Republicans say California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push could become a “national embarrassment,” pointing to a new poll showing Republican Jim Desmond just three points behind his Democrat opponent despite millions of dollars in attacks against him.
The survey, conducted October 17-20 by polling firm The Tarrance Group, found Democrat Marni von Wilpert leading Desmond 47% to 44% among 410 likely voters in California’s 48th Congressional District. The poll’s margin of error is 4.9 percentage points. The survey was commissioned by Desmond’s campaign.
The district, which stretches across parts of San Diego and Riverside counties, was redrawn in California’s 2025 redistricting effort, transforming a previously Republican-leaning seat into a Democratic-leaning battleground. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who has represented the area for more than two decades, is retiring, leaving an open seat that Democrats hope to flip.
But National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Christian Martinez told The Daily Wire that Democrats’ spending had failed to put Desmond out of contention.
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“Democrats can’t sell Marni von Wilpert’s disastrous record, and they can’t spend enough to bury it,” Martinez said. “Their candidate is a dud, their arrogance is expensive, and Jim Desmond will turn Gavin Newsom’s prized gerrymander into a national embarrassment.”
Desmond’s campaign said more than $7.5 million had been spent attacking him since the beginning of September.
“They’ve spent millions attacking me, and voters aren’t buying it,” Desmond exclusively told The Daily Wire. “People have lived through years of failed California policies. Higher taxes, higher costs, and a state that keeps making life harder for families. They know what that looks like, and they’re ready for something different. We’re fighting for common sense and lower costs, and that’s why we’re going to win.”
The polling memo also found Newsom unpopular among voters registered with no party preference, with 37% viewing him favorably and 53% unfavorably.
Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor and former mayor of San Marcos, has centered his campaign on reducing taxes, cutting costs, and opposing regulations he argues make life more expensive for Californians. He has also sought to distinguish himself from President Donald Trump on certain issues, despite receiving the president’s endorsement.
The race has attracted substantial outside spending. According to CalMatters, more than $6 million in independent expenditures had poured into the contest, nearly all supporting von Wilpert, including spending by House Majority PAC and Democratic Majority for Israel. Desmond had also received support from Trump’s No Going Back PAC.
CalMatters reported that von Wilpert had raised $4.5 million, compared with $3 million for Desmond.
The Cook Political Report rates the race “Lean Democratic,” and the district has a Democratic-leaning partisan voting index of D+2. Democrats gained a three-percentage-point voter registration advantage when the district was redrawn, according to CalMatters.
Von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member, has presented herself as a mainstream Democrat with a record of winning in competitive territory. She has emphasized affordability, her support for Israel, and opposition to Trump’s policies.
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