Elise Stefanik Set To Challenge Hochul For New York Governor

Trump ally Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is set to launch her campaign for New York governor, giving Republicans new hope of flipping the traditionally deep blue Empire State, two sources familiar with Stefanik’s thinking told The Hill.

“It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” one source close to Stefanik told The Hill, noting that the congresswoman will announce “at the time and place” of her choosing.

As The Daily Wire previously reported, Stefanik has been considering a run in recent months, following President Trump’s decision to withdraw her nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador, deeming it too risky to put her competitive district up for an open election ahead of Trump’s push for his “big, beautiful bill.”

RUN @EliseStefanik RUN!! https://t.co/EJu4v6jz2n

— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) June 26, 2025

Stefanik was the number four Republican in the House, serving as Chair of the House Republican Conference after replacing former Rep. Liz Cheney, before being briefly nominated as U.N. ambassador.

Polling indicates strong support for the Trump ally, with a GrayHouse survey showing Stefanik commanding 44% among Republican primary voters compared to just 7% for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and 5% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, both of whom received Trump endorsements for reelection to their current positions last month.

Republicans have reason for optimism in the traditionally Democratic stronghold, as the GOP has made significant gains in recent elections.

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Trump lost New York by just over 12 points in 2024, a dramatic 11-point improvement from his 2020 performance, while current Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul defeated Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by only 6 points in her 2022 race. However, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report still considers the upcoming gubernatorial contest “likely Democratic.”

Stefanik, 41, has risen quickly through the Republican ranks since first being elected to Congress in 2014 at the age of 30 – at that time, the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. Her national profile grew significantly during former President Trump’s first impeachment proceedings, when she emerged as one of his most vocal defenders.

Republicans have been increasingly competitive in parts of New York, particularly in Long Island and Hudson Valley districts that helped the party secure a narrow House majority in 2022. Economic concerns, rising crime rates, and migration issues have become prominent topics that GOP candidates have successfully leveraged to win local races.

Stefanik’s run would come after socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo in Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary, inciting panic among many in the city and providing a fruitful target for the New York Representative.

Mamdani, a state assemblyman representing parts of Queens, has championed policies that alarm fiscal conservatives and moderate Democrats alike. His platform includes advocating for city-owned supermarkets, rent freezing measures, and significant reallocations of police funding to social services.

Stefanik would likely face incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election.

Hochul, who took office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation amid sexual harassment allegations, has faced criticism over her handling of crime and the state’s high cost of living, issues that could provide an opening for Republicans to make further inroads with New York voters.

The Worst Governor in America Kathy Hochul desperately tries to distance herself from the Defund the Police, raging antisemite Communist except Kathy refuses to denounce any of his insane Marxist policies. She OWNS this catastrophic candidate who will destroy NYC.

Kathy Hochul… https://t.co/ifBXhTFEGx

— Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) June 26, 2025