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POLL: Trump Tied With Biden, Trouncing Warren In 2020 Battleground States

   DailyWire.com
US President Donald Trump gestures during the International Association of Chiefs of Police Annual Conference and Exposition at the McCormick Place Convention Center October 28, 2019, in Chicago, Illinois.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

A year out from the 2020 presidential election, a new poll from the New York Times finds President Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat with former vice president Joe Biden in most major battleground states but handily beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

The poll, described as “terrifying” by some Democratic strategists, shows Trump with a strong hold among “likely voters” in places like North Carolina and Michigan, but falling slightly behind Biden in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, though still within the poll’s margin of error.

That puts Trump in a statistical dead heat with Biden for most states except for North Carolina. Among registered voters, the results are nearly the same, though Biden fares slightly better in the Rust Belt.

That’s probably not surprising news for the Trump camp, which has been publicly attacking Warren — and not necessarily Biden — of late, perhaps hoping that Democrats perceive Warren as Trump’s top threat. Biden, for all his faults, has a comfortable presence in “blue” and battleground states with a high percentage of middle class and working class voters, and he shares Trump’s message of economic populism, which resonated heavily with that demographic in 2016.

Biden has long been thought to be the biggest challenge for Trump among the potential 2020 nominees — and “establishment” Democrats have been preparing Biden’s coronation for quite some time.

Of late, though, progressive Democrats and far-left social media dwellers have been creeping in on the prevailing wisdom that a more “moderate”candidate is the Democrats’ only chance at retaking the White House, and pushing Warren as the potential nominee. The claim is that Warren (or Sanders, for that matter) give voters a real choice between visions, and America is ready to move further towards socialism.

The New York Times poll, however, tosses gallons of cold water on that theory, and it’s sent progressives clamoring.

Warren (and Sanders, though he’s so unlikely to be the nominee, it’s almost not worth analyzing), loses narrowly to Trump among registered voters in all battlground states except Arizona, where her lead falls within the polls margin of error. Among likely voters, Warren gets trounced by Trump almost across the board.

In states like Michigan and Florida, which both rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 by narrow margins, Warren falls behind her predecessor candidate; Trump takes Michigan from Warren by 6 points and Florida by 4.

The worst news for Warren, though, is how badly she’s polling among non-white voters, who are a core element of the Democrat coalition. Clinton took black voters by an 80% margin over Trump in 2016, but they’re less enthusiastic for Warren. She faces the same chasm among Hispanic voters, doing 10 points poorer than Clinton did in 2016.

Worse still, the poll seems to show that Trump is getting higher margins of minority and young voters — not that mintority and young voters are simply dropping out of the process. If Warren and Biden could argue that most young voters are as yet “undecided” and that they could still pick up larger percentages of those demographics down the line, the NYT polling news might not be so bad. But the indexes show Trump getting double-digit support from black voters and doing well among whites without college educations, who fall between ages 18 and 44.

Trump’s Achilles’ heel is college-educated white voters, many of whom, the NYT adds, either voted for a third party candidate or sat out the 2016 election. They seem to have flocked to Biden, making him the preferred candidate, it seems of so-called “Never Trumpers.”

The key problem for Warren can be found in the poll’s cross-tabs: a shocking 100% of Warren’s backers, who spoke to the NYT for this poll, believe she may too far to the left to win.

Leftists are taking solace in the idea that the cross-tabs show a “weird” breakdown in how the NYT conducted its poll.

Others are simply rewriting the poll to more accurately reflect their desires.

It might be more beneficial to analysts to handle reality as it comes: that Trump, whom they believe to be an unpopular president, may, in fact, still be more popular than the three front-runners in the Democratic field.

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