With the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry picking up steam and the White House digging in, people’s outlook on the 2020 election is beginning to shift — at least it is in the gambling world.
Though he remains the favorite to win, again, oddsmakers show Trump’s chances slipping with the impeachment effort escalating. On the other side of the aisle, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is enjoying some significant positive movement, while former Vice President Joe Biden — who’s quickly becoming the former frontrunner — saw his chances drop sharply, and Sen. Bernie Sanders’ odds plummeted post-heart attack.
According to odds and sports betting line site OddsShark as of Tuesday, Trump’s odds dropped somewhat — from +110 to +125 — since the Democrats first announced their impeachment inquiry on Sept. 25. After falling from +110 to +120 the first week the inquiry was announced, Trump’s odds remained the same the following week before dropping to +125 this week as the impeachment battle ratcheted up on both sides.
Warren, meanwhile, is gaining momentum, her odds improving from +425 on Sept. 11 to +250 as of Oct. 8.
Biden, who was a little behind Warren on Sept. 11 at +500 is now sitting at +700.
The most dramatic movement was experienced by Sanders, who crashed from +900 on Sept. 11 to +2000 on Oct. 8.
Sanders’ plummet has moved entrepreneur Andrew Yang to third most likely to win among the Democrats at +1500.
OddsShark notes in its summary of the numbers that after “holding steady at +4000 to win the 2020 election, Hillary Clinton is off the board this week.”
Sports Betting Dime (SBD) presents similar numbers. The betting line site gives Trump slightly better odds: +110, which the site notes are “990 points better than his next closest competitor.” As of Oct. 10, Warren moved up to +230 from the previous week, similar to OddsShark’s listing. Biden is likewise way down at +700, Yang is again in a distant third at +1500, and Sanders’ odds are at a grim +2000. Though OddsShark shows Clinton officially off the board, SBD still gives her +2500 odds.
The shifting outlook on the 2020 election has been significantly impacted by the Democrats’ impeachment campaign. Recent polling shows momentum in favor of impeaching the president. A Fox News Poll released this week shows a dramatic increase in those saying they believe Trump should be impeached.
“A new high of 51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40 percent oppose impeachment altogether,” Fox News reported Thursday. “In July, 42 percent favored impeachment and removal, while 5 percent said impeach but don’t remove him, and 45 percent opposed impeachment.”
The survey found an increase in support for impeachment among all demographics since July: “up 11 points among Democrats, 5 points among Republicans and 3 among independents. Support also went up among some of Trump’s key constituencies, including white evangelical Christians (+5 points), white men without a college degree (+8), and rural whites (+10).”
Fox also breaks down the vote according to some key “swing counties,” and found that support for impeachment was up 10% from 42 to 52%.
Not all of those calling for his impeachment cite the Ukraine call as the reason: While 85% of Democrats are in favor of impeaching him, only 76% say the Ukraine call is impeachable.
Related: KNOWLES: An Impeachment In Search Of A Crime