President Trump’s hand-picked candidate to succeed the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is facing growing trouble in the upcoming Republican primary, according to new polling and Republican strategists.
Darline Graham entered the U.S. Senate race on July 20 following Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement, with the president encouraging Lindsey Graham’s sister to “RUN, DARLINE, RUN!” South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed her to serve out the rest of her brother’s term earlier this month.
“I’m in,” Nordone told Fox News, acknowledging “a tremendous amount of pressure” around the decision. “I have been praying a lot, talking to my family, but with the love of my family, with the support of his staff, I know I’m a hard worker… I worked for almost 30 years for the people of this state, I feel like I can do it,” she said.
Her optimism, however, is running up against new polling and growing skepticism that enough South Carolina Republicans are comfortable with Graham’s experience and policy credentials to send her to the U.S. Senate for a full six-year term.
“This is a woman who no one heard of at all before, and I think that that hurts her in a certain way,” Republican political consultant Ryan Girdusky said in an interview with The Daily Wire. “She’s a largely unknown entity. I mean, no one really knows her except the fact that she’s Lindsey Graham’s sister.”
In a new campaign ad, Graham attempted to dispel those concerns, touting her pro-life beliefs, backing the SAVE America Act, and calling for a ban on biological men competing in women’s sports.
“I am a conservative Republican,” she said, touting Trump’s endorsement. “I approve this message, and I’m ready to serve.”
New Emerson College polling released Thursday shows Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) leading the crowded Republican field with 22% support. Darline Graham Nordone trails at 19%, followed by Rep. Russell Fry (R-SC) at 12% and former GovernorMark Sanford at 11%. Nine candidates have been certified for the August 11 primary, while roughly 25% of voters remain undecided, according to the survey. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to an August 25 runoff.
The poll also suggests that President Trump’s political clout may not be enough to carry Graham over the finish line. A majority of voters — 53% — said Trump’s endorsement would have no impact on their vote, while 29% said it made them more likely to support Graham. Another 18% said the endorsement made them less likely to back her candidacy.
“You’re only going to have hyper-engaged people showing up. That doesn’t always speak well for the president’s base, which can be very high level, high levels of low propensity [voters] in the mix,” Girdusky said. “If Darline Graham is counting on solely the president’s supporters to carry across the finish line, it’s a very tough, tough road.”
Rep. Ralph Norman, who endorsed Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary, has a long track record in South Carolina politics. He was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2017 and served as a member of the South Carolina House of Representatives from 2005 to 2007 and again from 2009 to 2017.
“There’s nothing enormously special about him. But he, you know what you’re going to get. He is a solid conservative voter,” Girdusky said.
Norman has lined up endorsements from conservative Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT), along with several Upstate sheriffs, the Washington Post reported. Fry has won the support of 40 Republican state legislators.
Darline Graham earned a bachelor’s degree in sociology from the College of Charleston and a master’s degree in rehabilitation counseling from South Carolina State University. She later worked as a vocational rehabilitation counselor and served as head of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind. If elected, she would be the first woman from South Carolina to be elected to the upper chamber.
Her brother, Lindsey, unexpectedly died earlier this month at his Capitol Hill home in what the medical examiner’s office believes was an aortic dissection. Before collapsing, Graham reportedly told a staffer he was experiencing chest pain. Graham had easily won his Republican primary in June before his sudden death upended the race.
“I think that the president was really in a state of grief. He loved Lindsey Graham,” Girdusky said. “And he picked her, you know, very, very, very quickly.”
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Republican going into November.
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