Karl Rove, finally figuring out what Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief Ben Shapiro wrote three months ago and reiterated last week, believes Donald Trump can still be blocked from winning the GOP presidential nomination if the field narrows quickly to one opponent for Trump. In an op-ed published in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, Rove pointed out, “Donald Trump scored a very impressive win in Nevada, taking 45.9% and 14 of the state’s 30 delegates to the GOP convention. But the Republican nomination is far from settled. After four contests, only 133 of the convention’s 2,472 delegates have been selected.”
Rove continued, “Is he consolidating Republicans? Perhaps, but a single caucus victory does not necessarily a consolidation make.” Rove segued into a reasoned explanation of his thinking, positing:
In the eight February polls of the states that vote between March 1 and March 8, Mr. Trump takes an average of 32.3%. Sen. Ted Cruz and Mr. Rubio take 21% and 19.9% respectively, with the remaining 26.8% split among other candidates and undecideds. Mr. Trump is supported by better than three of every 10 Republicans, but some 65% aren’t in his camp. The 963 delegates—39% of the convention’s total—to be selected in 24 contests between March 1 and March 12 will all be awarded proportionally. This means he could win the headlines but capture a minority of the delegates—unless he unites the GOP.
Rove stated, “Assume Messrs. Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Carson receive the same percentage of voters in the early March contests that they did in South Carolina, and Mr. Rubio inherits Bush’s voters. In that case, Mr. Trump would emerge with 489 (or 44%) of the delegates. Mr. Rubio would have 330 and Mr. Cruz 197, with 24 delegates scattered elsewhere going into the winner-take-all primaries on the Ides of March. And that assumes Mr. Trump wins everywhere.”
Rove admitted, “Donald Trump could well have a lock on the nomination after March 15 if a fragmented opposition gives him an absolute majority of delegates on that day.” He warned, “There is still time for the non-Trump GOP majority to coalesce around a single candidate, but not much. Things can remain somewhat divided on March 1 as long as the majority is largely unified on March 8 and fully behind a single candidate on the Ides of March. If not, the hopes of the party’s non-Trump majority will suffer the same fate as Caesar.”
Trump had his own words for Rove, tweeting, “Big defeat last night in Nevada for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. @KarlRove on @FoxNews is working hard to belittle my victory. Rove is sick! In all of television- the only one who said anything bad about last nights landslide victory– was dopey @KarlRove. He should be fired!”