Fears of a “Cyber Pearl Harbor” that have been pre-occupying US cybersecurity experts for years have become especially acute, as Putin raises the ante in a potential deadly showdown with the US over Ukraine. Last week, Homeland Security alerted Americans that Putin is readying a cyber strike on US homeland. The potential non-kinetic attack may, as the DHS advisory warned, cause disruptions to public safety. Here’s why the Kremlin chose a cyber-strike to signal to Washington to stay out of Ukraine, on which Putin wants to impose his version of the Monroe Doctrine.
Russia believes cyber warfare is an effective way to weaken the Americans’ will to support their leaders decisions to intervene in conflicts on Russia’s periphery. On his orders, Putin’s strategists developed a sophisticated doctrine called “information confrontation” (информационное противоборство). This concept envisions a combination of technical cyber intrusions into the adversary’s computer systems — with the intent to disrupt operations, steal secrets, and corrupt or destroy data — and disinformation intended to manipulate the population’s opinion. Moscow believes cyber warfare can serve as a potent non-kinetic tool that can be used to destabilize an opponent’s society, without triggering his military response, and also as a weapon, capable of plunging an entire country into darkness, when war is unavoidable.
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