Democratic North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp may be in serious trouble in the 2018 election: a new poll shows Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer, who decided in February to challenge Heitkamp, leading her 49%-44%.

As Roll Call reports, the poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group and commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, surveyed 500 likely registered voters between February 18-20. An interesting note: while both candidates were viewed favorably by an equivalent percentage of voters, Heitkamp with 54% and Cramer with 53%, there was a significant difference in those viewing the candidates unfavorably: 29% of respondents saw Cramer unfavorably but 38% of voters saw Heitkamp unfavorably.

Heitkamp’s numbers are dropping; last October she had a 60% favorable rating. The Tarrance Group has a solid record as a pollster: Nate Silver’s gave it an 83% accuracy rating.

Cramer served as an energy advisor to Donald Trump when he was running for president, preparing white papers on energy policy for Trump. He called for a small carbon tax to replace the Clean Power Plan.

One of Trump’s earliest supporters, Cramer told Trump in April 2016 that Trump should roll back a number of energy-sector regulations during the first 100 days of his presidency. Cramer said, "He liked that a lot.”

Heitkamp is the only Democrat holding a statewide seat in North Dakota.