All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the line Tuesday. Republicans are clinging to a 218-214 majority that virtually all pollsters and forecasters expect to be lost. Still, the margin and the makeup of that swing will play a key role in the final two years of the Trump presidency. Here are the 12 most important, and interesting, House races you should keep an eye on Tuesday:
Texas Redistricting
After President Trump made historic gains with Latino voters and won Texas by big margins, state Republicans moved to redraw congressional districts to strengthen the party’s advantage in the U.S. House. But as polls suggest Hispanic support for Republicans has softened since 2024, some GOP officials fear the redistricting effort could backfire, undermining the party’s chances of picking up seats.
In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning singer, leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in most polls. The district stretches across South Texas, running from western Hidalgo County to eastern Guadalupe County. Despite its shifting political landscape, the district moved sharply toward Republicans in recent elections: President Trump carried it by 18 points in 2024, compared with a three-point margin in 2020, while De La Cruz won re-election by 14 points, according to Cook Political Report.
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In Texas’ 35th Congressional District, Republican Carlos De La Cruz leads Democrat Johnny Garcia, 48% to 47%, in an October poll. Carlos De La Cruz is the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Redrawn in 2025, the district now encompasses the eastern and southern sides of San Antonio. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
In Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, Republican Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun YouTuber, holds an advantage against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. The sprawling district stretches from the San Antonio area west toward El Paso, encompassing a broad swath of West and South Texas. Trump won the district in 2024, and Cook Political Report rates the contest as Lean Republican.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State features three closely watched contests, with recent polling showing Democratic challengers narrowly ahead or tied.
In PA-08, the state’s northeast corner, Democrat Paige Cognetti leads Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan, 51% to 46%, according to a New York Times poll of likely voters. The freshman Republican has faced scrutiny over his stock trades and personal wealth.
In PA-01, Democrat Bob Harvie leads Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick, 48% to 46%, according to the polling. Fitzpatrick, a moderate unafraid to buck President Trump, has built a significant political profile that extends beyond the traditional Republican base in his swing suburban district.
The Cook Political Report ranks PA-08 as a tossup, PA-10 as Lean Democrat, and PA-01 as Lean Republican.
New York and New Jersey
In New York’s 17th Congressional District, Democrat Cait Conley leads Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, 48% to 46%, in an Emerson College poll conducted in September. The two-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error in a race Republicans need to hold to keep the majority. Lawler has remained relatively popular in the northern suburban district that narrowly voted for Kamala Harris, and is running heavily on increasing the SALT tax deduction, which benefits heavily taxed New Yorkers.
In New Jersey’s 7th District, Democrat Rebecca Bennett leads Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. in available polling. Kean has struggled to regain footing after he infamously vanished for four months amid an undisclosed depression diagnosis.
Cook ranks NY-17 as a tossup and NJ-07 as Lean Democrat.
California
In California’s 22nd District, Democrat Randy Villegas is locked in a toss-up race with Republican incumbent David Valadao. There’s no public polling available but early voting suggests Democrats are off to a head start. Valadao has distanced himself from the president, including voting to impeach him at the end of his first term. The district has historically leaned Republican, but its electorate includes a substantial Latino population in the Central Valley, which is continuing to sour on the Trump administration.
Ohio
In Ohio’s 7th Congressional District, which spans Cleveland’s southern suburbs and rural areas of north-central Ohio, Democrat Brian Poindexter is challenging Republican incumbent Max Miller. The district has a Republican-leaning presidential voting history, but Miller is struggling to pull ahead following domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife, which he denies. The allegations drew intense national attention and helped turn the race into a competitive contest, according to Cook.
Maine
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of rural northern and central Maine, including Bangor and surrounding communities, is an open-seat contest between Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage following Rep. Jared Golden’s decision not to seek re-election. Trump carried the district in 2024, making it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Recent polling suggests a close contest, though Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican.
Washington State
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, which stretches across southwestern Washington along the Oregon border, is a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces a competitive re-election challenge from Republican John Braun in a district that has leaned Republican in recent elections.
Perez has cultivated a political identity distinct from the national Democratic Party, appealing to working-class voters and emphasizing her willingness to break with party leadership. That approach has helped her win in a Republican-leaning district. In 2024, she held the seat by roughly 15,000 votes.
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