For all the talk about the possibility of the GOP losing control of the U.S. Senate to the Democrats in November, if the election were held today it would be the Democrats who would be in real trouble, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls. Five incumbent Senate Democrats would lose to Republican candidates; three have approval ratings under 50%.
Significantly, all five states where Democrats are in trouble show strong support for President Trump in the Axios/Survey Monkey polls. In West Virginia, where Trump’s approval sits at a whopping 65%, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin only garnered 43% of the vote, while a generic GOP challenger grabbed 52% of the vote.
In North Dakota, where Trump got a 60% approval rating, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp trailed a generic GOP candidate 47%-49%. In Montana, where Trump received a 58% approval rating, Democratic Senator Jon Tester got a bare 42% of the vote; a generic GOP candidate soared to 55%.
In Missouri, where Trump got a 55% approval rating; Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill trailed Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley by a huge margin, 42%-55%. And in Indiana, where Trump’s approval rating was 53%, Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly was down six points, 45%-51%, to a generic GOP candidate.
Other states have Democratic senators who are holding on, but barely; Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin holds a 49%-46% lead over a generic Republican; Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow holds a 49%-45% lead over a generic GOP candidate, and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown holds a 50%-45% lead over Ohio Congressman Jim Renacci.
Democrats need to pick up two seats in the Senate in addition to the 49 they now hold to win a majority; they are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Trump won in 2016.