<p>A recent poll of the California gubernatorial field backed by the California Democratic Party confirmed their own fears about the potential for a lockout in the top-two primary race.</p>
<p>The EVITARUS Research <a href="https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Voter-Index-Baseline-Survey-03.23.26.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">survey</a> of 2,000 likely voters from March 12-17 showed Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading the pack at 16% and 14%, respectively. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer are the top three leading Democrats tied at 10%.</p>
<p>Other candidates ranked significantly lower in the poll. Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, are polling at three percent.</p>
<p>“But this initial survey shows two Republicans in the lead with multiple Democrats trailing behind. These results confirm the possibility – albeit a low one – of Democrats being ‘locked out’ of the General Election,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said in a <a href="https://cadem.org/cadem-chair-rusty-hicks-releases-new-california-voter-index-poll-results/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Hicks then doubled down on his warning from earlier this month, in which he suggested that Democrats consolidate their list of candidates.</p>
<p>“Most importantly, it’s yet another clear reminder of an undeniable fact – all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win. I continue to call for them to so do,” he added. “Simply put, it’s the best way to ensure we elect a Democrat as our next Governor and that California continues its strong leadership at home and abroad.”</p>
<p>Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will be termed out in 2027, has yet to make an endorsement in the race. However, Swalwell has recently racked up some key endorsements, including from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). Other polls have indicated favorable numbers for Hilton and Bianco, including some showing them alternating in first or third place, with Swalwell sometimes coming in second.</p>
<p>Still, the race among the Democrats has been messy in its own right. Steyer has raised questions about Swalwell’s California residency, and Porter faces ongoing criticism about her temperament following a tense interview with CBS News California last year, as well as reports about the poor treatment of her staff.</p>
<p>The University of Southern California canceled its scheduled Tuesday debate with the six candidates over concerns that candidates of color were not included, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/peak-california-usc-backs-out-of-gov-debate-over-lack-of-diversity" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Daily Wire</a> reported. The candidates invited were Hilton, Bianco, Swalwell, Porter, Mahan, and Steyer.</p>
<p>There have also been calls for a consolidation of the Republican field if Democrats end up surging and locking out Republicans, which has happened in past statewide races in the deep blue state.</p>
<p>“Even though polls show two Republicans in the top two, there&#8217;s no way the Democrat machine will let it happen,” Hilton <a href="https://x.com/SteveHiltonx/status/2022363342812385360?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tweeted</a> in February. “The real risk is two DEMOCRATS. That&#8217;s why we MUST get behind one Republican. Chad Bianco has too much baggage: Democrats will use it to depress the Republican vote.”</p>
<p>Bianco, who is the Riverside County Sheriff, is at odds with Attorney General Rob Bonta over the seizure of an estimated 650,000 ballots from November’s Proposition 50 election in order to recount them, and a state court shot down Bonta’s request to have it stopped, according to <a href="https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/03/bonta-chad-bianco-ballots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CalMatters</a> on Tuesday.</p>
<p>“For those not aware, we are conducting an investigation into an alleged and potential 45,000 extra votes counted than the number of ballots cast in the November 2025 special election,” Bianco said in a Monday <a href="https://x.com/ChadBianco/status/2036279504629334333?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">video</a>.</p>
<p>Bonta’s office told CalMatters in a statement that “the Sheriff has not identified any particular crime that may have been committed by anyone — a necessary predicate to obtain a criminal search warrant.”</p>
<p>“The Riverside County Sheriff’s Office is not equipped nor legally authorized to play the role of elections monitor. By all appearances, this investigation is little more than a fishing expedition meant to sow distrust and undermine public confidence in our elections,” the statement continued.</p>

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In Race To Become Newsom’s Successor, Democrats Have Fears Confirmed