Iowa Democrats still have yet to release the full results from Monday night’s caucus, but the slate of potential 2020 Democratic presidential nominees has already moved on to New Hampshire, where they will compete in the first-in-the-nation primary vote next Tuesday, February 11.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who, by all accounts, won the Iowa Democratic caucuses, already has a commanding lead in two New Hampshire polls released Wednesday.
In the Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll — largely consider the most accurate poll for New Hampshire — Sanders leads the rest of the field with 24%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is in second, but far behind, with just 18%, and former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is closing in on the top ranks with 15%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who, at one time, was expected to win New Hampshire (she represents neighboring Massachusetts), is in a distant fourth place with just 10%.
The results are largely the same for Sanders in the UMass Amherst and WCV poll, also released Wednesday, though Joe Biden does fare better against the Vermont socialist. “Sen. Bernie Sanders led the pack with 25%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 20%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 17%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg garnering 12% from the respondents,” a New Hampshire ABC News affiliate reported.
Most of the likely voters polled by UMass said they believe Biden, not Sanders, has the better chance of defeating President Donald Trump, but that’s not guiding their vote.
Sanders’ success in New Hampshire won’t come as much of a surprise. He took every precinct in New Hampshire in 2016, easily beating Hillary Clinton just days after nearly tying with her in Iowa. Clinton, of course, went on to defeat Sanders soundly in further primaries (though even by New Hampshire, she’d already collected enough “superdelegates” to lock in a win with or without state-by-state victories).
What’s really fascinating about Wednesday’s poll results is how Buttigieg has managed to capitalize on his “win” in Iowa. Per CBS Boston, the self-described “moderate” former mayor has jumped five points in just the last two days, putting him in a statistical dead heat for second with Biden and, it appears, causing Warren to drop nearly into the second tier of candidates. That seems to indicate that Buttigieg has his biggest impact on the Massachusetts Democrat, not the former Veep, meaning Warren could see herself scaling way back on her campaign after New Hampshire.
Buttigieg also has the most to lose if he doesn’t snag a solid finish next Tuesday. Biden isn’t seriously competing in New Hampshire, and if Buttigieg has to put in a week’s worth of work to merely tie Biden, it will be difficult for him to make the argument he’s a necessary addition to the field. His either first- or second-place finish in Iowa was the result of months of planning and targeting, massive staff buildup, and heavy voter identification and get out the vote efforts that can’t be repeated in states where there’s no months-long lead up.
Absent from the polling results is Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who claimed a fourth place finish in Iowa on Tuesday hoping that could rocket her to some success in New Hampshire. So far, that hasn’t panned out.