On Friday, a surprising new Democratic primary poll was released by CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom that shows a new leader of the pack in the state of Iowa.
The new poll, which was conducted between January 2 – 8 on “3,131 active registered voters in Iowa, including 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers,” asked respondents to list their first and second choices for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The poll also includes a follow-up: “I’m going to read the list one more time, excluding any names you may have already mentioned. This time, please tell me if the person is someone you are actively considering or not.”
Iowa voters’ first choice among the Democratic candidates was Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 20%. Second place went to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 17%. Third place went to Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 16%, followed closely by former Vice President Joe Biden with 15%.
Aside from the 11% of voters who were “not sure,” the next two candidates were Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) with 6% and businessman Andrew Yang with 5%.
When asked to rank their second choice, respondents moved some folks around. Taking first place (in the second choice category) was Warren with 16%. Second place was Buttigieg with 15%. 13% of respondents had no second choice. Biden and Sanders tied for fourth place with 12% each.
Perhaps the most interesting and informative was the “actively consideration” category because it shows who still stands a chance even if they are lower in the primary rankings.
Tying for first place in the “actively considering” category were Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg with 29% each. Second place went to Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Joe Biden, each with 28%. Third place went to Klobuchar with 27%, fourth to Warren with 26%, fifth to Sanders with 23%, and sixth to billionaire Tom Steyer with 22%.
When the poll asked “likely Democratic caucusgoers” if their minds were made up or if they could still be persuaded to move to another candidate, 40% said that their mind was made up while 45% said that they could still be persuaded. In November, those numbers were 30% and 62%, respectively.
With this latest poll (as well as the accumulation of other recent polls), Sanders has dethroned Buttigieg from his perch atop the Iowa caucus candidate list – but just barely.
As of publication, the RealClearPolitics average for the Iowa Democratic caucus, which takes place on February 3, has Sanders in first place with 21.3%, Buttigieg in second with 21%, Biden in third with 17.7%, and Warren in fourth with 17%.
Sanders also leads in New Hampshire, which will vote second on February 11, with 21.5% to second-place Biden’s 18.8%, and third-place Buttigieg’s 18.3%.
Nevada and South Carolina, which vote February 22 and 29, respectively, are still strongly Biden country, and nationally, Biden still holds a commanding lead over all competitors with an RCP average of 29.3% to second-place Sanders’ 20.3%. Third and fourth place nationally belong to Warren (14.8%) and Buttigieg (7.5%).