The last Rasmussen Reports poll before the election regarding the Congressional races up for grabs has good news for the GOP: The Republican Party leads the Democrats by one point. The poll of likely voters found that 46% would choose the Republican candidate, while 45% would choose the Democrat. 3% of likely voters said they would choose another candidate while 6% were undecided.
Last week, Democrats led by three points, 47% to 44%. As Rasmussen reported, “Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.”
The latest poll was conducted between October 28 and November 1. Rasmussen points out that just before the November 2014 election, which gave the GOP control of the Senate and an increased majority in the House, the GOP’s lead in the Rasmussen Congressional poll was 43%-41%.
Groups preferring the GOP in the latest poll include men, people over the age of 40, whites, and minority voters other than the black community. Democrats lead among women, younger voters, and black voters.
The GOP has a 47-vote advantage in the House; the Democrats would need to win 24 seats to take control. The Democrats would need to win two more Senate seats to gain control of the Senate. The Rasmussen poll found that most voters approve of President Trump’s leadership; that’s good news for the GOP. Rasmussen notes, “Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the country is headed in the right direction. This compares to the mid- to high 20s for most weeks during President Obama's last year in office.”
More good news for the GOP: “Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans say they always vote in midterm elections, as do 71% of Democrats and 63% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.”
Brandon Morse of RedState notes:
While one point may not seem like much, two factors should be considered here. A solid lead was had and lost by the Democrats, which is obvious. However, not so obvious is the fact that Democrats tend to speak louder about their voting habits than Republicans do, possibly putting Republicans even higher than the Rasmussen poll indicates. Rasmussen points to the fact that in 2016, Democrats were very outspoken about their support for Hillary Clinton, making it seem like she was the surefire win with massive leads in the polls. However, Trump walked away with the victory against all odds.
Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics also had some possible good news for the GOP, noting, “There really are believable scenarios that don’t require Republicans to win districts that they have written off. Republicans have to catch some breaks, but they don’t have to catch breaks in ways that shock and surprise us. We can still assume that suburban districts move against them, which they almost certainly will. We can even include some surprising Democratic wins.”