Republicans will fail to gain enough seats to take back the Senate majority, according to a projection by DecisionDeskHQ. The Senate will remain under Democrat control, since ties are broken by the vice president.
The projection came after DecisionDeskHQ called the Nevada race for the Democrats. The partisan makeup of the Senate will be decided after the December 6 Senate runoff between Republican Herschel Walker and Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA).
Although polls tightened in the final month leading up to the election, the 2022 midterms quickly turned into a disaster for Republicans. RealClearPolitics’ Senate Projection predicted the GOP would pick up three seats – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. But in Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly, the incumbent Democrat, was leading by two points a week before Election Day, and managed to hold on even after the state’s Libertarian candidate Marc Victor dropped out and endorsed Republican candidate Blake Masters on November 1.
Nevada offered the GOP a chance to flip a seat, with former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt leading in most polls against incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. In the end, Laxalt failed to oust Cortez Masto.
Another key Senate race included Ohio, where Republican J.D. Vance defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan to help the GOP hold the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Rob Portman.
In New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan, the incumbent and a former governor, was initially expected to win easily, with polls as late as October showing her up six or seven points on Republican challenger Don Bolduc. But in the weeks leading up to the election, Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army general, took a narrow lead in multiple polls. On election day, however, Hassan was victorious, winning 53.9% of the vote.
Another seat Republicans were hoping to hold was in Pennsylvania, where Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz ran against Democratic State Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Fetterman was leading by double digits in polls back in July and August, but his decision to keep running after suffering a stroke in May and disastrous debate performance caused his poll numbers to fall. Oz, however, wasn’t able to overtake Fetterman.