More than a million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections. By and large, the numbers continue to paint a bleak picture for the GOP, which is counting on a massive influx of cash and a large polling error to save its congressional power. With a 53-47 majority, Republicans cannot afford to lose more than three seats without losing their Senate majority. The GOP’s 218-214 House margin is just as tight, with dozens of seats across the country up for grabs. Here are the latest polls, storylines, and campaign trail notables you need to know about.
The Latest Polls
With less than a month to go, Democrats maintain a large advantage on the national congressional ballot even as several key Senate races remain tight.
The RealClearPolitics generic ballot average has Democrats leading Republicans 51.2% to 42.7%, an 8.5-point margin.
Since last week, GOP spending groups ditched North Carolina as former Gov. Roy Cooper builds a strong 9-point lead against former RNC chairman Michael Whatley. Instead, that money is being poured into Kansas to boost Sen. Roger Marshall, who is locked in a competitive, single-digit race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton.
Georgia looks like another state that could soon be triaged. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins by an average of 8 points, even as billionaire Rick Jackson flexes his wealth to build a consistent polling lead against former Atlanta Democratic Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the gubernatorial race.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico maintains a stubborn lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in what is shaping up to be the cycle’s marquee race. Republicans continue spending tens of millions to defend their Texas firewall, but a New York Times/Siena poll released over the weekend showing Talarico ahead 51% to 45% has many conservatives hitting the panic button.
In good news for the GOP, the Ohio Senate race has slightly tightened since last week. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47% to 44%, down a point from last week.
It’s a ball game in Maine. Democrat Troy Jackson holds a razor-thin 0.1-point advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 47.6% to 47.5%. Jackson’s viral boba clip and Collins’ Boston Red Sox ad assailing Sen. Chuck Schumer could be indicative of where the race is headed. Collins is notorious for overperforming her polls, giving Republicans reason to be bullish.
Iowa is another nail-biter. Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by less than a percentage point in the RCP average.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed maintains a stable 3.5-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers as national Democrats race to shore up key liberal constituencies. Former President Barack Obama is set to hit the campaign trail with El-Sayed later this month in Detroit.
And in Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48.8% to 47.0% in an infamously difficult state to poll, where the state’s ranked-choice voting system throws a wrench into predicting results.
Candidate Moves
Blue State Outliers — Former NBC Sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya is emerging as a star GOP recruit in a reliably blue state riddled with scandals and unpopular Democratic leadership. Polls show her within striking distance of defeating Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a far-left transgender advocate who has faced scrutiny over her record in the Tim Walz administration after the state was rocked by a sprawling Medicaid fraud scandal.
Flanagan has refused to debate and Tafoya is hammering the fraud message home, saying in one ad: “Peggy Flanagan deserves a pink slip, not a promotion: as your Senator, I’ll protect your tax dollars and make fraudsters pay!”
Way out West in Oregon, Republicans could flip the state’s governor’s mansion for the first time in decades as unpopular Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek struggles to defend her record. The Democrat hasn’t led in a single poll since February, according to The New York Times, as Republican Christine Drazan hopes to win in a rematch where she lost narrowly four years ago. It would be a shocking result in a state Kamala Harris won by more than 14 points in 2024.
Obama To Michigan — The Democratic Party is deploying former President Barack Obama to battleground Michigan. His visit is meant to boost Abdul El-Sayed and rally the state’s black voters, who overwhelmingly voted for his primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens. The October 24 event could help heal the wounds of a divisive primary that exposed deep divisions over Israel, and it is the latest barometer of what the Democratic establishment is willing to tolerate.
Paxton Tapes; Talarico MIA – Is Ken Paxton looking for a boogeyman? Two recent leaked audio recordings suggest so. Leaked audio obtained by The New York Times caught the Republican blaming the GOP midterm convention in Dallas for his sagging poll numbers. In a second clip obtained by Politico, he claimed DC is running his statewide campaign.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign…it’s all coming — you know — from DC,” Paxton is heard saying. “It is a challenge.”
Talarico’s campaign responded by calling Paxton a “puppet.” But the Democrat is facing his own trove of negative opposition research. CNN uncovered past comments from 2020 in which Talarico argued that defunding the police should be a policy solution on the table.
“Our system of policing is deeply broken. We must replace it with something new and something better,” Talarico said. In June 2020, he also donated a couple thousand dollars to a group calling to defund law enforcement.
Meanwhile, questions are swirling around where James Talarico is. The Democrat’s campaign canceled a planned black voter outreach event Monday. On September 30, he appeared virtually for a U.S. Hispanic Business Council event in South Texas after testing positive for the flu. His campaign’s page doesn’t list any events with Talarico himself.
“If I was passing on this illness to somebody and got someone’s grandmother or someone’s baby sick, I couldn’t live with myself,” Talarico said on September 30. “So I thought the best thing to do was to put safety first and put everyone’s health first.”
Kansas In Play? – Beyond Texas, Kansas is suddenly giving Republicans serious anxiety. The Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC tied to Majority Leader John Thune, has shifted millions toward Sen. Roger Marshall’s reelection bid, pausing future spending in North Carolina and booking at least $8.2 million in Kansas.
One Marshall ad, which the National Republican Senatorial Committee posted on X, accuses his liberal megachurch pastor opponent of failing to report a church volunteer accused of molesting teenage boys and letting him return as a camp counselor. Adam Hamilton’s campaign called the spot a “desperate and shameful attack from a losing politician,” according to the New York Post.
One Story To Watch
As the saying goes, polls don’t decide elections — voters do. As politicos place their bets on what’s to come in November, more than a million Americans have already turned in their ballots. That number will rapidly increase as early voting begins in more states. Early voting numbers will offer the first clues about which voters are energized and which demographics are turning out. The data can give campaigns an early read on turnout patterns, helping candidates target their resources, adjust their messaging and make late pushes as Election Day approaches.
Over the weekend, President Trump, a longtime critic of early and mail-in voting, urged his supporters to vote early and bank their votes.
“So I’m not on the ballot, but pretend I am, because this is a big deal. This is the most important midterm I believe ever. We have communists, we have socialists, we have horrible people running on the other side. We have to win,” Trump said in an October 3 video message from the Oval Office.
“If your state has early voting, do not wait,” he added. “Vote early, vote by mail or vote in person on election day…”
Trump’s push comes as Democratic voting habits could be changing this election. A recent NBC News poll found that just 23% of registered Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, down from 34% in September 2024. Six years after the coronavirus pandemic drove a surge in mail-in voting, 36% of Democrats now plan to vote early in person, up from 30% at the same point in 2024, while another 36% expect to vote on Election Day.
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