A slew of bookmakers following the odds of President Trump winning the 2020 election say that former Vice President Joe Biden has caught up with the White House incumbent.
“If you had told most Americans even a fortnight ago that Joe Biden would be neck-and-neck with Trump they’d have thought you were mad – but here we are,” Oddschecker spokesman Pete Watt said.
Oddscheckers are giving Trump and Biden the exact same probability of winning the election on November 3. Both men’s odds come in at +110, which indicate that the books believe they each have a 47.6% chance of winning the White House. Odds of +110 mean that a bet of $10 will return $21 in total, with a profit of $11.
For Biden, it has been a remarkable comeback. Just a few months ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was a solid frontrunner, then former mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders came on strong, winning Iowa and New Hampshire in the first two measures of voter interest. But Biden, who did not fare well in Iowa, New Hampshire nor Nevada, turned it around in South Carolina, and he went on to win big on Super Tuesday.
Sanders, though, has vowed not to give up, but he remains an outside shot, with his odds of +4000, suggesting just a 2.40% chance of victory.
“The Democratic Primaries have thrown up surprise after surprise, with many different candidates seeming like the clear frontrunner at times,” Watt said. “It is however looking increasingly likely that the former vice-president has got the content wrapped up, and that there will be no further shocks… or will there?”
Other betting houses also show the odds tightening.
“In a matter of only a few days, Donald Trump’s implied probability of winning the 2020 presidential election has fallen from 50.2% to 43.9% according to betting odds at European sportsbook Betfair,” Action Network reports. “He went from a -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) as of Thursday to +100 (bet $100 to win $100) as of Sunday. Joe Biden’s odds, meanwhile, have risen from +110 to +100.”
Heading into Super Tuesday (March 3), Trump was a -162 betting favorite, so his implied probability has fallen 8.7% since. For context on how much ground Biden has gained on Trump on the betting board over the past 12 days, the former Vice President was a +500 underdog (14.2% implied probability) prior to his big Super Tuesday wins.
Biden being even money to win the presidential election of course means that he’s a heavy -2500 favorite (88.8% implied probability) to win the Democratic nomination, mounting a growing lead over Bernie Sanders, who is an +2500 underdog (3.6% implied probability) heading into Sunday night’s debate.
The full odds:
Donald Trump: -125, 50.2% implied probability
Joe Biden: +110, 43.1% implied probability
Bernie Sanders: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
Hillary Clinton: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
Michelle Obama: +8000, 1.1% implied probability
Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
Tulsi Gabbard: +37500, 0.2% implied probability
Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability
“As of March 16th, Biden’s odds have moved to -105 after looking like he had no shot prior to his huge Super Tuesday win back on March 3rd. President Donald Trump’s odds have moved to EVEN, which are the highest they’ve been during his first term as POTUS,” OddsShark reports.