More than three million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections. With less than a month to go, MAGA Inc. and allied political groups are zeroing in on the campaigns most critical to preserving Republican control of Congress, weighing where to deploy their remaining cash and where to send the GOP’s biggest surrogate: President Donald Trump.
With a 53-47 majority, Republicans can afford to lose no more than three seats before surrendering control of the Senate. The GOP’s 218-214 House margin is just as tight, with dozens of competitive races across the country threatening the party’s congressional power. As outside spending ramps up and Trump prepares to hit the campaign trail, the coming weeks will reveal which candidates Republicans view as essential to keeping their majorities. Here are the latest polls, storylines, and campaign trail notables you need to know about.
Candidate Moves
Talarico Denies Mental Health Crisis — James Talarico’s Senate campaign is officially denying rumors that his two-week absence from the public eye was the result of a mental health crisis.
“This is a lie designed to promote a pathetic conspiracy theory. Last week James Talarico was home in Austin, Texas, recovering from the flu,” campaign spokesman JT Ennis said in a statement Sunday afternoon.
Later on Sunday, the Lindner Center of Hope — where it was claimed that Talarico sought treatment — also released a statement denying that he’d ever been a patient there.
“Representative James Talarico has never received treatment from Lindner Center of Hope,” the statement read. Ennis and the mental health facility were both responding to a social media post on Sunday by conservative media personality Nick Sortor and self-described “right-wing provocateur” Rhein Amacher, which included an audio recording of a woman who is purportedly an employee at the Lindner Center of Hope, a mental health facility in Mason, Ohio.
Talarico changed his story Sunday, insisting he saw his primary care physician after previously claiming he went to urgent care and was diagnosed with the flu. The shifting account has fueled a social media firestorm as his campaign scrambles to explain his prolonged absence from the trail and contain a controversy threatening to derail his momentum in one of the cycle’s marquee Senate races.
MAGA Inc. Money Moves —
MAGA Inc. is preparing to narrow its battlefield in the final weeks before Election Day. The Trump-aligned super PAC, which still has several hundred million dollars in reserve, is planning a coordinated spending push with other leading GOP super PACs, according to Politico. The strategy involves abandoning less competitive House races, directing more cash toward vulnerable Republican candidates and prioritizing key Senate contests in a bid to save the party’s Senate majority.
Trump’s political operation reportedly sees Ohio, Alaska and Iowa as the three battlegrounds critical to keeping control of the upper chamber. On the House side, MAGA Inc. and a leading GOP super PAC are expected to pull funding from Michigan’s 8th Congressional District by midweek, effectively conceding ground to Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet against Republican challenger Tom Smith. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as “Likely Democrat.”
Trump’s and Vice President JD Vance’s campaign blitz continues this week. Trump held a rally Monday in Youngstown, Ohio. On Tuesday, he’s set to be in Wasilla, Alaska, before traveling to Bullhead City, Arizona, and Kalispell, Montana, on Wednesday. He will also be in battleground Georgia on Friday. Vance will campaign Tuesday in Tyler, Texas, Wednesday in Atlanta, Georgia, and Thursday in Monroe, Michigan.
Musk’s Midterm Millions – A new report is revealing the staggering sums Elon Musk is pouring into the fight to save the GOP’s congressional majorities. The tech billionaire has funneled more than $276 million into Republican groups and his own super PAC since July, making him the biggest GOP donor of the cycle and one of the largest political donors in American history, according to The New York Times.
With Republicans fighting to preserve their Senate majority, Musk directed $158 million this summer to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC connected to Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
Musk has also bankrolled a massive Republican turnout operation through America PAC, the super PAC he founded in 2024 to help elect President Trump. He pumped more than $76 million into the group this summer to build a widespread canvassing operation to turn out conservative voters who traditionally skip midterm elections.
One ad from Musk’s group uses voters’ first names to personalize an urgent warning about the threat of socialism. “They know if voters like you sit this election out, they’re one step closer to a radical, socialist takeover of America,” the ad states. “Christopher — don’t lose your chance to vote.”
The Latest Polls
With three weeks to go, Democrats maintain a commanding advantage on the national congressional ballot, while Republicans are scrambling to defend an increasingly broad map of competitive Senate races.
The latest RealClearPolitics data show Democrats leading Republicans by eight points, 50% to 42%. The national environment is putting Republican-held seats in states such as Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia under pressure.
GOP groups continue to pull resources out of North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former RNC chairman Michael Whatley by nine points in the polling average, 49.9% to 40.9%.
Instead, some of that money is flowing into Kansas to shore up Sen. Roger Marshall, whose race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton has tightened into a dead heat. The latest RCP average puts both candidates at 45%, leaving Marshall fighting for his political life in a race that has turned sharply against Republicans in the campaign’s final stretch. Trump on Monday promised to campaign for the endangered Republican “very soon.”
Georgia, meanwhile, looks increasingly difficult for Republicans to salvage. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins by 8.1 points in the RCP average, 51.3% to 43.2%. The Senate contest remains a significant challenge for Republicans even as billionaire Rick Jackson builds a strong position against former Atlanta Democratic Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the gubernatorial race.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico maintains a three-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. A new poll released last Thursday showed the marquee Senate race tied as questions swirl over James Talarico’s mysterious 13-day absence that’s sparked a firestorm online.
Ohio remains another opportunity for Democrats. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 3.1 points in the RCP average, 47.3% to 44.2%. But the race has edged toward Republicans: Brown held a nearly five-point advantage in September, suggesting Husted is gradually closing the gap.
Maine remains a nail-biter. Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins by just one point in the RCP average, 48.3% to 47.3%. Recent polls have generally favored Jackson, though Collins has a history of outperforming polling quite substantially. Over the weekend, Jackson campaigned alongside Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders amid struggles to generate the same level of enthusiasm that disgraced candidate Graham Platner once inspired.
Iowa is similarly competitive, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson locked in a statistical tie. The last two public polls put Hinson ahead by two points, while political journalist Mark Halperin said Monday that Republicans are growing increasingly optimistic about their chances in the race.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 3.1 points in the RCP average, 48.1% to 45%. Three recent polls, however, showed El-Sayed’s advantage narrowing to just one or two points, as national Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, work to shore up support among key constituencies, including black and Jewish voters.
And in Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 1.4 points in the RCP average, 48.8% to 47.4%. The race remains a toss-up in a state that can be difficult to poll accurately. Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned there. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty, making it unlikely that the outcome will be clear on Election Night.
One Story To Watch
With early voting underway, debates may be among the last opportunities to jolt a race before voters lock in and cast their ballots. A flurry of debates took place last week, including a fiery Michigan Senate showdown in which Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers clashed over the Iran war, the economy, and El-Sayed’s Muslim Brotherhood ties.
Rogers came out swinging, calling El-Sayed “the best con I’ve ever seen” and attacking him for refusing to issue a statement condemning Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attacks on their third anniversary.
“This is why you should get absolutely angry,” Rogers said during the debate, hosted by NBC affiliate WOOD. “He could not bring himself to even acknowledge the pain, the terrorism, the rape, the murders, cutting off of women’s breasts, putting children in ovens, and killing them in front of their families!”
El-Sayed insisted he had condemned the attacks but said he would not turn the issue into what he called “political theater.”
“So I’m so sorry, but like, I just, I’m not somebody who tries to make political theater out of other people’s pain,” El-Sayed said, drawing a sharp rebuke from Rogers.
“Your whole campaign is political theater,” Rogers shot back. “Including putting on a white jacket and calling yourself a doctor.”
Candidates in Iowa, Maine, Georgia, and South Carolina have also taken the debate stage, with Alaska’s Senate candidates set to have their turn later this week. Republican Ken Paxton of Texas and Democrat Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota have both declined calls to debate their opponents.
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