It’s desperation time as campaigns take their final swings two weeks ahead of Election Day. Here’s the latest you need to know about the midterm elections. For more, check out The Daily Wire Election Hub.
Candidate Moves
Mama Acton Speaks Out — An ad featuring Donna Arthur, the estranged mother of Democrat Ohio Gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton, spontaneously appeared Monday night. In the ad, Arthur accuses her daughter of being a liar and encourages Ohioans to vote against her.
It’s not clear at the time of this publication what entity is behind the ad, which is already causing a firestorm in Ohio. Acton has said she grew up in an environment of abuse and neglect where she had to live with her mother in a tent. She left the custody of her mother around age 12. Some observers have questioned whether the ad will backfire on the Ramaswamy campaign if it is seen as an act of desperation.
Rogers Courts The Black Vote — Republican Mike Rogers is making an unprecedented push to win over Michigan’s black voters, according to Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who told Politico that Rogers is engaging the community “harder and more successfully” than any Republican she can remember.
Stevens’ remarks underscore growing concerns among Democrats that El-Sayed has yet to repair the divisions left by a bruising primary campaign. El-Sayed’s campaign tactics, association with Hasan Piker, and harsh criticism of Israel may have alienated key voting blocs as Rogers works to build a broader coalition.
Over the weekend, Rogers’ campaign released an ad featuring exclusively black voices criticizing El-Sayed’s focus on the Middle East. The ad frames El-Sayed’s obsession with Gaza as a sign he will abandon Michigan in Washington, with Rogers declaring: “He wants to represent Palestine. I want to represent Michigan.”
Still, Rogers faces an uphill battle in a traditionally blue state in an increasingly Democratic-friendly year. El-Sayed is hoping his left-wing populist platform will mobilize younger voters and progressive white voters to the polls.
Trump Campaign Blitz — President Donald Trump will be on the campaign trail every day this week, representing a remarkable effort to turn out his MAGA base across key battlegrounds and deep-red territory.
Trump’s campaign schedule:
- Monday: Park City, Kansas
- Tuesday: Greenville, North Carolina
- Wednesday: Clemson, South Carolina
- Thursday: Sioux City, Iowa
- Friday: Fort Myers, Florida
- Saturday: Macon, Georgia
- Sunday: St. Clair County, Michigan
Vice President JD Vance will also hit the trail, with visits planned for:
- Monday: Hendersonville, North Carolina
- Wednesday: Cincinnati, Ohio
- Thursday: North Platte, Nebraska
Over the weekend, Vance held a town hall with CBS where he said he might not run for the presidency in 2028.
“Of course there’s a chance!” Vance told CBS’s Tony Dokoupil. “Yeah, man, we’ve got four little kids, my wife has never loved politics. She loves public service. I think you know you can do a lot of good in this job, and I’ve tried to do as much good as possible.”
The Christian Vote — Republicans are increasingly worried that soft turnout among conservative evangelicals could cost them winnable races nationwide this November, giving Democrats an opening to pull off upsets in deep-red territory.
Nowhere is that concern more acute than in Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton is struggling to pull ahead of Democrat James Talarico, a progressive Presbyterian who has described God as “non-binary” and said Jesus is not the only way to God.
Dr. Robert Jeffress, senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Dallas, said the November ballot represents a choice between “the lesser of two evils” and described the high-stakes Senate race as a jump ball.
“Well, to be honest, I’m seeing more concern this time around than I have in any other recent election. Conservative Christians are troubled by Ken Paxton’s past, and I think they’re weighing right now whether they’re going to vote for the lesser of two evils or just stay at home,” Jeffress said in an interview with The Daily Wire.
“A few weeks ago, I was concerned about the number of people going to stay at home. I’m seeing a little shift in that. I think more are drifting toward Paxton now, but I think right now it’s a toss-up,” he added.
Polling shows white evangelicals oppose Talarico the most. Still, some Republicans fear party leaders are doing too little to mobilize one of the GOP’s most reliable voting blocs.
A Republican strategist familiar with Texas told The Daily Wire that the GOP no longer targets individual demographic groups as aggressively as it once did, instead seeking to reach voters broadly through its messaging.
White evangelicals are the only religious group of registered voters in which a majority favors Republican House candidates, according to new Pew Research data released Tuesday. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of white evangelicals say they would vote for the Republican in their district if the election were held today, compared with just 12% who would back the Democrat.
White Catholic voters also favor Republicans over Democrats in their districts, though by a narrower margin of 50% to 32%. Other religious groups are roughly split or favor Democrats, while atheists and agnostics overwhelmingly back Democrats.
The Latest Polls
Democrats hold a substantial 8.3-point lead on the national congressional ballot, 50.7% to 42.4%, a margin reflected in some key battlegrounds even as other races remain far more competitive.
North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley by nearly 10 points in the RealClearPolitics average, 50.7% to 41.1%. The race represents a major Democratic pickup opportunity. Republicans have pulled back resources, and Whatley’s campaign has gone dark on television despite President Trump’s visit to the state this week.
Georgia: The Peach State’s Senate race appears increasingly difficult for Republicans. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins by nine points, 52% to 43%, in the polling average. The gubernatorial contest is tighter, with billionaire Rick Jackson holding a narrow lead over former Atlanta Democratic Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Reports of strong Black turnout, coupled with weaker get-out-the-vote efforts in rural areas, point to the potential for historic ticket-splitting in a state where the Senate and governor’s races could produce sharply different outcomes.
Kansas: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall holds a narrow advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton, 46.0% to 45.7%, in the RCP average. The race is effectively tied, leaving Marshall vulnerable in a state Republicans would normally expect to hold.
The Daily Wire uncovered a 2018 video last week of Hamilton, a liberal Methodist pastor, urging his mostly white congregation to declare “black lives matter” and saying it’s difficult to preach against racism in rural America.
Texas: Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow two-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 48.5% to 46.3%. Individual polls have varied, with some showing a dead heat or a slim Paxton advantage. Early voting began Monday across the Lone Star State, as both campaigns blitz the campaign trail and airwaves in a final push to win over voters.
Ohio: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 2.8 points, 47.4% to 44.6%. The race has remained relatively steady despite repeated visits from the White House, as Republicans pivot to an anti-socialist message amid concerns about lagging GOP turnout in a state President Trump won three times.
“I wouldn’t like that,” said Nikki Cvetkovic, 77, after opening her door in a working-class suburb of Youngstown and examining a pamphlet featuring Brown alongside the words “SOCIALISM THREATENS YOUR FREEDOM.” Cvetkovic said she planned to vote for Husted, according to The New York Times.
Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow 1.6-point lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Jackson faced backlash last week after telling Collins to “shut up” when a protester interrupted their final debate. The remark went viral, drawing scrutiny from mainstream media, including CNN, which pressed Jackson on the comment. He doubled down, prompting a Collins-aligned group to launch an attack ad against him.
“Troy Jackson is a creep. We can’t trust him,” the 30-second spot says.
Former West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is also set to campaign for Collins, underscoring their relationship and Collins’ longstanding bipartisan appeal.
Iowa: The race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is effectively tied, with individual polls showing mixed results and some giving Hinson a narrow advantage. In recent days, political journalist and commentator Mark Halperin has said Republicans are feeling more optimistic about the contest, which is shaping up to be a must-win seat for the GOP to retain control.
Michigan: Polling shows a tightening race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed holds a narrowing 2.6-point lead, 48.1% to 45.5%. National Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, have stepped up efforts to shore up support among key constituencies, particularly black voters, as El-Sayed’s foreign ties draw increasing scrutiny from voters and the national media.
Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2.5 points in the RCP average, 49.5% to 47.0%. The race remains highly competitive in a state where polling can be difficult. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty and could mean the final outcome is not determined on Election Night.
One Story to Watch: Could The Polls Be Wrong?
Will The Polls Be Wrong? — If polls hold and prove accurate, Democrats could be on the cusp of the type of electoral tsunami the mainstream media has been predicting. But in the Trump era, surveys have repeatedly missed the mark, sometimes dramatically. In 2016, 2020 and 2024, pollsters repeatedly undercounted GOP support — a narrative national Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, have leaned on in recent weeks. However, they’ve been more accurate in midterm elections when Trump is not on the ballot.
“I’m telling you the polling is wrong,” Johnson (R-LA) said during an interview on Fox News. “They have a lot of polling organizations right now acknowledging that they’re under-sampling Republicans because Republicans don’t want to respond to polls anymore.”
But what do the data gurus say? CNN’s Harry Enten recently noted that since 1998, final Senate polling aggregates have missed the mark by nearly four points on average. He emphasized that polls offer snapshots in time, not predictions, and even a modest polling error this cycle could dramatically reshape the Senate map.
“Polls are a tool. Poll aggregates are a tool. When you have all of these close races, you have to keep this in mind… Those races on the last screen are well within that average error rate, and that is why the Senate at this point is too close to call if these poll averages hold,” Enten said.
“And this to me is the big siren warning sign for Democrats right here, because I know you feel like it’s Lucy in the football. You’ve seen yourselves ahead before, and then Election Day the votes are cast and counted, and the Republicans come out ahead,” he added. “If, in fact, Republicans outperform the averages by 3.75 points, look at this… Republicans would get 52 seats.”
.png)
.png)
