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A Phoenix-based data firm is predicting that Arizona will flip to President Donald Trump after all ballots are counted, a switch that could determine the outcome of the presidential election.
Data Orbital, a data analytics and survey research firm based in Arizona’s capital, is predicting that a number of outstanding ballots across the state will give Trump the edge over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Arizona’s 11 electoral votes may be the deciding factor for whichever candidate wins the election.
NBC News Vaughn Hillyard provided a breakdown of rough estimates for the number of outstanding ballots yet to be counted in Arizona counties:
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: At least 250k
Santa Cruz: ~3k
Data Orbital concurred with the breakdown and said that because of the number of ballots out and where those ballots are coming from, projections show Trump with a good shot of overtaking Biden in the final count in Arizona.
“This breakdown is inline with what we are estimating and why we believe @realDonaldTrump will carry AZ. These ballots are heavily Republican and will break in his favor. We estimate about 500k outstanding ballots,” Data Orbital said on Twitter.
“The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump,” the data firm continued.
The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ
— Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 4, 2020
Trump and Biden are in close races in a number of battleground states in the Midwest and South. Biden appears to have Michigan, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. If those states do not change, and Arizona flips to Trump, the president would win re-election with 276 electoral votes. The final results in Nevada are up in the air, as well, though Biden is leading in that state, as well, according to The New York Times.
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs said earlier on Wednesday that she expected some change in the vote totals as counties continued to tabulate ballots and report those numbers to the state.
— KTAR News 92.3 (@KTAR923) November 4, 2020
This follows an error caught in Edison Research data that led some media companies and analysts to believe that Arizona’s results were much closer to being officially called. As The Daily Wire reported:
On Wednesday, a significant error was discovered that could affect the results of the presidential election in Arizona: Edison Research data, which major news organizations including The New York Times utilize to report voting results, reported that 98% of precincts in Arizona had been counted when in fact only 86% had been counted.
New York Times editor Patrick LaForge tweeted, “An error was found in the data feed from Edison Research (used by @nytimes and other news organizations) for Arizona results – 86 percent of ballots have ben counted, not 98%. NYT has not called the state for Biden, though he still leads.”