Former President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump</a> has pulled ahead of Vice President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/kamala-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kamala Harris</a> in the White House race across six key swing states, one betting market announced on Wednesday, less than three weeks out from Election Day.
<a href="https://polymarket.com/elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polymarket</a> showed Trump leading Harris 68%-32% in Arizona, where 11 electoral votes are at stake; 64%-36% in Georgia, where 16 electoral votes are at stake; and 59%-41% in Pennsylvania, where 19 electoral votes are at stake.
The site also showed Trump above Harris 55%-45% in Michigan, where 15 electoral votes are at stake; 54%-46% in Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are at stake; and 51%-49% in Nevada, where six electoral votes are at stake.
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Trump now has the lead in every swing state. <a href="https://t.co/ie7NWK4zYn">pic.twitter.com/ie7NWK4zYn</a>
&mdash; Polymarket (@Polymarket) <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/1846596872418329083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 16, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Harris was performing better than Trump in some of the states, including Wisconsin and Nevada, just days ago. There is still time for the odds to shift back and forth as the candidates and their allies conduct a final campaign blitz.
Polymarket&#8217;s overall forecast on Wednesday showed that Trump was ahead of Harris 58.5%-41.3%. Trump&#8217;s advantage has grown since the beginning of October, when the betting market showed him and Harris virtually tied.
<a href="https://www.amiracist.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amiracist.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1729077615157000&amp;usg=AOvVaw17Kprl74oE9DYOLREdiBPU">MATT WALSH’S ‘AM I RACIST?’ COMING TO DAILYWIRE+ OCT. 28</a>
Harris, who became the Democrats&#8217; presidential nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race over the summer, has begun to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/foxs-bret-baier-to-interview-kamala" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ramp up</a> her interview schedule after largely ducking the press early in her campaign.
Despite relatively friendly interviews with ABC’s “The View,” late-night host Stephen Colbert on CBS, and others, Harris has <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/media-blitz-harris-broadens-reach-struggles-differentiate-biden/story?id=114619961" target="_blank" rel="noopener">struggled</a> to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7085cb60-6b19-49f6-821b-2fde19f980a6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">answer</a> how she differs from Biden and prove that she does not need to <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/jd-vance-explains-why-he-doesnt-use-a-teleprompter-kamala-hardest-hit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lean on</a> a teleprompter.
Several other betting markets also show Trump ahead of Harris in the 2024 White House race. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which includes Polymarket and some competitors, <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shows</a> Trump leading Harris 57.7%-41.3%.
Although Trump is <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surging</a> ahead in betting markets, polls still indicate <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-emerson-poll-sucks-the-joy-right-out-of-kamalas-campaign" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a close race</a> between him and Harris. RCP&#8217;s <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average</a> for national polls show Harris ahead 49.2%-47.5% and Trump leading 48.3%-47.6% in battleground states.
Polymarket showed Harris as favored to win the popular vote, with a 64%-36% advantage over Trump. It also showed a 79% chance of Republicans taking over the Senate and 55% odds of the Democrats winning control of the House.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/market-very-convinced-trump-is-going-to-win-billionaire-investor-says" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on Wednesday the overall market — in which multiple stock indices rose to record highs this week — anticipates Trump to be victorious.
“In the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win,” he told Bloomberg. &#8220;You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT, his social media company.&#8221;

Donald Trump

Betting Market Shows Trump Leading Harris In 6 Swing States

2024 Election

betting

Elections

Kamala Harris

Politics

Vice President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/kamala-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kamala Harris</a>, if tradition holds, should be seeing a bump in her poll numbers coming out of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), which will wrap up on Thursday evening as she officially accepts the 2024 presidential nomination from her party. But even as the final hours of the convention tick by, it&#8217;s her Republican opponent — former President Donald Trump — who appears to be surging.
According to a <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-pulls-ahead-harris-betting-market-amid-dem-convention" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> from Fox Business, Trump received a boost on at least two betting sites, surging past Harris on Polymarket and coming up just short of surpassing her on BetUS.
As of Wednesday, Polymarket predicted a 52% chance that Trump would come out ahead in the 2024 presidential election — up six points from the 46% chance they gave him one week prior. Harris&#8217; odds, in the same time period — despite the fact that her convention was in full swing — dropped from 51% to 47%.
On BetUS, Trump was given a 52.38% chance to Harris&#8217; 54.55% — and he appeared to still be making headway.
According to the report, BetUS public relations director Tim Williams had a few ideas as to what might be giving Trump such a boost — from rumors of a potential endorsement from independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the latest jobs numbers.
&#8220;My pure speculation might be that the betting public believes that having to revise down payroll growth by 818,000 jobs — that’s 818,000 fewer jobs than reported earlier — could hurt Harris,&#8221; he told Fox Business, noting that the Biden-Harris administration had been boasting about creating nearly a million jobs that did not actually exist.
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Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane noted that media scrutiny over Harris&#8217; economic policy proposals — which had been panned by the Right and the Left — could also account for her slipping in the betting markets.
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Model update:
Trump 52.5% 
Harris 40.3%
Still some uncertainty because of RFK decision and time until the election.
Significant market moves in the past week. Likely a combination of: 
1. Harris releasing economic policies (unpopular) 
2. More Harris media exposure. 
3. RFK… <a href="https://t.co/x91x6GAeXR">pic.twitter.com/x91x6GAeXR</a>
— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) <a href="https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1826325787105997200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2024</a></blockquote>
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&#8220;I&#8217;m not aware of anything new that&#8217;s happened on Trump&#8217;s front in the past week that would warrant him coming back in any kind of drastic fashion,&#8221; Crane told Fox Business. &#8220;I think that the most obvious things that I see is that Harris has released some economic proposals, and she&#8217;s answered a few questions more than before. And maybe those haven&#8217;t been so great for her.&#8221;
Clay Travis argued that the boost might be the result of a rumored RFK endorsement, saying, &#8220;As the third night of the DNC drags on, Trump has taken a 7% point lead in the gambling markets, moving from -10 to +7 in a few days, a pretty seismic 17% swing. RFK, Jr (potentially) endorsing him has stolen the DNC narrative.&#8221;
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As the third night of the DNC drags on, Trump has taken a 7% point lead in the gambling markets, moving from -10 to +7 in a few days, a pretty seismic 17% swing. RFK, Jr (potentially) endorsing him has stolen the DNC narrative. <a href="https://t.co/sZ8klV1QHd">pic.twitter.com/sZ8klV1QHd</a>
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) <a href="https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1826453615088672936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 22, 2024</a></blockquote>
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GOP Presidential Candidate Donald Trump Holds Campaign Rally In Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania

It May Be Kamala’s Convention, But Trump Is Getting The Surge

It May Be Kamala's Convention, But Trump Is Getting The Surge

The fallout from the presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden has catalyzed bettors to hedge their bets on whether Biden or Vice President <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/topic/kamala-harris" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kamala Harris</a> will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
On Wednesday, the prediction market platform Polymarket showed bettors giving Biden a 49% chance of becoming the nominee compared to a 35% chance for Harris; last Thursday, before the debate, Biden was shown at 90% assured before he plummeted after his disastrous performance. Harris’ chance at becoming the nominee was at a miniscule 1% before the debate, according to Polymarket, Forbes <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/07/03/bookmakers-put-their-money-on-kamala-harris-as-bidens-odds-tank-in-betting-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a>.
Another prediction market platform, PredictIt, showed Biden with a 42-38 cent lead (a 4% gain, as cents are equivalent to percentages on the site) over Harris on Wednesday; at one point earlier in the week, the platform actually showed Harris clinging to a 1% lead.
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All hail president Kamala <a href="https://t.co/cNXus4s3UE">pic.twitter.com/cNXus4s3UE</a>
&mdash; zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href="https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1808469354905809218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 3, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Additionally, on Wednesday, PredictIt showed Trump with a 59-23 cent lead over Harris and a 59-20 cent lead over Biden.
<div id="attachment_758623" style="width: 305px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-758623" class="size-medium wp-image-758623" src="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/jjj-295x300.jpg" alt="" width="295" height="300" srcset="https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/jjj-295x300.jpg 295w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/jjj-566x576.jpg 566w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/jjj-768x782.jpg 768w, https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2024/07/jjj.jpg 1240w" sizes="(max-width: 295px) 100vw, 295px" />screenshot</div>
On Tuesday, Texas Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first Democratic member of the House to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4751939-lloyd-doggett-biden-withdraw-presidential-race/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">call for Biden to step down</a>.
“President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump. I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not,” Doggett stated. “Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump’s many lies. &#8230; I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw.”
“While much of his work has been transformational, he pledged to be transitional,” Doggett continued. “He has the opportunity to encourage a new generation of leaders from whom a nominee can be chosen to unite our country through an open, democratic process. My decision to make these strong reservations public is not done lightly nor does it in any way diminish my respect for all that President Biden has achieved. &#8230; Recognizing that, unlike Trump, President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country, not himself, I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw.”
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In 1968, Democrat President Lyndon Johnson withdrew after various events in the primary season. He squeaked out a narrow victory in the New Hampshire primary, 48-42%, over anti-war candidate Senator Eugene McCarthy on March 12, then saw Senator Robert F. Kennedy announce his candidacy four days later. On March 31, Johnson announced he was not seeking his party’s nomination for president.

President Biden Holds Campaign Rally In Philadelphia

Betting Markets Show Kamala Running Neck-And-Neck With Biden For Nomination

Joe Biden

Presidential nomination

Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is the solid frontrunner to win the 2024 presidential election, according to one betting site that&#8217;s keeping running odds on the race.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has dropped in the odds, and Vice President Kamala Harris has plunged to just a 4.8% probability of winning should she somehow secure the Democratic Party&#8217;s nomination.
DeSantis, who has not announced whether he&#8217;ll seek the White House, has nearly a one in three chance, standing at 30.8%, according to the projections.
Following the 2022 midterms in November and Trump&#8217;s official announcement that he would seek the 2024 Republican nomination, he held the No. 2 position. But Trump has been embroiled in a swamp of controversy ever since. &#8220;As of today, Trump&#8217;s odds have decreased to 20%,&#8221; the betting site Empire Stakes <a href="https://www.empirestakes.com/ny-sports-betting/presidential-election-odds">reports</a>.
<a class="c-link" tabindex="-1" href="https://get.dailywire.com/subscribe/plus?utm_campaign=dwplus&amp;utm_medium=editorial&amp;utm_source=dwsite&amp;cid=dwplus&amp;mid=z&amp;xid=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="https://get.dailywire.com/subscribe/plus?utm_campaign=dwplus&amp;utm_medium=editorial&amp;utm_source=dwsite&amp;cid=dwplus&amp;mid=z&amp;xid=0" data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-remove-tab-index="true">TIRED OF THE LEGACY MEDIA&#8217;S BIAS CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE AND OBSCURING THE TRUTH? JOIN US AND SAVE 30%.</a>
&#8220;This puts him in third place behind current President Joe Biden, who gained 2.2% and is now 2nd most likely to be re-elected in 2024,&#8221; the site said.
That&#8217;s a big change since July when Biden was in third.
“Biden’s crushed approval ratings and worsening betting odds are causing Democrats to wonder if he is the right figure to take on Trump in 2024,” Joe Short of <a href="https://www.gambling.com/us">Gambling</a>.com <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/bookies-biden-now-third-place-in-the-odds-to-win-2024-election">told</a> The Daily Wire then. “According to the Wall Street Journal, Democrats expect him to go for a second term at the age of 82, but they’re not sure he should.”
“To make matters even worse for Biden, he is now third favorite to win the 2024 US Presidential election, behind both Trump (3/1) and Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (4/1),” he said.
Short said that Biden initially appeared willing to cede power to his Vice President Kamala Harris after just one term, but she’s not faring too well to bookies, either. She has “floated way out to 12/1 with bet365 to be the next U.S. president. Evidently, punters and U.K. bookmakers are looking no further than Biden when it comes to Democratic names in 2024.”
But Harris&#8217; plunge in the odds is not that surprising. For the last several months, Democrats have been openly musing about her future, with some liberal news sites and party leaders saying she shouldn&#8217;t run in 2024 if Biden bails.
A September <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2022/09/28/democrats-believe-biden-should-run-2024-primary-harris/">survey</a> from Morning Consult found that just 28% of Democratic voters would vote for Harris in a Democratic presidential primary without Biden on the ballot, down from 33% in a poll last year.
And <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/kamala-harris-joe-biden-new-vp-2024.html">Slate</a> last month was the latest liberal site to come out against Harris.
&#8220;As Joe Biden weighs a run for re-election even as he becomes the first octogenarian U.S. president in history, he should think back on what it was like to watch the Harris campaign flame out,&#8221; Christina Cauterucci wrote.
&#8220;Harris, a proven dud of a presidential candidate who has done little to distinguish herself since is not a good choice for the Democrats’ top billing. For his second term, should he seek one (he shouldn’t!), Biden should tap someone else.”
The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to josephcurl@dailywire.com and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.

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Trump Drops To 3rd In Betting Odds For 2024, Now Trails Biden

Donald Trump Drops To 3rd In Betting Odds For 2024, Now Trails President Joe Biden

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Betting Market Shows Trump Leading Harris In 6 Swing States

It May Be Kamala’s Convention, But Trump Is Getting The Surge

Betting Markets Show Kamala Running Neck-And-Neck With Biden For Nomination

Trump Drops To 3rd In Betting Odds For 2024, Now Trails Biden