The head pollster for CBS News, Anthony Salvanto, doesn’t think we’ll see a Blue Wave this November — and certainly not one close to the Red Wave of 2010.
Salvanto learned from the failure of polls to predict the 2016 election. He saw that the two polls that ended up being right — the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP — were tracking polls, so he designed one himself to use in 2018. Tracking polls differ from regular “horse race” polls in that they poll the same sample of people over and over to see if and how their views have changed over the campaign.
Salvano’s team is polling 5,700 voters in the 50 or 60 districts that could flip the House of Representatives and Senate into Democrat hands. So far, he doesn’t see much flipping.
“Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House,” the New York Post said in an article interviewing Salvanto.
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto told the Post. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.”
Republicans currently hold a 43-seat majority.
Salvanto also said he doesn’t “see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat,” despite several op-eds from “conservatives” telling the Right to switch parties.
Democrat hatred of President Donald Trump could be the thing that puts them over the edge, since Republicans typically vote at higher rates during the midterms. But opposing Trump can’t be all the Left offers.
“[V]oters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump,” Salvanto told the post. “They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the majority?’”
This is certainly encouraging news for Republicans, who earlier this week learned that the Cook Political Report now labels 37 GOP-held House races as “toss-ups.”