Here’s how World War III could happen.
To understand how, we should look historically at the closest that the world has gotten to World War III since the end of World War II.
The world came closest to World War III during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the Soviet Union attempted to ship nuclear-tipped missiles into Cuba and the United States put a blockade around Cuba to prevent that from happening.
The United States and the USSR stood eyeball-to-eyeball and eventually the USSR backed down. But — that was very, very close.
To understand why we came so close to the brink of nuclear war in 1962, you actually have to reverse field for a few years.
The reality is that the USSR started to challenge the United States so strenuously around the world because of roughly a decade of weakness in American foreign policy.
This is how world wars break out — miscalculation. They break out because one side believes that the other side is likely to cave in the face of its aggression.
It’s particularly true when the United States shows its neck to its enemies. So to really understand what was happening in the lead-up to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, you have to return to 1956, when Dwight Eisenhower was president and there was a crisis that emerged in the Middle East.
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That crisis involved the Suez Canal. Nasser, the nationalist, pan-Arab nationalist leader of Egypt, decided that he was going to unite all the Arab countries by flexing muscle in the face of the West. And so he decided that despite the fact that he had nothing to do with the building of the Suez Canal, he would nationalize the Suez Canal.
The French and the British both had an interest in the Suez Canal. And they said to Nasser, you can’t do that. The United States stood on the sidelines and vacillated for a couple of reasons: They believed that if they were kind enough to Nasser, then Nasser would not align himself with the Soviet Union and that Nasser might, in fact, become the tip of the spear in some sort of American overture to the Arab world; if they were just kind and nice to Nasser, then everything would work out just fine. They were supposedly afraid that the USSR was going to get directly involved in the Suez Canal crisis.
Meanwhile, the British were no longer an international power of the sort of vintage they had been historically. The British and the French, who had historically not worked particularly well together, decided to work with the Israelis in order to liberate the Suez Canal, which the British had built.
They went to the Israelis, who were worried about the Egyptian militarization of the Sinai Desert, and Israel decided that it would work with the British and the French in order to free the Suez Canal and possibly overthrow Nasser and put in place somebody who was not going to be an enemy of the West.
The Israelis ended up moving into the Sinai desert, which they quickly overran, and then they were on the march to Cairo.
The plan was for the British and the French to intervene, tell the Israelis to stop, and take over the Suez Canal.
And then — Eisenhower stepped in and rapped everyone on the knuckles. The United States actually stepped in on Egypt’s side and said to the British and the French that this was a violation of international law, hoping Nasser would then align himself with the West. The United States was basically saying to the British and the French that they were no longer world powers.
Again, the Egyptian government didn’t build the Suez Canal. The British government did it. None of that mattered; the bottom line was that the United States decided to play non-aligned. And in playing non-aligned, Nikita Khrushchev, the new premier of the Soviet Union, decided now was the time to move.
The next thing that happened, just a few months later, was that there was an uprising in Hungary, a state in the Soviet sphere of influence. Suddenly there was a Hungarian revolution, an attempt to actually substitute the puppet government that had been installed by the Soviets with a new government, a better government that was going to essentially remain non-aligned.
The Soviets immediately invaded Hungary and crushed everything and killed everyone involved in the Hungarian revolution of 1956. By 1957, Sputnik was launched and the space race was on. By 1958, Nikita Khrushchev, believing that he had the impetus, felt he had the power to challenge the United States globally.
In 1958, he demanded the withdrawal of American troops and Western troops from Berlin, beginning what was known as the Berlin crisis. For three long years, the Soviet Union and the United States stood toe-to-toe over Berlin.
Meanwhile, the Soviet Union facilitated a Cuban revolution that ended with Fidel Castro in charge of Cuba. In 1961, Khrushchev stepped in and solved the Berlin crisis by building the Berlin Wall, which lasted until 1989.
All of this led to the Cuban Missile crisis.
There is one rule when it comes to World War: Lack of clarity in your intention, vacillation, failure to make clear to your enemies what exactly your lines are.
Fake bluffs, empty threats. These things lead to war. Very often the open threat of war actually deters war. Very often, the willingness to actually flex muscle leads the other side to believe, “Hey, maybe I shouldn’t actually go and have this firefight with somebody. They’re ready to have the firefight.”
Miscalculation is the most likely way the great powers end up in war. That’s precisely what happened during World War I and happened during World War II. The Germans miscalculated because they thought that since the West had caved at Munich and because they’d been able to occupy the Sudetenland, they would then be able to then occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia. The aftermath of that was that they thought they could then occupy the Danzig corridor.
Failure of willingness to convey your intention, failure to act as an iron wall against the aggression of your enemies, leads to escalation. And then you actually do get dragged into hot wars that involve extraordinary numbers of casualties.
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Today there is a story out of the Daily Express that American troops are to be permanently stationed in Taiwan, according to Taipei.
Meanwhile, the Chinese are buzzing the borders of the Taiwan Strait, which is divided between Taiwan and China in terms of offshore control. Chinese jets have been busing the Taiwan Straits. The Chinese are again pursuing hypersonic missile tests.
Now, why would they be doing all of this? The reason they are doing that is because Joe Biden has demonstrated he’s showing his neck while China has been busily facilitating the creation of an anti-American, anti-Western alliance predominantly staffed by China, Russia and Iran.
Those are countries that are very obviously working together, so much so that the Houthis, an Iranian-backed terror group that is currently attacking shipping in the Red Sea, announced that they would not attack any Chinese or Russian shipping in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden.
What the Biden administration should be doing is taking the position that it is going to destroy any Houthi attempts to harass shipping in the Red Sea. What the United States should be doing in Ukraine is holding the line; the United States does have an interest in holding the line against Russia. The United States, when it comes to Israel, should be saying that Israel has the full capacity to go in to strike Hamas, which is an Iranian proxy group.
The reason that China is getting aggressive with Taiwan, the reason that a war could possibly break out is because China is thinking, “We just don’t believe that Joe Biden is going to do anything about that. Not only that, you guys look so divided internally in the United States on foreign policy that if we make a move, we think that probably you will just let it go.”
The single most effective method of upgrading Chinese military capacity is to take or blockade Taiwan. It’s not about the money for the Chinese military; it is about the microchips. Taiwan is the largest manufacturer of microchips, sophisticated microchips on the planet.
Those microchips are the single greatest advantage the United States has in terms of military tech, because we design all the software here and then the hardware is then printed off and created in Taiwan, but we’re not even able to ramp up our microchip facilities in the United States fast enough to make up for Taiwan being lost.
But mostly, this is about will.
After the abandonment of Hong Kong, after the abandonment of Afghanistan, after the internal pressures in the United States over Ukraine and Israel, the Chinese are hoping that Taiwan is going to get the message and elect a government that is friendlier to China and then just give them the microchips. Suddenly their military would go from a very large but second-rate military to a first-class military.
It is a game of perception. How does the world perceive Joe Biden right now? They perceive him as weak. How does the world perceive the United States? They perceive the United States as divided. When you have a weak president and a divided United States, that seems like a really good time to march.
And that’s precisely why it matters.