While politicos in the U.S. are all hat and no cattle, when you’re trying to figure out who will win, look to the British bookies, who put their money where their mouths are.
Gambling.com‘s resident political betting expert Joe Short recently took a look at the re-election odds of President Joe Biden and who might take it all in 2024.
(For the following odds, +200 signifies the amount a better could win when wagering $100. So, if the bet’s successful, a player would receive a total payout of $300 ($200 net profit + $100 initial stake) on +200 odds.)
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump- +300
Ron DeSantis- +500
Joe Biden- +550
Kamala Harris- +1000
Jeff Bezos- +2000
Nikki Haley- +2000
Mike Pence- +2500
Pete Buttigeg- +4000
Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson- +4000
Ted Cruz- +4000
Kristi Noem- +4000
“Right now Trump is the +300 favourite to win the next US election, with Biden out at +550,” Short said in an email. “Current vice president Kamala Harris (+1000) isn’t even the third favourite. Instead, Florida governor Ron DeSantis – the most likely figure to top the GOP ticket if Trump chooses not to run for president again – is in a better position than Harris at +500.”
“Biden’s odds reflect a growing doubt from within US politics betting circles that the president will run again. What’s more, even if he does seek a second term it will be a monumental battle to stop Trump from this position,” he said.
“Indeed, Trump is giving every indication he will seek to reclaim the presidency in 2024, and his presence across America’s right wing has never gone away since he lost the last election by more than seven million votes,” Short said. “The 75-year-old will have his eyes on the midterms as a gauge of where America is at with Biden. Heavy GOP victories in November would only fuel the Republican mandate to reinstall Trump and continue from where he left off in 2020.”
Bookies also aren’t sure Biden will stay in office for his full term.
“According to the best politics betting sites, Biden has a 66% chance of remaining in office for his first full term,” Short said. “That is practically a given – even though it leaves a one-in-three chance that he is impeached or steps down from the presidency before the end of 2024. Neither of those outcomes appear likely, even if the GOP wins majorities in the House and Senate this year and finds grounds for impeachment.”
What’s more, bookies think the GOP is poised for big wins in the 2022. “Bookmakers currently believe the Republicans have an 83% chance of winning a House majority, and a 73% chance of commanding the Senate,” Short said.
“If the party performs as expected this autumn then Trump’s odds of being the next US president will fall even further. The task for Biden, therefore, is to try and avert a disastrous midterm result by offering something that Americans can get behind. A flurry of executive actions could do the trick, with a specific focus on combatting the climate crisis and easing cost of living issues. Progressive Democrats are urging the president to act in order to boost the party’s electoral chances come November,” he said.
“Wait too long and it might be too late. But bring forward too many executive actions and Biden will face accusations of overriding America’s political processes. But with his approval ratings already at a record low, the veteran needs to act in some way or other,” Short said.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent, and ran the Drudge Report from 2010 to 2015. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.