President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris hyped Tuesday’s elections in the days leading up to the contests, staking much of their future success on the outcome.
Tuesday’s elections in Virginia and New Jersey wound up being a marked defeat for Democrats who lost state-wide races in Virginia and made a lackluster showing New Jersey. Democrats were expected to win comfortably in both states in the months leading up to the contests.
“What happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on,” Harris said at a rally shortly before Tuesday’s election.
Last week, Biden told reporters that Tuesday would determine control of Congress in 2022 and define the rest of his presidency. As Politico reported Wednesday morning:
Before he departed, Biden told House Democrats, “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.” He meant inaction on his two legislative priorities, leaving Europe with no congressional backing for his climate proposals, and potential defeats in one or more crucial elections Tuesday that would make everything worse. Biden may have been prescient.
In Virginia, Republican Glenn Youngkin knocked off Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor, upsetting the former governor of Virginia who was an early favorite to retake the office. Youngkin’s victory was joined by Republican Winsome Sears, who defeated Democrat Hala Ayala for lieutenant governor, and Republican Jason Miyares, who upset incumbent Democrat Mark Herring for attorney general. The GOP also took control of the Virginia House of Delegates.
The GOP sweep comes roughly a year after Biden won the state by 10 points. Democrats across the state faced backlash over parents’ outrage at progressive curriculum and policies in schools.
In New Jersey, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy held off GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli. the candidates were separated by about 30,000 votes by Thursday morning with 90% of precincts reporting. Ciattarelli was boosted by a surge in GOP turnout in the Garden State, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 1 million.
Biden’s and Harris’ predictions are likely to prove prescient if Republicans are able to build off the momentum from their Virginia sweep and strong showing in New Jersey. The GOP is set up to retake Congress in 2022, according to experts.
“Needless to say, tonight’s results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022,” tweeted Dave Wasserman, the Cook Political Report’s House editor.
Soon after Youngkin was declared the winner in the Virginia gubernatorial race, Republicans began outlining their election strategy for 2022 based off of Youngkin’s campaign. The House Republican Study Committee began circulating a memo emphasizing the concerns of parents, ending COVID-19 mandates, combating rising crime by supporting police, and fighting rising inflation.