The Allied Attack On The Houthis: A Telegraphed Punch To Avoid War With Iran

Last night, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), as well as several other foreign countries that are part of an American alliance, struck at Houthi targets in Yemen. The Houthis are a ragtag group of terrorists who have taken over a large swath of Yemen after a massive civil war between the Houthis and the Saudis over control of the country.

The Iranians have been funding the Houthis for years — and years and years. The reason all of this is happening right now is because the Houthis decided they were going to try to act as an Iranian proxy arm and generate support for Iran by attacking Israel and then shipping in the Red Sea.

Now, shooting off a few rockets or missiles at Israel to get downed by American ships or by the Saudis didn’t have much of an impact on world opinion or on the world at large. But attacking ships in the Red Sea absolutely does. CENTCOM says the Houthis have carried out at least 27 attacks on commercial ships since mid-November. Between December 16 and January 4, according to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Navy said they had shot down 61 missiles and drones. 

But the biggest problem with the hubbub in the Red Sea and in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is that a huge percentage of the world’s oil supplies travel through the strait, as well as a huge percentage of shipping.

According to CNBC, shipping is down dramatically, and rates for freight traveling have skyrocketed.

This group of pirates, in an attempt to generate support for Iran among the Arab street in the Middle East, has basically created massive costs for American and Western consumers, and they’ve shut down large swaths of world trade. Now, there is a 90% reduction year-over-year in traffic through the Red Sea from the prior year.

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The allied attack was a telegraphed punch, meaning this entire exercise was designed to deter the Houthis, not designed to actually kill or destabilize them. The reason for telegraphing the attack was to allow Iranians to get their military forces out of the way so as not to provoke — and provoke some sort of escalation with Iran more directly — because Iran has tons of forces on the ground helping the Houthis in Yemen. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, “The U.S.-led coalition launched more than a dozen strikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen two days after the Yemeni rebel forces defied an ultimatum to halt its attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea with a barrage of missiles and drones.”

Those strikes were conducted by the United States and British forces. They were supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands. The Saudis said they were concerned about the escalation. But in reality, Bahrain works very closely with the Saudis. Bahrain would not have joined this coalition or allowed its airspace to be used for an attack like this without the go-ahead from the Saudis.

The Houthis say they’re not going to be deterred. The way this works in the Middle East is that, basically, terrorist groups provoke a response from an overwhelming power. They get their a**es absolutely kicked, then claim that, just because they survived, they won.

That’s what’s currently going on in the Gaza Strip. Hamas provokes a gigantic Israeli military response, the largest Israeli military response to any attack since 1973. And they get their a**es absolutely handed to them, most of their fighters killed, and most of their leadership killed. Then, if they are breathing at the end of it, they claim victory.

The Houthis are playing the same game. A Houthi official told the Wall Street Journal, “This is a brutal aggression.”

Brutal aggression? Honest to God, if America and its allies want to commit “brutal aggression” against the Houthis, this guy would not be alive to talk about it.

The question is whether this is going to deter further action from the Houthis. The answer is probably not, when a telegraph punches like this. It is very unlikely that is going to convince the Houthis to stop what they are doing.

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Iran’s other proxies, Hezbollah, the Houthis, do these sort of low-level attacks against Israel and its allies in the region in an attempt to establish credibility with the Arab street or the Muslim street.

But they don’t want to provoke a general war. If Iran provoked a regional war, it would be the worst thing they ever did. Iran doesn’t want us to get into a war with them.

The only question is whether the actions of Joe Biden, by effectively hitting empty buildings, is going to be enough to back the Houthis off or whether the United States and its allies are going to have to escalate their actions far enough by threatening to destroy the Houthis in order to back them down.