Most Americans are under orders to “shelter in place” amid concerns about the quickly spreading coronavirus, but the four states set to hold Democratic primaries Tuesday say they’ll be accepting ballots and that voting will go on as planned — and that’s good news for former Vice President Joe Biden.
Battleground states Ohio, Arizona, and Florida will cast ballots on Tuesday, as will reliably Democratic Illinois and all four are expected to go to Biden over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Biden already leads Sanders 860-706 in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, but could extend the lead by more than 300 delegates on Tuesday if he inks conclusive victories in all four states, putting him that much closer to the number 1,991 — the majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination ahead of the Democratic National Convention in July.
An NBC News/Marist poll put Biden well out of reach of Sanders in Ohio and Arizona, both states crucial for Democrats if the intend to win the White House in 2020.
“In Ohio, Biden garners 58% of support among likely Democratic primary voters, compared with 35% for Sanders, I-Vt,” NBC News reported Monday. “Biden has a smaller but still significant lead over Sanders in Arizona. He gets 53% of support among likely voters in Tuesday’s contest, while Sanders comes in at 36%. Ohio awards 136 pledged delegates. Arizona allocates 67.”
Ohio, like Michigan last week, is a key “battleground state” where more “moderate” Democrats handed the election to Donald Trump back in 2016. While both Sanders and Biden lead Trump by small margins according to the NBC News poll, Biden does almost twice as well as Sanders.
Arizona was not considered a “battleground” state in 2016, but Democrats have focused efforts on the state, which they believe could become solidly blue in 2020. The state, NBC says, “plays host to one of this year’s most important Senate races, as Democrats hope to unseat Republican Sen. Martha McSally in their quest to win a majority in the chamber. Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, leads the incumbent by a 48% to 45% margin, according to the NBC/Marist poll.”
In Florida, Biden is dominating Sanders, but both fall victim to Trump, who is well ahead of both Democrats in tracking polls.
In Illinois, where Democrats will face a head-to-head matchup (no Republicans regularly compete for the state’s electoral votes, even in a general election), Biden leads Sanders by a whopping 30 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. The former Veep leads the Vermont socialist in every Congressional distict in the state, in some cases by a 60-point margin.
Of the four states expected to vote tomorrow, only Ohio is considering extending in-person voting. “Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced Monday afternoon that he is requesting a delay to in-person voting from Tuesday until June 2,” according to USA Today, though the request may have come too little too late for Ohio’s Democratic party and for the state’s voter apparatus. In the three other states, officials are increasing sanitary measures for in-person voters.
In a joint statement, vote officials from all four states stressed the importance of voting even in a time of crisis.
“Americans have participated in elections during challenging times in the past, and based on the best information we have from public health officials, we are confident that voters in our states can safely and securely cast their ballots in this election, and that otherwise healthy poll workers can and should carry out their patriotic duties on Tuesday,” the four states noted.