<p>Election day is Tuesday in Virginia, with a single question on the ballot: Whether to amend the constitution of the state so that Democrats will represent 10 out of 11 of the state&#8217;s congressional seats – even though the state is essentially evenly-divided, with Kamala Harris winning it with less than 52% of the presidential vote in 2024.</p>
<p>A defeat could be a serious blow to new Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who ran as a moderate and said she had no plans to engage in redistricting – only to preside over a series of ethically dubious moves to enact what is, by some measures, the most extreme gerrymandering in the country.</p>
<p>The ballot language asks voters if they want to &#8220;restore fairness.&#8221; The Spanberger administration encouraged county clerks <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrat-admits-to-unfair-map-while-keeping-voters-in-the-dark">not to display</a> maps on the ballot, and Democrats have largely tried to obscure the substance of the vote, reducing it to vague anti-Trump messaging.</p>
<p>Redistricting proponents like Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas say it&#8217;s retaliation for Texas conducting its own mid-decade redistricting. But a Daily Wire analysis found that the two aren&#8217;t comparable.</p>
<p>In Texas, Kamala Harris won 42% of the popular vote, but the new map favors Democrats in 21% of seats – a 21% gap. Virginia has a more evenly-split population, yet would have much more lopsided representation. Harris won with less than 52% of the vote, but Dems would have 91% of the seats. That&#8217;s a 39% gap.</p>
<p>That would be a shame, because Virginia currently has one of the most fairly constituted congressional delegations in the United States. Dems have 55% of the current House seats. That means even now, Democrats are slightly over-represented, not under-represented, in Congress, but this is the closest to an exact representation that is mathematically possible with 11 districts.</p>
<p>The data also does not support the Democrat argument that they are merely &#8220;fighting back&#8221; against Republicans who have outdone them in gerrymandering. 7/10 of the most-gerrymandered states are Dem, while 16/20 of the least-gerrymandered states are Republican. The five states with the largest gap between popular vote and House seats all favor Democrats:</p>
<ul>
<li>In New Mexico, Harris won less than 52% of votes, but not even one of the three congressional seats went to a Republican. The mismatch between 52% of votes and 100% of seats is 48!</li>
<li>This is common in New England. Harris won New Hampshire with 51% of the vote, but Democrats control both of the state&#8217;s House seats, instead of splitting them between parties to mirror the state&#8217;s makeup. That&#8217;s 51% vs 100%, for a disproportionality score of 49.</li>
<li>In Maine Harris won 53%, but Democrats have both seats, for a score of 47.</li>
<li>In Rhode Island it&#8217;s the same situation, but with Harris winning by 56%, for a score of 44.</li>
<li>Connecticut has five congressional seats, giving it ample opportunity to throw one to Republicans, considering Harris won only 56% of the popular vote. Yet Democrats control all five House seats, for a disproportionality index of 44.</li>
</ul>
<p>The Daily Wire&#8217;s analysis excluded states with only one House seat, which can&#8217;t be gerrymandered. You can explore how states&#8217; congressional delegations compare to their popular votes here:</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" src="https://dailywireinteractives.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/va-tx.html" width="100%" height="900px" frameborder="0"><span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start">﻿</span></iframe></p>
<p>The Texas map was opposed by Democrats on racial grounds, saying it deprived minorities of representation by scattering black voters instead of concentrating them. However, the Virginia map does the same thing. Whereas current districts are drawn around communities of interest, including black-heavy cities, the new map drives up Democrat margins by drawing districts with tentacles into the super-Democratic, but largely non-black, D.C. suburbs.</p>
<p>That would make it extremely difficult for congressmen to represent actual geographic interests, such as port cities, agricultural districts, or manufacturing centers, and five of the congressional districts would include Fairfax County, the D.C. suburb that shares little in common with the rest of the state.</p>
<p>It was previously against the law to enact partisan redistricting in Virginia, which Democrats got around by rescinding the law and making the rescission retroactive. Constitutional amendments must be voted on by the state legislature twice, with an election in between giving the populace the chance to punish lawmakers for such a vote.</p>
<p>Republicans say they violated the law there, too, because the first vote in the legislature took place after the lengthy early voting period – a Democrat initiative that persisted after COVID-19 restrictions begun to wind down.</p>

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What Happens At Virginia’s Polls Today Could Set A New Playbook For Elections Nationwide

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What Happens At Virginia’s Polls Today Could Set A New Playbook For Elections Nationwide