A shocking new poll from Quinnipiac — a polling firm that generally favors Democrat and left-leaning candidates — shows President Donald Trump beating every last contender for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination in the all-important, must-win state of Wisconsin, crushing Democrats’ hopes of retaking the White House in November.
Trump 50% (+11)
Trump 51% (+10)
Trump 49% (+8)
Trump 49% (+8)
Trump 50% (+7)
Trump 49% (+7)
Biden 42%@QuinnipiacPoll 2/12-18https://t.co/YezsOptZpg
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 20, 2020
The poll queried registered voters in three swing states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — with Wisconsin being the most important. Without Wisconsin, Democrats can’t sail to victory over Trump in the Electoral College, and with Wisconsin, Trump is less vulnerable if he loses other battleground states.
Trump trounces every serious Democratic contender in head-to-head matchups in Wisconsin by seven points or more, beating former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by seven, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg by eight, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) by 10 and 11 points, respectively.
Trump fares less favorably against the field in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, but is either even or within the margin of error against most Democratic candidates — hardly the position that Democrats want to be in before Trump hits the campaign trail in earnest. Trump is most vulnerable to Biden and Bloomberg in Pennsylvania and Sanders in Michigan — but not so vulnerable that the gap between candidates is impossible to overcome.
These results are all assuming, of course, that Quinnipiac oversampled Democrats — something it is notorious for doing. A right-leaning poll, like Rassmussen, might show Trump on the winning end of these same contests.
The poll also means that Trump is likely overperforming expectations in more Trump-friendly swing states like Minnesota, Florida, and Maine — and it may signal that Trump’s message of a Democratic party held hostage by the far-left and hell bent on nominating a socialist is working its magic with swing voters.
Trump also seems to be reaping the benefits of a booming economy, particularly among working class, Rust Belt voters.
Looking at how voters rate their own personal financial situations compared to 2016, the last presidential election, more than half in each state say they are better off:
- Wisconsin: 62% say better off, 20% say worse off, 16% volunteer the same;
- Pennsylvania: 57% say better off, 20% say worse off, 21% volunteer the same;
- Michigan: 55% say better off, 21% say worse off, 22% volunteer the same.
Asked to rate their state’s economy, Wisconsin voters are the most positive:
The Economist, Wednesday, noted that, under Trump, the working class has experienced a “wage boom” that correlates with Trump’s aggressive economic policies, and some voters appear to be making that connection.
The Quinnipiac poll is just the first of many swing and battleground state polls that will be taken and released across the 2020 presidential campaign, but the fact that Trump is leading so early, before really taking his re-election campaign on the road, and while Democrats are dominating the airwaves, has a lot of left-leaning commentators and activists worried.
“Frightful, Dems. Wake up!” noted clearly panicked, anti-Trump Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin.
“Holy crap!” added another. “This should scare the hell out of you.”
Most also noted that Sanders, who leads the pack, may be part of why swing state voters are leaning against voting Democrat.
“My theory on this is Bernie pulling away from the field solidifies the narrative that Trump is pushing that the left is off the rails and ‘gone radical socialist,'” one analyst suggested. “I think it tightens if WI people sees a different narrative rise.”
If Bernie Sanders is crowned the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, of course, there will be no competing narrative.