<p>Even though Democrats have obtained tens of millions to pass a mid-decade redistricting amendment in Virginia on April 21, a recent poll indicates that the race is closer than they might hope.</p>
<p>Registered voters support the effort 53-44%, and likely voters back the effort at a narrower 52-47%, according to a new Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/03/virginia-redistricting-poll-trump-spanberger/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzc1MTg4ODAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzc2NTcxMTk5LCJpYXQiOjE3NzUxODg4MDAsImp0aSI6ImJkNWRjMjI0LWFlZGEtNDZiNS05YzJlLWEyNTRjNGU4MmVhNCIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI2LzA0LzAzL3ZpcmdpbmlhLXJlZGlzdHJpY3RpbmctcG9sbC10cnVtcC1zcGFuYmVyZ2VyLyJ9.5Cp3nf5eFyjVD0-MekiUof7o2qRl776d86eZVkkbQws" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poll</a>.</p>
<p>Those in favor of the amendment have fundraised $38 million, including from large political groups, to change the commonwealth’s congressional map from 6-5 in favor of Democrats to 10-1 in favor of Democrats, according to <a href="https://wjla.com/news/local/story/virginia-voters-to-decide-redistricting-that-could-flip-4-gop-seats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WJLA</a> as of March 27. The maps could influence who controls the House for remainder of President Donald Trump&#8217;s term, as Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-member majority.</p>
<p>On the opposition side, &#8220;Virginians for Fair Maps&#8221; says it&#8217;s raised about $5 million, <a href="https://www.29news.com/2026/03/18/va-redistricting-referendum-heats-up-with-uneven-fundraising-early-voter-turnout/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">29News</a> reported on March 18.</p>
<p>Early voting started in the race on March 6, and it will end on April 18. The <a href="https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/electionadministration/electionlaw/4-21-2026-Special-Election-Explanation--Text.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ballot question itself</a> frames the proposal as a way to “restore fairness in the upcoming elections” while noting that it will be in place until after the normal redistricting is done following the 2030 census.</p>
<p>The Virginia Democrats&#8217; <a href="https://vademocrats.org/2026-redistricting-vote-yes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website</a> says that the measure is because &#8220;Trump and MAGA are trying to rig the midterms.”</p>
<p>The proposal mirrors the one passed in California in November, which redrew the state’s maps to create five more Democrat-favored seats. Proponents of the California and Virginia ballot measures argue that it is a counteraction to the redistricting done in Texas, which added five Republican-favored seats, as well as the redistricting in other red states.</p>
<p>In an interview with The Daily Wire last month, former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) said that there’s been a “groundswell of support” for the opposition effort.</p>
<p>“It’s not like all this California money cares about Virginians or cares about voices of rural Virginians in Congress,” he said at the time.</p>
<p>Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) told <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/not-done-deal-democrats-start-sweat-virginias-redistricting-referendum-rcna263726" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBC News</a> on March 21 that the amendment is “not a done deal by any means.”</p>
<p>“We have to effectively make the case that even though this seems unfair in Virginia, it’s totally fair for America, for those of us who believe that taking back the House is the most significant thing we can do to stop Donald Trump,” the Democrat told the outlet.</p>
<p>The proposal has won the backing of former President Barack Obama and Gov. Abigail Spanberger, whereas some Republicans have hit the campaign trail against the measure. The special election comes at a major point of transition in the commonwealth, as Spanberger, along with Lt. Gov. Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General Jay Jones, flipped the statewide leadership blue in the November in a heated off-year statewide election.</p>
<p>“THE VOTE WILL BE CLOSE!” Republican activist <a href="https://x.com/ScottPresler/status/2040066645180239885" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scott Presler</a> posted to X last week. “Hakeem Jeffries is spending tens of millions of dollars trying to buy 4 congressional seats in Virginia.”</p>
<p>“Shock the nation by voting NO &amp; show Washington, DC, outsiders that they CAN’T buy the Commonwealth,” he added.</p>

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