Trump Holds Six-Point Lead Over Biden In Wisconsin, Poll Finds
CHESAPEAKE, VIRGINIA - JUNE 28: Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to a rally at Greenbrier Farms on June 28, 2024 in Chesapeake, Virginia.
(Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding six-point lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in Wisconsin, a critical swing state, a recent poll following the first 2024 presidential debate found.

The poll, conducted by AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, found 44% of likely Wisconsin voters plan to vote for Trump in November, while 38% said they plan to vote for Biden. Just 9% said that they will be voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, while another 5% were undecided and 4% say they would vote for another candidate.

Trump maintains a 5-point lead against Biden when likely voters were asked who they would support in a head-to-head competition that excluded the other candidates, with Trump receiving support from 50% of likely voters compared to the 45% who would support Biden.

Among those who watched the recent debate between the two candidates, 56% said that Trump won, while 13% said that Biden won. Another 23% said that neither candidate won the debate.

Republicans are more united behind Trump than Democrats are behind Biden according to the poll, with 93% of Wisconsin Republicans supporting the former president, while just 86% of Democrats say that they support Biden. The gap in enthusiasm could have serious implications for voter turnout rates in the two parties.

While the poll found that Trump holds a significant lead over Biden, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) held the lead in her race against Republican challenger Eric Hovde, receiving 50% and 45% support of likely voters, respectively.

Wisconsin will be one of the crucial swing states in the upcoming November election, with its 10 electoral votes likely to play an important role in deciding the winner of the contest. Biden won the state against Trump by only about 20,000 votes in 2020, which was about 0.7% of those who voted in the state.

The poll is not the only public opinion survey after the first presidential debate that could spell trouble for Biden. One Suffolk University survey taken after the debate found that over 40% of Democrats believed that Biden should be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee as he faces concerns about his health and viability.

Another post-debate poll found that 72% of voters believe that Biden is not fit to serve as the president.

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