All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the line Tuesday. Republicans are clinging to a 218-214 majority that virtually all pollsters and forecasters expect to lose. Still, the margin and the makeup of that swing will play a key role in the final two years of the Trump presidency. Here are the 12 most important — and interesting — House races to keep an eye on Tuesday.
Texas Redistricting
After President Trump made historic gains with Latino voters and won Texas by big margins, state Republicans moved to redraw congressional districts to strengthen the party’s advantage in the U.S. House. But as polls suggest Hispanic support for Republicans has softened since 2024, some GOP officials fear the redistricting effort could backfire, undermining the party’s chances of picking up seats.
The shift reflects growing frustration among Hispanic voters over the cost of living, including high prices for groceries, gas, and housing, as well as the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that just 24% of Hispanic voters approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 38% at the beginning of his second term. Most polling has found Democrats regaining significant ground with Latino voters, though the Hispanic community is politically diverse and not a monolithic group. But Texas is emerging as a prime Democratic target to win these voters back.
In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning singer, leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in most polls. The district stretches across South Texas, running from western Hidalgo County to eastern Guadalupe County. Despite its shifting political landscape, the district moved sharply toward Republicans in recent elections: President Trump carried it by 18 points in 2024, compared with a three-point margin in 2020, while De La Cruz won re-election by 14 points, according to Cook Political Report.
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In Texas’ 35th Congressional District, Republican Carlos De La Cruz leads Democrat Johnny Garcia, 48% to 47%, in an October poll. Carlos De La Cruz is the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Redrawn in 2025, the district now encompasses the eastern and southern sides of San Antonio. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
In Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, Republican Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun YouTuber known online as “The AK Guy,” holds an advantage against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Herrera built a following of more than 4 million YouTube subscribers by reviewing firearms, testing weapons, and producing provocative gun-related content. He also runs a firearms manufacturing business and has turned his online popularity into a political operation, making him a strong contender in a sprawling district stretching from the San Antonio area west toward El Paso.
Herrera first challenged Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in 2024, nearly knocking off the incumbent in a primary runoff after attacking him for supporting a bipartisan gun safety bill following the Uvalde school shooting. Herrera ultimately lost that contest by just over 400 votes. He got another shot after Gonzales abandoned his re-election campaign amid a scandal involving an admitted affair with a congressional aide who later died by suicide.
But Herrera’s online persona has also drawn scrutiny. Some of his past social media content has included Holocaust jokes and Nazi imagery. Herrera has defended much of the material as dark humor. Trump won the district in 2024, and Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Republican.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State features three closely watched contests, with recent polling showing Democratic challengers narrowly ahead or tied.
In PA-08, the state’s northeast corner, Democrat Paige Cognetti leads Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan, 51% to 46%, according to a New York Times poll of likely voters. The freshman Republican has faced scrutiny over his stock trades and personal wealth.
In PA-10, Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican incumbent Scott Perry are tied at 48% apiece, according to the NYT survey. The contest centers on a competitive central Pennsylvania district where Perry works to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments.
In PA-01, Democrat Bob Harvie leads Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick, 48% to 46%, according to the polling. Fitzpatrick is one of the most prominent Republican moderates in Congress, with a profile that extends well beyond his suburban Philadelphia district. Before entering politics, he spent 15 years as an FBI special agent and federal prosecutor, working on counterterrorism, counterintelligence, and public corruption investigations. He later built a reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker, becoming co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.
Fitzpatrick has repeatedly broken with the GOP on major cultural issues, including supporting gun control legislation and enshrining legal protections for gay marriage. He also voted against Trump’s massive tax cut and spending bill, which included unprecedented funding for immigration enforcement. But his bipartisan appeal has helped him maintain support in a district that has increasingly favored Democrats at the presidential level — but it has also made him a frequent target of conservatives who view him as insufficiently loyal to Trump’s agenda.
The Cook Political Report ranks PA-08 as a toss-up, PA-10 as Lean Democrat, and PA-01 as Lean Republican.
New York and New Jersey
In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Democrat Cait Conley leads Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, 48% to 46%, in an Emerson College poll conducted in September. The two-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error in a race Republicans need to hold to keep the majority.
Lawler has become one of the most recognizable Republicans representing a Democratic-leaning district. A former New York state assemblyman and executive director of the state Republican Party, he rose to national prominence in 2022 when he defeated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in one of the cycle’s biggest upsets.
Lawler has also made the state and local tax deduction — known as SALT — a central issue for his heavily taxed suburban district. He’s championed efforts to expand the deduction cap, a major priority for his voters. He’s also cultivated a reputation as a politically savvy moderate who is willing to buck elements of the GOP’s MAGA wing.
In New Jersey’s 7th District, Democrat Rebecca Bennett leads Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. in available polling. Kean has struggled to regain footing after he infamously vanished for four months amid an undisclosed depression diagnosis.
Cook ranks NY-17 as a toss-up and NJ-07 as Lean Democrat.
California
In California’s 22nd District, Democrat Randy Villegas is locked in a toss-up race with Republican incumbent David Valadao. There’s no public polling available, but early voting suggests Democrats are off to a head start. Valadao has distanced himself from the president, including voting to impeach him at the end of his first term. The district has historically leaned Republican, but its electorate includes a substantial Latino population in the Central Valley, where frustration with the Trump administration’s economic record and immigration enforcement could create an opening for Democrats.
Ohio
In Ohio’s 7th Congressional District, which spans Cleveland’s southern suburbs and rural areas of north-central Ohio, Democrat Brian Poindexter is challenging Republican incumbent Max Miller. The district has a Republican-leaning presidential voting history, but Miller is struggling to pull ahead amid a bitter and increasingly public personal and political saga.
Miller, a former Trump White House aide who entered Congress in 2022, was once considered a safe bet for re-election. But his campaign has been engulfed by allegations from his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, who has accused the congressman of physical abuse and threatening behavior during their marriage and divorce.
Sen. Moreno’s daughter has accused the congressman of holding a gun to her head, throwing hot water at her, and fracturing their daughter’s collarbone, according to The New York Times. Miller has denied the allegations, alleging his ex-wife has mental health problems amid a heated child custody battle. Sen. Moreno was the first to call on Miller to quit Congress, adding, “He needs serious help.” One reporter pointed to a statement from Miller in which he’d said Moreno was only attacking him to “hide from” his “own circus,” and asked what that might be referencing.
“The ramblings of a madman,” Moreno said, adding, “I don’t even know what that means.”
Miller is now facing an ethics investigation as well as a costly re-election fight. The allegations have helped turn what was expected to be a safe Republican seat into a competitive contest, according to Cook Political Report.
Maine
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of rural northern and central Maine, including Bangor and surrounding communities, is an open-seat contest between Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage following Rep. Jared Golden’s decision not to seek re-election. Trump carried the district in 2024, making it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Recent polling suggests a close contest, though Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican.
Golden’s departure is a major reason the race is so competitive. A Marine veteran and former state legislator, Golden won the seat in 2018 by defeating Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin in a district Trump carried. He then built a reputation as one of the most independent-minded Democrats in the House, repeatedly breaking with his party on high-profile votes. Golden opposed gun control legislation, voted against President Biden’s sweeping Build Back Better spending package, and even split his vote on impeaching Trump.
More recently, he was one of eight House Democrats to join Republicans in voting for a resolution condemning socialism. In April, he cast the key vote blocking a measure seeking to restrict Trump’s Iran war powers, the only Democrat to do so in a move that angered his party’s leftist flank. His exit leaves Democrats vulnerable.
Washington State
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, which stretches across southwestern Washington along the Oregon border, is a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces a competitive re-election challenge from Republican John Braun in a district that has leaned Republican in recent elections.
Perez has cultivated a political identity distinct from the national Democratic Party, appealing to working-class voters and emphasizing her willingness to break with party leadership. That approach has helped her win in a Republican-leaning district. In 2024, she held the seat by roughly 15,000 votes.
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