On this date a century ago, the United States declared war on Wilhelmine Germany, entering World War I. The war shaped the future of the world in unthinkable ways: the United States became the foremost guardian of Western civilization, Germany collapsed into the Weimar Republic and then Naziism, and the Russian Tsardom became the Soviet Union. All of the 20th century was launched by World War I.
Because President Woodrow Wilson rightly got America involved in World War I, he has received a fair bit of praise today. Arthur Herman of National Review, while acknowledging the serious flaws of Wilsonian idealism, writes, “Whatever else it was, America’s role in what was then the world’s bloodiest and most destructive war signaled the emergence of the US as the new arbiter of a new world order, one that would be built around America’s economic strength, military power, and moral authority…”
David Frum of The Atlantic writes, “The question confronting the United States in 1917 was the same question that confronted Americans in 1941, and again after World War II, and now again as China rises: Who will shape world order? The United States and its liberal democratic traditions? Or challengers impelled by aggressive authoritarian ideologies of one kind or another?”
All of this is true – and stopping the Kaiser-led Second Reich was a necessity, even if the allies failed after World War I to prevent the rise of Soviet Russia, preserve the Weimar Republic or stop the rebuilding of Germany under the Third Reich into an enormous war machine.
But it does neglect one problem with Wilson: Wilson’s original position.
Wilson did not begin as a starry-eyed interventionist. His campaign slogan in 1916 was “he kept us out of war.” Wilson issued a declaration of neutrality before Congress in 1914. And this, of course, affected German war calculations. But the United States quickly began shipping war materiel to its allies, Britain and France; the Germans attempted to blockade those shipments, resulting in the submarine warfare that eventually drew the United States into the war three years later.
What if Wilsonian isolationism had been supplanted by a sober warning to Germany that continued aggressive activity would have drawn American intervention – as indeed it eventually did, but only after Germany had driven Russia out of the war and strengthened its territorial holdings?
Wilson’s blindness on foreign policy didn’t stop at Germany. He initially opposed the rise of the Reds in Russia after the fall of the Tsar, but then did little to prevent their accession to power, stating that Russia would have to decide its leadership problems for itself. The result: the rise of the Nazis, World War II, and the Cold War.
In short, here’s the lesson of Wilson: clarity on foreign policy matters. And America’s worst wars often result from failure to identify America’s positions and articulate them in clear-cut fashion.
Most of the great foreign policy tragedies in American history have been due to lack of clarity. American isolationism after World War I cleared the path for the remilitarization of Germany and the outbreak of World War II. America’s strategy of graduated escalation, as new National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster wrote in his book Dereliction of Duty, failed to demonstrate the necessary mettle to the Viet Cong. America’s mixed signals in China led to the Korean War. Ambassadorial foolishness in Iraq helped precipitate the first Gulf War. Clintonian vacillation led Osama Bin Laden to believe the United States was a paper tiger. Obama’s pullout from Iraq led to the rise of ISIS.
And now, Obama’s mixed signals in Syria – followed by Trump’s mixed signals in Syria – have led to an untenable situation. When Obama drew his false red line in Syria, and after he handed power over to Russia in the aftermath of Bashar Assad’s violation of his red line, he gave the impetus for action to America’s enemies. Earlier this week, when the Trump administration clarified that they believed Assad should remain in power, they gave tacit permission to Assad to engage in massive human rights violations, and for Russia to continue supporting them.
Now, something terrible has happened – just as it has always happens after America purposefully lessens her role in the world.
There is no substitute for clarity in foreign policy. But now the Syrian question is complex. It involves sacrifice and risk. America could be drawn into a great power conflict with Russia; America could be facilitating more chaos in Syria.
One thing is obvious: Trump, like every president before him including Wilson, must now take a clear stand. But that’s precisely the thing he lacks.