Following the RNC’s decision to suspend future debate partnerships with NBC – of which Telemundo is a subsidiary – the usual suspects in the media are feigning good faith concern for the Republican Party’s political fortunes with Hispanic voters.
The Huffington Post references the RNC’s post-2012 “autopsy” report, in which the party’s growing electoral challenges at the national level are framed as flowing from insufficient support from the growing Hispanic cohort of voters. The suspension of Telemundo-hosted debate is said to be a rejection of the RNC’s self-prescribed remedy of Hispanic outreach. The article provides counterfeit guidance to Republicans, “Reinstating the Telemundo debate would be a wise move for a party looking to make inroads with Latino voters, a crucial and growing demographic that swung heavily towards Barack Obama in 2012.”
The same outlet’s Senior Politics Editor expressed Twitter-rage that the GOP candidates were asserting their control over future debates at the expense of left-wing media.
The Washington Post ran an op-ed stating that the RNC’s withdrawal from Telemundo amounts to a declaration that the party is uninterested “in communicating with Latino voters”.
The author pretends to offer good faith advice to both Democrats and Republicans, as if he wants what’s best for both parties.
The New York Times declares the suspension, “particularly problematic for the national committee, which has been struggling to improve the party’s relations with Hispanics voters.” In a related article, the same author characterizes the suspended Telemundo-hosted debate as a lost opportunity to “win over Hispanic voters” for Jeb Bush, given his Spanish fluency and Mexican-American wife.
The author professes concern that the RNC is crippling its “Hispanic outreach” with the decision.
Underpinning this left-wing media consensus is the false premise that the eventual Republican nominee will need a plurality of votes from Hispanic Americans in order to secure the White House. Using interactive demographic map tools provided by RealClearPolitics and FWD.us, this doesn’t seem to be the case.
In 2012, President Barack Obama won reelection with 332 electoral votes (270 is the winning threshold) to Mitt Romney’s 206. RCP’s data indicates that Romney won 60.2% of non-Hispanic white voters. Bump that up to 63.5% in 2016, with voting patterns from the other demographic groups being equal, and there will be a Republican president in 2017 having won 270 electoral votes. FWD.us’s data indicates that Romney won 59% of white voters. Bump that up to 64% in 2016, and there will be a Republican president in 2017 with 311 electoral votes.
The path to victory via changes in Hispanic/Latino voting is different. Voting patterns from other demographic groups remaining equal, RCP’s data indicates that the 2016 Republican nominee will need the support of 62.3% of Hispanic voters to win the presidency with 275 electoral votes. RCP’s data indicates that Romney won 27.6% of Hispanic voters. Using FWD.us’s data, with voting patterns for other demographic groups remaining equal, the 2016 Republican nominee will need the support of 71% of Latino voters to win the presidency with 275 electoral votes. FWD.us’s data indicates that Romney won 27% of Latino voters. Even approaching such change of support for the GOP among Hispanics/Latinos – a 34.7% increase using RCP’s data and a 44% increase using FWD.us’s data – is a tall order.
Despite the eventual 2016 GOP nominee not needing to heed the conventional wisdom that the path to Republican victory is through the heart of Hispanic/Latino voters, Jeb Bush is upset with the RNC’s decision to suspend its partnership with Telemundo and has called for its restoration.