California Republicans appear energized heading into the state’s closely watched June 2 primary, holding an early turnout advantage as Democrats scramble to unite behind a candidate in multiple key races.
The Golden State sends every registered voter a mail-in ballot, arguing that the policy gives voters ample time and access to make their voices heard. With a few weeks until Election Day, more than 900,000 have returned ballots in California&#8217;s primary, which features a contentious gubernatorial race plagued by <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/swalwell-accuser-claims-dem-drugged-choked-and-raped-her?author=Jacob+Wheeler&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=73&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Swalwell+Accuser+Claims+Dem+Drugged%2C+Choked%2C+And+Raped+Her">scandals</a> and <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrat-crashes-out-on-reporter-before-she-can-even-ask-a-question?author=Jacob+Wheeler&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=13&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Democrat+Crashes+Out+On+Reporter+Before+She+Can+Even+Ask+A+Question">stumbles</a> and the Los Angeles mayoral contest. 
The data,<a href="https://tracker.politicaldata.com/?type=statewide"> compiled by Political Data Intelligence</a>, paints an encouraging early picture for Republicans. As of May 15, statewide Republican turnout stood at 6%, compared to 4% for Democrats. Despite trailing Democrats nearly 2-to-1 in voter registration, Republicans remain competitive in the total vote share.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
California Early Voting Now vs at this point in 2022
At this point in 2022: 
🔵 54% 
🔴 26% 
🟡 20%
(719k Voted)
Now: 
🔵 41% (-13) 
🔴 37% (+11) 
🟡 22% (+2)
(906K Voted) <a href="https://t.co/dI1IfKRDjB">https://t.co/dI1IfKRDjB</a> <a href="https://t.co/FRGT6nYz2E">pic.twitter.com/FRGT6nYz2E</a>
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) <a href="https://twitter.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2055711433568969212?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2026</a></blockquote>
Of the 900,000 ballots returned so far, 371,130 were cast by registered Democrats, compared to 334,791 from registered Republicans. Another 199,967 came from independents or voters with no party affiliation. GOP returns have increased 11% compared to this point in the 2022 midterm cycle. 
In battleground Orange County — where President Ronald Reagan once joked that <a href="https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-republican-campaign-rally-fullerton-california">“good Republicans go before they die”</a> — the divide is even more pronounced. Roughly 6% of registered voters have returned ballots, with Republicans holding an advantage of more than 10,000 votes. 
In San Diego County, where Democrats make up the majority of registered voters, Republicans have posted an 11% turnout rate — nearly double the Democratic rate of 6% — and account for a majority of returned ballots.
Even in deep-blue Los Angeles County, home to the marquee showdown between Mayor Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt, Republicans hold a 4% turnout rate, compared to a sluggish 2% for Democrats. Democrats maintain a raw vote lead in the City of Los Angeles, reflecting their significant registration advantage over Republicans.
Older white voters make up the overwhelming majority of the early vote so far, according to PDI&#8217;s data. 
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald] Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/05/16/us-news/california-sees-massive-surge-in-republican-votes-as-more-than-900k-ballots-already-returned/?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=nypost&amp;utm_source=twitter">told The New York Post.</a> “It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away.”
On the Republican side, voters have to choose between former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads the crowded Democratic field, followed by progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. 
Under California’s “jungle primary” system, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election in November regardless of party.

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California Republicans See Surge In Early Voting With Democrats In Disarray

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California Republicans See Surge In Early Voting With Democrats In Disarray