<p class="p1">How do we measure the effectiveness of public policy? As the kids say, there will be signs. For measuring immigration policies, birth data serves as a lagging indicator.</p>
<p class="p1">Newly released Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/america-is-on-track-to-literally-die-off-new-fertility-data-warns">data</a> indicate that the number of babies born in the United States in 2025 declined 1% from a year earlier. Some in the anti-natalist camp might tout that number as a positive indication of an upwardly mobile, (mostly white), urban class prioritizing career and climate concerns for such a change. But a closer look at the demographic data reveals something different at play.</p>
<p class="p1">Though all demographics are declining in raw birth numbers, non-Hispanic whites are declining by the smallest amount, meaning their overall percentage of births is <i>increasing</i>. In February, non-Hispanic whites accounted for 50.7% of all births in the United States, and could well be a majority this year, the first time in three years.<img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Xg6C!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2f6471b-e187-49f7-bd9e-5f82942417f4_1714x1126.png" /></p>
<p class="p1">With the exception of Indian and Cuban immigrants, all other large populations have seen their birth rates decline by double digits compared to last February.</p>
<p class="p1">Births from Chinese immigrants are -17.5%, Colombians are -10.5%, Ecuadorans are -22%, El Salvadorians are -15%, Guatemalans are -16%, Haitians are -16%, Hondurans are -15%, and Mexicans are -13%. The data is computed from the <a href="https://wonder.cdc.gov/natality.html">CDC Wonder</a> website&#8217;s live birth natality data.</p>
<p class="p1"><img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N8x9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7420278a-6542-4e59-ab17-f73799dd53d6_802x760.png" /></p>
<p class="p1">Trump’s mass deportation efforts, which include practices such as self-deportation, may be having a large effect.</p>
<p class="p1">There still is not much to be done when an illegal alien is in the U.S. and already pregnant; she’ll only need to wait through the term of her pregnancy and have the baby here to grant the child citizenship, as recent Supreme Court arguments look poised to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/supreme-court-weighs-trumps-push-to-end-birthright-citizenship-with-president-in-attendance?author=Zach+Jewell&amp;category=News&amp;elementPosition=1&amp;row=0&amp;rowType=Vertical+List&amp;title=Trump+Torches+%E2%80%98Stupid%E2%80%99+Birthright+Citizenship+After+Supreme+Court+Appearance"><span class="s1">reinforce</span></a>.</p>
<p class="p1">If she’s not pregnant, then there’s less of an incentive to stay.</p>
<p class="p1">In fact, the Trump administration has been reshaping the immigration courts to reflect his policies. The outcome of pressuring judges to conform to stricter parameters for granting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/us/politics/trump-miller-immigration-judges-purge.html"><span class="s1">asylum</span></a> is a dramatic decrease in asylum grant rates — just 7% in February. This is down from totals above 50% under the Biden and Obama administrations. In conjunction with immigration cases being decided faster, this adds up to fewer potential babies being born to illegal immigrants.</p>
<p class="p1">With the immigration crackdown, the U.S. fertility rate has dipped to 1.57 children per woman, which is still larger than most countries in Europe, Asia, Australia, and South America. There are more factors than just immigration to explain the dip.</p>
<p class="p1">Aside from American Indians and Native Hawaiians, all other races and ethnicities saw their raw numbers decline from February 2025 to February 2026. This is especially true of black Americans whose numbers are falling by nearly double digits year-to-year.<img decoding="async" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oopR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb6f67ab-9c8f-4f98-9f05-ed0941086261_1724x1096.png" /></p>
<p class="p2">Whites accounted for a majority of births in 34 states and a plurality in nine states. Latinos were a plurality of births in four states and a majority in one. The District of Columbia was plurality non-Hispanic black, and Hawaii was the only state where multiracial births were the plurality.</p>
<p class="p2">The decline in black fertility has been so large that many states with historically large black populations have more Latino births in February than black, including Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Other states like Arkansas and Maryland could very well see Latino births outpacing blacks by the end of the year or the beginning of next year.</p>
<p class="p2">The birthrate numbers don’t lie. They unequivocally demonstrate the effectiveness of the Trump administration’s policies — policies that are bringing the country back from the brink of an uncontrolled influx of illegal immigrants and the persistent socioeconomic, political, and cultural problems that go with it. Future administrations should continue these policies for lasting change and signal to the rest of the world that America is no longer an open-border free-for-all. Illegal immigration isn’t inevitable; it’s a policy choice. We should continue to make the right one.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p><em><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ryan James Girdusky is an author, podcaster, political consultant, and writer whose work has been featured in multiple publications including the Washington Examiner, The American Conservative Magazine, The Week, Human Events, and The Daily Caller. He is the host of “It’s A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky” podcast and writes at the <a href="https://natpop.substack.com/">Nationalist Populist</a> Substack. Follow him on X: @RyanGirdusky</span></em></p>

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Birthrate Data Shows Trump’s Immigration Policy Is Working