 votes against the vote yesterday in Congress to deport illegal immigrants who commit DUI were from Democrats.
The same thing is happening with regard to the Middle East. Biden is afraid of losing Michigan. It’s that simple. There are a lot of Muslim voters in Michigan, and according to polling data, Muslim voters in Michigan are unified in their hatred for Israel and also very much in favor of an appeasement-oriented policy toward states like Iran.
So Biden weaponized his intel officials to say that Iran was not responsible for things that Iran is clearly responsible for. Biden’s White House is now a PR agency for Iran.
Iran spreads terror over the region; its proxies shut down shipping in the Red Sea while Iran is incentivizing Hezbollah attacks on the north of Israel and Hamas rocket attacks on American troops in Jordan.
So Biden pretends Iran isn’t responsible for all of this in order to avoid escalation with Iran — because Biden does not want to alienate Muslim voters in Michigan. Last week, Julie Chávez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, traveled to Michigan, where, according to the Washington Free Beacon, she met with news publisher Osama Siblani, who has an extensive history of praising terrorist groups and has referred to Hamas and Hezbollah as freedom fighters.
Then Biden unleashed an executive order targeting Israeli settlers in an attempt to establish a false moral equivalence between Israeli settlers — meaning people who live east of the so-called Green Line in Judea and Samaria, the historic heartland of what used to be the kingdom of Israel — and Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank and terrorists in the Gaza Strip in order to win votes in Michigan.
All of this is because Biden knows he’s in trouble.