A fresh poll shows Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly leading Democrat James Talarico in the must-win Senate race, offering Republicans a much-needed boost in a contest that has increasingly given party leaders heartburn.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday shows Paxton with 47% support, narrowly ahead of Talarico at 46%. Another 5% of voters remain undecided, while 2% back another candidate.
The one-point difference falls within the poll’s three-point margin of error, making the contest effectively a dead heat. But it’s the first poll to show Paxton ahead since early June, according to RealClearPolitics, as Republicans worry that low GOP turnout and a Democratic-friendly political landscape could flip one of the reddest states in the nation — and with it, control of the U.S. Senate.
“Despite having a three-month head start and getting millions from out-of-state billionaires with deep ties to Jeffrey Epstein, James Talarico is already losing steam and falling behind,” RNC spokesman Zach Kraft told The Daily Wire. “It should come as no surprise that Texas wants a MAGA warrior like Ken Paxton over a gender-confused freak like Talarico.”
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said the Texas Senate race is sharply divided by age, with voters under 50 favoring Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while voters over 50 back Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%.
Digging deeper, Paxton holds his strongest advantage among white voters and men, while Talarico leads among most black and Hispanic voters. Talarico holds just a one-point advantage among women after facing backlash over his views on Christianity, “love” for transgender children, and disdain for the American flag.
Top issues for Texas voters include the economy (30%), immigration (19%), threats to democracy (14%), and healthcare (13%). Republican voters rank immigration as their top issue (32%), while Democrats (33%) and independents (31%) rate the economy as their top concern.
Those issues have not stopped either campaign from diving into hot-button cultural issues as both sides wage a fierce battle for Christian voters who will likely play a pivotal role in November. The Texas Tribune reported Thursday that Paxton’s and Talarico’s differing views of Christianity have emerged as a defining issue shaping the race in a state where nearly half of voters say faith is “very important” in their lives.
A pro-Paxton super PAC went viral after using artificial intelligence to remake Lyndon B. Johnson’s famous “Daisy” ad, depicting a young girl being prepared to undergo a sex-change operation as an AI-generated Talarico stands at the operating table.
“She dreams of growing up, falling in love, becoming a mother,” an AI narrator says. “The trans industry preys on confused children. Irreversible puberty blockers. Cross-sex hormones. Sex-change surgeries.”
Talarico, meanwhile, is seeking to make inroads with evangelical voters — the largest religious group in Texas — by touting his Baptist upbringing despite his support for abortion, calling God “nonbinary,” opposing the display of the Ten Commandments in public schools, and his affiliation to a progressive Presbyterian denomination.
A 30-second spot features his grandfather: “As a Baptist preacher in South Texas, he taught me to follow the two great commandments — love God, and love your neighbor,” Talarico says, suggesting the Gospel message includes reducing the cost of healthcare, housing, and groceries.
A recent Fox News poll found that 78% of white evangelical Christians in the Lone Star State plan to vote against Talarico, despite concerns that Paxton’s personal scandals and marriage struggles could alienate the key demographic.
“I truly believe that God just delivered me, not because I am a great person, because God is sovereign and he does what he wants to do,” Paxton said on Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s podcast, referring to the unsuccessful 2023 impeachment effort against him. “I don’t take credit for it; it’s really by the grace of God.”
The Cook Political Report ranks the race as Lean Republican.
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