There are 34 days to go until the 2026 midterm elections. Prognosticators are predicting a blue wave, but Republicans are using their massive cash advantage to try and stem the tide. With nearly a dozen close Senate races, a razor-thin House margin, and most of America’s governor’s mansions at stake, here are the latest polls, storylines, and campaign trail notables you need to know about.
The Latest Polls
Democrats hold a strong advantage on the generic ballot and lead in key Senate battlegrounds nationwide. President Trump is hoping to defy political history, but the lingering conflict with Iran and high gas prices are souring voters on the GOP across the country, including traditionally red-leaning states.
Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the U.S. Senate and are defending vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and struggling to gain the edge in seats held by Democrats. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has long defied the odds and the polling, trails Democrat Troy Jackson by less than a point on average, while a New York Times/Siena poll released last week showed Collins up three points.
Down South, the numbers look more ominous for the GOP. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) leads Republican nominee Michael Whatley by 8.4 points to replace the retiring Thom Tillis in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has struggled to gain traction against the well-known former governor. It’s a similar story in Georgia, where incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff holds an 8-point lead against Trump-endorsed Mike Collins.
“It’s pretty dire circumstances in both those states,” conservative political consultant Ryan Girdusky said in an interview with The Daily Wire, pointing to the Iran conflict and inflation. “And it’s not likely that the Republicans will manage to carry either one of them in November, and that’s bad for the GOP, but that’s just the facts on the ground.”
To the dismay of Republicans everywhere, Texas could flip blue for the first time in decades. Democrat James Talarico holds a roughly three-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX), according to the polling average. Paxton himself has called Texas “truly a battleground state.” But an avalanche of GOP spending, coupled with a flurry of Daily Wire exclusives poking holes in Talarico’s so-called political transformation, could put his narrow advantage in jeopardy.
Moving to the heartland, Ohio and Iowa — two states that have shifted sharply to the right in the Trump era — are showing signs of snapping back toward the political center. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who voters ousted two years ago, is staging an insurgent comeback bid against GOP Sen. Jon Husted. Polls give the longtime politician a nearly 4-point advantage as voters fume over gas prices and the growth of data centers.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson is clinging to a razor-thin 0.5-point lead over Democrat Josh Turek. The GOP hopes a recent presidential announcement on a steel plant can boost the Republican ticket. To the north in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed maintains a 3.3-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers. The Republican hasn’t led in a single poll since early September.
Way out west in Alaska, incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola. The former congresswoman, fresh off a blistering New York Times profile examining her temperament, holds a slim two-point lead.
Polling firm Trafalgar also released a slew of polls over the past week. Most notably, one survey found Darline Graham (R-SC) struggling to resonate with South Carolina voters, showing her just one point ahead of her Democratic rival. The RCP polling average has Graham ahead by just 2.6 points.
Candidate Moves
Talarico Tapes — Over the past two weeks, The Daily Wire has extensively covered James Talarico’s misleading campaign to peel off moderate voters in the Lone Star State. On Tuesday, The Daily Wire published video of the Democrat admitting that his views on transgender issues “haven’t changed,” just days after he told Fox News that he would oppose transgender athletes competing in girls’ sports if their participation threatened safety and fairness.
Previously, The Daily Wire published undercover footage of Rev. Babs Miller, a lesbian minister at Talarico’s longtime Austin church, who suggested that his media-driven shift was a political stunt. Miller, who serves as a minister at St. Andrew’s Presbyterian Church, was caught agreeing with Talarico’s declaration that “God is nonbinary” before saying he was receiving political advice from national party consultants to change his public positions.
“I can guarantee you that once he gets elected, he’ll change his tune back to where he was,” Miller said.
In separate undercover footage obtained by The Daily Wire, the lesbian minister also doubted whether Jesus ever existed, rejected the virgin birth, and said she believed Christ “didn’t die to save our sins.” Miller’s comments came as Talarico repeatedly invokes his unconventional views of Christianity to appeal to voters in the Bible Belt’s largest state.
Speaking to an undercover journalist, Miller said she believes the virgin birth was fabricated and compared her approach to religion to a 12-step program: “Take what you want and leave the rest.”
“Mary and the Virgin Birth comes out of the pagan belief that the gods came down and impregnated people,” Miller told the undercover journalist. “We have no way of knowing if Jesus really existed any more than we have of knowing that the original Buddha ever existed. And whether or not Jesus existed doesn’t really matter to me.”
The video went viral online, racking up millions of views and drawing the condemnation of one Texas evangelical pastor who told Babs: “Get the hell out of a pulpit.” Since then, Talarico has doubled down on his religious rhetoric. On Sunday, Talarico said he fights for universal health care and takes on what he calls a “corrupt system” on “biblical grounds.”
Marshall Makes His Move — Texas isn’t the only red state where Christianity is becoming a political flashpoint and giving Republicans heartburn. In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) appears increasingly concerned about his reelection race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton. Last week, Marshall raised eyebrows with an X post criticizing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” Marshall said. “I’m closely following what’s happening in SW Kansas and have been in direct contact with Secretary Mullin and local law enforcement as ICE executes warrants in order to keep Kansans safe.”
Adding to the concern, Marshall’s Republican primary opponent Arch Naramore, who won more than 20 percent of the vote, has endorsed his democratic rival as polls show a tightening race.
Pottymouth Peltola — A bombshell New York Times report on Mary Peltola (D-AK) is apparently redefining the language — and the trigger words — the Left is willing to tolerate.
Former Obama speechwriter and Pod Save America host Jon Lovett said Sunday that gay slurs — including “f*ggot” and “c*m guzzling f*g” — can be overlooked if it means Democrats win control of the Senate.
“Do I think it’s great if a boss calls an employee a f*ggot? No, but I think the Senate’s more important,” Lovett said. “But now we’re like, no, the stakes are too high, and we’ve just been through too many rounds of this.”
The Times also cited former staffers who alleged that Peltola wished a Planned Parenthood leader would die from a “botched abortion.”
“There’s not a gay guy from Austin to underneath the docks in Provincetown who wouldn’t be happily called a cm guzzling fggot to have a Democratic Senate — just a mincing butt-munching ass pirate,” Lovett continued. “Go find the gayest f*cking person you can find in the … state of Texas, in the state of Alaska, have [Peltola] kneel, and have a sword go to both sides and say, ‘You may call us whatever the f*ck you want, Mary Peltola, if you win this seat.”
One Story To Watch
Republicans hope the party’s massive spending advantage will help close the gap in the polls, but they also have the face of the party still to deploy. With bleak numbers dominating the headlines, spending and campaign stops from surrogates can offer some of the biggest clues on where things really stand.
That’s why some have noted President Trump plans to hit the stump in deep-red territory, including Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nebraska.
“They all want me to go. I’m one person. They all want me to go campaign. I’m starting in about two days. I’m starting a literally a 32-day tour,” Trump said at the White House Tuesday. “I’m going to Texas. I’m going to Ohio. I’m going to all different places.”
GOP officials believe the stops in southern Oklahoma and Alabama can serve a broader purpose beyond the states themselves. Durant, Oklahoma, sits on the Texas border and within the Dallas-Fort Worth media market, while Mobile is near Florida’s Panhandle. Republicans say the rallies can boost rural turnout while reaching voters and media markets beyond the immediate venues.
Skeptics, however, say the president’s travel schedule is a five-alarm fire for the GOP. And they’ve noted that Vice President JD Vance has had recent events scheduled in Kansas, Iowa, and Texas.
“The problem is that the fires are everywhere right now,” one Republican donor told Politico.
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