Four long days after Election Day, Joe Biden finally crept over the line with 279 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 214. With more than the required 270, and only 45 votes remaining, Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States if recounts or legal challenges don’t overturn the result of several pivotal states in favor of Trump.
It was predicted by many that mail-in votes in their various forms (whether solicited absentee ballots or unsolicited universal mail-in ballots) would play a large role in deciding this election due to the unprecedented challenge presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. For months, controversy surrounded these forms of ballots, and it’s likely that much of the inevitable post-election litigation will focus on mail-in voting (such as the deadline permitted or whether a postmark is required).
While many of these details will work themselves out via legal procedure, it’s important to understand what impact mail-in voting had on the election. Here is a breakdown based on current figures:
The following states expanded absentee/mail-in voting eligibility (with valid excuses if listed):
- Alabama (illness/infirmity), Arkansas (illness or disability), Connecticut (COVID-19), Delaware (no excuse required), Kentucky (COVID-19), Massachusetts (no excuse required), Mississippi (voters who test positive for COVID-19 or are quarantined), Missouri (voters who test positive for COVID-19 or are at risk), New Hampshire (COVID-19), New York (illness), South Carolina, West Virginia.
The following states mailed absentee/mail-in ballot applications to voters pro-actively:
- Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico (by county), Ohio, Rhode Island, Wisconsin.
The following states mailed ballots to all voters without request:
- California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Montana (by county), Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington,
The following states have released a significant percentage of their mail-in ballot data.
Arkansas
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,209,279 total votes. Donald Trump has 756,995 votes (62.6%), Joe Biden has 418,017 votes (34.6%). With 99% of counties reporting a total of 941,540 mail-in votes, Trump received 60.7% and Biden received 36.8% of mail-in votes.
Arizona
97% of estimated votes reporting, with 3,323,228 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,626,943 votes (48.96%), Joe Biden has 1,644,074 votes (49.47%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 2,957,006 mail-in votes, Trump received 46.9% and Biden received 51.6% of mail-in votes.
California
89% of estimated votes reporting, with 14,427,081 total votes. Donald Trump has 4,814,402 votes (33.4%), Joe Biden has 9,325,844 votes (64.6%). With 55% of counties reporting a total of 8,081,987 mail-in votes, Trump received 30.1% and Biden received 68.1% of mail-in votes.
Connecticut
97% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,804,844 total votes. Donald Trump has 710,448 votes (39.4%), Joe Biden has 1,066,114 votes (59.1%). With 38% of counties reporting a total of 61,207 mail-in votes, Trump received 23.8% and Biden received 74.9% of mail-in votes.
Florida
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 11,075,804 total votes. Donald Trump has 5,667,832 votes (51.2%), Joe Biden has 5,294,767 votes (47.8%). With 84% of counties reporting a total of 7,963,602 mail-in votes, Trump has 47.4% and Biden has 51.7% of mail-in votes.
Georgia
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 4,985,005 total votes. Donald Trump has 2,455,985 votes (49.27%), Joe Biden has 2,466,632 votes (49.48%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 4,002,058 mail-in votes, Trump received 46.6% and Biden received 52.4% of mail-in votes.
Hawaii
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 573,854 total votes. Donald Trump has 196,602 votes (34.3%), Joe Biden has 365,802 votes (63.7%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 28,604 mail-in votes, Trump received 71.1% and Biden received 27.3% of mail-in votes.
Idaho
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 867,971 total votes. Donald Trump has 554,019 votes (63.8%), Joe Biden has 286,991 votes (33.1%). With 36% of counties reporting a total of 396,933 mail-in votes, Trump received 52.1% and Biden received 45.2% of mail-in votes.
Indiana
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 3,032,025 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,727,234 votes (57%), Joe Biden has 1,239,771 votes (40.9%). With 53% of counties reporting a total of 737,018 mail-in votes, Trump received 56% and Biden received 42.3% of mail-in votes.
Iowa
98% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,686,678 total votes. Donald Trump has 896,174 votes (53.1%), Joe Biden has 757,735 votes (44.9%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 983,329 mail-in votes, Trump received 41.1% and Biden received 57.5% of mail-in votes.
Kansas
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,334,330 total votes. Donald Trump has 753,370 votes (56.5%), Joe Biden has 551,199 votes (41.3%). With 35% of counties reporting a total of 194,769 mail-in votes, Trump received 51.9% and Biden received 46.1% of mail-in votes.
Kentucky
98% of estimated votes reporting, with 2,135,253 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,346,354 votes (62.1%), Joe Biden has 772,265 votes (36.2%). With 33% of counties reporting a total of 329,780 mail-in votes, Trump received 54.8% and Biden received 43.7% of mail-in votes.
Maine
91% of estimated votes reporting, with 784,112 total votes. Donald Trump has 340,667 votes (43.4%), Joe Biden has 419,481 votes (53.5%). With 50% of counties reporting a total of 60,114 mail-in votes, Trump received 29% and Biden received 67.9% of mail-in votes.
Maryland
80% of estimated votes reporting, with 2,497,959 total votes. Donald Trump has 861,861 votes (34.5%), Joe Biden has 1,590,324 votes (63.7%). With 25% of counties reporting a total of 580,356 mail-in votes, Trump received 29.9% and Biden received 68.3% of mail-in votes.
Massachusetts
93% of estimated votes reporting, with 3,454,021 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,121,180 votes (32.5%), Joe Biden has 2,254,190 votes (65.3%). With 64% of counties reporting a total of 127,899 mail-in votes, Trump received 30.1% and Biden received 67.8% of mail-in votes.
Michigan
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 5,530,391 total votes. Donald Trump has 2,646,957 votes (47.9%), Joe Biden has 2,794,853 votes (50.5%). With 16% of counties reporting a total of 1,423,089 mail-in votes, Trump received 30.4% and Biden received 68.3% of mail-in votes.
New Hampshire
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 806,368 total votes. Donald Trump has 365,719 votes (45.4%), Joe Biden has 424,930 votes (52.7%). With 50% of counties reporting a total of 9,175 mail-in votes, Trump received 48.4% and Biden received 49.6% of mail-in votes.
New Jersey
83% of estimated votes reporting, with 3,727,811 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,510,637 votes (40.5%), Joe Biden has 2,163,359 votes (58%). With 57% of counties reporting a total of 1,653,465 mail-in votes, Trump received 44.9% and Biden received 53.6% of mail-in votes.
North Carolina
98% of estimated votes reporting, with 5,464,196 total votes. Donald Trump has 2,733,743 votes (50%), Joe Biden has 2,658,322 votes (48.6%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 4,575,101 mail-in votes, Trump received 47.1% and Biden received 51.8% of mail-in votes.
Ohio
95% of estimated votes reporting, with 5,769,377 total votes. Donald Trump has 3,071,959 votes (53.2%), Joe Biden has 2,611,377 votes (45.3%). With 38% of counties reporting a total of 2,005,299 mail-in votes, Trump received 41.7% and Biden received 57% of mail-in votes.
Oklahoma
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,560,699 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,020,280 votes (65.4%), Joe Biden has 503,890 votes (32.3%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 448,086 mail-in votes, Trump received 49.2% and Biden received 48.8% of mail-in votes.
Pennsylvania
98% of estimated votes reporting, with 6,767,119 total votes. Donald Trump has 3,317,280 votes (49.02%), Joe Biden has 3,362,343 votes (49.69%). With 30% of counties reporting a total of 1,170,351 mail-in votes, Trump received 20% and Biden received 79.1% of mail-in votes.
South Carolina
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 2,515,928 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,386,208 votes (55.1%), Joe Biden has 1,092,519 votes (43.4%). With 98% of counties reporting a total of 1,190,123 mail-in votes, Trump received 46.9% and Biden received 52% of mail-in votes.
Tennessee
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 3,049,471 total votes. Donald Trump has 1,849,791 votes (60.7%), Joe Biden has 1,139,364 votes (37.4%). With 26% of counties reporting a total of 1,299,092 mail-in votes, Trump received 48.6% and Biden received 49.4% of mail-in votes.
Texas
97% of estimated votes reporting, with 11,259,168 total votes. Donald Trump has 5,872,362 votes (52.2%), Joe Biden has 5,216,327 votes (46.3%). With 100% of counties reporting a total of 9,773,704 mail-in votes, Trump received 51.1% and Biden received 47.6% of mail-in votes.
Utah
97% of estimated votes reporting, with 1,303,836 total votes. Donald Trump has 759,638 votes (58.3%), Joe Biden has 489,469 votes (37.5%). With 17% of counties reporting a total of 445,987 mail-in votes, Trump received 49% and Biden received 47.9% of mail-in votes.
Virginia
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 4,434,239 total votes. Joe Biden has 2,399,225 votes (54.1%), Donald Trump has 1,965,147 votes (44.3%). With 97% of counties reporting a total of 2,348,852 mail-in votes, Biden received 62.3% and Trump received 36.6% of mail-in votes.
West Virginia
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 786,620 total votes. Donald Trump has 540,067 votes (68.7%), Joe Biden has 232,749 votes (29.6%). With 15% of counties reporting a total of 129,173 mail-in votes, Trump received 52.2% and Biden received 46% of mail-in votes.
Wyoming
>98% of estimated votes reporting, with 276,528 total votes. Donald Trump has 193,454 votes (70%), Joe Biden has 73,445 votes (26.6%). With 26% of counties reporting a total of 46,113 absentee votes, Trump received 73.5% and Biden received 23.2% of mail-in votes.
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While the final results from various states will take time, one thing is clear: for many states, mail-in voting was a definitive factor in the path to victory, and Joe Biden disproportionately outperformed Trump in almost every single one of these states.
Ian Haworth is host of The Ian Haworth Show and The Truth in 60 Seconds. Follow him on Twitter at @ighaworth.