Republicans in California have had a notoriously uphill battle when it comes to getting elected in recent years. However, the Democratic field in the 2026 gubernatorial race continues to grow larger, and it could spell trouble for the party with the state’s unusual “top two” primary system.
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) entered the race this week, with fellow Democrats including former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond being among the long list of people in the race, with former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco being the two major Republican names in the race.
If the field does not thin out before the June 2 primary election, it could result in an uncomfortably close primary victory margin for the Democrat who makes it to the top two – or an even seemingly unlikely scenario of both Hilton and Bianco advancing to the general.
Primary polling has shown both of the Republicans alternating between first and third place spots, depending upon the poll, with Porter usually in coming in second. The field is so large that the margins between the candidates are fairly narrow.
The former congresswoman’s campaign has been marred by controversy following a botched viral interview with CBS News and a Politico report of a video of her telling a staffer to “Get out of my f***ing shot!”
It’s unclear if the Democrats will consolidate, given that many of the Democrats in the race took a shot at Porter amid the controversy, and she also took aim at billionaire climate change activist Tom Steyer’s entrance into the race earlier this week.
“I don’t think it’s impacted my race. I think all along we truly have believed that we are going to be number one in this race anyway. And so really, it’s going down to number two. Honestly, what we’re seeing is complete disarray in the Democrat Party,” Bianco told The Daily Wire.
He further added that “yes, it’s very possible with the right campaign that two Republicans end at the top,” saying that he’s heard from moderate Democrats wanting to back his campaign over the issue of public safety.
“I mean, my starting point is that I’m very confident not just that I’m gonna get into the top two for the general election, but I’m actually gonna win this race, because California is just so sick of what’s going on,” Hilton told The Daily Wire, noting that the state of the race “reflects the arrogance and corruption and entitlement of the years of one-party rule.”
“These Democrats assume that if they can just get into the top two, they’re gonna win,” he added.
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“I’ve heard this speculation that there may be two Republicans in the top two. We’ll see, but I’m just fighting to make sure I’m in the top two,” he later added, saying that issues like cutting taxes and lowering gas prices have been sticking points of his campaign.
There’s even been statewide races in California where only Democrats have made it to the top two, such as Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez in the 2016 Senate race.
Outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom has yet to endorse a replacement, and Sen. Alex Padilla notably decided against running for the position. Earlier this month, Proposition 50, which would add five Democrat-favored congressional seats to its map for the next three election cycles, passed by a wide margin, but Hilton says it should not be considered an indicator in the gubernatorial race.
“In the end, the Prop. 50 campaign wasn’t really about the lives of Californians and how they’re being made so difficult by the Democrats,” he said.
“I’m guaranteeing you, there’s going to be more, it’s not gonna stop here,” Bianco said regarding the pool of Democrats in the race.
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