On Thursday evening, the latest WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University daily tracking poll for the state of New Hampshire shows support for 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg rapidly rising, with a 4% increase in just one day.
The poll, which is a “two-day rolling sample of 500 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters” with a 4.4% margin of error, had surveyors read out a list featuring the Democratic candidates for president, then ask who respondents “would vote for or lean toward at this point.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leads with 24% support, but Buttigieg comes in a very close second with 23% support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) ranks third with 13% support, and former Vice President Joe Biden lands in fourth with 11%.
11% of respondents were also “undecided.”
Buttigieg’s 23% is an approximate eight point jump from Tuesday, when he stood at 15% in the tracking poll. On Wednesday, the candidate stood at 18.6% support.
To put into context the speed at which Buttigieg’s poll numbers are rising, per this particular survey, on Monday, CBS Boston reported:
After a two-day sample of 500 likely voters, the survey found Sanders with 24% support, Biden with 18%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 13% and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 11%.
While Buttigieg’s 12-point surge doesn’t appear to have impacted support for Sanders or Warren, both of whom remain essentially unchanged at 24% and 13%, respectively, Biden hasn’t been so lucky, with the former vice president dropping seven points over the same time period.
The poll also asked: “Thinking about your first choice, is your mind firmly made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?”
While 55.1% of respondents said that their mind is “made up,” a staggering 43.3% said that they could change their minds “before the primary,” which takes place on Tuesday.
Buttigieg’s polling bump in this New Hampshire tracking poll is likely the result of the Iowa caucus debacle. The night of the caucus, numerous alleged errors prevented various precincts from reporting their vote tallies, bringing the night to a grinding halt.
That didn’t stop Buttigieg from declaring victory during a speech that very evening, telling his supporters in part:
What a night, because tonight, an improbable hope became an undeniable reality. So, we don’t know all the results, but we know, by the time it’s all said and done, Iowa, you have shocked the nation, because by all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.
On Tuesday, “CBS This Morning” host Gayle King asked Buttigieg if should have waited until the results were actually in prior to declaring victory.
Buttigieg spun, telling King:
Well, we have the results from our organization, and if you look at what we were able to do, what happened last night, the fact that this campaign was able to gather support in urban, suburban, and rural areas alike, in counties that Hillary Clinton won, counties that Donald Trump won, we are thrilled and absolutely consider that a victory.
This latest WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll, as well as two other recent polls out of New Hampshire, have Buttigieg firmly in second place in the state with 20% support, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Sanders remains in first place for now with 24.8% support.
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