Democrat Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola inched closer to victory Friday, widening her lead in the latest ballot drop in a wild-card race defined by shady tactics and scandal.
With 88% of the vote reported, Peltola’s lead has grown to 5,800 votes over incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan as Democrats look to expand their largest Senate majority in years. Friday’s vote drop nets Peltola more than a thousand additional votes, as the Democrat led Sullivan by just 4,250 with 84% of the vote counted one week after Election Day.
Peltola’s lead now exceeds the number of votes Dan J. Sullivan received, a so-called independent candidate reportedly recruited by Democrat operatives to confuse voters. The second Sullivan, whom Republicans call “Decoy Dan,” is pulling 4,199 votes, or 1.7% of the vote. Meanwhile, another self-identified Republican candidate, Gerald Heikes, is pulling more than 2% of the vote.
Heikes was also reportedly recruited by an unidentified Midwestern political operative to launch a campaign, and President Donald Trump accused him of being backed by Democrats, The Daily Wire reported. With the combined votes of the two so-called GOP candidates, Sullivan would lead Peltola in a race that could come down to a ranked-choice-voting photo finish.
A Peltola victory means Democrats would head to Washington with an eye-popping 56-44 Senate majority after pulling off historic upsets in what were once deep-red territories, including South Carolina, Kansas, and Texas. Earlier this week, media outlets projected Democrats would narrowly win the Mississippi Senate race, dealing a stunning blow to the GOP’s grip on the Deep South.
Back in Alaska, Peltola’s campaign has all but declared victory. “As more ballots get counted, it’s clear that Mary’s victory is all but guaranteed and Alaskans have resoundingly rejected Dan Sullivan’s DC self-dealing,” the campaign said in a statement Thursday.
On November 18, a final official count will be issued, including mail-in ballots received from Alaskans living abroad. If no candidate has received over 50% of the vote by then, ranked-choice tabulation will begin. Currently, Peltola has about 49.2% of the vote, and Sullivan has 47%. Despite criticism of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, voters once again rejected an effort to eliminate it.
“Mary ‘Dirty Trick’ Peltola has a 5,800-vote lead over Real Dan Sullivan,” Byron York, chief political correspondent for the Washington Examiner, said. “The two candidates recruited to damage Sullivan have a combined 9,689 votes. More votes will be released tonight, with the possibility that Peltola, who currently has 49.2% of the vote, will cross the 50% mark and win outright.”
Still, Sullivan released a November 4 memo arguing that both the outstanding ballots left to be counted and the ranked-choice system would lead to victory.
Last month, the Justice Department asked a federal court to preserve the possibility of delaying election certification if the presence of a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot confused voters enough to cost Sullivan the election. Such a delay, the administration argued, would allow time to investigate whether the nearly identical candidate names misled voters. A federal court dismissed the lawsuit. The Trump administration has appealed the decision.
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